FTSE100 - November 2004

[barjon]

Kagi goes bearish mmm, still got that potential support level to break imo.

This thread's gone awfully quiet of late, there must be some of you still trading ftse or have you all deserted to forex.

good trading (even if it's on forex )

jon

 

[bracke]

Kagi goes bearish mmm, still got that potential support level to break imo.

This thread's gone awfully quiet of late, there must be some of you still trading ftse or have you all deserted to forex.

good trading (even if it's on forex )

jon

barjon

Support at 4761, if it is , for how long. I suspect that you have been eating too much beef.

Not been trading the ftse for some time or anything else, still working my way through the dbphoenix files. But the paper trading I have been doing as a result of what I am learning has been successful. I hope to start doing it for real early next year.

I will not be posting for a couple of weeks as I have to work away.

In the meantime I wish you good trading and remember its a serious business.

Regards

bracke

 

[peterpr]

Kagi goes bearish mmm, still got that potential support level to break imo.
jon

I still trade the ftse most days and managed to open a small short on Friday's down move at 4780. Kagi agreed at the second lower daily close so I MAY add to it if we get a bit of a bounce from the currently quoted 4745ish levels of the SB/CFD providers first thing Monday. Like you, I'm not convinced of any sustained down move yet but do expect it to test the 4730ish resistance turned support level at least before much more upside. As I said earlier though Kagi downside signals are a lot less successful in uptrends and vice-versa - so is the trend turning????

There's some persuasive Fib turn date stuff from the US that calls for a major top on both DOW and SPX on Wed/Thu last week. Friday's action says it could just be right. We'' see.

Bracke: Jon's chart seems to be labelling the line 4761 but that's just Friday's close

 

[gullible]

Peterpr,

So what is your view FTSE up or down? Heard a lot on the box (before Friday's down move) that FTSE heading towards 5000 by X-Mas. Aslo received publicity email from Update to the same effect - up towards 5000. Friday's downmove now makes me doubt the strenght of FTSE . Mind you I am no expert.

 

[peterpr]

Peterpr,
So what is your view FTSE up or down?

5000 ish is the most obvious target for real upside resistance and, taken in isolation, Friday does not detract greatly from the high momentum of the past 3 weeks upmove - yet. But, both the DOW & SPX have touched their obvious short-term upside targets. Since August ftse is already about 3-4% ahead of them so I'm very cautious about them getting further out of line. I think the ftse could still see 5000 over the next couple of weeks while the US goes sideways, but not before a serious test of the 4730ish support provided by the high of early October. It's small intra-day trades for me for the time being.

I don't expect a bull run through 2005 though

 

[tradesmart]

Good to see that the simple t/a calcs posted in September have proved to be accurate in predicting their target.

As peterpr says, the next objective is clearly 5000, and the range 5100 – 5400 which the index held between Oct 2001 and May 2002 could act as a magnet.

 

[peterpr]

Three of four trading days this week have straddled the October resistance turned support line at 4730ish and 3 of 4 have closed above it - today's quite convicingly. Both futures and the 1% reversal Kago chart say there's more upside to come. The little downchannel of the past week has been on declining volume and we're entering a seasonally positive period. So, everything in the garden is rosy and we can look forward to 5,000 before Xmas - can we?

I think we probably can - BUT

I also think that the strange behaviour of the US bond market over the past few weeks; the collapsing dollar and soaring precious metals; the US 'insider' sales/purchases ratios reported in the Wall St Journal each week; plus a few other oddities are saying we should enjoy the festive season while we can because 2005 may have something rather nasty in store.

 

[peterpr]

Another day spent flirting with that 4730ish support. 4 of 5 trading days crossing it; 4 of 5 closing above - maybe a little less convincingly today? Everything still nicely within that new little down-channel -volume still declining (US holiday infuence?). Futures say down and 4700 would still leave the up-channel from mid-August intact. Kagi still says up.

My best guess? Test 4700 before rallying into Xmas and 2005.

Anyone see something different?

 

[yourf16]

ftse is forming a rising wedge bearish pattern. it may be confirmed as early as the next week or so. once it breaks downward. sell sell sell !

 

[barjon]

youf16 - welcome. (Looks like you beary boys have got more company )

peter et al

As you say that October resistance area,bounded by high and close high, has held as support so far. Volume feeble Thursday and Friday - everyone holding their breath? - and a doji to finish with. Puts it on the cusp for a good break either way? Thursday's close gave a "buy" (just!!) on my swing chart and it's probably a good job I was in France on Friday doing some stocking up. Monday's action might take me in if Thursdays high is reached. Alternatively I could just start sampling the stock and drink myself silly

Good trading all.

jon

 

[alliance]

Alternatively I could just start sampling the stock and drink myself silly

ah! that 'll explain the "bar" part of ur nic then :cheesy:

 

[barjon]

ah! that 'll explain the "bar" part of ur nic then :cheesy:

all that course work hasn't dented your sense of humour then. How's it going?

 

[yourf16]

ftse100 pattern

ftse is forming a rising wedge bearish pattern. it may be confirmed as early as the next week or so. once it breaks downward. sell sell sell !

got that wrong... ftse dropped to 4700 just like that.
now back up to the 20day moving average. should follow
the great performance on wall st ?

 

[barjon]

yourf16

didn't your wedge break north first? ftse seems a bit suspicious of wall street atm despite dow futures.

jon

 

[yourf16]

yeah it did, but i was only looking at a chart of day close prices. not the intraday highs and lows. i haven't got any software so i made a start by copying a chart of a website into paint brush, and then drawing the lines on it. what program are most people using here for this work ?

 

[bracke]

This thread now closed - Go to FTSE100 - December 2004

Regards

bracke