Journal Take 2 - Chart Patterns

[natureboy]

Suppose it better to say "back with setup" singular. Haha. Crazy day Thursday's I'm with little people. Makes trading a back burner affair. Tomorrow - I generally skip NFP however I'll be doin scalp setups before then

 

[natureboy]

Day10 Good Morning All

I'm thinking i'll keep this journal going, and probably stop counting how many days i've been doing it.

Time model has 310 and 700 EST. I'm scalping a bounce right now to the long side. May get cut, may make some bread, who knows. Risk is 0.15%, I can live with that. Be back with a look at patterns right now in a handful of markets.

 

[natureboy]

 

[natureboy]

M Patterns are buy setups

W Patterns are short setups

Pattern alone can be one component of a system, others can include - anything! I like Multiple Timeframes, Support/Resistance, Cycles, Relative Strength, Volatility, %R - and others.. System design is wide open really.

The main advantage with the patterns is for programmers - they can 'get hold' of price levels via patterns that aren't identifiable as important through any other method i know of. Test patterns exhaustively, that's exciting. If there's an edge, which i believe there is here, it can be found scientifically.

Here's a system idea for you: 1hr ADX early trending, Enter on the first Corrective Pattern (uptrend look for an M) on a 2m-15m Chart. Risk 0.5% per entry, enter on a 25% retrace of the pattern. Trail out or go for a 1:1 target (meaning trend prior to correction on 2m-15m, take the price range, and then project that range from the entry pattern D point to give you an equality target, or go for 62% instead of 100%). See if that has good metrics for you. Sounds like a winner to me.

 

[natureboy]

recent past... the 310 low

 

[natureboy]

I'll try to have the 710 area covered with patterns in advance if any happen moving into that time.

Here's a picture of the 1hr ADX 5m Pattern Concept:





May not be as many trades with this one, although the setup makes sense. Yeah? Why put this out there? I look at knowledge differently More people trading it will strengthen the setup. The setup is pretty basic also..

Be back around 6 with some patterns, possibly

 

[natureboy]

Looking for a short near 1.3016, close SL. Really depends on the news here in 20m.. If prices break higher 1.3030, i'll have to re-evaluate the short. EUR strength bullish, however its advanced, may be apt to roll back down soon

 

[natureboy]

Working with EURCAD instead. Small risk on chart and % account, we'll see what the market thinks.. Target 1.2748

 

[natureboy]

Tricky selling tops..



I'm out at 1.2753.. too much bullishness for my discretion..

Sold twice, lost a little on the first, made it back for a +0.7 overall there.

I'll go back over all these trades and calls.. and add it up, see what was possible. My trading and your trading would be very different - i'm still trying to align my trading with what is possible - getting better all the time..

 

[natureboy]

along with most folks, flat awaiting NFP madness. I usually avoid the day all together.. Every so often a clean trend happens, though i find that to be the exception

 

[natureboy]

I'm automating longs on EURUSD right now..

As long as the rate stays above 1.3020..

 

[natureboy]

There's not much steady momentum.. i usually avoid NFP days... At any rate, a maximum upside i'm expecting is 1.3090. For now, i'm entering long and trailing an exit, bullish above 1.3020

 

[natureboy]

There's a support TL, currently about 1.3055.. below that i'll be exiting. For now, trailing higher..

 

[natureboy]

i'm out of the EURUSD. Might be back later - otherwise good weekend all

 

[natureboy]

Big Profitable Good Morning to Everyone

--

Looking at GBPUSD - in retrospect, as typical, two W5 patterns gave excellent selling points in the down move that appears to still be going.



I'm automating short entries into what my day system tells me are trend conditions. I'm expecting a bounce from 1.6065, yet i'm following my trend following rules which have me short from 215 EST. We'll see what happens here..

 

[natureboy]

On the 4hr EUR pattern - here's how that has played out so far:



Important points
1) Currently at a support TL on 4hr, possible up move imminent
2) The move up from the D-Point low of the pattern went beyond 62%, which means there is likely more upside to come.

The stats on the movement % or retracement of A-D price range correlated with continuation or higher targets hit -- are all obtainable. These are objective, recurring price structures folks.

 

[natureboy]

On 15m EURUSD, there is a bullish entry pattern at the support TL.

Time Model has 300-340 as a range within which trend change likely. So, it seems a little early to be buying just yet to me.

Patterns fail - often. There are rules for how to trade them, you can invent your own rules. What they do is give you definite prices and setups that you can test out to develop a system for you. In the right context, e.g. Bull Trend, using the right pattern bias - bullish patterns only -- the failure rate is much lower. So filters are a good idea here. You are more likely to get a good price using retracement patterns provided your trend determination techniques are good... its as simple as that.

 

[natureboy]

Currency meter has me buying Euros, Automating Long EURUSD. Still sitting on GBPUSD, meter has sideways market there.. short and in the red by 3-4 pips in GBPUSD. I hold the short until hit by the Trend Trailing Exit, per my rules. Exiting early sometimes helps.. sometimes makes a small loss instead of a decent profit. My trend rules work, so i'll accept the loss if it hits on GBPUSD.

 

[natureboy]

EURUSD really not supporting that long idea yet.. i'm getting nervous - hopefully that indicates a turn is about to manifest! I'm fearful - i should get out!! - and woop, the market turns in my favor just after i exit.. haha - not today folks. Following zee rules, i'll get out at 1.5% drawdown. I did, actually, forget one element of my system, which required 1.2993 on EURUSD before automating long entries... i think keeping this journal is jacking my mind..

GBPUSD is working so far..

 

[natureboy]

Then again, what's wrong with PPC? Exiting EURUSD.. If it gets above 1.2993, i'll be going long again.