wasp
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Hi wasp,
I have been re-reading your Journal with great interest, mainly because I have recently started using a stop and reverse 60 min candle system, which has great similarities with your use of hma's. What I like is the binary nature of such systems -there is either a signal or no signal. If you are still around, I've a few questions that must also have occurred to you at some point
1. Are you still using this method to trade cable? I ask because this year the characteristics of cable have changed quite markedly, and I wonder if you decided to try your method on other pairs, GBPJPY GBPCHF etc?
2. If you cannot get an entry within your 18 pip self imposed limit, do you just let that leg of the swing go past without you?
3. This is another angle on Q2. I see you are using Oanda, which has pretty flexible position sizing. Could you set chart based stops at the lows of candles beyond your 18 pips limit, and just reduce position size? I am always caught between the dilemma of keeping the risk of every trade at a constant (which is very easy on Oanda because of the flexibility) or keeping the number of units constant, and thus having a fluctuating risk from trade to trade.
I have been re-reading your Journal with great interest, mainly because I have recently started using a stop and reverse 60 min candle system, which has great similarities with your use of hma's. What I like is the binary nature of such systems -there is either a signal or no signal. If you are still around, I've a few questions that must also have occurred to you at some point
1. Are you still using this method to trade cable? I ask because this year the characteristics of cable have changed quite markedly, and I wonder if you decided to try your method on other pairs, GBPJPY GBPCHF etc?
2. If you cannot get an entry within your 18 pip self imposed limit, do you just let that leg of the swing go past without you?
3. This is another angle on Q2. I see you are using Oanda, which has pretty flexible position sizing. Could you set chart based stops at the lows of candles beyond your 18 pips limit, and just reduce position size? I am always caught between the dilemma of keeping the risk of every trade at a constant (which is very easy on Oanda because of the flexibility) or keeping the number of units constant, and thus having a fluctuating risk from trade to trade.
trendie
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I am a little confused.
I have been using 12-HMA on 30-mins, but going back over this journal, the charts are 15-mins!
Is anyone using this, and additionally, are you running 12-HMA on the 15-mins?
thanks
EDIT: I think I know. It was originally for 30-mins, hence the expectation of about 4-5 trader per day. The 15-min results in more than 4-5 trades per day.
I have been using 12-HMA on 30-mins, but going back over this journal, the charts are 15-mins!
Is anyone using this, and additionally, are you running 12-HMA on the 15-mins?
thanks
EDIT: I think I know. It was originally for 30-mins, hence the expectation of about 4-5 trader per day. The 15-min results in more than 4-5 trades per day.
Last edited:
wasp
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FAO Chilltrader
Dave, a market stall owner sold fruit. He sold a lot of oranges. When he first started trading, he sold them for 5p each. They sold better than whisky at an alcoholics anonymous meeting. He put them up to 10p, still sold... 20p, 30p... Obviously good oranges.
At 30p the sales started slowing down, he dropped them to 25p and they were selling again. Dave, being a greedy bugger went to 35p and business was okay. Jumped up to 45p and only a few went here and there. Things started to peak. He dropped back down to 40p, then 35p... business was still slow... He went back down to 30p, things picked up and he saw all his old customers come back. He kept them there for a little while, then as things stayed constant, he started to push prices up again. The same thing happened at 45p as they were again, too expensive.
This time, a stall opened next to him with even juicier oranges. Dave had to drop prices to 30p again but still no good, he had a bit of interest.. but he had to go back to 25p...
Economists and bloomberg analysts said after the event that it was the new stall, the fact it started raining oranges and something else to do with America probably, technical analysts looked at the stats in a chart, saw key levels sat at 25p, 30p, an 45p.
Supply, demand, support, resistance. Call it what you will and view it through FA or TA, but at the end of the day, TA always works.
_________________________
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/pri...lysis-does-not-work-well-used.html#post473263
Dave, a market stall owner sold fruit. He sold a lot of oranges. When he first started trading, he sold them for 5p each. They sold better than whisky at an alcoholics anonymous meeting. He put them up to 10p, still sold... 20p, 30p... Obviously good oranges.
At 30p the sales started slowing down, he dropped them to 25p and they were selling again. Dave, being a greedy bugger went to 35p and business was okay. Jumped up to 45p and only a few went here and there. Things started to peak. He dropped back down to 40p, then 35p... business was still slow... He went back down to 30p, things picked up and he saw all his old customers come back. He kept them there for a little while, then as things stayed constant, he started to push prices up again. The same thing happened at 45p as they were again, too expensive.
This time, a stall opened next to him with even juicier oranges. Dave had to drop prices to 30p again but still no good, he had a bit of interest.. but he had to go back to 25p...
Economists and bloomberg analysts said after the event that it was the new stall, the fact it started raining oranges and something else to do with America probably, technical analysts looked at the stats in a chart, saw key levels sat at 25p, 30p, an 45p.
Supply, demand, support, resistance. Call it what you will and view it through FA or TA, but at the end of the day, TA always works.
_________________________
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/pri...lysis-does-not-work-well-used.html#post473263
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i started reading this journal and i gotta say it's very encouraging seeing a trader unravel
thanks, it gives me confidence
When I first read this I couldn't help but think of the bloke who went into his broker's office and shot everyone
trendie
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aahhh, that takes me back!!
in fact, it reminds me of how easy it is to add extra indicators and get bogged down.
I always liked your approach, wasp, but being a dyed-in-the-wool pull-backer, it reminds me of how I cannibalised your rules for myself.
(all it is, is converting your 30-mins HMA on 1hr to 120 on 15-mins, and then trading the price falling back, and hooking back towards the HMAs. get left behind on strong-moves, but get a low-risk entry into the trend, on the back of momentum. especially, if you feel you missed the initial move, there is always a chance to jump on, on lower time-frame.
forget the two indicators at the bottom, thats new, and even the RSI may be obselete)
(I am not trading for rest of the week, so its mostly analysis for me until Monday)
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wasp
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Damn these addictive markets and forums... its become habit! Glad to be gettin on a plane tomorrow..
Thought it only right to leave on a song though.......
YouTube - Green Day - We Are The Champions Live - Reading
Thought it only right to leave on a song though.......
YouTube - Green Day - We Are The Champions Live - Reading
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