isa's short term trading journal

[SlipperyC]

Oh, great trade on Fres, isatrader! :clap:

 

[SlipperyC]

Wow, that happened fast!

Am in short on the DAX from 7140, £5/pt, stop at 7190. Target around 6900 initially.

Lets see if it pans out.

 

[isatrader]

Oh, great trade on Fres, isatrader! :clap:

Thanks, good luck with the DAX short.

 

[SlipperyC]

Might need it, it looks lively this morning - should have trusted my instincts and kept that weekly trade open!!!

 

[SlipperyC]

Getting a touch close to my stop on the DAX! If it breaks up from here it should be huge!

 

[isatrader]

I'm getting more bearish personally. But my long BG Group trade is performing well and in profit now. But I'm in two minds whether to tighten my stop with the current volatility. Don't think I'm going to do anything today though.

 

[isatrader]

Autonomy Corporation (AU.) looks like a good momentum play. It had strong results today and has made a piercing line pattern on the chart today. It looks too big for my account though at the moment. Will add it to my watchlist.

 

[SlipperyC]

DAX short hanging by the tiniest margin - came within 1.5 pts of being stopped out!

Tick,tick,tick.

 

[isatrader]

Market Breadth Charts

It's been a while since I looked at the market breadth charts and thought with the key levels on the indicies being broken today that it would be good to have another look under the surface and and see how strong the foundations of this market are.

So attached is the the following Market Breadth Charts from stockcharts.com free charts section:

$CPC (CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio)
$NYAD (NYSE Advance Decline Issues (EOC)) – I’ve put the S&P 500 behind to compare.
$NYSI (NYSE McClellan Chart)
$NYHL (NYSE New Highs-New Lows (EOD))
$BPNYA (NYSE Bullish Percent Index)
$NYA200R (NYSE Percent of stocks above the 200 day moving average)

Also I’ve included the following relative performance charts

$NYA:$USD (NYSE/US Dollar)
$NYA:$SPX (NYSE/S&P 500)
$INDU ($TRAN behind price – Dow Theory)
SPY:TLT (S&P 500 SPDRs/iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund – This is a measure of the risk on, risk off trade.)

 

[isatrader]

Spot Gold 5 Year Chart

The spot gold chart also is at an important level. See the attached chart.

 

[isatrader]

Watchlist Addition

Talvivaara Mining (TALV) - Nickel and Zinc miner. Made a weekly breakout a few months back and consolidated during January. Divergence in the force index with the price action, so I will look for a possible entry tomorrow in this if the price action looks positive.

 

[SlipperyC]

Thanks for the charts isatrader. In my opinion they show divergences between current price action and what it 'should' be.

Took a bath on my DAX short (-50 pts, £250!). Hindsight: Should have WAITED for the H&S pattern to confirm first! Didn't expect the price action to be so robust through the 7140-50 area. A clue lay in the Aussie dollar which was consolidating around parity most of the time, waiting to pop-up.

DAX has broken to multiweek/month highs now and could have a clear run to 7300-7500. UNLESS its a fake breakout!

Note to self; As always, trade what you see not what you think and BE PATIENT.

 

[isatrader]

Thanks for the charts isatrader. In my opinion they show divergences between current price action and what it 'should' be.

Took a bath on my DAX short (-50 pts, £250!). Hindsight: Should have WAITED for the H&S pattern to confirm first! Didn't expect the price action to be so robust through the 7140-50 area. A clue lay in the Aussie dollar which was consolidating around parity most of the time, waiting to pop-up.

DAX has broken to multiweek/month highs now and could have a clear run to 7300-7500. UNLESS its a fake breakout!

Note to self; As always, trade what you see not what you think and BE PATIENT.

Sorry your short didn't work out. I always find it hard going short personally. It's great when your timing is right as the moves are fast and violent but I'm normally too early. One thing I noticed with your short was that the DAX had gaped higher on the open and was back filling the gap. I'm not sure if you could see it on your chart as I presume your chart has the overnight action as well? You should post a marked up chart of where you entered and exited as it will be interesting? Here's the chart from yahoo which shows the days action only, do you see the gap yesterday? It looks like it could be doing the same today?

 

[SlipperyC]

Yes, I saw the gap. I filter out overnight action for that reason. I was actually long from 7115 but had a target of 7145 and the short waiting at 7140.

I'll see if I can post a chart for the next one.

 

[isatrader]

Yes, I saw the gap. I filter out overnight action for that reason. I was actually long from 7115 but had a target of 7145 and the short waiting at 7140.

I'll see if I can post a chart for the next one.

That would be good, thanks.

I was thinking some more about Average True Range last night after reading a Van Tharp article, so I had a look at the indicies ranges each day, and each week. So in the case of the DAX the 52 week average true range is 228.47 points and the 200 day average true range is 101.20 points. So I'm going to try and see if there's a way to apply this in my trading as think for example if the price has already moved 100 points in a day then the probability of a reversal should be higher if that's it's normal range?

 

[SlipperyC]

Interesting theory. I've tried - over the years - to apply lots of different strategies to trading the DAX.

Ultimately, nothing worked except awareness of its unique patterns through experience and the realisation that its a spiky bugger - both long and short - and will try its hardest to throw traders off!

Anyway, I think its showing weakness today, so I'm short from now (10.18am).

Short DAX, £3/pt, 7191. Stop 7210. Target, 7130.

 

[SlipperyC]

Also, short the AUSSIE (AUD/USD) from 10139, £2/pt, stop 10160. Target 9980.

Perhaps forming a double top from yesterdays high.

 

[isatrader]

I'm still holding off doing anything. The BG Group trade is in profit still, but pulling back a bit. I want to wait until I can move my stop to break even before adding a new position to my account.

 

[SlipperyC]

Stops to b/e on DAX and Aussie shorts.

 

[SlipperyC]

Closed the DAX short at 7178 for +13. Still has support at 7170 area. Expect it will have another go at 7200 today.