Is Delusion Common Amongst Traders?

[oildaytrader]

Do you know any delusional traders who believe that they're profitable when they're not? I'm just asking as I know lots of sports betters who think that they're winning, but I don't know any who say they're losers. I also know one trader who is profitable before costs, losing after costs. So he considers himself profitable.

I was delusional about being profitable , until I made about 50 profitable automated systems ..May you all sweat your goolies till you find your holy grails.

Ever seen gamblers in a casino, eyes glued on the roulette tables,hooked and going through misery of losses after losses.Poor deluded punters.


O D T

 

[groovemachine]

Let's see you publish your trade history to mt4stats.com ODT. One day of profitability is not the same as having 50 winning EAs in your back pocket. When I saw this thread title I immediately thought of you.

 

[oildaytrader]

Let's see you publish your trade history to mt4stats.com ODT. One day of profitability is not the same as having 50 winning EAs in your back pocket. When I saw this thread title I immediately thought of you.

Why bother publishing them ?Might as well spend the energy on trading and making money.
Thats why in future you, will see less of me posting during the week ,unless the markets are dead and in random zone.

 

[shadowninja]

Might as well spend the energy on trading and making money.

Not wanting to get involved in an argument but didn't you just say you had 50 automated profitable systems? So I should imagine you're sitting about on your **** in your jimjams at 3pm looking for something useful to do on a Wednesday afternoon, surely?

Actually, if I had just one automated profitable system, I wouldn't bother getting out of bed until it was time to meet friends for a pint.

 

[DionysusToast]

Actually, if I had just one automated profitable system, I wouldn't bother getting out of bed until it was time to meet friends for a pint.

I can beat that....

If I had one automated profitable system - I'd have bed sores...

 

[oildaytrader]

Not wanting to get involved in an argument but didn't you just say you had 50 automated profitable systems? So I should imagine you're sitting about on your **** in your jimjams at 3pm looking for something useful to do on a Wednesday afternoon, surely?

Actually, if I had just one automated profitable system, I wouldn't bother getting out of bed until it was time to meet friends for a pint.

People develop habits and desires that never go away.Sportsmen develop the passion to break the next world record or win every football game.It is the desire to develop better systems , improve existing systems that are already profitable.Look for a greater edge drives me to keep improving.

 

[gmarx]

Yes dillusion is common , Ive been diludded to the fact that Ive thought i had a good deal where I was trading lol

 

[shadowninja]

I can beat that....

If I had one automated profitable system - I'd have bed sores...

 

[shadowninja]

People develop habits and desires that never go away.Sportsmen develop the passion to break the next world record or win every football game.It is the desire to develop better systems , improve existing systems that are already profitable.Look for a greater edge drives me to keep improving.

Fair enough. (I know what you mean, tbh. I think I'd do the same if I had such an automated system.)

 

[oildaytrader]

I can beat that....

If I had one automated profitable system - I'd have bed sores...

Aye,hindsight, most important parts would end up being sore.

 

[oildaytrader]

MACD!
Everyone knows its CCI that shows up insider trading. Tut! Amateurs!

I was just begining to believe in the forty indicators on the platform , and the idiots who make 1,000 free indicators for metatrader.They are also so disillusioned that common sense doesn't exist.

Let us take a look at CC1 14 period.The assumption behind the indicator is that commodities (or stocks or bonds) move in cycles, with highs and lows coming at periodic intervals.How can such a formula work consistently?It can't .

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku....hnical_indicators:commodity_channel_index_cci

MACD a lagging indicator is like a driver being told after the turn, the lagging signal is to turn light or left.Tottaly disillusioned after reading this.

O D T

 

[oildaytrader]

Same set ups produce different results , one can be a loss the other a profit , deluded traders believe they always see the profitable ones and market conditions in the future may give them more profitable ones.


Live in hope of a better future, and denying today's losses.

 

[trendie]

ODT makes a good point here.
when we decide on a strategy, and eyeball it, we tend to see the winning entry, because we have the advantage of knowing what happened later.

when we see the market rising historically, we subconsciously only look for winning long entries, even though there may have been whippy short false entries.
conversely, knowing the market is falling, we selectively only see the perfect short entries, not the false longs.
thus deluding ourselves into seeing a winning strat.

in real-life, we dont know the actual outcome, as history is forming every tick.

one advantage of a computer-driven back-test is to remove the selectivity we are prone to.
in that respect, ODTs observations regarding automated-systems are valid.

 

[Splitlink]

Absolutely. I am a TA user but TE has a point there, at least. Looking at a chart to determine direction opens a whole can of worms, Even if we do not use indicators when making decisions, we are subconsciously eyeballing the whole chart and absorbing what has happened in the past. This must. in most cases, influence our future decision making which, in most cases, is incorrect.

The assumptions that we make in deciding that the market will turn just because we are in a "zone" result in the downfall of most of us.

My own current tactic, which brings in good results as far as keeping losses small is concerned but, I admit, often gets me out of winning positions far too early, is based on keeping rather tighter stops than most, I believe. Nevertheless, my entry decisions are often contrary to general opinion.

That is why I do not post what I do very often. I fear the successful results might give a wrong impression when, really, I cannot justify what I do.

I've been called "random" but there is nothing wrong with that. The problem is justifying what I do on here to those with orderly minds.

 

[oildaytrader]

Traders have to be very selective in separating random cycles and trends .

I was gonna give the secrets of profitable manual trading , heck I want all the scam artists to remain in business to stitch noobs with non predictive lagging indicators,coaching from failed traders,E A sellers and the systems .

 

[Splitlink]

My tip for account health is easy. Watch the risk factor. If you are not sure where the stop should be, or if you think it is too far away, put a number of points on it. I do not, now (I used to) refuse a trade because I do not like the, so-called, logical stop distance. That means, for me, that it should move in the desired direction fairly quickly.

"Quickly" is elastic. That depends on whether you are a scalper, session trader or longer term.

 

[arabianights]

Yup.

Also know plenty of delusional profitable traders that are ultimately trading a -EV strategy...

 

[oildaytrader]

My tip for account health is easy. Watch the risk factor. If you are not sure where the stop should be, or if you think it is too far away, put a number of points on it. I do not, now (I used to) refuse a trade because I do not like the, so-called, logical stop distance. That means, for me, that it should move in the desired direction fairly quickly.

"Quickly" is elastic. That depends on whether you are a scalper, session trader or longer term.

Move to triple screen method using only candles on daily , 4 h , 1h and 15m for nice a nice solid method on trading currencies.No mas just triple screen candles no indicators.

Long on bullish engulfing and short on bearish engulfing for profitable trading.Stop 50.

 

[Splitlink]

Move to triple screen method using only candles on daily , 4 h , 1h and 15m for nice a nice solid method on trading currencies.No mas just triple screen candles no indicators.

Long on bullish engulfing and short on bearish engulfing for profitable trading.Stop 50.

Ok, I'll look at it this afternoon. Thanks for that.

 

[meanreversion]

I'm starting to get results from backtesting which show that exits may in fact be more important than entries. Is this possible? Maybe delusion comes from focusing on the wrong thing, i.e. the entry. Maybe I'm delusional, but I've started testing with parameters I've never considered before as they haven't seemed "logical" ... and the lack of alignment between what seems logical and what actually makes money may cause disruption in the space-time continuum = delusion.