Best Thread Live Cable Trading

Most days - like today - we get a nice move in Cable around 7.00 gmt. I suppose the days with important UK eco news the move will wait until the news...

PS. I suppose this is what JohnyT calls his breakfast strategy - it's a pity he don't want to tell about it. :cheesy:
 
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zuke said:
No, I caught the break out below the EMA too late and ended up going short @1.3134. Most annoying!

Zuke.. what period (and chart time frame) do you use ? Will accept "Pi*s Off" as an answer !! ;)
 
Livermore, I have heard of this as being called the Big Ben effect. I think it would be useful to get as much trading history as possible before deciding whether or not it is a tradable observation. There was a period when I recorded the daily charts thinking that the Big Ben effect could be exploited. I started observing this after watching a few days of price action just like we had today (cable started dropping just before 7:00 and continued to move lower). Alas, my stats didn't hold up for the duration and I gave up on the exercise. Maybe I didn't have enough observations. On average the idea may have some worth. I would say it is a different to other calendar effects that have been observed because it represents a time when more traders are definitively entering the market and establishing new positions. When I was looking at this stuff, the NY open and Tokyo open seemed to have less of an impact. It makes sense because the boost in liquidity going from the Tokyo session to the London session is likley the greatest in % terms.

We also got a big move bang on midnight last night as the mkts opened up for trading, which sometimes happens.
 
Kaffee said:
Zuke.. what period (and chart time frame) do you use ? Will accept "Pi*s Off" as an answer !! ;)

Kaffee, I use 1hr charts and 15 mins for entry.
 
I'm the ugly duckling here, but I'd go long with a stop at 1.7070, target 1.7125. Current spot rate is 1.7102. (paper trade).
 
abobtrader said:
Livermore, I have heard of this as being called the Big Ben effect. I think it would be useful to get as much trading history as possible before deciding whether or not it is a tradable observation. There was a period when I recorded the daily charts thinking that the Big Ben effect could be exploited. I started observing this after watching a few days of price action just like we had today (cable started dropping just before 7:00 and continued to move lower). Alas, my stats didn't hold up for the duration and I gave up on the exercise. Maybe I didn't have enough observations. On average the idea may have some worth. I would say it is a different to other calendar effects that have been observed because it represents a time when more traders are definitively entering the market and establishing new positions. When I was looking at this stuff, the NY open and Tokyo open seemed to have less of an impact. It makes sense because the boost in liquidity going from the Tokyo session to the London session is likley the greatest in % terms.

We also got a big move bang on midnight last night as the mkts opened up for trading, which sometimes happens.

abobtrader,

OK, let us watch the Big Ben effect this week. We had a move this morning - let us see if it happens again tomorrow (but we will have UK eco nows 9.30 gmt). ;)
 
does anyone here consider the cot data?..

comms are long....specs and smalls are short..

just a thought!

still no price action to support this atm apart from the obvious in the 4hr.
 
darktone said:
does anyone here consider the cot data?..

comms are long....specs and smalls are short..

just a thought!

still no price action to support this atm apart from the obvious in the 4hr.

Yep.

I mentioned this a few posts back. EUR is pretty flat but there is a lot of comm action on GBP and JPY, which could be moving the $index to the levels it is.

Also some weekly divergence on most indicators. Weekness profound in cable though ATM. Would need a stimulus to get bullish. Friday anyone?

G-Man
 
G-Man said:
Yep.

I mentioned this a few posts back. EUR is pretty flat but there is a lot of comm action on GBP and JPY, which could be moving the $index to the levels it is.

Also some weekly divergence on most indicators. Weekness profound in cable though ATM. Would need a stimulus to get bullish. Friday anyone?

G-Man

I Repeat:

"I name this ship HMS SINKING Cable"
"God Bless her and all who take pips from her"
 
I wouldn't place too much emphasis on the CFTC contract data. It is dated and I don't think it has any predictive value. The only time I would use it is as a contrarian indicator to help gage if the spec mkt is at an extreme. If you are looking at this data ignore commercial positions (they are hedging flows in the other direction). Look at net spec position either on an absolute basis or as a % of open interest.

Just googled and found this by Kathy Lein, which may be of more use: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/COTreport.asp
 
abobtrader said:
let the experiment commence !

: )

Yes, but my bet is that there will not be a Big Ben move tomorrow because we got important news later this morning. But I am sure we can get very rich just trading Big Ben (and the news) every morning... :cheesy:
 
I am agnostic on Big-Ben more generally (from past experience), but happy to start watching again for a month or so. You never know what we might learn. Livermore, I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the 9:30 data, though mortagage approvals may have a moderate impact given that its used as a leading indicator to actual house prices. If my calendar is right, we have Nationwide house prices at 7:00, so that could easily put a spanner in the works if notably away from expectations.
 
abobtrader said:
I wouldn't place too much emphasis on the CFTC contract data. It is dated and I don't think it has any predictive value. The only time I would use it is as a contrarian indicator to help gage if the spec mkt is at an extreme. If you are looking at this data ignore commercial positions (they are hedging flows in the other direction). Look at net spec position either on an absolute basis or as a % of open interest.

Just googled and found this by Kathy Lein, which may be of more use: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/COTreport.asp

Granted. That may be possible regarding the the comm positioning.

The main point i trying to get across was that the smalls and specs are very often wrong at the extremes. Right now they are crowded to to short side. Im not saying jump into longs on the strength of this but given the condition of where the 'dumb' money is. it may be wise to keep a keen eye for long price action.. just my thoughts.
 
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