yes. i see your two arrows highlight confluence of dy and in res, with an encouraging lr set
Hi MM,
I found this thread last night and just finished it today. It's great to see your progress! Can you elaborate on what dy stand for?
Thanks
J
yes. i see your two arrows highlight confluence of dy and in res, with an encouraging lr set
Hi MM,
I found this thread last night and just finished it today. It's great to see your progress! Can you elaborate on what dy stand for?
Thanks
J
sorry yes dynamic,ie a s/r line that changes level with time, perhaps showing a mean that price may temporarily revert to, ie retest
Forexmospherian, you mentioned earlier in this thread that you adjust your LRs accordingly and dynamically depending on how the robots act in the markets. Would you mind shedding some light about how you change the values on the Lrs and how you know when to change them?
Looking forward for your reply
Hi F, I just recently started studying your thread. I think it's great and I really appreciate you giving us your time to share you system. Your logic make perfect sense to me. I have gone through about 10% of your thread, but there is some terminology I'm not familiar with. So at the risk of sounding ignorant, I have a few questions.
1) Can you tell me what "PA" and "Coalface" mean?
2) What are you referencing with "Time window"?
3) LR2, are you referring to Linear Regression?
A) Is there anything wrong with setting a 5-7 pip hard stop, just in case I'm not true to myself, and hesitate getting out?
B) The platform I'm on is MT4. I don't think I can close 70% of a trade and let 30% ride. or use a tick chart?
Thanks,
Rockford
You do know its ok if you blow your demo account ,you wont owe anything back ...just fill out the form and get another oneAfter the events of January 15th - and a massive 3000 / 3500 pip drop on the Swissy many traders have become very worried - especially when they hear from others that besides losing their Capital - they can actually owe the Brokers additional 10's of thousands etc etc.
How do you safeguard yourself when you are Forex trading from these occasional Black Swan event ??
First of all check out the charts on the main pairs you trade - and go back 10 -20 - even 30 yrs . A 3000+ pip move in under an hour is really very rare.
Yes - you can have 150 - 300 pip quick drops in 20 mins etc with sudden unexpected world events - and yes you can have pairs move 500 -1000 + pips on a total day - but with those occasions you do have time to exit or get out of your bad positions.
Events like January 15th - might happen again in next year or two - or never happen again for 15 or 30 yrs - thats really the unknown etc.
First thing - does your broker have a negative balance cover - and will not chase you if you get wiped out. Both my brokers do - Dukascopy and Fxpro .
If they are proper ECN brokers they cannot offer you guaranteed stops - as it outside their control from what I understand - its only on market maker spread betting brokers who use their own books etc that maybe can do that - and i dont know if any offer a negative balance guarantee - worth checking out.
However there are other ways - especially once you become experienced and understand your own method - inside out and have done a complete SWOT analysis on it .
For me - I no longer play with a $150 -200k account of pre 2009 / 10.
Nowadays I have 2 broker accounts with the maximum in either of $70k and withdraw monies very regularly via bacs - I am not interested in compounding from my normal 2 - 10 lots max up to 25 or 50 lots - as I did that back over 5 years ago - and it did my head in - and I realised I could not hack it using my own funds.
I dont mind losing say $300 on a scalp - even $500 is acceptable - but the idea of $1500 or $2k down in drain in 2 - 10 mins - well unsettled me. Ok It was my financial wall - On the good side i might have a lot larger wins - ie $3k or even $5k on a good scalp - - but I was scared - and I am being honest - and in those days I did not know all I know today.
So normally I might scalp on up to 6 lots and leave 2 lots a pip on 30% stakes
2 lots ie $20 a pip is really like 0.2 % of my capital and 6 lots still under 1%
But in real cash terms on a 7 pip stop I could lose over $400 - that's my downside on average when I trade .
If I had have been caught in the UChf or EChf - I would have had anything from say $45 to 70k - a lot of money ( remember negative balance guarantee so no worry of losing more than my capital).
Now that's a lot of money - but in relative terms its only 10 good weeks to maximum 4 months of trading profits - hardly the end of my world - but still not an event you want.
Ok - what can you do to safe guard you capital if you are full time and working with capital over $50k +.?
Well according to my own records and stats - and I do have loads from the approx 7 yrs full time - on bad periods I only average over 62% win ratio on batches of 100 trades and in good periods up to 87 wins on 100 trades.
Lets average it low at say 65% then
I have had 7 consecutive loses ages ago but nowadays it rare to have over 5 in a row - and most of them might only be with only minus 2 or 3 pips not 5 or 7 pips.
I would stop for the day if I had 6 consecutive losses before say Midday and do a major review - I accept 1 and 2 - dont like 3 in a row - normally have an hour off and come back in another period after news etc.
So with those stats - based on multi thousands of live trades - why do I only risk under normally 1% of capital - ???
Exactly - I am in charge of my own destiny and I always look and think outside the box.
So if I am prepared to lose up to say $400 on a bad trade - although normally I try and keep it under $250 - lets say thats my stake size limit ie max 5 lots
Now I can trade 5 lots on a lot less capital - but I dont want it being say 10 or 15% of my capital at my brokers - its no problem really when you know your downside and your risk probability.
So if I just placed say $7k in a safe ECN broker - with negative balance guarantee thats might my maximum exposure.
I can easily trade on 3 or even 5 lots with tight stops - ie like I normally do
OK 7 bad trades will wipe out half the capital or more - but in real cash terms it still only a few thousands of loss - like say a total of 3 or 4% on my larger balance not now at the brokers
My daily target is 50 pips. Some days I struggle to make 50 pips - other days like this last Thursday and Friday - it was fairly easy on trades with stops in profit and nice rally's
Whats the difference - well my maximum exposure now need only be less than $10k on any day - even if we have bigger black swan event than we did on the 15th of January - I can live with that - and even take risks of trading on the hour and exact half hr time frames ;-)
Look forward to hearing other ideas - please don't do anything I do - unless you fully understand FX and all its risk etc.
Remember - I am a very experienced FX intraday trader - I dont make money selling courses or blogging - I make money trading - day in day out ;-)
Good Trading
Regards
F
After the events of January 15th - and a massive 3000 / 3500 pip drop on the Swissy many traders have become very worried - especially when they hear from others that besides losing their Capital - they can actually owe the Brokers additional 10's of thousands etc etc.
How do you safeguard yourself when you are Forex trading from these occasional Black Swan event ??
First of all check out the charts on the main pairs you trade - and go back 10 -20 - even 30 yrs . A 3000+ pip move in under an hour is really very rare.
Yes - you can have 150 - 300 pip quick drops in 20 mins etc with sudden unexpected world events - and yes you can have pairs move 500 -1000 + pips on a total day - but with those occasions you do have time to exit or get out of your bad positions.
Events like January 15th - might happen again in next year or two - or never happen again for 15 or 30 yrs - thats really the unknown etc.
First thing - does your broker have a negative balance cover - and will not chase you if you get wiped out. Both my brokers do - Dukascopy and Fxpro .
If they are proper ECN brokers they cannot offer you guaranteed stops - as it outside their control from what I understand - its only on market maker spread betting brokers who use their own books etc that maybe can do that - and i dont know if any offer a negative balance guarantee - worth checking out.
However there are other ways - especially once you become experienced and understand your own method - inside out and have done a complete SWOT analysis on it .
For me - I no longer play with a $150 -200k account of pre 2009 / 10.
Nowadays I have 2 broker accounts with the maximum in either of $70k and withdraw monies very regularly via bacs - I am not interested in compounding from my normal 2 - 10 lots max up to 25 or 50 lots - as I did that back over 5 years ago - and it did my head in - and I realised I could not hack it using my own funds.
I dont mind losing say $300 on a scalp - even $500 is acceptable - but the idea of $1500 or $2k down in drain in 2 - 10 mins - well unsettled me. Ok It was my financial wall - On the good side i might have a lot larger wins - ie $3k or even $5k on a good scalp - - but I was scared - and I am being honest - and in those days I did not know all I know today.
So normally I might scalp on up to 6 lots and leave 2 lots a pip on 30% stakes
2 lots ie $20 a pip is really like 0.2 % of my capital and 6 lots still under 1%
But in real cash terms on a 7 pip stop I could lose over $400 - that's my downside on average when I trade .
If I had have been caught in the UChf or EChf - I would have had anything from say $45 to 70k - a lot of money ( remember negative balance guarantee so no worry of losing more than my capital).
Now that's a lot of money - but in relative terms its only 10 good weeks to maximum 4 months of trading profits - hardly the end of my world - but still not an event you want.
Ok - what can you do to safe guard you capital if you are full time and working with capital over $50k +.?
Well according to my own records and stats - and I do have loads from the approx 7 yrs full time - on bad periods I only average over 62% win ratio on batches of 100 trades and in good periods up to 87 wins on 100 trades.
Lets average it low at say 65% then
I have had 7 consecutive loses ages ago but nowadays it rare to have over 5 in a row - and most of them might only be with only minus 2 or 3 pips not 5 or 7 pips.
I would stop for the day if I had 6 consecutive losses before say Midday and do a major review - I accept 1 and 2 - dont like 3 in a row - normally have an hour off and come back in another period after news etc.
So with those stats - based on multi thousands of live trades - why do I only risk under normally 1% of capital - ???
Exactly - I am in charge of my own destiny and I always look and think outside the box.
So if I am prepared to lose up to say $400 on a bad trade - although normally I try and keep it under $250 - lets say thats my stake size limit ie max 5 lots
Now I can trade 5 lots on a lot less capital - but I dont want it being say 10 or 15% of my capital at my brokers - its no problem really when you know your downside and your risk probability.
So if I just placed say $7k in a safe ECN broker - with negative balance guarantee thats might my maximum exposure.
I can easily trade on 3 or even 5 lots with tight stops - ie like I normally do
OK 7 bad trades will wipe out half the capital or more - but in real cash terms it still only a few thousands of loss - like say a total of 3 or 4% on my larger balance not now at the brokers
My daily target is 50 pips. Some days I struggle to make 50 pips - other days like this last Thursday and Friday - it was fairly easy on trades with stops in profit and nice rally's
Whats the difference - well my maximum exposure now need only be less than $10k on any day - even if we have bigger black swan event than we did on the 15th of January - I can live with that - and even take risks of trading on the hour and exact half hr time frames ;-)
Look forward to hearing other ideas - please don't do anything I do - unless you fully understand FX and all its risk etc.
Remember - I am a very experienced FX intraday trader - I dont make money selling courses or blogging - I make money trading - day in day out ;-)
Good Trading
Regards
F
Hi Rockford
1) PA - price action - ie movements of candles / bars etc etc higher highs and higher lows or opposites for down - "coalface" - tick charts and one minute chart movements - every new moves as a beginning - that start is found best by drilling down to a tick / 1 min chart
2)Time windows - ie 9 mins either side of the 30 min and 60 min frame changes - 80% + of all my trades start in TW's
3) Yes - LR's are linear regression indicator - normal setting 14 - I use as low as 2 on special platform and normally from 15 to 700
4) Unless you are really experienced to try and catch new trades on a 5 / 7 pips stop is very difficult - ie riding a unicycle and juggling 3 balls etc. Start with say 8 -12 pip stops and the work on your timings etc. The more experienced and skilled you become - its possible on some pairs with just 0 5 pip spreads to have stops at 3 pips - ie super tight and then a 13 pip move can be a RR of 3 or 4 and on 1% stake thats a great return in say 5 -15 mins
Personally I dont recommend MT4 platforms
Yes they are great for adding lots of EA 's etc etc and flashing lights etc etc - but best charts I know cost money from $100 to 200 a month . However Ctrader and Dukoscopy charts are fairly good
Please remember my method is fairly complex and ideally you need to be of at least an intermediary level with 12 -18 months of trading experience behind you before really attempting to take it on
It can take 4 -9 months to get to a competent level using it - but I am happy to help traders who want to try it out and know more
Good Trading
Regards
F
Hi F, thanks for getting back with me.
1) Just so I understand, are you referring to "coalface" as a new beginning? ie a retrace to the 50% fib, then reversing?
2) Time window, that's very interesting. Do you feel that the time window is significant because that's when a lot of other traders are initiating trades?
3) Is there anywhere on your thread where you explain how you're using linear regression?
4) I have recently been using a 10 pip stop, and I've noticed if I make a point to enter on a pullback that most times I at least pick up the spread, and even if it's a loser entry, I don't get crushed.
I'm not big on indicators, the less I have to look at the better. Lately I've been using a strength meter. Do you use one?
Thanks,
Rockford
P.S. I may not agree with everything someone says, but it blows my mind how anyone would take time out of their day to to knock someone for attempting to help another. And, if trader isn't a scalper, why are they here reading your thread.
http://forexmagnates.com/covered-brokers-forgive-negative-balance-following-chf-crisis/
Well FXPro and Dukascopy have no problem keeping to their promises - and so do many others on the list
It is important that you chose a ECN broker who advertises they features and as integrity.
Unfortunately FXCM and IG are just not to be trusted
So Fugazsy - yes find a good broker and then you can relax more.
I had back over $200k with GFT UK in 2009 / 10 - but realised I could not hack it above 20/ 25 lots - so had to change completely my plans and no longer compound etc etc
I dropped to approx $70k believing I would still at times uses 12 -15 lots per pip - but nowadays I prefer not to have sweaty palms and palpations - ( especially at my age ;-) ) and keep under 8 -10 lots maximum and then withdraw profits regularly.
You do get to a "comfort level stage" - I know mine and when I scalp on 4 -6 lot stakes I have the comfort of knowing I have taking many multi thousands of live trades at this level -and its still possible to earn an excellent monthly cash return - way above what I was earning in my peak in the business world
Regards
F
After the events of January 15th - and a massive 3000 / 3500 pip drop on the Swissy many traders have become very worried - especially when they hear from others that besides losing their Capital - they can actually owe the Brokers additional 10's of thousands etc etc.
How do you safeguard yourself when you are Forex trading from these occasional Black Swan event ??
First of all check out the charts on the main pairs you trade - and go back 10 -20 - even 30 yrs . A 3000+ pip move in under an hour is really very rare.
Yes - you can have 150 - 300 pip quick drops in 20 mins etc with sudden unexpected world events - and yes you can have pairs move 500 -1000 + pips on a total day - but with those occasions you do have time to exit or get out of your bad positions.
Events like January 15th - might happen again in next year or two - or never happen again for 15 or 30 yrs - thats really the unknown etc.
First thing - does your broker have a negative balance cover - and will not chase you if you get wiped out. Both my brokers do - Dukascopy and Fxpro .
If they are proper ECN brokers they cannot offer you guaranteed stops - as it outside their control from what I understand - its only on market maker spread betting brokers who use their own books etc that maybe can do that - and i dont know if any offer a negative balance guarantee - worth checking out.
However there are other ways - especially once you become experienced and understand your own method - inside out and have done a complete SWOT analysis on it .
For me - I no longer play with a $150 -200k account of pre 2009 / 10.
Nowadays I have 2 broker accounts with the maximum in either of $70k and withdraw monies very regularly via bacs - I am not interested in compounding from my normal 2 - 10 lots max up to 25 or 50 lots - as I did that back over 5 years ago - and it did my head in - and I realised I could not hack it using my own funds.
I dont mind losing say $300 on a scalp - even $500 is acceptable - but the idea of $1500 or $2k down in drain in 2 - 10 mins - well unsettled me. Ok It was my financial wall - On the good side i might have a lot larger wins - ie $3k or even $5k on a good scalp - - but I was scared - and I am being honest - and in those days I did not know all I know today.
So normally I might scalp on up to 6 lots and leave 2 lots a pip on 30% stakes
2 lots ie $20 a pip is really like 0.2 % of my capital and 6 lots still under 1%
But in real cash terms on a 7 pip stop I could lose over $400 - that's my downside on average when I trade .
If I had have been caught in the UChf or EChf - I would have had anything from say $45 to 70k - a lot of money ( remember negative balance guarantee so no worry of losing more than my capital).
Now that's a lot of money - but in relative terms its only 10 good weeks to maximum 4 months of trading profits - hardly the end of my world - but still not an event you want.
Ok - what can you do to safe guard you capital if you are full time and working with capital over $50k +.?
Well according to my own records and stats - and I do have loads from the approx 7 yrs full time - on bad periods I only average over 62% win ratio on batches of 100 trades and in good periods up to 87 wins on 100 trades.
Lets average it low at say 65% then
I have had 7 consecutive loses ages ago but nowadays it rare to have over 5 in a row - and most of them might only be with only minus 2 or 3 pips not 5 or 7 pips.
I would stop for the day if I had 6 consecutive losses before say Midday and do a major review - I accept 1 and 2 - dont like 3 in a row - normally have an hour off and come back in another period after news etc.
So with those stats - based on multi thousands of live trades - why do I only risk under normally 1% of capital - ???
Exactly - I am in charge of my own destiny and I always look and think outside the box.
So if I am prepared to lose up to say $400 on a bad trade - although normally I try and keep it under $250 - lets say thats my stake size limit ie max 5 lots
Now I can trade 5 lots on a lot less capital - but I dont want it being say 10 or 15% of my capital at my brokers - its no problem really when you know your downside and your risk probability.
So if I just placed say $7k in a safe ECN broker - with negative balance guarantee thats might my maximum exposure.
I can easily trade on 3 or even 5 lots with tight stops - ie like I normally do
OK 7 bad trades will wipe out half the capital or more - but in real cash terms it still only a few thousands of loss - like say a total of 3 or 4% on my larger balance not now at the brokers
My daily target is 50 pips. Some days I struggle to make 50 pips - other days like this last Thursday and Friday - it was fairly easy on trades with stops in profit and nice rally's
Whats the difference - well my maximum exposure now need only be less than $10k on any day - even if we have bigger black swan event than we did on the 15th of January - I can live with that - and even take risks of trading on the hour and exact half hr time frames ;-)
Look forward to hearing other ideas - please don't do anything I do - unless you fully understand FX and all its risk etc.
Remember - I am a very experienced FX intraday trader - I dont make money selling courses or blogging - I make money trading - day in day out ;-)
Good Trading
Regards
F
And dont you worry nobody here will do what you do ...they are to busy trading to be blogging all day[/QUOTE]
This is the type of myth put out by the Dumb and Dumber traders and I will explain why it shows they must be real novices - ie not been live trading for over 5 years +
Let's compare it to say driving a car.
When you first learn to drive - it can be both mind and energy sapping - ie concentrating and say 2 hrs of driving would make you feel tired.
After you passed your test and been driving a year or two - you have more confidence and can even multi task whilst you are in traffic and on the motorway - ie on a hand's fee phone - setting up your sat nav - changing radio stations / CD' / ipods etc etc as well as eating a sandwich and drinking a coffee and keeping an eye on speed camera's - ie multi tasking
Ok all that at the same time is not advisable and also can be illegal - but the point is what was tough and tiring - becomes easier and 4 -6 hr of driving are no longer tiring slogs - Ok maybe on the M25 - but not down from the south of France into Northern Italy - in fact very enjoyable.
After 5+ yrs plus of driving different cars - you actually can do all of the driving requirements - subconsciously - you dont have to concentrate so much - in fact you can drive say 5 miles and forget even covering the distance - it becomes second nature.
If you are into cars ( like me ) and enjoy track days and even a have a race licence etc - you find out that you can explore the limits of your car - or even a single seater / rally car / etc and do things you would never attempt on normal roads - such as opposite locking and 4 wheel drifts at over 100 mph etc
Could you have done that in your first 6 months of driving - would you even have attempted it ??
Now - back to intraday trading
Once you have been doing it a few years - day in - day out - taken over 1000's of trades on live accounts - it really does get boring - monotonous etc etc.
Only real proper retail ( not commercial ) FX Intraday pro's know this - you actually goes through the motions - just like driving - it becomes easier.
You know you will never get every trade correct - ie target 30 pips and you always hit 30 pips etc. You accept being wrong - even with a good top method - you expect the unexpected ( like driving ) you take precautions - ie MM and procedures ( just like wearing you seat belt and having an air bag ) - you end up not do high fives and cries of joy when you win - and kicking the dog when you lose.
Its different.
Now anyone who says you cannot type comments and take 10 to 20 trades over say 6 -10 hrs - is really a proper plonker - yes a PLONKER .
Ok there are lots of traders who only take one or two trades a day and they then wait for hours for either a win or have their 40 -70 pip stop taken out . They have loads of time to do other things in between - they maybe set an forget.
Similar if I really scalped for just 1 -3 pips an took 50 trades+ a session - i would be tired out after 4 hours and would not have time to do much else.
But - I only take maximum 4 trades per hour ( max ) many hours only 1 or 2 scalps.
Its so easy - and simple - but only after years and years of hard graft and study and adaptation - just like riding a unicycle whilst juggling - so hard - but after 100's of hrs or learning - it becomes fairly easy ;-)
Just like typing - if you are not using more than 2 fingers - you are not trying - but you dont half improve with more practice.
So in conclusion
Intraday FX trading and blooging on one or two threads - is a "piece of cake " to very experienced full time traders - it really is
Am I just more interested in blogging ??
Well if I was I would be on all the sites - I am not on - ie Facebook / Twitter / Instagram / skype rooms / loads of other forums etc etc
The fact that i would still be typing my notes just for me - ( and did for over 6 months ) is how I actually found out it helped me trade - stay focused / assisted in thought patterns etc etc
Do I make money from blogging ??
No at all
Do I make money from Intraday FX trades
SURE DO
Regards
F