Fokjock, Sorry for not replying earlier- been busy.
Theres no doubt the $ decline is well developed as the others have said. Too late to short dollar? who knows but in such a well developed trend, I am personally looking for opportunties to sell dollar against euro,usd and gbp.
I think we may have a further period of conolidation as the decline has been strong in recent weeks.
However, if you look back on monthly charts, beyond the 1.28 area for eur/usd, the next major resistance is not until 1.35. It's a similar story on usd/chf.
Have a look at gbp/usd monthly chart. You have to look back to 1992 to find a major resistance point and thats at $2!!. It's a clear run up.
Longer term, we may still have some way to go with the $ decline.
I will not personally be looking to buy $ until we signs of a longer term trend reversal, or possibly swings within a wide consolidation.
Its 11:45 am London time, Euro is at 1.2670, sterling at 1.8360, swissy at 1.2320, and I wont talk about JPY because Japanese interventions are just killing USDJPY pair as a trading instrument.
Ok, we see $US bulls showing little bit of strength finally, but its still way too early to talk about something more than corrective move.
It will take much more than this to start buying USD. For now, I still prefer standing aside, and if at all, take only little longs on GBPUSD. Maybe current levels will show the bottom, maybe not. For the Euro with little comments, see the chart.
Take care Everybody,
and Good Luck!
Rezo
Ok, we see $US bulls showing little bit of strength finally, but its still way too early to talk about something more than corrective move.
It will take much more than this to start buying USD. For now, I still prefer standing aside, and if at all, take only little longs on GBPUSD. Maybe current levels will show the bottom, maybe not. For the Euro with little comments, see the chart.
Take care Everybody,
and Good Luck!
Rezo
Attachments
£/$ was a nightmare today. Caught me off guard and had to close off a long at a loss. Had an excellent day yesterday which just about made todays nightmare reasonable.
From my last post -
Gaps on 10 min chart
---------------------------
1.8124 - 1.8133 9 points
1.8188 - 1.8197 11 points
1.8258 - 1.8263 5 points
1.8307 - 1.8311 4 points <-- we got to the top of this gap today
1.8336 - 1.8377 41 points
The Fibs I have from the move of Friday are :
GBP/USD
----------------------------------------
Limits for calculation : 1.8493 - 1.8106
Low to High turn - downtrend
Continuation levels Retrace levels
0.236 : 1.8584 0.236 : 1.8402
0.382 : 1.8641 0.382 : 1.8345
0.500 : 1.8686 0.500 : 1.8299 <-- almost here today
0.618 : 1.8732 0.618 : 1.8254
0.786 : 1.8797 0.786 : 1.8189
1.000 : 1.8880 1.000 : 1.8106
1.618 : 1.9119 1.618 : 1.7867
2.000 : 1.9267 2.000 : 1.7719
2.618 : 1.9506 2.618 : 1.7480
4.237 : 2.0133 4.237 : 1.6853
Most annoying today thing was shorting at 1.8403 for +13 as it approached another gap, doh !! Only left about 60 points on the table
Short term outlook is if 1.83 fails tomorrow then it will be a trip down to 1.8250 at least.
Kevin.
From my last post -
Gaps on 10 min chart
---------------------------
1.8124 - 1.8133 9 points
1.8188 - 1.8197 11 points
1.8258 - 1.8263 5 points
1.8307 - 1.8311 4 points <-- we got to the top of this gap today
1.8336 - 1.8377 41 points
The Fibs I have from the move of Friday are :
GBP/USD
----------------------------------------
Limits for calculation : 1.8493 - 1.8106
Low to High turn - downtrend
Continuation levels Retrace levels
0.236 : 1.8584 0.236 : 1.8402
0.382 : 1.8641 0.382 : 1.8345
0.500 : 1.8686 0.500 : 1.8299 <-- almost here today
0.618 : 1.8732 0.618 : 1.8254
0.786 : 1.8797 0.786 : 1.8189
1.000 : 1.8880 1.000 : 1.8106
1.618 : 1.9119 1.618 : 1.7867
2.000 : 1.9267 2.000 : 1.7719
2.618 : 1.9506 2.618 : 1.7480
4.237 : 2.0133 4.237 : 1.6853
Most annoying today thing was shorting at 1.8403 for +13 as it approached another gap, doh !! Only left about 60 points on the table
Short term outlook is if 1.83 fails tomorrow then it will be a trip down to 1.8250 at least.
Kevin.
Just checked the prices -
0.500 : 1.8686 0.500 : 1.8299 <-- almost here today
Its now been there and below ! Has touched at 1.8293. Should make it interesting, Fibs often bounce from a 50% level but given the weakness and BoJ trying hard to manipulate the market I would say the next level down will be touched tomorrow.
Kevin.
0.500 : 1.8686 0.500 : 1.8299 <-- almost here today
Its now been there and below ! Has touched at 1.8293. Should make it interesting, Fibs often bounce from a 50% level but given the weakness and BoJ trying hard to manipulate the market I would say the next level down will be touched tomorrow.
Kevin.
As expected 1.8250 was hit. Has been as low as 1.8244.
Next gap down is 1.8188 - 1.8197 11 points, which is also a Fib level 0.786 = 1.8189.
At the moment it looks like it will be hit at some point soon. There appears to be nothing stopping the slide, forthcoming G7 meeting obviously spooking a lot of people.
Kevin.
Next gap down is 1.8188 - 1.8197 11 points, which is also a Fib level 0.786 = 1.8189.
At the moment it looks like it will be hit at some point soon. There appears to be nothing stopping the slide, forthcoming G7 meeting obviously spooking a lot of people.
Kevin.
darktone
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morning rezo
Cracks appear to be a little larger in E/$ over last few days.
Agree its probably a little to early to call shorts at this time but some pretty big support has just been breached at 1.2625-45 and $ grinding the bottom of its channel. Hard to believe that E/$ will just rollover and die though. Finding it hard to get a handle on it at the moment to be honest and its cost me this week.
Cracks appear to be a little larger in E/$ over last few days.
Agree its probably a little to early to call shorts at this time but some pretty big support has just been breached at 1.2625-45 and $ grinding the bottom of its channel. Hard to believe that E/$ will just rollover and die though. Finding it hard to get a handle on it at the moment to be honest and its cost me this week.
morning dt,
well, I am out of trading for today on majors - but looking to maybe reenter short eurgbp...will see. I agree, euro may show further weakness in the near term, but for me it is still very early to start buying $. eurgbp is the one I choose for now if at all. Majort are on corrective now, and I dont trade corrections, although if it goes on, which IMHO is whats going to happen, we may see 1.24 next week. But this is a very poor possibility, which I dnt even consider as a trade for now. Maybe next week I may try little shorts, but for now I am sidelined on majors.
Good Trading,
well, I am out of trading for today on majors - but looking to maybe reenter short eurgbp...will see. I agree, euro may show further weakness in the near term, but for me it is still very early to start buying $. eurgbp is the one I choose for now if at all. Majort are on corrective now, and I dont trade corrections, although if it goes on, which IMHO is whats going to happen, we may see 1.24 next week. But this is a very poor possibility, which I dnt even consider as a trade for now. Maybe next week I may try little shorts, but for now I am sidelined on majors.
Good Trading,
thanks dt,
well, this is a short term trade for 50 pips, as I still belive we may see further correction coming up. We see the bounce near levels which are to support another attempt of bears to break the trend line. Is market willing? we dont know, but we'll see it soon
well, this is a short term trade for 50 pips, as I still belive we may see further correction coming up. We see the bounce near levels which are to support another attempt of bears to break the trend line. Is market willing? we dont know, but we'll see it soon
darktone - yep, yesterday will have inflicted pain on many people positioning for a ride up on € and £. I set my stops too wide and undid most of the good work from Monday & Tuesday.
Cant see any great recovery for a few days at least. Wil be scalping when the opps appear but not planning on holding long or short for any length of time.
Cant see any great recovery for a few days at least. Wil be scalping when the opps appear but not planning on holding long or short for any length of time.
got stopped. as my entry was '68 (I posted 65, because that was the rate the monute I was posting). for those who entered at 65 or lower, stop shouldnt have been hit, but 38 was the low after I entered, and it was hit (30 pips stop loss). I am not considering to reenter at the moment.
Good Luck!
I am not considering to reenter at the moment.Good Luck!
darktone
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unlucky rezo
I was long last night when support was holding and i sold the break this morning. thats why i didnt have the stomach to trade it either way.
The market just seems to be churning at the moment and ive not really got a stratergy to play it. so best for me to sit it out even though i feel tempted by the (got to get it back) syndrome. Im experienced to know that always ends in tears...
I was long last night when support was holding and i sold the break this morning. thats why i didnt have the stomach to trade it either way.
The market just seems to be churning at the moment and ive not really got a stratergy to play it. so best for me to sit it out even though i feel tempted by the (got to get it back) syndrome. Im experienced to know that always ends in tears...
