Journal Take 2 - Chart Patterns

[natureboy]

Day system just gave a sell - i'm selling euros now, trailing an exit

It is a weak sell signal, the currency line for EUR closed lower, just barely. I've not defined a threshold ROC for that - i need to

 

[natureboy]

Above 1.2903, its no good. I'll update at 245 EST

 

[natureboy]

Strength condition died.. ending shorts for the day system.

 

[natureboy]

EURUSD buy conditions may close 345 EST, i'll be jumping on that with both feet if the strength closes bullish.

 

[natureboy]

Automating Long entries on EURUSD

 

[natureboy]

Looking at the Daily EURUSD, i can see my friend's point. With that lower TL yet to be reached, EURUSD could easily fall to 1.2700



In doing so the 4hr M12 would fail, however an even larger buy pattern would likely form.

We'll see what happens here folks.

 

[natureboy]

If EURUSD can get up there, i'd be getting cautious around 1.2990. That's the 50% retrace of the bear swing on the daily. There may be no juice for a move, who knows. I've been doing this long enough to know i can't predict exactly what price will do 100% of the time - unless i pull a JPM

 

[natureboy]

M Patterns so far in this up swing..

 

[natureboy]

update.. pattern D point extends lower until the low is in

 

[natureboy]

retail sales seems to bolster this push.. so far so good:

 

[natureboy]

strength is weakening, however the trend indicator is what i follow once in based on initial strength conditions.. taking profits on these pattern trades vs trailing has been ideal lately. I'm a fan of riding trends, but my efficiency has been too low attempting to trade with the trailing. A scale out method would probably work better generally.

You can use targets based on pattern dimensions. For example this last 1m pattern:



Use the A-D range, 1.272 of that range as target in a directional market.

The current PA is bullish above that support line in my view

 

[natureboy]

Another M12 plotting.. Less excited about this one. PA has been moving sideways, Strength has gone flat EUR for the moment on 15m. Watch that support TL..

Around 800 EST something should kick off up or down.

 

[natureboy]

ungh.. i'm out on the long below 1.2918 in EURUSD

FYI - for anyone from the Live Trading thread, i'm doing my trades here where i use automation (its not practical for me to try and type in those prices), i'll be doing my discretionary trades over there.

Peace

 

[natureboy]

Ok, looking for a low in EURUSD. Time model has 800 and 1140 as significant, with possible spike volatility at 750. We'll see..



Crazy M7 from 1.2900.. That would've been a good scalp. Hmm..

I'll be going long once (if) strength clicks Bullish EURUSD

 

[natureboy]

Not looking like a long to me.. getting short

 

[natureboy]

what a day... oof. On a pleasant note i think i now have a better way to take profits

 

[natureboy]

Day..9

Crazy day for me over here. Big Rate Decision news today, not till later fortunately. EURUSD hanging in there.

15m EURUSD pattern from 1500 yesterday (That's my getting ready for sleep time, i missed it):



I'll be back in a bit with some live setups.

 

[natureboy]

Ok folks - the move up so far in EURUSD is in the form of a bearish pattern. If the rate gets up to 1.2960 area, resistance could happen. An outright reversal swing could happen. I would be cautious with long positions at that point. On the other hand if some strong closes above 1.2960 happen, it may be an authentic breakout. I'm waiting until I see some clear price action signal around 1.2960 to do anything.

 

[natureboy]

time model has 420 and 710 EST as significant. Still working on it, if you've been following those times, its clear that its probability, not certainty. With the pattern and potential resistance, typically i go for it, tends to work better than random over a large sample size. So.. unless we get some very strong price action (closes above 1.2970 with no immediate reversal closes on 5 & 15m) then i'm leaning toward a bearish setup here. Could be as wrong as two left shoes, we'll just have to wait! Move is obviously up for now. I've been looking for entry into what i think could be a big uptrend.. that is less potent in my mind due to the Daily TL not being reached yet.. EURUSD could still fall to 1.2700, and then move up. It could do anything folks, forecasting isn't = making money.

 

[natureboy]

EURUSD had a pop down, but since has had a really deep retracement. strength meter is bullish the pair now, just turned .. who knows.