Learning profitable automated trading

[oildaytrader]

Are you seriously trying to say that this is a good looking equity curve that shows you have an edge in the market?

You are saying nothing new or what we do not know already.

First understand how automated systems work, they all have drawdowns and also losing periods.The market conditions have been pretty adverse for last three months for this system.

The system has been known to go through drawdowns and losing periods over the last 10 years.

Your comments are not adding anything of value , besides this same equity curve was already shown to you on backtests presented here in the excel sheets

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gen...fitable-automated-trading-15.html#post1107620

 

[oildaytrader]

you make all these lists of why automated systems are better than discreitonal trading, but you forgot to mention you're making $1500 over 958 trades, thats a dollar 50 per trade and a 53% winning ratio. also loving the 30% drawn down.


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

14 year old

Let me repeat .The systems has drawdowns of 30 to 40 %, actually 3 the month drawdown is 3k/20k = 15%

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gen...fitable-automated-trading-12.html#post1084340

 

[wackypete2]

1.99

I'll take 3

Peter

 

[meanreversion]

This is the advantage of a mechanical system which you truly believe has statisical edge ... you're able to trade through the drawdown. Typically, a system with a CAGR/Max DD ratio of over 1 is considered good (e.g. over 10 years it returns 30 pct a year, with max drawdown 30 pct).

 

[montmorencyt2w]

For some reason I'm not getting email notification of thread replies ... going back to something I posted earlier, simply dividing total return by number of years overstates the CAGR.

E.g. let's say you made 200 pct in 10 years, that is NOT the same as 20 pct CAGR, it's more like 12 pct/year (1.12^10 approx equals +200 pct profit).

Thus it is accurate in this example to say the system makes 12 pct a year, not 20 pct a year. This is a common error I see frequently.

http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/discount_rate_calculator.htm

I made it 11.61%

Anyway, you two ladies continue..

That was no lady; that was his secretary.


I want to see an indiscretionary trading system.

 

[meanreversion]

You could design an indiscrete model to trade, and call it a 'Kate Moss'.

 

[oildaytrader]

1500$ profit over 958 trades? are you actually for real?

The lot sizes if increased to $10 per pip would make it $15,000 , or $100 per pip to $150k.
Trading $1 per point is no reflection on the system, it is just me increasing stakes slowly.

 

[N Rothschild]

The lot sizes if increased to $10 per pip would make it $15,000 , or $100 per pip to $150k.
Trading $1 per point is no reflection on the system, it is just me increasing stakes slowly.

well it managed to draw down 30% on $1 a point, some how i dont think there would be much of your account left if those losing trades were 10 times the size.

i think what makes this all so funny is, you clearly cant trade and have no clue how to, so you design these pathetic systems, which return about as much as a savings account!

 

[oildaytrader]

This is the advantage of a mechanical system which you truly believe has statisical edge ... you're able to trade through the drawdown. Typically, a system with a CAGR/Max DD ratio of over 1 is considered good (e.g. over 10 years it returns 30 pct a year, with max drawdown 30 pct).

After every 5,000 pip gain increase stake by 20 % , the equity curve will be far greater, probably get in excess of 100 % per annum using your cagr method of calculation.

All figures are in pips on excel sheet.

 

[oildaytrader]

well it managed to draw down 30% on $1 a point, some how i dont think there would be much of your account left if those losing trades were 10 times the size.

i think what makes this all so funny is, you clearly cant trade and have no clue how to, so you design these pathetic systems, which return about as much as a savings account!

Mr 14

with larger lot sizes you have bigger account size i.e money.

 

[N Rothschild]

but you're not..your making 1500$... or do you not trade to make money?

no one cares about woulda coulda shoulda

 

[N Rothschild]

Mr 14

with larger lot sizes you have bigger account size i.e money.

, but you don't or you would have done it..

 

[N Rothschild]

regardless of your account size and lots size, its still going to be generating the same pathetic returns.

 

[meanreversion]

If it works for small size, it should work for larger size. Usually the CAGR/MDD ratio increases as you increase stake size.

 

[oildaytrader]

If it works for small size, it should work for larger size. Usually the CAGR/MDD ratio increases as you increase stake size.

That is not a good way to look at it , if trader is increasing lot sizes with only a proportion of the profit earned.

If trader made 100 % in first year , doubled his investment and drawdown to 60 % from 30 % .Doesn't sound right.

 

[oildaytrader]

regardless of your account size and lots size, its still going to be generating the same pathetic returns.

We know all your disadvantages and you have admitted to many of them , so don't be jealous

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gen...ted-trading-versus-discretionary-trading.html


Other usual trading weaknesses include


1)buying wrong currency pair or instrument
2)buying wrong lot sizes
3)putting on revenge trades , trades just for the sake of revenge, against the market after losses.
4)Betting larger sizes above safe money management criteria , to recover losses
5)All manual errors lead to losses , chooses the same old path of becoming a mentor rather than gaining discipline and becoming a profitable trader.Looks to recover loses from new traders instead of trading the market
6)scared of putting another trade after losses , becoming mentally unstable after a series of losses
7)After a winning sequence , he becomes over confident and starts becoming lax about the trades , and loses more
8)Hallicunating trade set ups
9)dreaming where price should end up
10)lack of concentration, too busy posting on internet sites
11)gambling instead of trading
12)emotionally disturbed by losses , can't take pain.
13)Watching porn whilst trading
14)Thinking more of whats for lunch dinner , than on trading set ups.
15)Buying low and cheap when markets are heading lower , selling when markets are heading higher.Computer does less of it , except Rockerfeller does more of it.Its called fundamental trading.

 

[N Rothschild]

nice list, but the fact is..your altetnitive to all this..is making u sweet f all


15)Buying low and cheap when markets are heading lower , selling when markets are heading higher.Computer does less of it , except Rockerfeller does more of it.Its called fundamental trading.

hah, maybe you should swing by my thread sometime and see how its really done?

 

[oildaytrader]

nice list, but the fact is..your altetnitive to all this..is making u sweet f all


15)Buying low and cheap when markets are heading lower , selling when markets are heading higher.Computer does less of it , except Rockerfeller does more of it.Its called fundamental trading.

hah, maybe you should swing by my thread sometime and see how its really done?

Your probably in the 95% club already

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-first-steps/42814-90-95-lose-money-forex-market.html

 

[N Rothschild]

lets say your systems did work, and made lots of money. where is the sense of achievement? gona just sit about counting your money? may be fun for a while but you would probably end up killing yourself.

atleast discretionary trading gives you a purpose, a career, constantly learning, increasing your knowledge base and understanding. and most importantly of all, keeps your mind occupied. sitting watching a robot does f all for your life.

since you haven't actually made any money, you wont understand the harsh reality of having lots of money and nothing to do! called boredom, which leads to depression, which leads to suicide. enjoy.

 

[meanreversion]

lets say your systems did work, and made lots of money. where is the sense of achievement? gona just sit about counting your money? may be fun for a while but you would probably end up killing yourself.

atleast discretionary trading gives you a purpose, a career, constantly learning, increasing your knowledge base and understanding. and most importantly of all, keeps your mind occupied. sitting watching a robot does f all for your life.

since you haven't actually made any money, you wont understand the harsh reality of having lots of money and nothing to do! called boredom, which leads to depression, which leads to suicide. enjoy.

You need to constantly monitor every aspect of the mechanical system, which is where the interest lies. But as with discretionary trading, there will always be quiet times, hence the existence of t2w.