LIVE intra day trading with Grey1 ( second leg)

[Grey1]

I am curious to know how people would have traded the evening session today (Tuesday 1st July). The 10 min Macci went OB at around 7.10pm. If you would have shorted the three stocks of SNDK, BHI and CCJ you would have been down 1% of your account before they would have made any profit.

How would others have played this ?


Paul

Paul,
Myself , Fibbo and Roger went short HUM , CAL FDX and WHR last night and I asked every body to cover few min after market opened because we knew the market was strong . we made a killing but it was not a clear cut analysis and I had doubt if it was correct to short Over night.

why was market strong ? Because we have weekly daily montly all OS in fact the most OS market since 2002.. so why did market go down ,, it had to go down to fill the short orders.

Now lets go back to your question ,,, I did say in seminar , many times that you get the market direction from 60 and 30 min and entry from 10 min, 5 min This is the principle and the back bone of our trading strategy.

60 and 30 min was way way OS and heading up to day and it simply would not be safe to short the market againt the higher time frames,, in fact i late traded LONG RIMM AND APPL .

Few other factors :--

All stocks are beaten to death and very very dificult to make $$$ from a short position ,, Taking a LONG position is against the market sentiment which means now a days traders should be way way careful . In fact you are better off not to trade on a day like this .

Iran has been in the NEWS all day to day and market has become very volatile which adds to risk element.

GM had a good result but to me this is just a make up on ugly face but market could do with an excuse to rally .

All in all , I am not any wiser than any of you as what is the best way to trade this market as i am a technical trader but there are too many NONE technical issues specially the IRAN and OIL price to skew my technical analysis.



Grey1

 

[leovirgo]

I am curious to know how people would have traded the evening session today (Tuesday 1st July). The 10 min Macci went OB at around 7.10pm. If you would have shorted the three stocks of SNDK, BHI and CCJ you would have been down 1% of your account before they would have made any profit.

How would others have played this ?


Paul

Paul,

If I may add my view..

There are a few Longs and Shorts today.
Longs MRK, GENZ, CELG, BRCM ( they are strong stocks in daily list ) at 5.30 as $INDU was O/S and not going any lower. Initially there are a few Short trades such as SNDK, GS etc also based on market cycle.

Please see my blog for details
LEOVIRGO : System Trading

 

[Trader333]

Hi All,

Thanks for your replies. I do have the 30min and 60min Macci on my INDU chart (as shown) so I was aware that they were turning from OS. As it turns out when I got a close to OB signal in the afternoon on the 10 Min Macci this made a comfortable 1% and had I held it would have made 2% but the 10 min Macci had become OS so I didn't hold it.

I agree that we need to be careful at the moment and was just curious how people were managing their trades.


Paul

 

[TheMoneyMachine]

Hi All,

Thanks for your replies. I do have the 30min and 60min Macci on my INDU chart (as shown) so I was aware that they were turning from OS. As it turns out when I got a close to OB signal in the afternoon on the 10 Min Macci this made a comfortable 1% and had I held it would have made 2% but the 10 min Macci had become OS so I didn't hold it.

I agree that we need to be careful at the moment and was just curious how people were managing their trades.


Paul

Hi Paul,

I also confirmed a short setup in the afternoon (approximately 16:00), the only caveat being that the 30min MACCI was extremely close to being in oversold territory and was flat as opposed to pointing downwards, also as you have already mentioned the 10min MACCI fell just short of overbought territory.

With reference to the potential setup at 19:10 i decided to omit it due to the 60min MACCI being in deep oversold territory.

Are you also implementing the scalping strategy based on Grey1's 'N Minute Change' indicator?

Kind regards

TMM

 

[Ultramarine]

Paul,
Myself , Fibbo and Roger went short HUM , CAL FDX and WHR last night and I asked every body to cover few min after market opened because we knew the market was strong . we made a killing but it was not a clear cut analysis and I had doubt if it was correct to short Over night.

why was market strong ? Because we have weekly daily montly all OS in fact the most OS market since 2002.. so why did market go down ,, it had to go down to fill the short orders.

Now lets go back to your question ,,, I did say in seminar , many times that you get the market direction from 60 and 30 min and entry from 10 min, 5 min This is the principle and the back bone of our trading strategy.

60 and 30 min was way way OS and heading up to day and it simply would not be safe to short the market againt the higher time frames,, in fact i late traded LONG RIMM AND APPL .

Few other factors :--

All stocks are beaten to death and very very dificult to make $$$ from a short position ,, Taking a LONG position is against the market sentiment which means now a days traders should be way way careful . In fact you are better off not to trade on a day like this .

Iran has been in the NEWS all day to day and market has become very volatile which adds to risk element.

GM had a good result but to me this is just a make up on ugly face but market could do with an excuse to rally .

All in all , I am not any wiser than any of you as what is the best way to trade this market as i am a technical trader but there are too many NONE technical issues specially the IRAN and OIL price to skew my technical analysis.



Grey1

Iraj and others,

I’m certainly very flaky when it comes to determining market direction and it was my undoing yesterday. While I attempt to harmonise with the longer term MACCIs, I generally find that difficult to achieve and would appreciate any thoughts on how to improve my reading of the situation. I’ve done a rough, chart-eyeball of the action over the 12 trading days since the webinar and come up with the following: OB triggers 14, OS triggers 23 (defined as the 10 hitting +/- 100).

Of the 14 OB triggers only one was supported by a falling 30 min and four by a falling 60 min MACCI (defined by the change from the previous value and measured at the respective bar closes). On only one occasion did both longer timeframes support the move – and in this case the INDU failed to significantly respond to the MACCI change!

Of the 23 OS triggers only three were supported by a rising 30 and three by a rising 60. On no occasion did both support a long entry.

So unless this time period is unrepresentative for some reason it seems that waiting for confirmation from both of the longer term MACCIs is not going to yield many trading opportunities – if any. In that case should the greater weight be given to the 60 or the 30? Or is it that too many timeframes are always likely to provide you with conflicting information? How much weight should be given to the level as compared to the direction?

Again, just from casual observation, a smoothly moving MACCI10 – that is excluding those which “misbehave” – appear to take very roughly 60 min to move between extreme values. That being the case, you can’t wait for support from the next MACCI60 plot as by that time the move should be over. An alternative could be to follow the movement of the longer timeframe indicator on a tick basis – but that introduces different problems of interpretation.

Looking at yesterday’s action there was an upturn in the MACCI 10 around 12:40 EST which resulted in a long move up of over 100 min (spoiling my length of move theory!) but on my chart the 30 was climbing and the 60 was falling and then both continued to fall until after 14:30. It’s difficult for me to tell from the screenshot but I think Paul’s chart confirms this.

If anybody disagrees with my basic analysis please let me know and I’ll go back and take a closer look at my charts. Any other thoughts are most welcome.

Al

 

[Trader333]

TMM,

Are you also implementing the scalping strategy based on Grey1's 'N Minute Change' indicator?

I am using it for entry on day-trades but I wouldn't call this scalping.

Al,

In the screenshot I posted the study immediately below price is 30min (Dark Red) and 60min (Dark Green) Macci. The study below this is 10min (Blue) and 5min (Red) Macci


Paul

 

[Grey1]

Iraj and others,

I’m certainly very flaky when it comes to determining market direction and it was my undoing yesterday. While I attempt to harmonise with the longer term MACCIs, I generally find that difficult to achieve and would appreciate any thoughts on how to improve my reading of the situation. I’ve done a rough, chart-eyeball of the action over the 12 trading days since the webinar and come up with the following: OB triggers 14, OS triggers 23 (defined as the 10 hitting +/- 100).

Of the 14 OB triggers only one was supported by a falling 30 min and four by a falling 60 min MACCI (defined by the change from the previous value and measured at the respective bar closes). On only one occasion did both longer timeframes support the move – and in this case the INDU failed to significantly respond to the MACCI change!

Of the 23 OS triggers only three were supported by a rising 30 and three by a rising 60. On no occasion did both support a long entry.

So unless this time period is unrepresentative for some reason it seems that waiting for confirmation from both of the longer term MACCIs is not going to yield many trading opportunities – if any. In that case should the greater weight be given to the 60 or the 30? Or is it that too many timeframes are always likely to provide you with conflicting information? How much weight should be given to the level as compared to the direction?

Again, just from casual observation, a smoothly moving MACCI10 – that is excluding those which “misbehave” – appear to take very roughly 60 min to move between extreme values. That being the case, you can’t wait for support from the next MACCI60 plot as by that time the move should be over. An alternative could be to follow the movement of the longer timeframe indicator on a tick basis – but that introduces different problems of interpretation.

Looking at yesterday’s action there was an upturn in the MACCI 10 around 12:40 EST which resulted in a long move up of over 100 min (spoiling my length of move theory!) but on my chart the 30 was climbing and the 60 was falling and then both continued to fall until after 14:30. It’s difficult for me to tell from the screenshot but I think Paul’s chart confirms this.

If anybody disagrees with my basic analysis please let me know and I’ll go back and take a closer look at my charts. Any other thoughts are most welcome.

Al

I think this is best to be explained live ,, so if members are interested i am ready to iron out any problems some time next week ,,,

let me know guys.. next wednesday is fine with me ..

iraj

 

[Trader333]

Iraj,

That is very kind of you and yes I am up for that as well.

Thanks


Paul

 

[TheMoneyMachine]

I think this is best to be explained live ,, so if members are interested i am ready to iron out any problems some time next week ,,,

let me know guys.. next wednesday is fine with me ..

iraj

Iraj that would be great!

Kind regards

TMM

 

[chris_ri]

Yes Great,

Chris

I think this is best to be explained live ,, so if members are interested i am ready to iron out any problems some time next week ,,,

let me know guys.. next wednesday is fine with me ..

iraj

 

[trendie]

I think this is best to be explained live ,, so if members are interested i am ready to iron out any problems some time next week ,,,

let me know guys.. next wednesday is fine with me ..

iraj

can interested observers pop in as well?
will make way for traders using it live, if spaces are limited.
have been a member of TT for a while, but as paper-trader only as yet.
promise I wont ask any dumb questions. (keep that for threads)

 

[evostik]

I think this is best to be explained live ,, so if members are interested i am ready to iron out any problems some time next week ,,,

let me know guys.. next wednesday is fine with me ..

iraj

Hi Grey1

Wednesday next week would be great; thank you very much for offering your time again.

Cheers
Steve

 

[Grey1]

can interested observers pop in as well?
will make way for traders using it live, if spaces are limited.
have been a member of TT for a while, but as paper-trader only as yet.
promise I wont ask any dumb questions. (keep that for threads)

you very much welcome and there is not such a thing as dumb question ,,


Grey1

 

[Grey1]

THE ROOM IS CALLED TECHNICAL TRADER ON PAL TALK AND TIME IS 2PM Uk time.. I can only stay couple of hours but i make sure the first 2 hours I answer all questions ,

Cycle analysis is the foundation of the TA. We say history repeats itself,, in another word market goes through cycle ,, NO CYCLE NO HISTORY NO TA.

I suggest members to learn how to analyse the market using Cycle theory and make $$$ out of learning this subject,


ON wednesday i will take you through the advance side of the theory and show you why market is not random and how you can use this theory to your advantage,,,

I know for fact we are going through very bad time,,, very difficult time,, very risky time and this is the time for you to SHINE and WIN ,,,

WHAT EVER YOU DO DONOT GIVE UP.

Grey1

 

[Grey1]

THE ROOM IS CALLED TECHNICAL TRADER ON PAL TALK AND TIME IS 2PM Uk time.. I can only stay couple of hours but i make sure the first 2 hours I answer all questions ,

Cycle analysis is the foundation of the TA. We say history repeats itself,, in another word market goes through cycle ,, NO CYCLE NO HISTORY NO TA.

I suggest members to learn how to analyse the market using Cycle theory and make $$$ out of learning this subject,


ON wednesday i will take you through the advance side of the theory and show you why market is not random and how you can use this theory to your advantage,,,

I know for fact we are going through very bad time,,, very difficult time,, very risky time and this is the time for you to SHINE and WIN ,,,

WHAT EVER YOU DO DONOT GIVE UP.

Grey1

I am also going to give another full day LIVE trading seminar which I will trade the market live using various techniques which we have discussed in the past such as

1) VWAP BAND trading
2) statistical Arbitrage
3) hedging techniques
4) Pair trading both divergent and convergent
5) Swing trading ,, Time frame optimization
6) Gambling ( it is important for a trader to realise the border lines between gambling and trading .. such an important topic)
7) maximum entropy modelling of cycle moves . Top and bottom tagging .. How to use this technique to pick stocks. THIS IS A NEW FRONTIER METHODOLOGY .


For the time being members should just use iraj N minute code I have given them and once you are confident with the initial foundation i have set then i am sure this seminar will broaden your expertise.



grey1

 

[Trader333]

Iraj,

If it is two hours then I may record it and make it available as a FOC download if you are OK with that ?


Paul

 

[Grey1]

Iraj,

If it is two hours then I may record it and make it available as a FOC download if you are OK with that ?


Paul

yes it wont be more than 2 hours and i have no problems with downloading .

Iraj

 

[belflan]

Iraj,

If it is two hours then I may record it and make it available as a FOC download if you are OK with that ?


Paul

hi Paul,

a recording would be great (i cann't make next wed unfortunately)

thanks
and thanks to Iraj as always

 

[Trader333]

I will do the same as I did for the first web seminar and set everything up and then I will post a link on the TT thread.

Iraj,

I will start a new thread for this so that others clearly see it and also get the last couple of posts moved to the new thread.


Paul

 

[moreagr]

thanks Paul!!!