Intuitive / Analytical Practical Application

[ducati998]

Could any one as a favour post a chart of CALLON PETROLEUM
Ticker CPE.....I do not know how to get a chart up on these boards.

Just the chart, no indicators, except P&V for the moment.
And if you feel adventurous, your analysis, utilising anything you wish, EMA's, TICK, P&S, RSI, etc.

I shall provide a fundamental analysis to contrast with the technical, assuming we get one.
It will be interesting to view the alternate methods, logic, management, and techniques in almost real time.

cheers d998

ps. Can that be a 1 year chart, on a daily basis, and intra-day as an additional if possible covering say 7 days.

 

[roguetrader]

There ya go will look at it a little later and see if I can see anything of significance in it, but to be truthfull I only trade intra-day so I'm not good at that, there are many here who are much better.

 

[ducati998]

Rogue,
Thanks, hopefully a technical trader will feel the urge to post an analysis.....cheers d998

 

[ducati998]

Right, I'll start by simply posting up some of the basic quantitative data, prior to any analysis. This stock was chosen not at random, but because, 1.....it represents a sector that is topical, viz. Energy, and 2......all is not what it would seem with this stock.

Sales 119.80 Mil
Income 21.50 Mil
Net Profit Margin 17.90%
Return on Equity 10.80%
Debt/Equity Ratio 0.97
Revenue/Share 6.76
Earnings/Share 1.22
Book Value/Share 11.19
Dividend Rate 0.00
Payout Ratio 0.00%

Current P/E Ratio 12.5 15.0 20.1
P/E Ratio 5-Year High NA 21.9 64.8
P/E Ratio 5-Year Low NA 6.2 16.9
Price/Sales Ratio 2.25 1.97 1.54
Price/Book Value 1.36 2.59 2.89
Price/Cash Flow Ratio 3.80 7.40 12.70

Gross Margin 83.6 49.2 47.3
Pre-Tax Margin 12.4 20.9 11.5
Net Profit Margin 17.9 13.4 7.7
5Yr Gross Margin (5-Year Avg.) 86.2 43.0 47.4
5Yr PreTax Margin (5-Year Avg.) 6.4 17.1 9.4
5Yr Net Profit Margin (5-Year Avg.) 4.2 10.2 5.8

Debt/Equity Ratio 0.97 0.51 1.20
Current Ratio 0.7 1.1 1.5
Quick Ratio 0.4 0.8 1.0
Interest Coverage 1.7 10.0 3.5
Leverage Ratio 2.3 2.3 6.0
Book Value/Share 11.19 13.29 12.52

Return On Equity 10.8 17.7 14.6
Return On Assets 4.7 7.6 2.5
Return On Capital 5.5 11.6 6.6
Return On Equity (5-Year Avg.) 2.1 16.1 12.0
Return On Assets (5-Year Avg.) 0.8 6.3 2.0
Return On Capital (5-Year Avg.) 0.9 9.8 5.6

Income/Employee 247,000 55,000 26,000
Revenue/Employee 1 Mil 410,000 336,000
Receivable Turnover 9.6 7.8 7.4
Inventory Turnover NA 10.0 8.4
Asset Turnover 0.3 0.6 0.3


Income Statement - Sales.... EBIT.... Depreciation... Total Net Income... EPS...... Tax Rate (%)
12/04........................... 119.8...... 34.9........... 50.1................... 21.5 ...................1.22 ............NA
12/03............................ 73.7........ 20.9 ..........35.8.................. -18.2.................. -1.42 ............NA
12/02 ............................67.1........ 23.6.......... 30.9.................. -1.7..................... -0.22............ NA
12/01............................ 61.8 ........15.6 ..........19.4................... 1.8 ......................0.04............ 35.70
12/00............................ 58.1........ 27.4.......... 17.6................... 12.5 ....................0.80 ............34.20
12/99............................ 37.1........ 10.2.......... 15.2................... 2.6 ......................0.01............ 35.00
12/98............................ 35.6....... -44.0.......... 20.4................. -30.8.................. -4.17............. NA
12/97............................ 42.1........ 14.6.......... 17.4................... 8.4...................... 0.88............ 33.30
12/96............................ 25.8 ........5.7 ............10.2 ...................5.5 ......................0.45 .............1.90
12/95 ............................23.2........ 2.7 ............10.7 ...................1.1 ......................0.14............. 0.00



..................Book Value/ Share Debt/ Equity Return on Equity (%) Return on Assets (%) Interest Coverage
12/04.......... ...$11.26.......... 0.97 ...........................10.8 ..................................4.7..........................1.7
12/03.............. $9.57........... 1.61........................... NA.................................... -3.7........................ 0.7
12/02............ $10.14.......... 1.76........................... NA..................................... -0.4........................ 0.9
12/01............ $10.99 ..........1.10........................... 1.2...................................... 0.5........................ 1.2
12/00............ $10.23.......... 0.98........................... 9.2...................................... 4.1......................... 3.3
12/99 ............$10.25.......... 0.81.......................... 2.1....................................... NA .........................1.6
12/98............ $10.33.......... 0.93.......................... NA..................................... -17.0........................ NA
12/97............ $14.47.......... 0.53.......................... 7.4...................................... 4.4.......................... 7.3
12/96............ $12.32.......... 0.32.......................... 7.1...................................... 4.6 ..........................19.7
12/95............ $13.05.......... 0.00.......................... 1.5...................................... 1.3.......................... 1.6



Balance Sheet - 10 Year Summary (in Millions) Current Assets Current Liabilities Long Term Debt Shares Outstanding
12/04.............................................................................. 28.1 ....................41.1..............192.4.... 17.6 Mil
12/03.............................................................................. 85.8 ....................120.6........ 214.9....... 13.9 Mil
12/02 ..............................................................................17.3 .....................16.6 .........248.3 ........13.9 Mil
12/01............................................................................. 13.0 ......................59.5 .........161.7........ 13.4 Mil
12/00............................................................................. 22.5...................... 21.4......... 134.0........ 13.3 Mil
12/99............................................................................. 41.0...................... 20.5 .........100.3........ 12.1 Mil
12/98 .............................................................................14.2...................... 13.1 ..........78.3 .........8.2 Mil
12/97 .............................................................................28.5...................... 15.8 ..........60.3 .........7.9 Mil
12/96............................................................................. 20.8 ......................16.0.......... 24.7......... 6.3 Mil
12/95............................................................................. 12.8....................... 8.1............ 0.1........... 5.8 Mil

a) Restricted cash was used to pay off 2004 Senior Subordinated Notes
on January 8, 2004 which are included in long-term debt including
current maturities above.


Production and Price Information: Three Months Twelve Months
--------------------------------- Ended Ended
December 31, December 31,
--------------- ---------------
......... 2004 2003 2004 2003
------- ------- ------- -------
Production:
Oil (MBbls) 381 128 1,736 268
Gas (MMcf) 2,462 2,950 11,387 12,315
Total Production (MMcfe) 4,751 3,718 21,801 13,923
Average daily (MMcfe) 51.6 40.4 59.6 38.1

Average prices:
Oil ($/Bbl) $25.44 $29.28 $28.71 $28.72
Gas ($/Mcf) $6.27 $5.15 $6.15 $5.36
Gas equivalent ($/Mcfe) $5.29 $5.09 $5.50 $5.29

Operating revenues:
Oil and gas sales $25,139 $18,938 $119,802 $73,697
--------- --------- --------- ---------

Operating expenses:
Lease operating expenses 5,246 3,298 22,308 11,301
Depreciation, depletion and
amortization ..............10,995 7,484 47,453 28,253
General and administrative 1,919 1,009 8,758 4,713
Accretion expense .........845 670 3,400 2,884
Loss on mark-to-market
commodity derivative
contracts .................(237) 200 1,371 535

Year-End 2004 Proved Reserves. The company also announced that it ended 2004 with proved reserves of 72.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas and 19.7 million barrels of oil, or 191 billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent (Bcfe).

At December 31, 2004, the company's independent petroleum engineers estimated the present value of these reserves, excluding income taxes, using Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) pricing guidelines for year-end 2004 and discounted at 10%, to be $613 million. Using the SEC guidelines, realized prices averaged $6.51 per thousand cubic feet of natural gas and $36.72 per barrel of oil.

NATCHEZ, Miss.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 15, 2005--Callon Petroleum Company (NYSE:CPE - News; NYSE:CPE.PrA - News) announced today that its Board of Directors authorized quarterly dividends to be paid April 15, 2005 to shareholders of record on March 31, 2005 of its $2.125 Preferred Stock, Series A.
The dividend will be $0.53125 per share.






Financial data in U.S. dollars

Media General Industry: Independent Oil & Gas

As I said this was not a random choice, and I will post why this is not as clear cut as it looks.
Cheers d998

 

[ducati998]

PERIOD ENDING.......... 31-Dec-04............ 30-Sep-04............ 30-Jun-04.................... 31-Mar-04
Total Revenue .................25,139 ..................25,138 ..................37,606 ........................31,919
Cost of Revenue ..............5,246 ....................5,771 ..................... 6,123 ..........................5,168

Gross Profit ......................19,893 ..................19,367 ...................31,483 ........................26,751

Operating Expenses
Research Development - - - -
Selling General
and Administrative ......(2,244)....................... 5,672 .....................1,537 ...........................3,793
Non Recurring - ...........(89) .............................13 ............................ 76
Others ............................15,766 ..................... 8,417 ...................15,390 .........................12,651

Total Operating Expenses - - - -


Operating Income
or Loss ..........................6,371 ........................ 5,367 ....................14,543 .........................10,231

Income from Continuing Operations
Total Other Income/Expenses Net
............................................ 46 ........................(1,078) ..........................771 ............................ (2,386)
Earnings Before
Interest And Taxes....... 6,417 .....................4,289 .......................15,314 ............................7,845
Interest Expense ..........4,299 .....................4,511 ..........................5,436 ............................ 5,891
Income Before Tax....... 2,118 ..................... (222)............................. 9,878 ............................1,954
Income Tax Expense.. (6,697) - - -
Minority Interest - - - -

Net Income From
Continuing Ops .........8,815 .......................(222) ..............................9,878 .............................1,954

Non-recurring Events
Discontinued Operations - - - -
Extraordinary Items 308.............................. 768 ..............................(148) .................................148
Effect Of Accounting Changes - - - -
Other Items - - - -


Net Income ............9,123 ...............................546 ...............................9,730 .......................... 2,102
Preferred Stock
Other Adjustments (317)................................. (317).............................. (319) .............................(319)

Net Income Applicable
To Common Shares $8,806 ....................... $229 ............................. $9,411 .....................$1,780

cheers d998

 

[ducati998]

No takers for a technical analysis?
Hopefully I won't have to do one.............might have forgotten how, where's my box of indicators

d998

 

[ducati998]

SFAS 109 "Accounting for Income Taxes." SFAS 109 provides for the weighing of positive and negative evidence in determining whether it is more likely than not that a deferred tax asset is recoverable. The company incurred losses in 2002 and 2003 and had losses on an aggregate basis for the three-year period ended December 31, 2003. Because of these cumulative losses the company established a full valuation allowance of $11.5 million as of December 31, 2003. As a result of production from the company's first two deepwater projects starting in November 2003, as well as refinancing its highest cost debt in 2004, the company achieved profitable operations and has income on an aggregate basis for the three-year period ended December 31, 2004. Callon also expects 2005 production levels to exceed 2004 levels and expects to utilize most if not all of the deferred tax asset in 2005. As a result, the company reversed the valuation allowance which had a balance of $7.0 million as of December 31, 2004.

Consolidated Condensed Balance Sheets: December 31, December 31,
-------------------------------------- 2004 2003
(In thousands) ------------ ------------

Cash and cash equivalents $3,266 $8,700
Restricted cash(a) --- 63,345
Oil and gas properties, net 406,690 390,163
All other assets 47,567 33,824
---------- ----------
Total assets $457,523 $496,032
========== ==========

Long-term debt including $192,927 $308,108
All other liabilities 66,284 54,663
Stockholders' equity 198,312 133,261
---------- ----------
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity $457,523 $496,032

 

[Glenn]

D998
I'm not going to do TA on this for reason stated elsewhere.
However if anyone does, I think that they should be allowed to decide which charts they want to use, rather than have that decision imposed upon them.

For example, in addition to a variety of timescales, they may also elect to look at the Sector chart for that stock and the overall market chart. They may wish to bring in bullish percent charts of various kinds, Gann, Elliot, Point and figure etc etc.
This is not a hint about how I work, but an indication that TA is not necessarily as narrow a field as you appear to believe.

And simplistically the state of the market at the higher levels (Sector and main Index) has a greater impact upon the price of a stock than anything to do with the stock itself. Most people who look at stock charts appear to ignore this simple but vital fact, as indeed do most fundamentalists.

People who use escalators should note which direction they are moving in before they get on board.
Glenn

 

[ducati998]

Glenn,
Hell, they can use anything they want. I've seen astrology analysis, vertical lines, in different colours, spaced every 3months apart ( this was from the HEAD TRADER @ CITIBANK), and almost everything in between.

Take your pick, Gann, Fibs, P&V, whatever...............
I find it odd that on a TA site no-one will post a public analysis......32,000 members, not 1 willing to step up and post a brief analysis???

This is not a hint about how I work, but an indication that TA is not necessarily as narrow a field as you appear to believe.

Oh yes it is. Everything you have mentioned is a different way of trying to do the same thing.
Predict price movement............and almost by definition ........a very narrow field.

People who use escalators should note which direction they are moving in before they get on board.

How often does that escalator reverse on you half way up, or down.........?

cheers d998

 

[ducati998]

SOCRATES,
Com'on baby...........give me an analysis................a taste of that considerable experience !!!! :cheesy:

 

[ducati998]

Well, I guess there is much more talk than action.
No-one is prepared to give away their secrets......

Ok, I'll do it myself. This is based on the daily chart.

Horizontal Support @ $14
Horizontal Support, weaker in nature @ $15

Trendline, from $11, following $12.50'ish, following to $14.75'ish

Triangle formed with said trendline, and intersection of downward slope of recent high and selloff.

Fib levels..........can't do these myself, no charting software anymore, but at a guesstimate, we'll say @ circa the 36% level ( or the one above the 50% line)

CONCLUSIONS.
The outlook would seem to be bullish. The "uptrend " would seem to still intact, and an entry @ $15.25'ish, with a stop somewhere around $14.80'ish would be where I'd be.

Some basic information that may be taken into account by an average technical trader.
At the "high" of $18......earnings were missed by $0.12 / share
Industry is Oil & Gas, which is currently quite topical, with Oil @ $55 / barrel currently.

cheers d998

All the usual disclaimers, do your own work, not investment advice, not qualified advisor etc.

 

[ducati998]

Analysis #2

Using EMA's
Has found support on 50period EMA
200 period EMA still uptrending and looking solid

Conclusions.
Bullish

Use 50EMA as a stoploss point, close below, exit.
Use 200EMA as a stoploss, close below, exit

d998

 

[ducati998]

Analysis # 3

New High breakout.
Sort of a turtle strategy.

Enter on breakout, or pullback to support, stoploss placed on a close below 180 period EMA.

This quite obviously has a bullish outlook, or conclusion.

 

[ducati998]

Analysis # 4

RSI........
RSI is around the oversold levels where previously " PRICE " has reversed.
Still a little high, but hey is this a science, or just a bit of gut feel, but by jingo I'm bullish.

Stoploss, would be a hard stop below a support level, in this case @ $14.80'ish

d998

 

[ducati998]

Analysis # 5

MACD.
Bit of a divergence from the other analyses. MACD would seem to indicate that price is still a bit weak, and possibly has a little further to fall.

Conclusion.
Aggressive entry, take trade with tight stop.

Passive entry, wait for confirmation, but may miss the boat, or save yourself being stopped out for a loss..............I always sucked at trying to use MACD............but BEARISH......step aside for the moment.

Definitely does not indicate a SHORT ENTRY however.

 

[ducati998]

Analysis # 6

Volume.

Dropped of from the high price with high volume, has settled back into average volume.
Where the overall market was weak last week, selling pressure has not materialised, and price seems to have stabilised, with I assume long positions.

Conclusion..............bullish baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

d998

 

[ducati998]

Last Trade: 16.00
Trade Time: 4:00PM ET
Change: 0.76 (4.99%)
Prev Close: 15.24
Open: 15.85
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 17.33

Day's Range: 15.60 - 16.06
52wk Range: 10.15 - 18.00
Volume: 234,200
Avg Vol (3m): 129,454
Market Cap: 281.54M
P/E (ttm): 13.78
EPS (ttm): 1.16
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)

If I have time later today I'll post the contrasting fundamental analysis, which will shed an interesting comparison.

Currently, the old 50 / 50 seems to have worked out, but, you would have needed to enter on fridays close, or a day or two previously.

cheers d998

 

[ducati998]

CALLON PETROLEUM (NYSE:CPE) Delayed quote data

Last Trade: 16.25
Trade Time: 4:00PM ET
Change: 0.25 (1.56%)
Prev Close: 16.00
Open: 16.20
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 17.33

Day's Range: 16.10 - 16.60
52wk Range: 10.15 - 18.00
Volume: 155,000
Avg Vol (3m): 129,454
Market Cap: 285.94M
P/E (ttm): 13.66
EPS (ttm): 1.19
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)

 

[ducati998]

I'm just going to give one member a chance to Soc it to me, with some analysis, and then I'll add the Fundamental analysis.

To be honest, it is not terribly time dependant, its going to hold true for some time.

ROGUE,
Could you update the daily chart for me please, when you have time?
cheers d998

 

[Tapewormtoo]

I will take a shot. Bearish next 2 to 10 days. Short at 16.50 to 17.00 when tape indicates best entry. Stop loss 17.50. Cover anywhere below 15.00 within next 10 days. This could change some depending on what the tape says tomorrow. However, I will state at what point I did take a simulated position and then we will see how that position turns out.

This is pure tape reading analysis. No indicators.

TW2

Disclaimer: For education only. For simulated trading only. Not to be used in real trading. You can lose tons of money in real trading of stocks, indexes, or futures. I am posting this only as a simulated trade and never to be used in real trading.