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:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:

 

[EmpireGlobalfx]

Mood tense as debt talks go down to wire

A bitter mood prevailed on Capitol Hill as lawmakers struggled on Saturday to find a compromise measure to lift the nation's $14.3 trillion debt, as talks to avert a ruinous default went down to the wire.

A day after the Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed a bill to cut the deficit and raise the ceiling on government borrowing, the debt saga shifted to the Democratic-led Senate where lawmakers scrambled for a deal.

Senate Democrats pushed ahead with their own plan, but sought to attract bipartisan support by adding some elements of a proposal offered by Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell.

But Senate Republicans appeared to have the votes to block that bill and the House quickly crushed the Democrats' proposal before the Senate acted on it, rejecting the measure 246 to 173 in a fast-tracked vote set by the Republican leadership.

Back-channel talks held the best hope for a compromise.

President Barack Obama was to meet in the afternoon with Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid and the House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi. McConnell also wants to meet with the White House.

Unless Congress raises the debt ceiling, the government would be barred from further borrowing after Tuesday, according to the U.S. Treasury, and could quickly run out of money to pay all its bills.

The world has watched with growing alarm as political gridlock in Washington has brought the world's largest economy close to an unprecedented default, threatening to plunge financial markets and economies around the globe into turmoil.

Forty-three Senate Republicans signed a letter rejecting Reid's plan, a sign the measure does not have the support needed to clear a 60-vote procedural hurdle in the Senate.

"What will they vote for? Do they have any ideas? Let me know," Reid said on the Senate floor.

Democrats hope to convince some Republicans who signed their letter to allow the bill to clear the hurdle, at which point they could change it, a Democratic aide said.

WHITE HOUSE TALKS

McConnell called on Reid to move up a vote on the Democratic plan that had been set for 1 a.m. EDT (0500 GMT) on Sunday so the two sides could begin talks with the White House.

"We can't do it by ourselves, it has to have the only person in America who can sign something into law," McConnell said.

Obama used his weekly radio and Internet address to urge lawmakers to strike a deal and head off what he has said would be an "inexcusable" default.

In a vote scheduled to send a message to Senate Democrats, the Republican-controlled House defeated a version of the Reid plan, which fell well short of the supermajority vote needed for quick passage.

The drawn-out standoff has put the United States at risk of losing its top-notch AAA credit rating. A ratings downgrade could prompt global investor flight from U.S. bonds and the dollar, raising borrowing costs for Americans when the economy is already frail, growing at an anemic rate of 1.3 percent in second quarter, according to government data.

U.S. stocks endured their worst week in a year as the uncertainty made investors shy away from riskier assets and the dollar slumped to a record low against the safe-haven Swiss franc. Much worse could be in store if a U.S. debt deal doesn't appear to be on track by the time markets open on Monday.

Senate Democrats' debt-limit proposal, which would cut deficits by $2.2 trillion over 10 years, was revised by Reid to incorporate parts of a "backup plan" first proposed by McConnell. As envisioned, Obama would be given authority to raise the debt ceiling in three stages to cover U.S. borrowing needs through the 2012 elections when he is running for a second term.

Senate Democrats and Republicans agree about the main contours of the deal. The main point of contention remains what sort of mechanism should be in place to ensure that Congress will agree to further budget savings after a special committee makes recommendations, an aide said.

Republicans want the enforcement mechanism to be another debt limit vote late this year or early next year, while Democrats have proposed automatic tax hikes and spending cuts.

Obama says any plan that would require another showdown over the debt limit in a few months would be unacceptable because it would lead to economic uncertainty, putting a damper on jobs and growth.

With Republicans pushing to have the White House join the talks, Vice President Joe Biden, who has a rapport with McConnell from his years in the Senate, could emerge as a key player in final negotiations.

Unless there is major progress toward a debt deal, the U.S. Treasury could be forced on Sunday before Asian markets open to detail plans on which bills the government would pay if Tuesday's deadline is missed. Analysts believe it will stop other government spending to ensure bondholders are paid to avert a wide-scale financial crisis.

 

[EmpireGlobalfx]

Britain, Japan warn of disaster if no U.S. debt deal

(Reuters) - British and Japanese officials warned Sunday of disastrous consequences for the global economy if last-minute talks among lawmakers in Washington failed to agree on raising the U.S. borrowing limit and averting a debt default.

Governments across the world fear that because of the key role of the U.S. dollar in global banking and trading systems, there could be severe instability when Asian financial markets reopen Monday if a U.S. debt deal is not in sight by then.

In Washington, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, the top Senate Republican who is playing a key role in the debt talks, said "we're very close" to a $3 trillion deal that would raise the debt ceiling while cutting the U.S. budget deficit.

But a senior White House official warned that an agreement was "not there yet."

"If they get this one wrong and there's a default -- we don't expect that, we think that they will sort this out -- but if that were to happen, it has consequences for every family and every business in this country and all across the world," said Danny Alexander, Chief Secretary to the British Treasury.

"I think in the end the politicians on Capitol Hill can see that the precipice they are looking over is one that they are going to step back from," Alexander told BBC television.

"But it is something that would have a big effect on the global financial system and on the global economy, where the United States is one of our major trading partners, that could have really big implications for the United Kingdom."

In Tokyo, sources familiar with Japan's international and monetary affairs said they were increasingly concerned that markets might be too optimistic about prospects for a lasting solution to the crisis.

Japanese officials still hope Washington can strike a deal and if that proves impossible, will give priority to interest payments to international holders of U.S. Treasury debt to limit the immediate market impact, the sources said.

But Tokyo's concern is that if the crisis drags on without a clear and long-term solution, markets may be thrown into turmoil in the same way that they suffered when U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008.

"If there is a default, the impact on global markets will be huge," said one of the sources, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.

Another Japanese source said, "Nobody thought Washington would let Lehman collapse. But look what happened."

U.S. lawmakers have set themselves a Tuesday deadline to reach agreement and the U.S. Treasury has said it will run out of borrowing room on that day, although analysts think the government may have enough cash to keep servicing its debt and paying its bills through the middle of this month.

CHINA

Britain is the third largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury debt and Japan is the second largest. China is the biggest with well over $1 trillion invested in U.S. Treasuries; about two-thirds of its $3.2 trillion of foreign exchange reserves are estimated to be held in dollar assets.

Saturday the official People's Daily newspaper, the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, castigated the U.S. handling of the debt crisis in an editorial as "irresponsible" and "immoral."

It said the U.S. democratic system was to blame for the "farce," claiming that "not a single representative has considered the world, and even U.S. national interests are being banished from the mind."

Friday a senior economic policymaker in the euro zone, who declined to be named, told Reuters he was optimistic Washington would solve the problem but expressed surprise and anger that U.S. politicians were "playing chicken" with an issue of such importance for the global economy.

Euro zone leaders are struggling to control sovereign debt crises in several countries in their region, and the U.S. debt problem is making this more difficult by adding to upward pressure on the yields of government bonds in those weak states.

If there is no U.S. debt deal by Monday morning, central banks around the world are expected to stand ready to provide emergency supplies of money to commercial banks in case the banks become too nervous to lend to each other.

Japan's first defense will be to ensure that Japanese financial institutions have a sufficient supply of dollars, the sources in Tokyo indicated.

The Bank of Japan believes Japanese commercial banks have sufficient dollar cushions but will use its dollar swap arrangement with other central banks to prevent a dollar squeeze in case of market turmoil.

In late June, the U.S. Federal Reserve agreed to extend liquidity swap arrangements with other major central banks until August 1, 2012.

The Japanese central bank is also prepared to flood markets with yen through its open market operations in case interbank borrowing costs spike, BOJ officials say.

In Europe, there were minor signs of strain in the money markets last week with some banks becoming unable to take out longer-term dollar loans, but the effect was small since banks still expected Washington would reach a deal.

The European Central Bank already offers unlimited euro loans to banks in some of its money market operations as part of its response to past crises, and it could use that policy to cope with any market problems this week.

A spokesman for the Swiss central bank said, "The Swiss National Bank is ready to react appropriately at any time to market disruptions."

 

[EmpireGlobalfx]

HSBC heads for $11 billion profit as revamp takes shape

(Reuters) - HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA.L) should unveil a half-year profit of near $11 billion (6 billion pounds) on Monday, flat from a year earlier as weak investment bank trading and wobbly U.S. and European economies offset growth in Asia.

New HSBC CEO Stuart Gulliver is overhauling Europe's biggest bank by slashing costs by up to $3.5 billion, selling its U.S. credit card arm and other assets, and retreating from countries where it is sub-scale.

The aim is to sharpen the focus on Asia and investors want to see progress made on that plan.

HSBC is the first of Britain's big banks to report and should show a pretax profit for the six months to the end of June of $10.9 billion, compared with $11.1 billion a year earlier, according to the average of forecasts from 12 banks and brokerages polled by Reuters.

Earnings will be hurt by a slump in fixed income trading in the second quarter, which has hit rivals including Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX) particularly hard. Revenue from HSBC's global banking and markets unit is likely to fall 8 percent on the year to $10 billion, analysts at Citi forecast.

A stuttering U.S. economy could also slow the improvement in bad debts at HSBC's U.S. consumer loans portfolio, which it is running down, analysts said.

Gulliver unveiled his far-reaching plan in May to slash costs and cut back in retail banking to revive flagging profits and returns.

Gulliver intends to sell HSBC's U.S. credit card portfolio, which has more than $30 billion in assets, a move which would free up capital. Capital One Financial Corp (COF.N) and Wells Fargo (WFC.N) are among the bidders, sources have said.

Another suitor could be Barclays (BARC.L).

HSBC is also looking to sell upstate New York branches as it shrinks its network of 475 U.S. branches. Altogether it is looking to sell, shut or slim down retail banking in 39 countries. So far, it has said it will exit Russia and Poland.

The bank is likely to axe thousands of jobs as part of the overhaul, but it is probably too early to see an improvement in the cost line, analysts said.

Pretax profit will include a negative adjustment on the value of debt the bank carries, expected to be around $600 million. Underlying profit of $11.5 billion would be up almost a fifth from a year ago.

 

[EmpireGlobalfx]

ECN

Definition

Electronic Communication Network. An electronic system that brings buyers and sellers together for the electronic execution of trades. It disseminates information to interested parties about the orders entered into the network and allows these orders to be executed. Electronic Communications Networks (ECNs) represent orders in NASDAQ stocks; they internally match buy and sell orders or represent the highest bid prices and lowest ask prices on the open market. The benefits an investor gets from trading with an ECN include after-hours trading, avoiding market makers (and their spreads), and anonymity (which is often important for large trades).

 

[EmpireGlobalfx]

MAM module carries on several thousands of USD of investment. Professional traders can obtain their own MAM module for free with EmpireGlobalfx Broker and enjoy exclusive features:

- Full ECN environment with access to deep liquidity pools.
- Nearly 400 instruments available for trading. Including currency pairs, commodities, shares, metals, indices and ETF's.
- INSTANT EXECUTION of orders. That is, the moment you click.
- Scalping, hedging, EA's allowed with NO RESTRICTION. Pure ECN experience.
- VERY TIGHT variable spreads. Contact us for a full list of spreads.
- Exclusive promotions and services for your customers. Offer a class A investment service including our upcoming INSTANT payment debit cards.

Contact us and start your own money-management business directly in the real market!

 

[EmpireGlobalfx]

Top lawmakers seal debt deal but hurdles remain

(Reuters) - President Barack Obama on Sunday announced a last-minute deal to raise the U.S. borrowing limit and urged lawmakers to "do the right thing" and approve the proposed agreement to avert a catastrophic default.

Laying out the endgame in the crisis just two days before a deadline to lift the U.S. debt ceiling, the White House and both Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress said the compromise would cut about $2.4 trillion from the deficit over the next 10 years.

Now that top lawmakers have sealed a deal, both the Senate and House of Representatives are expected to vote on Monday. While Senate approval is likely, the agreement's fate may be less certain in the House.

After weeks of acrimonious impasse and with the final outcome hinging on support from recalcitrant lawmakers, Obama pressured both sides to carry to fruition the accord hammered out behind closed doors.

"The leaders of both parties in both chambers have reached an agreement that will reduce the deficit and avoid default -- a default that would have had a devastating effect on our economy," Obama told reporters at the White House.

"I want to urge members of both parties to do the right thing and support this deal with your votes over the next few days," Obama said.

The plan involved a two-step process for reducing the U.S. deficit. The first phase calls for about $900 billion in spending cuts over the next decade and the next $1.5 trillion in savings must be found by a special congressional committee. Congress must act by December 23, 2011, under the deal.

Republicans had insisted on deep spending cuts before they would consider raising the $14.3 trillion limit on U.S. borrowing, turning a normally routine legislative matter into a dangerous game of brinkmanship.

Financial markets showed immediate signs of relief after becoming unnerved in recent days as lawmakers neared an August 2 deadline to raise the limit on America's borrowing or risk the world's largest economy running out of money to pay its bills.

The Japanese stock index rose 1.8 percent, U.S. stock futures built on earlier gains and the U.S. dollar rose modestly against the yen and the Swiss franc. Gold fell more than 1 percent, indicating investors had begun to shift out of safe havens.

"For the rally to be durable, markets will need more than this downpayment agreement," said Mohamed El-Erian, co-chief investment officer at PIMCO, the world's biggest bond fund.

"They will look to a more coherent fiscal reform to emerge from the second step and, more generally, for additional measures to remove structural impediments to growth and jobs," he said.

While the deal means the United States is unlikely to default, it is far from certain whether the plan agreed by the White House and lawmakers goes far enough in reducing the deficit to appease credit ratings agency S&P, which has threatened to strip America of its top-notch AAA rating.

A deal would ease the immediate crisis but repercussions will be felt for years to come. Bitter brinkmanship has turned dysfunction seemingly into the norm in Washington, undercut America's stature as the world's capitalist superpower and set the stage for a deeply ideologically 2012 presidential race when President Barack Obama is seeking re-election.

SELLING THE DEAL

Congressional leaders will now have to gauge whether they have the votes to pass the deal -- which has sharp spending cuts and no new taxes -- in the Senate and the House. In the house the political calculus is complicated by the entrenched opposition of some members affiliated with the conservative Tea Party movement.

House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, who will face opposition from those conservatives in his ranks, told Republicans he backed the accord but that it was not the "greatest deal in the world." Already, some conservatives in his party said they would not sign on.

Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, a leading liberal considered crucial to delivering enough Democratic votes to offset Republican defections, suggested earlier that the terms under negotiation would be a tough sell in her party.

But in the Senate, passage appeared more certain.

"I am relieved to say that leaders from both parties have come together for the sake of our economy to reach a historic, bipartisan compromise," Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid said on the Senate floor.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell followed, saying: "We can assure the American people tonight that the United States of America will not for the first time in our history default on its obligations," McConnell said.

 

[EmpireGlobalfx]

Euro falls more than 1 percent versus dollar

Aug 1 (Reuters) - The euro extended declines against the dollar to hit a more than one-week low on Monday, as stock losses and weak U.S. manufacturing data dented risk appetite.

The euro fell as low as $1.4190 on trading platform EBS EUR=EBS, the weakest since July 21. It was last at $1.4198, down 1.4 percent

 

[EmpireGlobalfx]

Putin says U.S. is "parasite" on global economy

(Reuters) - Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin accused the United States Monday of living beyond its means "like a parasite" on the global economy and said dollar dominance was a threat to the financial markets

"They are living beyond their means and shifting a part of the weight of their problems to the world economy," Putin told the pro-Kremlin youth group Nashi while touring its lakeside summer camp some five hours drive north of Moscow.

"They are living like parasites off the global economy and their monopoly of the dollar," Putin said at the open-air meeting with admiring young Russians in what looked like early campaigning before parliamentary and presidential polls.

US President Barack Obama earlier announced a last-ditch deal to cut about $2.4 trillion from the U.S. deficit over a decade, avoid a crushing debt default and stave off the risk that the nation's AAA credit rating would be downgraded.

The deal initially soothed anxieties and led Russian stocks to jump to three-month highs, but jitters remained over the possibility of a credit downgrade.

"Thank god," Putin said, "that they had enough common sense and responsibility to make a balanced decision."

But Putin, who has often criticized the United States' foreign exchange policy, noted that Russia holds a large amount of U.S. bonds and treasuries.

"If over there (in America) there is a systemic malfunction,

this will affect everyone," Putin told the young Russians.

"Countries like Russia and China hold a significant part of their reserves in American securities ... There should be other reserve currencies."

U.S.-Russian ties soured during Putin's 2000-2008 presidency but have warmed significantly since his protégé and successor President Dmitry Medvedev responded to Obama's stated desire for a "reset" in bilateral relations.

EARLY CAMPAIGNING?

Casually dressed in khaki trousers and a striped white shirt, Putin flew by helicopter to the tented camp as part of a string of appearances that are being closely watched in the run-up to the elections.

He did not say whether he plans a return to the Kremlin or will stand aside for Medvedev, his partner in Russia's leadership tandem, to run for a second term.

But young people crowding round Putin, caught up in the campaigning spirit created by huge portraits of Putin hung from trees, were not shy about saying who they wanted as president.

"Russia's next president will be small, bald and look like Putin," 17-year-old Ilya Mzokov joked with reporters. Asked why Medvedev was not paying a visit to the summer camp, he said: "Only serious people come here."

Youngsters chanted Putin's name and applauded his remarks as he strolled round the camp, where US-style business seminars, extreme sports and political mudslinging were among the topics on offer.

Putin, whose macho image appeals to many Russians, briefly swung himself up the first half of a climbing wall, filmed by a gaggle of state television cameras.

Nashi, which means "Our People," was created by the Kremlin to counter popular dissent after youth activism helped topple a pro-Moscow government in Ukraine's 2005 Orange revolution.

The group has worked to spread a personality cult around Putin and regularly campaigns against Kremlin critics.

Opinion polls show Putin, still widely viewed as the country's paramount leader, retains near 70 percent approval.

But his United Russia party is trying to reverse a slide in popularity before December parliamentary polls, hoping to use a strong showing there to help Putin in the March 2012 presidential vote.

 

[EmpireGlobalfx]

U.S. rating at risk of negative outlook: Fitch

(Reuters) - Fitch Ratings does not rule out slapping a negative outlook on the U.S. AAA rating when it concludes a review of the country later this month, the agency's top analyst for the United States said on Tuesday.

David Riley told Reuters in an interview that the ongoing review will take into account the "positive" outcome of a debt agreement achieved by lawmakers on Tuesday and prospects for the U.S. economy, which have disappointed Fitch.

"The downward revisions of the GDP were bigger than we expected and a source of concern," Riley said. "There could be a rating action which could include a revision of the outlook. I certainly couldn't rule that out."

Riley stressed that the debt deal agreed by Republicans and Democrats in Washington -- which avoided an imminent debt default and promised deficit reduction measures of at least $2.1 trillion over 10 years -- is a positive development but "won't be enough to stabilize the level of public debt" in relation to the size of the U.S. economy.

He said Fitch gave a "partial thumbs up" to the plan.

The deal includes initial spending cuts of 917 billion and additional savings of $1.5 trillion that will be recommended by a congressional committee by the end of the year.

"Even if the congressional committee is successful and agree on 1.5 trillion (in deficit-reduction measures), more will likely be required to be agreed over the coming years," Riley said.

 

[EmpireGlobalfx]

Moody's confirms U.S. rating at Aaa, outlook negative

(Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday confirmed its Aaa rating
of the United States, citing the decision to raise the debt limit, but assigned a negative outlook that could pressure lawmakers to cut the U.S. deficit.

Moody's decision came a few hours after rival Fitch Ratings upheld its AAA rating of the United States. Fitch also warned the world's largest economy must cut its debt burden to avoid a future downgrade.

Standard & Poor's, which many predict will cut its rating, has yet to give its opinion of the deficit reduction and debt ceiling deal hammered out in Washington and signed into law on Tuesday.

S&P, like Moody's prior to Tuesday's decision, also had the rating on review for a possible downgrade. Moody's negative outlook means a downgrade is still possible in the next 12 to 18 months.

The budget deal allows the U.S. Treasury to keep servicing U.S. debt obligations, pay soldiers and make social security payments.

"Today's agreement is a first step toward achieving the long-term fiscal consolidation needed to maintain the US government debt metrics within Aaa parameters over the long run," Moody's said in a statement.

With the debt ceiling issue solved, the agency is now focusing on the long-term challenges to U.S. public finances, burdened by a deficit that has reached about 9 percent of the country's economy -- close to the highest since World War II.

The Senate approved the $2.1 trillion deficit-reduction plan in a 74 to 26 vote. It passed the Republican-controlled House of Representatives on Monday, warding off the specter of a catastrophic U.S. debt default.

The bill lifts the debt ceiling enough to last beyond the November 2012 elections, calls for $2.1 trillion in spending cuts spread over 10 years and creates a bipartisan joint House and Senate committee to recommend a deficit-reduction package by late November. It does not include any tax increases.

Moody's said that while the combination of the congressional committee process and automatic triggers provides a mechanism to induce fiscal discipline, this framework is untested.

"They are simply saying they are waiting to see what develops with the new deficit budget commission. It is certainly reasonable given the U.S.'s fiscal position. Now that we are past the deficit issue, the fiscal issues over the long run will be the story," John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.

U.S. markets were closed by the time Moody's issued its decision.

The dollar, already falling against the Swiss franc after weak economic data, fell to an all-time low in the wake of Fitch's statement. However, the greenback held steady against the euro, which is struggling with a sovereign debt crisis of its own.

"Because it had been discussed as a possibility, I think the market was ready for this (Moody's). The market is now much more focused on the employment number on Friday morning and economic fundamentals and how deep is this soft patch. The U.S. market is focused on Europe, the weakness in Europe and on Friday's number," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark, New Jersey.

On Friday the U.S. jobs report is forecast to show 85,000 new jobs were created in July, up slightly from the prior month with the unemployment rate holding steady at a hefty 9.2 percent.

"As the U.S. economy slows down, the deficit reduction is not a real deficit reduction, because GDP ends up being lower so the debt reduction ends up being smaller," said Aroop Chatterjee, currency strategist at Barclays Capital in New York.

"That is an additional factor on the minds of markets when they are looking at this, in terms of the debt deal, is what is done in Congress really meaningful in keeping the probability of a downgrade low? And in our view, the probability of a downgrade continues to be pretty high," he said.

 

[EmpireGlobalfx]

Japan keeps up warnings on yen after U.S. debt deal

(Reuters) - Japan tried to keep yen bulls on guard on Wednesday, with finance minister repeating his warning that he was closely watching markets after the currency shot near record highs early this week.

The yen held broadly steady against the dollar as recent repeated jawboning from Japanese authorities kept markets wary of intervention to weaken the currency while a deal to raise the U.S. debt limit eased the pressure on the U.S. currency.

Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said he welcomed the congressional approval of the deal and would monitor market reaction to the agreement that averted a catastrophic default but did not remove the risk of credit downgrades.

"I would like to closely watch how markets assess (the U.S. agreement on debt)," Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda told reporters. He declined to comment on whether Tokyo would intervene in the currency market.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa may discuss steps to address the strong yen when they meet at a regular gathering of cabinet ministers to discuss risks to the economy, to be held around noon.

Noda and Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano will also be present at the meeting, which Shirakawa will attend as an observer.

Moody's Investors Service said it had confirmed the United States' top AAA rating but assigned it a negative outlook after lawmakers passed a deal to raise the U.S. borrowing limit and reduce the deficit.

The yen hovered around 77.25 to the dollar, after it soared on Monday within a hair's breadth of March's record high at 76.25 to the dollar.

Despite the debt agreement, the dollar was unable to make much headway, weighed down by worries about the health of the U.S. economy following a batch of dour data.

Markets also wait for possible action by ratings agency Standard & Poor's, which has yet to give its opinion of the debt deal hammered out in Washington that many predict will include a cut in its top rating for the world's biggest economy.

Japan has been priming the markets for currency intervention since the yen tested its record high, signaling it may try to tame the currency with a combination of yen-selling and monetary easing.

Noda has made plain that the yen was too strong for Tokyo's taste and has said he was in discussions with the Bank of Japan and international partners about the yen's strength.

Japanese officials fear that the currency's near 5 percent surge in the past month will harm the economy, which skid into its second recession in three years following the March earthquake and tsunami.

The Bank of Japan will probably ease its monetary policy if the finance ministry decided to intervene and sell yen, sources familiar with the central bank's thinking have told Reuters. The central bank is due to review its policy on August 4-5.

As renewed concerns about a slowing global economy rattled financial markets, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell for a second day on Wednesday, providing an additional headache to Japanese policy makers.

Japan last intervened in concert with the Group of Seven in March when expectations of fund repatriation after the earthquake pushed the yen to a record high.

This time, most market players believe Japan would have to go it alone since the yen's gains are more about dollar weakness than anything else. Tokyo last acted solo in September 2010, when it sold 2.1 trillion yen.

 

[EmpireGlobalfx]

Very interesting article from colleague trader.

How to choose the right broker?
The most common and most important question for every trader!
Every broker is good – until you won’t make some substantial profit. At that point you will ask
yourself whether you chose the right broker because your broker will not pay you the profit or
because you will suddenly experience some very strange behaviour when trading. From this
point on your account will be 'flagged' and the broker will turn on all add-ons and applications
which will trade against you. And there is more! A lot more!

First filter: If the broker is not ECN/STP then they will trade against you. We call such brokers
the market makers. Just read their agreement which you have to sign when you open a trading
account with them and you will find that they are a counter party. With your acceptance of their
agreement you actually agree that they will trade against you. When you trade with them you
are playing with numbers only and you do not trade on the market at all. If you win – they lose
and that is why they will not allow you to make any serious profit.
Unfortunately these days you can find that few of those bucket shop brokers are starting to
offer ECN trading too: It could be real but we can’t believe them. 99% possibility is - with their
ECN platform they are NOT on the market either. Have they stolen enough money from the
traders and can change their ways? NO! They invented one more way to steal your money only!

So there are a few more filters to avoid such scammers:
2. If a broker is offering funding through electronic payment processors like Liberty Reserve,
Money Bookers (and similar) or e-gold even – it is not real. There is no market in the world
where you can use electronic money to buy stocks or trade with options, futures or forex. All
these markets recognize hard cash only. A real broker will not risk the time and unknown and
unpredictable costs to exchange that funny electronic money for real money. A real broker has
to deposit real money and nothing else to their liquidity provider to cover the margin.

3. Avoid brokers who offer financial bonuses. It is stated in every agreement that nobody can
add or withdraw money to/from your account. So how can they add funds to your account?
They will not add a penny. They will only change the Balance number on your trading account.
But those are numbers, not money: Don’t forget – you are not on the market with such brokers.
You just play a game with numbers against your broker.
Let us say you have some experience with forex already. And now think: have you ever seen an
offer for a financial bonus from any of the real, already recognized safe and reputable brokers?
No? Of course not: They are in business between you and their liquidity provider. They live on a
tiny part of spread or commission and not from scamming retail traders. So there is no place for
3 or 5 or even 20% of bonuses on every deposit.
Under the same category there is also the too low spread or even zero spread: Those scammers
are not on the market so they can give to you whatever spread, even zero. Because they do not
pay a commission to a bank, they do not hold your deposits with liquidity providers. Have you
ever heard of any free bank service? No? Of course not! Bankers are the richest in the world
because you are paying them all the time! And it is the same with liquidity providers who are
paid from spread too so zero or extremely low spreads on the real market do not exist. And a
real broker has to live on some part of the spread/commission too. The conclusion is very
simple: Spread on eur/usd below 1 pip is a fairy tale or scam.
Your broker has a fixed spread? For sure it is market maker then and they manipulate price. On
real market spread is changing every second! Spread depends from trading volume: Bigger is
volume – lower is spread. So logically – fixed spread doesn’t exist!

4. If you are already trading and are constantly receiving error messages like ‘requote’, ‘wait’,
‘trading context is busy’, ‘quote is accepted’, ‘request is in process’ and so on – you are trading
against a classic scamming broker. These errors do not exist on the real market with real
liquidity providers. Every liquidity provider tries to execute any transaction instantly and as fast
is possible: there are simply always a few traders on the other side who are trying to open an
opposite position from you. The part of retail trading is still so small that lot size we trade it
seems maybe big for us but in reality on that $4 trillion daily turnover – means nothing. So – if
you are receiving the above mentioned errors it is because the software of the trading platform
looks for the worst price which can be delivered to you, nothing else.
Your broker doesn’t allow scalping? Or you have to place SL & TP order 5 or even 10 pips away
from market price? They have dealing desk and they trade against you hard!
Your broker doesn’t allow Expert Advisors (EA)? Or your EA is working properly on demo but on
real account does not? Run away! Your broker is scammer and they will steal your money!

5. Why is there such a small number of ECN/STP brokers on the market? The answer is simple:
95% to 98% of all retail traders are losing only. So if you decide to open a brokerage company
– which form will you choose? Why would you choose the hard way of looking for liquidity
providers, one where you even have to deposit $10 million on their account just so they are
willing to give you their feed? On the other hand, when you are one of those thief brokers you
just need to make a nice web page and buy a license from Meta Quotes… and you are in
business! Whichever math you do – the payouts to those 2% of winning retail traders can easily
be covered with 20 or 30% of the losers… and the rest of the deposits are pure profit for bucket
shop brokers.

6. EVERY broker is good until the retail trader is losing or he/she is trading with a small account.
But what happens if you make some significant profit with one of those scamming brokers?
Below you can read about the experience from only one good trader; we do not want to bother
you with many examples. Should we publish all the stories we know from the successful traders
– you would realize that there is no broker – market maker – who will pay you out if your profit
is a little bit bigger.

7. We know you have one more question… Most of the brokers who scammed our successful
trader from article 6 are regulated by NFA or FSA or any other regulation bodies… How is it
possible that those brokers did not pay out the profit? This thing about the regulation is just one
big misunderstanding: if a broker has a NFA number that does not mean any security for your
funds at all. Regulators do not deal with your money! Brokers are just members of NFA under
some number and all they have to do is accept some rules from these regulatory bodies, which
does not mean they will pay out your deposit or profit. And if broker – market maker – has a
NFA number – it will still be your counter party and it will trade against you. And if a broker
disappears tomorrow or goes bankrupt – the regulatory will not pay a cent. The brokers know
that almost nobody will take legal action against them because it is too expensive, especially if
the retail trader is not from the country where the broker is registered.

There is more… but these few filters and facts that we have mentioned above are so obvious
that every beginner can recognize them easily. We hope you now know that only ECN/STP
broker and brokers with direct access to interbank liquidity are the right choice if you want to
protect your money!

 

[EmpireGlobalfx]

SNB cuts rates as safe-haven Swiss franc soars

(Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank announced a shock cut in interest rates and threatened more action to cap a soaring Swiss franc, but was seen fighting a losing battle as investors seek respite from debt crises elsewhere.

The SNB said on Wednesday it would cut its target rate to "as close to zero as possible" from an already rock-bottom 0.25 percent, and said it would very significantly increase the supply of francs to the money market over the next few days.

It said it would not tolerate the effective tightening of monetary conditions imposed by what it called a "massively overvalued" franc which was threatening economic growth and increasing downside risks to price stability.

"The SNB is keeping a close watch on developments on the foreign exchange market and will take further measures against the strength of the Swiss franc if necessary," the bank said.

The euro shot up in response, gaining 2.5 percent on the day versus its Swiss counterpart after hitting a new record low before the SNB news. The dollar also rose sharply. But analysts said that trend could prove temporary.

"These measures will probably not bring a halt to the Swiss franc's appreciation," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon. "It will be a hard fought battle for the SNB and at most this will slow the pace of appreciation."

With low-debt Switzerland seen as a safe haven from an escalating euro zone debt crisis and fears of a U.S. rating downgrade, the franc has surged 18 percent against the euro and 22 percent against the dollar in recent months.

The SNB is the first central bank to cut rates since the global economic outlook deteriorated with expectations for higher rates from the European Central Bank and U.S. Federal Reserve pushed back since signs emerged of a new slowdown.

"It's a very difficult situation for them with the ongoing issues in the periphery in Europe. The Swiss franc is a sort of default option here," said Henrik Gullberg of Deutsche Bank.

"That is unlikely to go away as long as we have these issues in Europe.

SWISS EXPORTERS SQUEEZED

Swiss exporters have called on both the SNB and the government to take action against its steep rise although the bank has also been criticized for the heavy losses it incurred in its post-crisis interventions in 2009 and 2010.

Nick Hayek, chief executive of watch maker Swatch, who has been one of the most outspoken about the impact of the strong franc, welcomed the SNB move. "This is wonderful. Speculators should brace themselves," he told Reuters.

In contrast to a fall on most European markets, the Swiss blue-chip index was up 0.6 percent after the SNB news.

The SNB said in a statement the global economic outlook had worsened since its last monetary policy meeting in June, while the sharp rise in the franc meant the outlook for the Swiss economy had "deteriorated substantially."

The euro was up 2.5 percent to 1.1116 at 0918 GMT after hitting a record low of 1.0794 on trading platform EBS before the SNB comments. The dollar rose to 0.7764 franc from around 0.7630.

After the Swiss franc rose about 12 percent against the euro in July alone, economists began to warn that a recession could be looming in Switzerland with forward-looking indicators such as the KOF economic barometer pointing to a slowdown.

The strong franc has also begun to hit the manufacturing sector, data for July showed on Tuesday.

Analysts said the SNB could resume the foreign exchange interventions it stopped in June 2010, even though its previous attempts were seen by many as an expensive failure.

"Maybe the threat of intervention will force people to look for other potential safe havens," said Lloyds Banking Group currency strategist Adrian Schmidt.

The SNB announced last week it suffered a 9.9 billion Swiss franc ($12.8 billion) first-half loss on its foreign exchange holdings due to the surging franc, increasing criticism of Chairman Philipp Hildebrand and making interventions politically more difficult.

Christoph Blocher, a leading figure in the right-wing Swiss People's Party, who has already called on Hildebrand to quit, launched a new attack on Sunday, saying the SNB boss behaved like a speculator and was not qualified for the job.

Before the big franc jump, Swiss interest rate futures had priced in the possibility of a first post-crisis rate hike for September, but Wednesday's news pushed back expectations for a rise in the rate target to 0.5 percent to June 2013.

To increase liquidity to the franc money market, the SNB also said it would expand banks' sight deposits at the SNB and would no longer renew repos and SNB bills that fall due and will repurchase outstanding SNB bills.

 

[EmpireGlobalfx]

Tech bounces as S&P 500 erases losses

(Reuters) - Stocks bounced from earlier losses on Wednesday, looking to break a seven-day run of declines as technology shares gained ground .

Earlier in the day, pessimism about the U.S. economic outlook took the S&P 500 to a new low for the year and led to predictions of an extended down leg in the market. The Nasdaq briefly turned negative for the year.

"A lot of us are saying the market had reached a bit of an oversold area," said Rich Ilczyszyn, senior market strategist with MF Global in Chicago.

Technology shares led the bounce, with the S&P technology index .GSPT up 0.7 percent.

Traders also said buyers came into the market after comments from former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, who told the Wall Street Journal the Fed could consider a new round of stimulus to help the economy.

Driving the early losses was data showing the U.S. services sector fell in July to its lowest level since February 2010, while new U.S. factory orders fell in June, pulled down by weak demand for transportation equipment.

The news followed weaker-than-expected manufacturing data earlier this week, creating more angst about a pullback in the recovery.

"If anything (the stock market move) is probably just a short cover," said David Lutz, managing director of trading at Stifel Nicolaus Capital Markets, Baltimore. He said many traders were possibly searching for bargains after days of losses.

The Dow Jones industrial average markets/index?symbol=us%21dji">.DJI was down 25.47 points, or 0.21 percent, at 11,841.15. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 0.57 point, or 0.05 percent, at 1,254.62. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 12.46 points, or 0.47 percent, at 2,681.70.

 

[EmpireGlobalfx]

Japan acts to tame yen, follows Swiss move on franc

(Reuters) - Japan sold one trillion yen ($12.6 billion) and its central bank eased monetary policy on Thursday, joining Switzerland in efforts to tame currencies buoyed by safe-haven demand from investors fretting about the health of the global economy.

The intervention in Asia and London pushed the yen well beyond 79.50 yen to the dollar, a two week low, from around 77.10 and Japan's Economy Minister Kaoru Yosano said policymakers were likely to meet either at Group of Seven or Group of Twenty level to discuss currencies.

Tokyo's action followed days of official warnings that the yen had risen so much that it threatened to derail Japan's recovery from the destruction wrought by the March 11 magnitude 9.0 earthquake, a deadly tsunami and an ensuing nuclear crisis.

Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said Japan had consulted its international partners, but intervened on its own to stem what it considered speculative and disorderly currency moves.

Hours later, the Bank of Japan took its own action, boosting by half to 15 trillion yen the amount of financial assets it aims to buy under a scheme established in October 2010 to shore up market confidence and support the economy.

"The central bank seems to be working in sync with the finance ministry, and that is different from past times when they eased policy. It's a message that they are willing to act to stop the yen from appreciating further," said Koichi Ono, senior strategist at Daiwa Securities Capital Markets.

Analysts doubted though that even a combination of yen selling and monetary easing could stem a global shift away from the dollar and other riskier assets if Tokyo were to continue acting on its own.

"The yen's advance reflects the difficult economic and fiscal situation of both the U.S. and the euro zone, so even if Japan intervenes in the market, it won't be able to combat the yen's rise in the long run on its own," said Takashi Kamiya, chief economist at T&D Asset Management Co.

A show of coordinated action was important for Prime Minister Naoto Kan and his government, reeling from record low popularity ratings and struggling with the aftermath of Japan's worst disaster in generations and the world's gravest nuclear crisis since Chernobyl 25 years ago.

"Japan is just in the process of recovering from a natural disaster, so these currency moves are certain to have a negative impact on the economy and financial markets," Noda told reporters in justifying the intervention.

Traders said Japan had sold more than one trillion yen in intervention so far on Thursday, a day after the Swiss central bank surprised markets by cutting interest rates to try to weaken the Swiss franc.

Investors have seen the Swiss franc and the yen as a safer refuge among G10 currencies from a deepening euro debt crisis and speculation that the U.S. economy could be slipping into recession.

Analysts said the Swiss rate cut may have spurred Japan into action even as the yen traded below its record high of 76.25 per dollar hit shortly after the March quake.

"Yesterday's monetary easing by Switzerland provided the push because if Japan didn't respond this would push the yen still higher," said Nagayuki Yamagishi, a strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

"A response needed to be taken quickly to head off any further yen strengthening."

The moves by Switzerland and Japan could now put pressure on the European Central Bank, which reviews policy on Thursday, to resume bond buying or other measures, since the euro zone crisis is a major factor behind the rise in the franc and yen.

CENTRAL BANK MOVE

The Bank of Japan, which cut short its scheduled two-day meeting that started on Thursday, left its benchmark rate unchanged at 0-0.1 percent.

With rates pegged near zero, the central bank has been using the size of the asset buying pool as the main gauge of its policy stance.

The release of extra funds in addition to cash spent on foreign currencies, which the central bank looks certain to leave unabsorbed, is seen as a way of making the intervention more effective by boosting yen supply.

Until recently the central bank has sounded confident that it had done enough to support the economy and that Japan would exit recession later this year with the help of reconstruction spending and recovering exports.

But the yen's nearly 5 percent climb over the past month cast doubt on such a scenario and both the government and the central bank have been under growing pressure from Japanese exporters, including Toyota Motor Co, to tame the currency.

Noda declined to comment on the size of the intervention or

say what currencies Japan bought or sold. He would also not say whether Tokyo planned returning to the market, although traders said authorities continued sporadic intervention, including in London. Some said it could eventually add up to a similar amount as 2.1 trillion Tokyo sold in its last solo intervention in September 2010.

Thursday's action has knocked the Japanese currency down around 2.5 yen so far, compared with around 2.8 yen in intervention in September 2010 and in March, when Tokyo acted together with its G7 partners.

The ECB meets to review policy on Thursday with investors hoping President Jean-Claude Trichet will signal a more aggressive approach to fighting the euro zone crisis, for example by hinting at further buying of government bonds in the market.

It may seem ironic that Japan, saddled with public debt twice the size of its $5 trillion economy and struggling with the aftermath of its worst natural disaster in generations, would appeal to risk-shy investors.

However, with the euro area mired in its own debt crisis, Japan's deep financial markets make it one of few viable options, market analysts say.

 

[EmpireGlobalfx]

Euro markets steady ahead of Spain auction, ECB

(Reuters) - Euro zone sovereign bond markets steadied Thursday ahead of a crucial European Central Bank policy-setting meeting that investors hope will signal a more aggressive approach to fighting the currency area's debt crisis.

Yields of Italian and Spanish 10-year bonds fell in early trading before an auction in which Spain planned to sell up to 3.5 billion euros ($5 billion) of government paper after crisis telephone consultations with European Union authorities.

Japanese authorities acted to bring down the strong yen, joining Switzerland in efforts to tame currencies buoyed by safe-haven demand from investors fretting about the health of the global economy and the euro zone's debt woes.

All eyes were on the ECB, with the chief European economist of credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's urging it to re-activate its bond-buying program to stabilize battered euro zone sovereigns.

"Markets are still moving so we need someone to intervene," S&P's Jean-Michel Six said. "The only effective fireman capable of rushing out of the fire station at top speed is the European Central Bank, which has played an admirable role since the start of the crisis to calm markets.

He told France-Inter radio that until a contagion-fighting plan adopted by euro zone leaders last month came into effect, which requires parliamentary approval in some countries, the ECB had to play an interim role.

The controversial ECB program has been dormant for four months and there is strong opposition to reviving it among guardians of central banking orthodoxy in Germany who argue it compromises the core mission of fighting inflation.

The ECB bought 76 billion euros of sovereign bonds, believed to be only Greek, Irish and Portuguese, to stabilize markets last year but critics said the Securities Market Program had only limited, short-term impact and did not prevent any of those countries from requiring EU/IMF bailouts.

Spanish Economy Minister Elena Salgado, speaking on Wednesday night after a crisis meeting on the economy with Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, said the bond sale would take place as scheduled despite a surge in Spanish and Italian bond yields to 14-year highs in the past several days.

"We think the tensions will last a few more days, but the bond auction will go ahead Thursday," Salgado said.

The yield on Spain's 10-year bonds climbed as high as 6.50 percent Wednesday because of investor doubts about Madrid's ability to continue financing its debt over the long term, before drifting back to close at 6.27 percent. It fell a further 21 basis points against benchmark German Bunds in early Thursday trading.

Italy's 10-year yield fell back below the psychologically important 6.0 percent threshold, with some traders saying they expected the ECB could act, either with a longer term repo or secondary market bond-buying.

"DESPERATE"

Analysts say that if yields go much higher and stay there, markets could force Spain, the euro zone's fourth biggest economy, to follow Greece, Ireland and Portugal in seeking an international bailout.

"Hearing Zapatero had canceled his holidays showed the situation was desperate. The 7 percent (yield) mark is a psychological barrier and is just not sustainable because it's far too costly to finance at these levels," said Jo Tomkins, analyst at consultancy 4Cast.

Euro zone leaders agreed at a summit last month to give the bloc's bailout fund sweeping new powers to help indebted states and intervene in the bond market, but the changes are unlikely to be passed by national parliaments until late September at the earliest.

If the ECB does not revive the program, central bank president Jean-Claude Trichet may at least indicate willingness to use it if the crisis worsens, some analysts believe.

The ECB, which has raised official interest rates twice this year, may also signal it will put any further tightening on hold because of slowing economic growth in the euro zone and globally, even though inflation is well above target.

Japan sold one trillion yen ($12.6 billion) and its central bank eased monetary policy Thursday to try to push down the yen against the dollar and euro.

Economy Minister Kaoru Yosano said policymakers of major economies needed to discuss currencies at either Group of Seven or Group of 20 level -- the first official call for multilateral action since twin crises over U.S. and euro zone debt became acute last month.

Official sources in several G7 countries said Wednesday they were not aware of any move so far to involve the G7 or G20, but that France, which holds the chair of both groups this year, might consult those forums if the turmoil persists.

In Italy, the euro zone's third biggest economy, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi promised Wednesday to step up economic reforms and called for a broad-based effort in the country to fight the market turmoil.

"The government and parliament will act, I hope, with a large political and social consensus to fight every threat to our financial stability. Today more than ever, we need to act all together," said Berlusconi, in a speech which did not give substantial new details on policy.

Berlusconi is due to meet employers' groups and unions on Thursday to try to thrash out a plan to stimulate the economy. But the head of the largest union, the left-wing CGIL, responded coolly to his speech.

Susanna Camusso said it lacked concrete proposals, and that negotiations were already "getting off on the wrong foot." The leader of the opposition Democratic party, Pierluigi Bersani, said Berlusconi should resign.

In addition to Italy and Spain, some investors are becoming jittery about the finances of France, the euro zone's second biggest economy. The spread of 10-year French government bonds above German Bunds hit a euro lifetime high of 0.81 percentage point Wednesday.

This is problematic partly because any lasting solution to the euro zone's crisis may have to involve a drastic expansion of its 440 billion euro bailout fund. That would put a greater financial burden on France, a big contributor to the fund, and could push up its yields further.

 

[EmpireGlobalfx]

GM profit nearly doubles on stronger pricing

(Reuters) - General Motors Co's quarterly profit nearly doubled, beating expectations, as the top U.S. automaker took a larger share of sales globally and raised prices on its vehicles.

Coming out of bankruptcy, GM Chief Executive Dan Akerson and other executives said the company had stripped out enough costs to recession-proof the business so it could thrive even in a weak auto market. The industry's sales slump in the second quarter and the risk of a double-dip recession could provide the first major test for that claim.

GM Chief Financial Officer Dan Ammann called the quarter a "good building block" for the company.

GM is pushing heavily into smaller, more fuel-efficient cars like the popular Chevrolet Cruze, but a good portion of its profit still relies heavily on sales of more profitable trucks in the U.S. market.

Net income in the second quarter rose to $2.52 billion, or $1.54 per share, from $1.33 billion, or 85 cents per share, a year earlier.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S had expected $1.20 per share on average.

Revenue rose 19 percent to $39.4 billion, above the $36.74 billion analysts had expected during a quarter in which U.S. auto sales hit a soft patch.

GM shares rose 2 percent in premarket trading.

The results represent the second full quarter since GM's initial public stock offering last November and a restructuring intended to keep the largest U.S. automaker profitable through the industry's punishing boom-and-bust cycles.

GM emerged from bankruptcy in 2009 after a $52 billion taxpayer-funded bailout orchestrated by the Obama administration. The U.S. Treasury still owns 32 percent of GM's common shares.

The company boosted its second-quarter earnings before interest and taxes by $1 billion by pushing through higher prices on its vehicles globally.

However, those gains came as its Japanese rivals, led by Toyota Motor Corp, struggled with fewer vehicles to sell due to the earthquake in Japan in March.

Analysts worry that if the U.S. recovery hits a pothole in the second half, GM could be forced to raise incentives on its vehicles to lure shoppers. GM's first-quarter results were marred by heavy incentives, but the automaker dialed back those deals.