January 2004 - Forex

Hello Everyone!

Well, bad luck with the stop: I moved the stop to protect 50 pips after it was over 130 pips in my favor; stop was at 1.3178 and low was at 1.3177 on retracement from 1.3259...so it took my protective stop, and resumed the move towards 1.3290...now its at 1.3255. So I am out with 50 pips profit.

This was not a stop hunting, although its very unpleasant to see the stop hit and reversal of 100 pips in your direction. All data sources I checked showed low of /77 or /78, so there is no room to talk with brokers. Well, after all, its +50 pips...


Ok, that's it for now,

cheers
 
EUR/USD GAP
=========
1.2635 - 1.2592, 43 points UP


These big gaps dont show up that often but when they do the 40 pointers get filled. Over the next fwe days I would expect the € to at least approach 2635. Currently 1.2500, small gap to pass at 2530 and that should be a first target.
 
All data sources I checked showed low of /77 or /78, so there is no room to talk with brokers. Well, after all, its +50 pips...

Rezo, when you talk about looking at different data sources to check prices, what sort of discrepancy are you lookin for?

I want to check my understanding of the mechanics of the spot fx market. As I understand it, the interbank market participants (ie banks) have access to true market prices/ spreads which can vary according to liquidity, a bit like level 2 for stocks?

The various fx brokers that offer the rest of us access to the fx market also have access to the interbank rates and base their quotes on this, but as I understand it, have to offer fixed spreads. They make their turn on the generally 1 to 2 pips they make on each transaction? However, the price you and I deal at is the brokers price, which could vary from the interbank market, particularly at times of low liquidity? Consequently, the price that each fx broker offers can vary between each other?

If prices can vary between brokers/ data sources, would you be able to hold your broker to a price offered by another broker if you found there was a discrepancy?

Is my understanding correct? If so, is there any regualtion within the fx market to ensure the correct prices are offered in line with the interbank market?
 
Darren,

I just use Globex futures so the price is factural and I collect the data from IB aswell.

When looking at the FX brokers there quotes are all different and are generally 20 pips different from the Futures. For example at the instant I just looked EUR/USD was:

FXCMs 1.2518/22
Globex future 1.2503/4

Notice the difference in spread and the prices. Guess which one I trade?

JonnyT
 
Hi JT.

I think the futures price will always differ from the spot price to take account of the interest rate differential.

I have heard the futures spread can also widen significantly during low liquidity. Is this the case?

If so, futures isn't for me at the mo as I hold positions for a few days at a time and I dont want the spread flying all over the place and taking out my stops overnight. To be honest, I am still using cmc sb. Their spread on eur/usd is now 3. Lower than FXCM!

PS. I hear your FX system is doing well. Is it based on the early morning breakout you were experimenting with a while ago (I appreciate you will probably not want to give too much detail)

Darren
 
GBP/USD Gaps currently 1.8250
===========
1.8357 - 1.8334, 23 points UP

1.8285 - 1.8264, 21 points UP
 
Hi Darren, JonnyT,

what sort of discrepancy are you lookin for?
well, if there was at least 3-5 pips (at least!), I could talk and argue with broker, but since I have seen lows of 77 and 78 on Refco charts, saxo charts and couple more - well, I have no case here.
the inter bank market participants (ie banks) have access to true market prices/ spreads which can vary according to liquidity
Yes, its usually 1-2 pips on inter bank or when trading with bank like UBS, and it can vary...but when there is a high volatility, broker platforms are not perfect as well...
The various fx brokers that offer the rest of us access to the fx market also have access to the inter bank rates and base their quotes on this, but as I understand it, have to offer fixed spreads
correct
They make their turn on the generally 1 to 2 pips they make on each transaction?
No, you see it depends. I am no insider in broker manipulations, but most (actually I think all) of the trades you execute are executed with the broker - that's what market maker means, and they have the balance on the look. So its not 1-2 pips, as they don't take prices to inter bank - its all 3/4 or 5 pips - all the difference is theirs.
When I mean balance - I mean they are looking at total shorts and longs on particular pair. Most of the time its more or less same balance - that's the nature of the market, but when there is a high volatility and "one way game" - those are the hard times for brokers. Dealers are sitting on the watch to find any orders they can and so on... Naturally, if they have imbalance in some currency - for example, they have too much longs accumulated on USDCAD - and by far not enough shorts to neutralize the longs - that's the time when they can turn to their bank and go to inter bank market by taking part of those longs out to real market...
You will just never hear broker saying that when you execute a trade, broker is the counter party - its no good for them, as all the "stop hunting" and "playing against you" questions pop up, and they are relevant... so brokers claim they have banks that they trade through...that is part of the truth.

However, the price you and I deal at is the brokers price, which could vary from the inter bank market, particularly at times of low liquidity? Consequently, the price that each fx broker offers can vary between each other?
If prices can vary between brokers/ data sources, would you be able to hold your broker to a price offered by another broker if you found there was a discrepancy?
Well, there is a limit to what self-respecting broker would do. If all the sources show low was 82 and your broker claims it was 78, you have a case, but as you see, I don't in this situation.
You see, even when you are on real inter bank - there is no "global" quote at any given time. That is the difference compared to other markets that have physical locations through which trades go. Here, we have several big electronic trading platforms that gather largest FX market participants like FXall, bloomberg, EBS and have a gathered orders and prices flow - but each and every of these platforms are apart, and can have different prices. Except for that there are also other inter bank transactions that form the FX market prices...and so there is no real "last" quote, as then you'd have to ask "last quote where?".
Same with brokers - not exact prices, but it makes a difference if its 1-2 pips, or more. If there is more - you can always request a true confirmation of transaction if you work with a REAL Bank and on real inter bank market, because the transaction should be showing somewhere. But with Brokers... :( you know how it works - you agree that they can quote you by any price they want (according to agreement each trader signs)... :(

I suggest you reading of this topic - it was a long time ago, but I searched for it and found it for you and others who are interested. Thread is called "How do Market Makers actually work?" : http://www.moneytec.com/forums/_showthread/_s-/_threadid-3494
Its in some way related with our issue, and even much more.

Is my understanding correct? If so, is there any regulation within the fx market to ensure the correct prices are offered in line with the inter bank market?

I think the answer is obvious now: no, there is no way to see what were the "EXACT" prices at any given second, but it shouldn't vary more that 2-3 pips tops from bank to bank (broker to broker). But I should add one "but" here :D : when there is an extreme volatility on the market - a huge selloff or rally, those 2-3 pips may turn to 20-30, and that is exactly what on real market happens, so...that's the way t works...

And 2 words on futures: Last time I looked on currency futures chards (year 2000), I remember there were lots of gaps - maybe it became more stable and liquid now, but for me - I prefer the streaming 24h FX market. I don't know - I am not saying which is better for sure, but spot is my preference.

Sorry for the long post guys,

Great trading,

Rezo
 
Thanks rezo, that has pretty much confirmed what I thought but I have also learnt a few things!

I do not know if you a familiar with the concept of spreadbetting. It is talked about v much on these boards but I think not generally available outside of UK/ Australia due to tax laws here.

Anyway, what struck me was that fx brokers are perhaps not that much different to sb companies in their pricing on fx markets. ie they have fixed spreads and base their own quotes on the interbank market, however their prices can vary from the market and each other? They are also managing their own position and will hedge elsewhere if the balance of longs v shorts gets skewed?

My own experience is with cmc spreadbet and in practice their fx prices track fxcm's and the like pretty accurately. However, their quotes can vary by a few points at times.

Anyone care to comment on these observations?
 
Have just read your link on moneytec rezo. I am now even more convinced that the fx brokers are no different to sb companies in this market.

Sure, there will be good and bad ones but I imagine stop running and the like goes on in all these places to some degree. At the end of the day though, there is only so far any one broker/ sb co can move their price away from the market before they start putting themselves at risk of arbitrage. I suspect in real life (and in line with my own observations), that the differential between diffrent brokers is only a few points max at any one time other than extreme volatility.
 
darren

Yesterday I ran D4F spread bet prices and CMS figures side by side to compare them.

Although they ran very close the one thing that stood out was how the D4F prices "jerked" about compared to CMS.

On average the D4F price moved 5 to 6 times while the CMS price remained static. On a few occassions it was as much as 8 times!

What this means to me is that it has got to be more relaxing trading on the CMS.

I have not got an account with them at present but am seriously considering it. Their spread on EURUSD is 3 pips, the same as D4F.

Could be worth paying the tax for a more relaxed life!

AGB
 
AGB, If you can monitor them side by side you could trade via D4F but take your trading cues (entries/exits) from CMS? Just a thought.
 
Hi eminem

At the moment I am using sierra charts but I find that they are not very reliable for forex.

Quite often if you log out during the day for some reason, when you go back in the price is current date but the charts will not update, it can take till the next day.

Thats one reason why I am looking into CMS. Their charts appear to be satisfactory for what I need and I may well ditch sierra.

I appreciate what you are saying about using CMS, the problem is keeping the the D4F trading platform open on the other screen to trade with is very distracting to say the least. I find I am drawn to the flashing red/green figures however hard I try to concentrate on the charts.

I think it is Chartman who some time ago said that people using his system to trade the Dow should concentrate on the charts not the sb figures as it would "freak" them out, know what he means!

The only way appears to be to minimise the trading platform till the charts say I need to act.

AGB
 
Yeah I think thats the best way, ignore D4F prices, they probably only flash them about to try and scare you into making an unnecessary trade, and make your trading decisions from the chart. Don't know whether you have tried intellicharts for your charting. They have a basic realtime web based system with some indicators and you can draw trendlines etc. Seem quite reliable although have only been using them for about a week. I'm looking more and more into FX due to the bigger ranges and smoother trends.
 
I agree about D4F prices jerking around (I'm comparing them to Oanda Demo). Funny thing is - the D4F price seems to 'lead' Oanda quite often. I mean if it's going down then D4F might drop 2 pips a second before Oanda.

I wondered if the D4F prices jerk around so they can 'justify' a requote if needs be and to scare you. It's disconcerting.....

Agree with Chartman about trading the chart and not the price but it's a lottery as to whether you get a better or worse price.
 
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