Livermore said:
Read our friend abobtraders very good blog:
http://www.abobtrader.blogspot.com
Hey Livermore, thanks for the plug. Glad you find it useful. I am pretty much adding material every day now.
I am going to post this directly from the site because its related to this thread. Don't worry folks I have no ulterior motives..nothing to sell, nothing to buy (!).
hope its of interest,
Abobtrader - the fundamentalist among the chartists !
---pasted from blog ---
There has been a lot of talk about the decoupling between the dollar and gold. Here, I present two interesting correlation related developments that I have observed in the foreign exchange market:
The first correlation is between EUR/USD and cable . The above chart shows an hourly chart of both rates going back 2 weeks. Historically, cable has tended to exhibit a very high correlation with EUR/USD. However, in recent sessions there has been somewhat of a de-coupling in the correlation; this happens on occasion, when market participants want to trade sterling on its own merits.
In this case, you can see that the recent rallies in EUR/USD were mirrored by moves higher in cable. However, when EUR/USD moved sharply lower, cable tended to hold its ground or moved down by a lesser percentage. If cable holds still when EUR/USD is going lower, then by definition this means that EUR/GBP is going down. So, what's the message? Well, the market is clearly in GBP buying mode.
Because the de-coupling between cable and EUR/USD does not seem to have been triggered by clear economic event, its hard to say for how long this will continue. However, for the time being, if you want to be long USD this may be best expressed through EUR/USD, but if you want to be short USD, then it looks like cable is providing the extra extra zing (and its more attractive from a carry perspective).
The second interesting correlation is between the Nikkei and USD/JPY, which I will talk about in the next piece.