journal of trader formally known as wasp

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week One:

M > -5
T > +5
W> +43
T > +154
F > +18

TTL > 215

week Two:

M > +16
T > +64
W > +74
T > -3
F > +32

TTL > 183

week Three:

M > +47
T > -32
W > +25
T > -25
F > +55

TTL > 70



Stats:

3 weeks
15 days

Trades > 68

Won > 38
Lost > 30

Total pips > 468

________________________________________________
 
wasp said:
Emotions getting in the way of a robust decent plan:

Actually a profitable day but my private hatred for FED days have gotton the better of me and I have just missed the best move of the day.

Had 2 great movers this morning and then the lacklustre efforts during/after Bernanke made me give up after T4. Stupid as I should have taken the fifth but I'd lost all faith this week.

Hopefully I can clear my mind over the weekend and start afresh and anew next week and be emotion free and trade my plan regardless. I do hope we get some movement though...

Don't be too hard on yourself. I almost took the day off, but at the last minute decided what the hell and took it. I pretty much had to.

Friday afternoons in August, on the other hand . . .
 
Hmmm...

worst week out of three and I think I'm over reacting to a lacklustre week. Up 70 on the week it was just the lack of big runs dissapointed and my issues with Bernanke played on my mind.

As Yoder says, pay in/pay out cycle and I know which this week has been...

Time to get away and do something completely different so I can come back monday refreshed and unbiased.

Its funny, once you use the intelligence to perfect a strategy it would actually pay to then become stupid so you can press the button at the right time without thinking of the consequences... Hmmm..

Good weekend all...
 
dbphoenix said:
Don't be too hard on yourself. I almost took the day off, but at the last minute decided what the hell and took it. I pretty much had to.

Friday afternoons in August, on the other hand . . .

Cheers db :)

Sometimes its hard to just keep on and not be dissapointed but you just have to keep on truckin'...
 
wasp said:
Cheers db :)

Sometimes its hard to just keep on and not be dissapointed but you just have to keep on truckin'...

Yes, it is. But you have to keep reminding yourself that the probabilities of the strategy are based on taking every trade. Unless the win rate is in the basement and the profit:loss ratio sucks, it just doesn't pay to cherry-pick. After all, if one could do that, he wouldn't need a strategy in the first place.
 
wasp said:
Time to get away and do something completely different so I can come back monday refreshed and unbiased.

Vad Graifer wrote this a couple of years ago. It's worth keeping at hand.

What to Do About Losing Streaks

1. Stop Trading For a While

Losing streak is most likely to impact your mental state too deep. You just are not ready to go in the battle again. Give yourself a break from tension. Wait for disgust by trading to pass and for curiosity and desire to try it again to return.

2. Trade Careful and Slow

Suppress natural desire to go for revenge and get it all back as fast as possible. Revenge trading wouldn't do any good to you. Trader can't see things clearly when goes for revenge. He wants opportunity to be there and his expectations are enormously high. Right question "what does market have to offer here" changes to wrong one: "what do I need from market".

3. Don't Be Aggressive

Stop looking for a trade! Sounds a bit strange, but the matter is: that desire for revenge is still there, within us, and we have much bigger chance than usually to "see" opportunity where there is none.

Sit and wait for the right trade to yell at you from the screen, for situation where you just can't ignore it - so strongly it feels like winning trade.

4. Maintain Safe Risk Trading

Ignore all the trades that wouldn't allow you to get out with smallest loss possible. You just can't afford any more big losses psychologically, even if you can money wise.

5. Take Action When It's Demanded

When you see the right trade don't second guess it. Just take it, like a machine that programmed to react on certain situation. In a way, try to be numb, not feeling anything. Setup - risk evaluation - trade. Trade doesn't work out - get out. Don't second guess, don't re-evaluate. Even if you get your profit by re-evaluating original plan, it will put that gambling feeling in you that will destroy confidence and self-control. What you need at this situation is total self-control because this is the only thing that can keep you from more hard losses.

6. Take Small Profit, Any Profit

Take relatively small profits not allowing them to disappear.

Yes, I know, it sounds not right: we need to fight the temptation to take small profits, and we need to let them run. But this situation is very specific psychologically and your biggest need is to regain the confidence. Many small profits taken work for this just perfect. Scalping is my way to dig myself out of a hole.


In order to do all this you need to become a machine: cut off all the feelings, forget about counting money, looking at your profits or losses. Just trade in a way that helps you to restore the feeling of being in control. You need to feel that you can take the trade when you see right one, that you can cut the loss as soon as trade shows it, and that you can take the money from the market. In order to achieve this state you have to cut as many external links as possible. What I mean by this: stop discussing your trades with anyone, stop asking questions about what other traders think. Don't tell anyone what you are doing, don't complain and don't explain. When you keep it all within yourself, you regain the power of responsibility.

Feeling that no one is there for you in uncomfortable but it puts you in charge and it means it gives you self control. Not many do it, but think of it this way: not many are successful. It means in order to be successful you have to do something different from what majority does (not really the most original thought in the world, I know). In this case it means: put yourself in charge. Heavy loss or losing streak that caused this situation had a reason. That reason resided within you, not outside. So, in order to prevent this to happen again you have to fix your inner state of mind. You can listen to advice about how to do it but nobody can DO it for you.
 
And this:

3. Morning Tune-up after a Losing Day

Today is a separate day, which has nothing in common with yesterday. Today’s performance is fresh. It is I who have the power to do the right things. The stock market has no power over me. It’s not after me. It has no memory of yesterday, and neither do I. I remember how I feel when I win. I am going to remember this feeling of victory. I can identify and execute winning trades.

 
dbphoenix said:
Vad Graifer wrote this a couple of years ago. It's worth keeping at hand.

What to Do About Losing Streaks

1. Stop Trading For a While

Losing streak is most likely to impact your mental state too deep. You just are not .............................................


Great stuff cheers...

Thankfully the weekend is upon us and it will give me a nice break to seperate myself from the market and come back in the right frame of mind.
 
Ammended Trading plan

Setups and criteria:

>Start ready at 6:30am
>Mark on all S/R levels produced overnight and any others within 200 pip range (only those with no price movement between level and current)
>Take each signal from 7am onwards until 5 trades completed or 8pm
>Enter on MA cross with new candle on or above MA cross
>Trail each position behind S/R levels when new candle produced above/below
>If no pull back to trailing stop, SAR on new opposing setup signal
>No targets and a maximum of 18 pip stoploss (incl. spread) regardless

Additional:

>The 2 days prior and the day including any FED/FOMC announcement will not be traded at all. (the only actual change to plan). (only once has trading this announcement proved profitable. 9/10 the run up and announcement are in no way financially beneficial to me).
>Usual risk and money management rules

*Whilst not bothered about using the dreaded 'indicators', The set ups appearing are making more sense and becoming more obvious to the naked eye and eventually I may well remove the MA's. for the meantime, the 'stabalizers' stay on! :cheesy:
 
Testing

To anyone:

In backtesting you check the validity of a strategy for trading in the future to (hopefully) attain some sort of consisitent decent return.

2 conflicting, no 3 things I have read are -

market behaviour changes
markets go in cycles
backtests are there to show and give an edge

If market behaviour changes, what is the point of testing unless you test every day say since your market ever began, and even then, market behaviour can still change.

Then, if they go in cycles, you'll have good and bad periods (cheers to Yoder) so in the end it'll all work out?

db, I know you often say you should never exceed your backtested maximum losses and if you do, theres something wrong. Would you then say that means its changed enough to exceed, therefore you have to rethink your plan?

I am pretty sure last weeks tightness and excellent rolled up hedgehog impression, was due to little news/pre FED/August, but if next week is equally is bad, is it time to change or is it me being impatient through quiet periods and I should grin and bear it?

Obviously this is my decision but it would be annoying after alot of work for market behaviour to change and to start again only for the whole process to repeat. It would be enough to make you want to never test or have a plan again...
 
wasp said:
To anyone:

In backtesting you check the validity of a strategy for trading in the future to (hopefully) attain some sort of consisitent decent return.

2 conflicting, no 3 things I have read are -

market behaviour changes
markets go in cycles
backtests are there to show and give an edge

If market behaviour changes, what is the point of testing unless you test every day say since your market ever began, and even then, market behaviour can still change.

Then, if they go in cycles, you'll have good and bad periods (cheers to Yoder) so in the end it'll all work out?

db, I know you often say you should never exceed your backtested maximum losses and if you do, theres something wrong. Would you then say that means its changed enough to exceed, therefore you have to rethink your plan?

I am pretty sure last weeks tightness and excellent rolled up hedgehog impression, was due to little news/pre FED/August, but if next week is equally is bad, is it time to change or is it me being impatient through quiet periods and I should grin and bear it?

Obviously this is my decision but it would be annoying after alot of work for market behaviour to change and to start again only for the whole process to repeat. It would be enough to make you want to never test or have a plan again...

Depends on what you're backtesting and how you're backtesting it.

Usually, when people refer to "backtesting", they mean plugging various indicators or whatever patterns can be coded into a computer program and being presented with seemingly important results. Many people consider this exercise to be meaningless and pointless.

However, if you're backtesting in order to define a setup based on S/R or to test the viability of an S/R setup you've already defined, you're going to have to actually look at the charts, by hand, personally. Sometimes you have to look at only a dozen to determine that what you thought was a great setup is really no better than a coin flip. Or you might be encouraged and go on to do a dozen more. Depends.

But if you're backtesting something specific, such as how to trade around Fed announcements, then you select those days on which Fed announcements occur, along with perhaps the two or three days preceding those announcements, and do your backtest using only those charts, going back for as many of these "sets" as you like. Similarly, if you're currently in a trading range, even a broad trading range, then you want to conduct your backtest using those periods that were also in a trading range (backtesting something using charts from a trending market isn't going to tell you much, except perhaps the wrong thing). For example if you were backtesting something in the NQ for current use, just about anywhere in the period from late November '05 to early May '06 would be useful. And that's a lot of charts.

I suppose one could have only one strategy for any market, but why, especially if one can have one primary strategy for, say, non-trending markets, with what might be only a relatively minor modification to alter it to a strategy for trending markets, which might entail nothing more dramatic than changing the stops one uses and where he places them.
 
wasp said:
..............If market behaviour changes, what is the point of testing unless you test every day say since your market ever began, and even then, market behaviour can still change...........

wasp, I'd say that, although market behaviour changes, the essential behaviours do repeat since the fundamental nature of what is essentially an auction market stay the same. The obvious example is uptrend, sideways, downtrend and your backtesting tells you how your strategy is likely to fare in each of those three scenarios.

jon
 
dbphoenix said:
Depends on what you're backtesting and how you're backtesting it.

Usually, when people refer to "backtesting", they mean plugging various indicators or whatever patterns can be coded into a computer program and being presented with seemingly important results. Many people consider this exercise to be meaningless and pointless.

However, if you're backtesting in order to define a setup based on S/R or to test the viability of an S/R setup you've already defined, you're going to have to actually look at the charts, by hand, personally. Sometimes you have to look at only a dozen to determine that what you thought was a great setup is really no better than a coin flip. Or you might be encouraged and go on to do a dozen more. Depends.

But if you're backtesting something specific, such as how to trade around Fed announcements, then you select those days on which Fed announcements occur, along with perhaps the two or three days preceding those announcements, and do your backtest using only those charts, going back for as many of these "sets" as you like. Similarly, if you're currently in a trading range, even a broad trading range, then you want to conduct your backtest using those periods that were also in a trading range (backtesting something using charts from a trending market isn't going to tell you much, except perhaps the wrong thing). For example if you were backtesting something in the NQ for current use, just about anywhere in the period from late November '05 to early May '06 would be useful. And that's a lot of charts.

I suppose one could have only one strategy for any market, but why, especially if one can have one primary strategy for, say, non-trending markets, with what might be only a relatively minor modification to alter it to a strategy for trending markets, which might entail nothing more dramatic than changing the stops one uses and where he places them.

My strat is a combination of MA crosses and S/R so in that essence, it could be shown within 2 weeks whether it is better than a coin toss.

I have never automated a backtest and never would. I have a cynical nature and would need to see each day and trade myself in order to have the confidence in the plan. As for time tested, I'd need a couple of weeks glancing to see if its worthwhile but then I would do 2-3 years to see if there really is an overall profitable edge.

barjon said:
wasp, I'd say that, although market behaviour changes, the essential behaviours do repeat since the fundamental nature of what is essentially an auction market stay the same. The obvious example* is uptrend, sideways, downtrend and your backtesting tells you how your strategy is likely to fare in each of those three scenarios.

jon

I see what your saying Jon and I agree that yes the obivous examples* will always exist but the charecteristics of A to B is where I can see problems existing.

At the moment, based on all the data I have looked through for cable, there have only been problems when there has been periods of slow/quiet rangebound markets or staggered rallies.

Having throughouly tested every day for over 3 years I am confident that there are more good than bad periods and there has never been a run long enough to ruin me (discipline dependant) but its the possibility things could change so dramatically and stay different that bothers me. Partly due to the strat not working but also the wasted hours put in getting it ready for it to change the day you start live trading!

At the moment I can't see it happening but things do change.
 
wasp said:
My strat is a combination of MA crosses and S/R so in that essence, it could be shown within 2 weeks whether it is better than a coin toss.

I have never automated a backtest and never would. I have a cynical nature and would need to see each day and trade myself in order to have the confidence in the plan. As for time tested, I'd need a couple of weeks glancing to see if its worthwhile but then I would do 2-3 years to see if there really is an overall profitable edge.

However, if you're interested specifically in how to play Fed weeks, there's no point in testing non-Fed weeks.
 
Oh no it wasn't a FED week thing, I've allready decided I just won't trade them. It was more a general overall query. Just how do you decide when the market has changed enough that a certain set up won't work (if that is to happen)?
 
wasp said:
Oh no it wasn't a FED week thing, I've allready decided I just won't trade them. It was more a general overall query. Just how do you decide when the market has changed enough that a certain set up won't work (if that is to happen)?

You exceed your longest uninterrupted string of losers (which takes us back to your original question).
 
the Fed

Why is it the more economic calenders I see, the more FED speeches are appearing each week.............. with something on Tuesday and Thursday, my new rule of not trading pre and during FED events would mean doing no trading all week till NFP day which is daft considering everything else happening this week. So its going to have to be trading as per usual...... :devilish:
 
Broker decision

finally.... decision made

I will be opening an account and moving over to interactive brokers as of next week for a trial period...

The shortlist being now...

Interactivebrokers
Oanda
MAN/Refco

So time to test each in live / realtime trading...
 
Last edited:
dbphoenix said:
So if the spread remains constant, the cost is greater as your size increases?

the cost remains constant ie 3 pips, no commission. As size increases the cost remains 3 pips, so no change on a relative basis.......the amount that could be saved by trading a different instrument increases though with size increase.......which is what i was getting at.
 
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