Let's Talk Trading Set-Ups

[RachelFX]

I wanted to start this thread as a way of sharing ideas and thoughts on trade set-ups, or reviewing trades that have been taken.

Trading can be a solitary pursuit, so would love to interact with everyone and hear your thoughts about the current markets.
Personally I feel it can be really valuable to get insight and feedback from like minded traders, whether we agree or disagree about what we see on the charts!

I hope others may find this helpful too, and be great if anyone wishes to share their charts/set-ups ideas too.

 

[RachelFX]

To kick us off, I am looking at CADCHF right now.

A lovely H&S pattern that has broke the neckline, I am looking for a re-test around the 0.74900 level which also has the 50% fibonacci retracement level in the area.

Price is heading back up there now!

 

[panda]

Hi, looks like a h & s on the daily too

 

[trendie]

Hope you get traction with this thread. (nice to see a trading-related thread here! )
I am, and always have been, a slingshot/pullback player.
(Look at the higher TF trend (MA, or Stochs), and then use lower TF slingshots back towards the higher TF trend.)
Attached is my view of CADCHF, just as a side-by-side comparative, perhaps.
(I don't trade CADCHF personally)
Note: I have manually marked where the lower TFs would have alerted me to a signal. I would then have looked at the chart, and if its OS in an uptrend, I would eyeball/review a trade. If I get an OB alert, I would check to see if the trend was down, and assess if a short was viable)

 

[cantagril]

Interesting. I have similar ideas from from a different starting point

I use p&f a fair bit and though I admit that there wasn't a signal to do so, I went long at .7460 on the basis of previous support between 50 and 60 and that this level also coincides with 1.5c deviations from the p&f mean - which is a compromise number that I find works quite well. I'm also looking at .7490 for an initial TP but have .7520 as the mean (again p&f not bar/candle) for a secondary target. I shall dump it if it comes back to 60.

 

[ssam]

Hope you get traction with this thread. (nice to see a trading-related thread here! )
I am, and always have been, a slingshot/pullback player.
(Look at the higher TF trend (MA, or Stochs), and then use lower TF slingshots back towards the higher TF trend.)
Attached is my view of CADCHF, just as a side-by-side comparative, perhaps.
(I don't trade CADCHF personally)
Note: I have manually marked where the lower TFs would have alerted me to a signal. I would then have looked at the chart, and if its OS in an uptrend, I would eyeball/review a trade. If I get an OB alert, I would check to see if the trend was down, and assess if a short was viable)
View attachment 270249

Is that also a bolly band running too? Or are they just MA’s? How would you go about filtering breakouts/ false signals ? If you hop on a short because price action is well outide the bolly band (assuming that is what it is) but it price keeps further north. Is that where you refer to stochastics over bought etc?
Thank you

 

[cantagril]

Interesting. I have similar ideas from from a different starting point

I went long at .7460 on the basis of previous support between 50 and 60 and that this level also coincides with 1.5c deviations from the p&f mean - which is a compromise number that I find works quite well. I'm also looking at .7490 for an initial TP but have .7520 as the mean (again p&f not bar/candle) for a secondary target. I shall dump it if it comes back to 60.

So far, so bad. It did come back to 60 and broke down far enough to indicate (in p&f world) that it might well be falling further. On that basis, I'm not leaping back in just yet. On the the subject of Bollinger bands: I'm generally indicator-averse as I find that it's a slippery slope that can lead to clutter and over-complication, so I generally use clean charts with perhaps pivot points by default - and that depends on whose charts I'm using at the moment. That said, I'm not against the topical use of tools such as MAs, and Bollinger/Kelltner bands to quickly establish basics such as trends, Means and Deviations ...and of course, ATR.

....which is why I'm interested in ssam's question to Trendie:

Is that also a bolly band running too? Or are they just MA’s? How would you go about filtering breakouts/ false signals ? If you hop on a short because price action is well outide the bolly band (assuming that is what it is) but it price keeps further north. Is that where you refer to stochastics over bought etc?

This what the 10 x 3 p&f looks like atm - I have included both the Bollinger and Kelltner bands for decorative effect - Christmas is coming

 

[ssam]

So far, so bad. It did come back to 60 and broke down far enough to indicate (in p&f world) that it might well be falling further. On that basis, I'm not leaping back in just yet. On the the subject of Bollinger bands: I'm generally indicator-averse as I find that it's a slippery slope that can lead to clutter and over-complication, so I generally use clean charts with perhaps pivot points by default - and that depends on whose charts I'm using at the moment. That said, I'm not against the topical use of tools such as MAs, and Bollinger/Kelltner bands to quickly establish basics such as trends, Means and Deviations ...and of course, ATR.

....which is why I'm interested in ssam's question to Trendie:



This what the 10 x 3 p&f looks like atm - I have included both the Bollinger and Kelltner bands for decorative effect - Christmas is coming

View attachment 270287

Interesting observation with the Kelltner too, not something I am too familiar with. I am even more detached from the p&f visuals! It’s only the thread on here which has shown me what it’s all about.

It looks like it could be a relatively good strategy once you break out the bolly band, set stop loss outside kelltner channel and wait for pull back to ‘average’ price in center of bolly band. Albeit by the looks of things this would only provide 4/5 set ups over just as many months by the looks of the daily chart you posted.

Interesting!

 

[trendie]

Is that also a bolly band running too? Or are they just MA’s? How would you go about filtering breakouts/ false signals ? If you hop on a short because price action is well outide the bolly band (assuming that is what it is) but it price keeps further north. Is that where you refer to stochastics over bought etc?
Thank you

Indeed its a bolly-band.
I don't know how to filter false signals, since they're only false after the fact (form me). I just take the hit and wait for next alert.
I don't take a trade if price has moved too far away from the bands.(its not only about bands).
The Stochs signals are just alert for me to look at charts, as I don't sit at screen all the time.
I get a ping to my smartphone, and I then open relevant chart. I still have to eyeball and assess.
cantagril: I use indicators to generate signals. I am not smart enough to code for waves, breakouts, spikes, etc. Also, its a slow-step towards automation.

Don't want to hog this thread.
RachelFX may have started an interesting new thread, where we can illustrate the myriad ways we can take a single market, and show how we interpret it, using our own methods.

 

[cantagril]

Interesting observation with the Kelltner too, not something I am too familiar with. I am even more detached from the p&f visuals! It’s only the thread on here which has shown me what it’s all about.

It looks like it could be a relatively good strategy once you break out the bolly band, set stop loss outside kelltner channel and wait for pull back to ‘average’ price in center of bolly band. Albeit by the looks of things this would only provide 4/5 set ups over just as many months by the looks of the daily chart you posted.

Interesting!

Umm....as p&f is not time dependant there is no such thing as a TF chart. The price is all that matters and I was using the 10 x 3 to show price over a longer period. By using a different lens, such as 2.5 x 2, you'd get a very different picture that would be perhaps suitable for, say, day-trading.

As to being "the only the thread on here which has shown me what it’s all about." .....I haven't and I'm definitely not trying to show anybody anything apart from what I'm doing. If you'd like to look into p&f you could with advantage look at both of Dentalfloss' threads - you might notice that the current one (started in 2014) begins with the line "Well folks, now you have all learnt the p/f methodology" on the assumption that readers will have plowed through his earlier one from 2010, here: https://www.trade2win.com/threads/learning-to-read-price-action-with-p-f-charts.86964/

Though Dentalfloss is posting mainly barcharts these days, he's still (or so I understand it) thinking p&f....which seems reasonable to me as he's been at it for over ten years. This goes someway to explain why the levels and trend lines he's posting often don't match up with the ones you might think more obvious. Me, on the other hand, being a relative beginner, needs me p&f chart to even begin to make sense of anything.

 

[ssam]

Umm....as p&f is not time dependant there is no such thing as a TF chart. The price is all that matters and I was using the 10 x 3 to show price over a longer period. By using a different lens, such as 2.5 x 2, you'd get a very different picture that would be perhaps suitable for, say, day-trading.

As to being "the only the thread on here which has shown me what it’s all about." .....I haven't and I'm definitely not trying to show anybody anything apart from what I'm doing. If you'd like to look into p&f you could with advantage look at both of Dentalfloss' threads - you might notice that the current one (started in 2014) begins with the line "Well folks, now you have all learnt the p/f methodology" on the assumption that readers will have plowed through his earlier one from 2010, here: https://www.trade2win.com/threads/learning-to-read-price-action-with-p-f-charts.86964/

Though Dentalfloss is posting mainly barcharts these days, he's still (or so I understand it) thinking p&f....which seems reasonable to me as he's been at it for over ten years. This goes someway to explain why the levels and trend lines he's posting often don't match up with the ones you might think more obvious. Me, on the other hand, being a relative beginner, needs me p&f chart to even begin to make sense of anything.

Yes indeed - it was dentalfloss’s thread I just couldn’t remember the chap /name of the thread. It is his thread which is my first and only intro to p&f. Interesting all the same.

 

[RachelFX]

Don't want to hog this thread.
RachelFX may have started an interesting new thread, where we can illustrate the myriad ways we can take a single market, and show how we interpret it, using our own methods.

Certainly not hogging the thread this is exactly why I started it to share ideas and learn from others as we go.

The methodologies discussed so far are very different to my own personal trading style, and how everyone uses the different indicators / tools is very informative.

I have in the past used a snapback strategy using bollinger bands and MACD, looking for divergence to indicate a snapback to the median band. A similar theory behind it but did not get along with it personally.

So far, so bad. It did come back to 60 and broke down far enough to indicate (in p&f world) that it might well be falling further. On that basis, I'm not leaping back in just yet. On the the subject of Bollinger bands: I'm generally indicator-averse as I find that it's a slippery slope that can lead to clutter and over-complication, so I generally use clean charts with perhaps pivot points by default - and that depends on whose charts I'm using at the moment. That said, I'm not against the topical use of tools such as MAs, and Bollinger/Kelltner bands to quickly establish basics such as trends, Means and Deviations ...and of course, ATR.

I am sorry to hear this trade did not pan out, was not one I entered as it never retraced high enough for me to consider.

It has made it down to the next support level, so will look for a reaction here and move back up to the neckline to form another triangle.
Will continue to monitor the pair but unlikely to enter this end of the week on a Friday.

 

[fibo_trader]

Interesting. I have similar ideas from from a different starting point

I use p&f a fair bit and though I admit that there wasn't a signal to do so, I went long at .7460 on the basis of previous support between 50 and 60 and that this level also coincides with 1.5c deviations from the p&f mean - which is a compromise number that I find works quite well. I'm also looking at .7490 for an initial TP but have .7520 as the mean (again p&f not bar/candle) for a secondary target. I shall dump it if it comes back to 60.
View attachment 270260

Gross outpoints:

(1) Going LONG in a downtrend is bad enough. Going LONG in a 3rd wave down is outright inexperience and folly to the nth

(2) Hindsight trade .................. pls post the name of broker who accepts hindsight trades. I have the right to be rich too.

Thanks very much

Oldtimers at T2W the way they trade?

Q.E.D.

Hope you get traction with this thread. (nice to see a trading-related thread here! )
I am, and always have been, a slingshot/pullback player.
(Look at the higher TF trend (MA, or Stochs), and then use lower TF slingshots back towards the higher TF trend.)
Attached is my view of CADCHF, just as a side-by-side comparative, perhaps.
(I don't trade CADCHF personally)
Note: I have manually marked where the lower TFs would have alerted me to a signal. I would then have looked at the chart, and if its OS in an uptrend, I would eyeball/review a trade. If I get an OB alert, I would check to see if the trend was down, and assess if a short was viable)
View attachment 270249

Q.E.D. Another live one with NO numbers no live trade. I'm dying to see one.

To kick us off, I am looking at CADCHF right now.

A lovely H&S pattern that has broke the neckline, I am looking for a re-test around the 0.74900 level which also has the 50% fibonacci retracement level in the area.

Price is heading back up there now!

Forgive them Father for they know not what they do or say and avoid placing any real time trades.

You could have just gone like below since you had done your analysis and decided to go short on the re-test ......

CADCHF Short @ 0.74900 STOP 0.7573 ..... all done in advance of the trade triggering. Otherwise you're a hindsight trader like the rest of the gang, dishing out Likes for hindsight trading.

------------------------------------------------

additionally, why are you waiting so long to go Short? See the white down arrows, the 2nd arrow is where you could add to Short. Trendline at extreme right is if anybody here is in a live trade, take profit on breakout above the line. Nobody even noticed the baseline 3-contact point line going from left to right. And sure as night follows day nobody noticed the RSI breakout at the bottom panel = TP 50% of position ahead of the gang of draft dodgers and avoid the Stampede!!!

My recommendation: save yourself now, get a job. This is not for you.

good luck in life

PS: send a complaint to the moderator McQueen to have my ass in a sling for trying to save your Life.

 

[cantagril]

The methodologies discussed so far are very different to my own personal trading style, and how everyone uses the different indicators / tools is very informative.

I have in the past used a snapback strategy using bollinger bands and MACD, looking for divergence to indicate a snapback to the median band. A similar theory behind it but did not get along with it personally.
I am sorry to hear this trade did not pan out, was not one I entered as it never retraced high enough for me to consider.

It has made it down to the next support level, so will look for a reaction here and move back up to the neckline to form another triangle.
Will continue to monitor the pair but unlikely to enter this end of the week on a Friday.

Just checking in this morning to note that we're now (09h00ish) up around 80 on CADCHF after getting down below 48 - one of the lower supports I posted yesterday. I didn't get on board so didn't pass go or collect my 30 pips - still, another day, another dollar. I'm nonethless interested to see if it does manage to clamber up above 90.

On the subject of exploring methodologies, you might take a look at NVP's thread. He has devised a very straightforward correlator/strength MT4 meter for the G8 currencies which I find very useful. He's mostly a scalper but the possibility of determining relative strength in real time on any TF is a practical tool that can help with almost any strategy.

...and I don't tend to do much on a Friday but that's more about me skiving off to start my w/e early than anything else.

 

[Bloodhound]

Great to see a thread about trading on T2W I don't trade CADCHF but here are some thoughts which might be of interest.......

D1 supply and demand picture


D1 recent price action story


Potential long trade last week



Potential short trade setting up for this coming week (almost certainly won't set up given that it's developing through a weekend)

 

[Bloodhound]

Just to clarify my analysis 'style' as those charts might be slightly confusing. All I do is mark on supply and demand zones (i.e. obvious areas / levels on a chart where major buying and selling took place), together with a basic understanding of market structure / price action (i.e. the relationship between highs and lows to conclude who is in control on any timeframe at any point in time).

 

[tomorton]

Nice start RachelFX, CAD/CHF is as interesting as any other pair to start with, let's see where this goes.

I maintain a trend-following strength spreadsheet on the 28 important pairs and though it perhaps sounds eccentric I refer to the spreadsheet more than I do the charts.

I have both CAD and CHF as pretty neutral currencies right now against the other majors. That said, there is a clear bearish bias to this pair - the 20 and 50EMA's are both falling, and last week's bar was clearly bearish. However, last week's bar also overlapped with the previous 11 consecutive weekly bars, which i usually take to mean this ain't goin nowhere fast. So I can't give it a "get short 'n' 'ang on" score.

Actually, GBP/CAD comes up as a weak buy and I think USD/CAD will become more bullish soon also.

 

[cantagril]

Nice start RachelFX, CAD/CHF is as interesting as any other pair to start with, let's see where this goes.
Indeed, why not?
I maintain a trend-following strength spreadsheet on the 28 important pairs and though it perhaps sounds eccentric I refer to the spreadsheet more than I do the charts.
Do you make use of individual strengths à la NVP?
I have both CAD and CHF as pretty neutral currencies right now against the other majors. That said, there is a clear bearish bias to this pair.....
P&F comes up with an almost identical result - or at least, so I believe. Whilst there is a possibility of it managing to get to the next rez, there is a greater likelihood of it continuing the down trend.

Not that this is a call but if it's still around 90 when trading starts on Monday (or I've had enough coffee) and there is no clear bullish evidence to contrary, I'll go short with TP areas of 60, 40 and 05.....if the trend gathers a bit of steam I'd be looking at the .7375 pivot/support. The attached chart is .0005 box x 3 reversal but the pivot comes out more clearly on the .001 x 3.


In the interests of balance I'd very much like Dentist's opinion on this and also some other approaches - more Fibs anyone?...Ssam?

 

[tomorton]

Not that this is a call but if it's still around 90 when trading starts on Monday (or I've had enough coffee) and there is no clear bullish evidence to contrary, I'll go short with TP areas of 60, 40 and 05.....if the trend gathers a bit of steam I'd be looking at the .7375 pivot/support. The attached chart is .0005 box x 3 reversal but the pivot comes out more clearly on the .001 x 3.
View attachment 270463

In the interests of balance I'd very much like Dentist's opinion on this and also some other approaches - more Fibs anyone?...Ssam?

Yes, I continuously log the strengths of the 8 major currencies. This is in a simplistic way but is worth the minimal effort. I just look at the slope of the 50EMA on all 7 charts for each of the 8 currencies, inverted if necessary - upwards is bullish of course, downwards is bearish. Of greatest interest would be a 7-0:0-7 match-up (or vice versa). Any long-term trades I take must not conflict with these ratios: it works.

 

[RachelFX]

Nice start RachelFX, CAD/CHF is as interesting as any other pair to start with, let's see where this goes.

I maintain a trend-following strength spreadsheet on the 28 important pairs and though it perhaps sounds eccentric I refer to the spreadsheet more than I do the charts.

I have both CAD and CHF as pretty neutral currencies right now against the other majors. That said, there is a clear bearish bias to this pair - the 20 and 50EMA's are both falling, and last week's bar was clearly bearish. However, last week's bar also overlapped with the previous 11 consecutive weekly bars, which i usually take to mean this ain't goin nowhere fast. So I can't give it a "get short 'n' 'ang on" score.

Actually, GBP/CAD comes up as a weak buy and I think USD/CAD will become more bullish soon also.

That is a very different approach to how I trade, very interesting to see how this works. I assume you would determine which trades to look for each week by those with the greatest strength/weakness? How successful have you found this approach?