Best Thread Live Cable Trading

abobtrader said:
I am agnostic on Big-Ben more generally (from past experience), but happy to start watching again for a month or so. You never know what we might learn. Livermore, I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the 9:30 data, though mortagage approvals may have a moderate impact given that its used as a leading indicator to actual house prices. If my calendar is right, we have Nationwide house prices at 7:00, so that could easily put a spanner in the works if notably away from expectations.

I watch money supply very much - and i suppose the markets also does, because it tells a lot of risk of inflation. House prices? Yes, but we got data about them all the time, doesn't we? Yes, let us watch if there are many Big Ben moves or not in one month. :D
 
Heres some stuff ive been looking at.. no consideration has been given to price action filtering just the condition of the index.. short of time atm.
 

Attachments

  • smalls.JPG
    smalls.JPG
    142.9 KB · Views: 141
Hi Livermore, from experience, nobody where I worked paid any attention to UK money supply data. The euro guys did look at the euroland data because the ECB still very much focussed on liquidity as big influencer of policy. For the UK however, the economists look at the data but the mkt impact was close to nil. Of course, things can change, but I get the feeling ever since we saw the disconnect between money supply and inflation that led to the gvt/BoE abandoning money supply targeting, money supply has become a third tier indicator at best. I wouldn't ignore it completely, but I would be very surprised if we see a mkt reaction. Still, I get the feeling there are a few economists out there who still like to analyse this data. Everyone has there own style of analysis.

The reason Nationwide house price data can be interesting is that other than the RICS survey data, this is the first set of comprehensive actual price data that is released in the month. Have to concede that house prices are on the back burner now given widespread expectations of a smooth landing, but you can always get an fx response on an outlier turnout on this data.


PS - Livermore, its great to meet a fellow 'fundamentalist'. I was pretty shocked to see the number of chartists dominating the boards !

: )
 
just realised my take-profit in cable got hit at 1.7125 (my chart shows a peak of 1.7126). Time to buy a paper yacht with my paper 23 pips profit !
 
abobtrader said:
Hi Livermore, from experience, nobody where I worked paid any attention to UK money supply data. The euro guys did look at the euroland data because the ECB still very much focussed on liquidity as big influencer of policy. For the UK however, the economists look at the data but the mkt impact was close to nil. Of course, things can change, but I get the feeling ever since we saw the disconnect between money supply and inflation that led to the gvt/BoE abandoning money supply targeting, money supply has become a third tier indicator at best. I wouldn't ignore it completely, but I would be very surprised if we see a mkt reaction. Still, I get the feeling there are a few economists out there who still like to analyse this data. Everyone has there own style of analysis.

The reason Nationwide house price data can be interesting is that other than the RICS survey data, this is the first set of comprehensive actual price data that is released in the month. Have to concede that house prices are on the back burner now given widespread expectations of a smooth landing, but you can always get an fx response on an outlier turnout on this data.


PS - Livermore, its great to meet a fellow 'fundamentalist'. I was pretty shocked to see the number of chartists dominating the boards !

: )


Thank you very much for info - yes, it's nice we now are two "fundamentalist" traders here. I can't understand why anyone can trade without knowing what's going on - it makes no sense to me. I am looking forward to read your comments... :p
 
I'm blushing here Livermore ! I'm going to update it later on today, after I drive home. For now, I would read this fx move very carefully. A few thoughts:

* This data is not so far off expectations as to suggest the housing market is collapsing, its more of a slowdown which everyone was expecting.

* Furthermore, EUR/USD doesn't tend to move by this magnitude on the back of house price data, but I wouldn't fade it because I believe we are in a period of pronounced volatility. Very interesting to watch and see if this move is sustained. If so, we have to figure out what the mkt is telling us.

* Yields have backed off and are now well off recent highs and after a period of quiet after this release, they have come down again.

* This tells me that just as the EUR responded in an unusual way to the German IFO, so the USD side of the equation will be more sensitive to all economic readings from here on.

* The market is torn between whether the ECB hike marks the start of a tightening cycle and whether the Fed is near the end. Think about the possibilities:

ECB is one off, Fed is near end.
ECB is one off, Fed to keep to its program.
ECB is starting a program of tightening. Fed is ending.
Both ECB and Fed are going to keep raising rates.

There are so many possibilities that the mkt is caught up. Importantly, these all have very different implications for EUR/USD.

So what does this add up to. Increased volatility ! I have a directional view but I've got to head out before London traffic builds and I get caught up in the crowd...that's one trend I don't want to be a part of !
 
PipSqueek said:
i'm tempted to short swissy here at 3206...mind you only for a few pips, $ still looks strong, however i can see it being a bit week this coming week...;)
I'm expecting dollar weakness throughout the week, but i may be expecting too much...:cheesy:
 
G-Man said:
Which sinking cable is that now then zuke?

G-Man

Ever heard the saying "form is temporary, class is permanent"? The dollar will be back!!
 
...interesting day for Hans123's breakout strat on Cable and EUR/USD. Might be of interest to the 'breakfast club' http://www.strategybuilderfx.com/fo...439&page=1&pp=8

Both EUR/USD Buy entries hit for +160 (+80 profit target hit on both triggers).
Both Cable Buy entries hit and currently +80 and +95 a piece (stoplosses at BE; 120 pip targets for Cable). November's pip tally up until today has been fairly flat though (+60 odd from memory).

The method (similar to JT's Spot On BO work) is averaging 600 pips per month since March '05 and currently has a max drawdown of 460 pips. People over there beavering away with Metatrader Experts to automate it, but simple enough to trade manually. Worth keeping an eye on perhaps.
 
ChowClown said:
...interesting day for Hans123's breakout strat on Cable and EUR/USD. Might be of interest to the 'breakfast club' http://www.strategybuilderfx.com/fo...439&page=1&pp=8

Both EUR/USD Buy entries hit for +160 (+80 profit target hit on both triggers).
Both Cable Buy entries hit and currently +80 and +95 a piece (stoplosses at BE; 120 pip targets for Cable). November's pip tally up until today has been fairly flat though (+60 odd from memory).

The method (similar to JT's Spot On BO work) is averaging 600 pips per month since March '05 and currently has a max drawdown of 460 pips. People over there beavering away with Metatrader Experts to automate it, but simple enough to trade manually. Worth keeping an eye on perhaps.

But +1825 for October.... Lots of swings, not so many roundabouts !! It'll go to pot when I start trading it, you just watch.
 
Kaffee said:
But +1825 for October.... Lots of swings, not so many roundabouts !! It'll go to pot when I start trading it, you just watch.

Sounds like you suffer from the same ailments as me then, Kaffee!!

G-Man
 
Top