Is this the BOTTOM of the equity markets???

[DaxDestroyer]

*lach* Mir war es dieses Jahr nicht wichtig genug. Ausserdem haette mein Sohn im Stadion geweint, waere naemlich das WE vom Bremen Spiel gewesen *aua*

But next year, we might go

Anyway

Have you read yesterday the article in the FT about Dt. Bank and Barclays? That they use 50-60x leverage? I hope, this is wrong information, otherwise I'm really scared

 

[BSD]

Ah

sie haben regionale akzente in Deutschland, ja. Wunderbar!

Sagen wir mal so:

Manche haben einen, hehe.

*lach* Mir war es dieses Jahr nicht wichtig genug. Ausserdem haette mein Sohn im Stadion geweint, waere naemlich das WE vom Bremen Spiel gewesen *aua*

Ja, das geht ja dann ganz und gar nicht

Have you read yesterday the article in the FT about Dt. Bank and Barclays? That they use 50-60x leverage? I hope, this is wrong information, otherwise I'm really scared

Hadn't read that, that is pretty scary !!!

 

[DaxDestroyer]

Here a part of the FT article :

The crucial problem on this side of the Atlantic is that the largest European banks have become not only too big to fail, but also too big to be saved. For example, the total liabilities of Deutsche Bank (leverage ratio over 50!) amount to about €2,000bn (more than Fannie Mae) or more than 80 per cent of the gross domestic product of Germany. This is simply too much for the Bundesbank or even the German state, given that the German budget is bound by the rules of the European Union’s stability pact and the German government cannot order (unlike the US Treasury) its central bank to issue more currency. Similarly, the total liabilities of Barclays of around £1,300bn (leverage ratio 60!) are roughly equivalent to the GDP of the UK. Fortis bank has a leverage ratio of “only” 33, but its liabilities are three times the GDP of its home country of Belgium.

If that is true, it might be time to make preps for a LONG AND COLD WINTER

 

[BSD]

Hmm.

Do you remember that funny bit in PitBull, where Marty Schwartz thinks all hell is going to break lose after the 1987 crash where the Dow lost 22% in one day, and he's scared that Washington is going to declare an emergency bank holiday to prevent a run, so he races to his bank and gets hundreds of thousands of US dollars worth of Krugerrands out, and almost breaks his back lobbing them back home, scared witless simultaneously of being mugged and robbed.

He is a very good writer as well, so his stories are really filled with wit, humour and life.

Anyway, was pretty funny when I read that, not quite so funny any more when you see whats going on at the moment.

 

[shliq]

lets see how deep the rabbit hole goes

 

[DaxDestroyer]

1987 I was sitting at home and could not believe it. The next day, I walked into the bank and withdrew 30k DM. A LOT of money that time for me. I picked up my Mom and spent all of it on new furniture for my apartment I thought, that it could end there, so I tried to make it a "nice end".

Problem today is, that leverage is so much higher. I'm optimistic, even bullish, BUT NOT BLIND.

 

[stevexyg]

Last time this sort of thing happened, ie 1930's, the German economy became so dysfunctional (esp after years of paying repatriations to countries that suffered in WW1) that the Nazi Party gained popular support and eventual political power.

 

[DaxDestroyer]

Last time this sort of thing happened, ie 1930's, the German economy became so dysfunctional (esp after years of paying repatriations to countries that suffered in WW1) that the Nazi Party gained popular support and eventual political power.

Good, that you still remember it Respect

 

[DaxDestroyer]

After seeing the negative votes coming in after the fall yesterday

Where please are the positive votes after today's snap back???

 

[BSD]

Last time this sort of thing happened, ie 1930's, the German economy became so dysfunctional (esp after years of paying repatriations to countries that suffered in WW1) that the Nazi Party gained popular support and eventual political power.

Ahh.

Now the fundamentals here are apparently all quite sound and robust for the time - unemployment for example has fallen yet again per the latest figures as just one of numerous indicators -, so need for any panic, let alone seeing a Fourth Reich on the horizon.



Finanzkrise: Der Bankencrash - eine Chance für Deutschland - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft

Only in German, but all quite reassuring.

 

[JTrader]

How can it be the bottom of the equities market. The dow is around 10000, the ftse around 5000? the bottom has got to be much closer to 0. Whether this takes a month, year, decade or century.....i dont think this is the bottom of the current downturn/dip fwiw.

 

[DaxDestroyer]

Ahh.

Now the fundamentals here are apparently all quite sound and robust for the time - unemployment for example has fallen yet again per the latest figures as just one of numerous indicators -, so need for any panic, let alone seeing a Fourth Reich on the horizon.



Finanzkrise: Der Bankencrash - eine Chance für Deutschland - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft

Only in German, but all quite reassuring.

Yes, Sir

 

[DaxDestroyer]

How can it be the bottom of the equities market. The dow is around 10000, the ftse around 5000? the bottom has got to be much closer to 0. Whether this takes a month, year, decade or century.....i dont think this is the bottom of the current downturn/dip fwiw.

Time will tell Your reasoning has IMHO too much buit-in logic

 

[stevexyg]

Good, that you still remember it Respect

not personally actually!

re: bottom of the market, wouldn't it be where stock prices reflect actual value of company instead of actual value, plus future returns? I thought that was what the stock market was all about? Selling shares of future, as yet unrealized, earnings? So when High Street Store's share price X total number of shares reflects the value of it's property portfolio, bank balance and current unsold stock then it will have hit bottom. However with property value declining, and trade at the tills insufficient to cover outgoings the bottom gets further and further down each day.

 

[JTrader]

Is this the bottom of the markets

I answered, "I don't know/care."

My methods stand up long & short, volatile or not volatile, etc. I do not pay attention to fundamentals (though dont trade through news releases), so i couldn't care less really.
I barely pay much attention to the price levels that i am trading (just make sure the chart & fill price match. Although i do look at the psychological 00 & 50 potential minor S/R levels), most of my attention is on chart pattern recognition and S/R.

Mind you, i trade FX and prefer the 24 hour nature. I do not like the fact that indices have an open and close and big opening gaps that you need to second guess etc.

 

[DaxDestroyer]

not personally actually!

re: bottom of the market, wouldn't it be where stock prices reflect actual value of company instead of actual value, plus future returns? I thought that was what the stock market was all about? Selling shares of future, as yet unrealized, earnings? So when High Street Store's share price X total number of shares reflects the value of it's property portfolio, bank balance and current unsold stock then it will have hit bottom. However with property value declining, and trade at the tills insufficient to cover outgoings the bottom gets further and further down each day.

I wish, it were that easy

 

[DaxDestroyer]

I answered, "I don't know/care."

My methods stand up long & short, volatile or not volatile, etc. I do not pay attention to fundamentals (though dont trade through news releases), so i couldn't care less really.
I barely pay much attention to the price levels that i am trading (just make sure the chart & fill price match. Although i do look at the psychological 00 & 50 potential minor S/R levels), most of my attention is on chart pattern recognition and S/R.

Mind you, i trade FX and prefer the 24 hour nature. I do not like the fact that indices have an open and close and big opening gaps that you need to second guess etc.

Good for you
As I trade mainly FDAX, there are volatility levels, where it is not tradeable for me anymore. In a normal environment I could not care about fundamentals as well. My trades are purely technical. BUT!!! at this juncture, I care about the events. Not for my trading "today", but whether there will be tradeable markets "tomorrow".

IMHO we are ON THE EDGE.

 

[DaxDestroyer]

hmmm Still more bearish votes. Market really should move higher

 

[BSD]

Aha, a contrarian.



Re volatility in the Dax, you're right of course Carlos, but couldn't you just trade smaller to take that into account ?

 

[DaxDestroyer]

I do. Smaller, yes. But usually I trade continuation patterns. Problem: If a 1 minute Bar swings over 30 points, the stops are getting too big. So there is a point, I just look and save energy and money.

Today was/is a good day for me. First the "stupid" gap open then a first move up, then the continuation. Everything without a lot of hurt. Smooth moves. My market.

If it starts gyrating, I step to the sidelines as risk/reward is too tilted against me.

Have a good day, Markus!