Intraday Trading the Forex market to make consistent profit

[Forexmospherian]

F:

I understand that is the way you use it. But for me to understand it, I need to understand the pieces before I can understand the whole.... then it will all come together for me. Different people learn differently... some need to see the whole first, others need to see the pieces first.

Everything you have shared is valuable but I won't "get it" until I "get" the pieces.

So far, I "get" the white LR crossover. I think I "get" the green/yellow/red. But the rest, I am not sure of and this is why I ask the questions. So F, it you will just please humor me a little while longer....

Thanks, F.

No Problem TRO

I will over the weekend give you more examples on the LR structure and yes - its maybe good to look at them as 3 different systems made up of quick Lr's - the white 3 - then short intraday swings - ie red - yellow - green - and then more day session bias based on the 2 or 3 longer term LRs over 300+

The interconnection for me is the 30 min time windows - and of course both - dynamic and horizontal S & R areas. I know you are well into horizontal S & R but also dynamic from trendlines are so useful for the 5 -20 pip moves

Yes will carry on with more of the detail and please carry on firing away with the questions etc

Regards


F

 

[TheRumpledOne]

No Problem TRO

I will over the weekend give you more examples on the LR structure and yes - its maybe good to look at them as 3 different systems made up of quick Lr's - the white 3 - then short intraday swings - ie red - yellow - green - and then more day session bias based on the 2 or 3 longer term LRs over 300+

The interconnection for me is the 30 min time windows - and of course both - dynamic and horizontal S & R areas. I know you are well into horizontal S & R but also dynamic from trendlines are so useful for the 5 -20 pip moves

Yes will carry on with more of the detail and please carry on firing away with the questions etc

Regards


F

Thanks F, I really do appreciate your time.

I don't have any other questions for now. I need the answers to the ones I have asked so I may continue my work.

Thanks again, F.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

You can scalp purely with the 3 quick white LRs going over price for a sell or under price for a buy

Sub window 2 shows the history of the scalp indication.

DOES THIS LOOK CORRECT F?

 

[TheRumpledOne]

You can scalp purely with the 3 quick white LRs going over price for a sell or under price for a buy

Sub window 2 shows the history of the scalp indication.

DOES THIS LOOK CORRECT F?

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Another piece to the puzzle:

when all the 9 Lrs line up - under or over price

See sub window 3

See F, I AM paying attention :smart:

 

[TheRumpledOne]

and ANOTHER PIECE:

- if then the whites swop with the reds and yellows - yet again going over or under

See sub window 4 for the white/red/yellow indicator

 

[TheRumpledOne]

F:

You have mentioned price in relation to LRs and LRs in relation to each other. What you have NOT mentioned is direction of LRs (rising/falling). Isn't LR direction important, too?

You could have red/yellow/green lined up in the correct order but depending their direction you would wait/buy or wait/sell.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Not too bad...

 

[Forexmospherian]

You can scalp purely with the 3 quick white LRs going over price for a sell or under price for a buy

Sub window 2 shows the history of the scalp indication.

DOES THIS LOOK CORRECT F?

Morning TRO

Yes looking at the lower window - which I presume is window 2 - the multiple reds squares would be be sells and multiple greens the buy

Are these coloured squares produced every minute and the grey coloured saying wait or dont enter ?

When I say multiple - I think you need just 2 or more to enter and the fact that my best scalps for 7 -25 pips normally are in the 5 -15 min range in busy periods - but they have to be entered in the time windows and be assisted by S or R - whether major or minor.

Trouble is having to wait 2 mins to confirm - might be too long in some cases and thats why you need to code in key window times ie 9 mins either side the hr and half hr frame changes. I dont know whether that can be done - but I am sure you will find a way ??

You also mention the direction of the LRs - yes - when they are pointing up - and under price or along side it - you expect a price rise and a scalp buy. When they point down etc - opposite.

The angle of rise or fall is also important - ideally you need above 22 degrees either up or down. I do use ray lines with angles on them once I am in trades - to assist me seeing what pullbacks are allowed - they are not a main reason to enter or exit a trade - but all part of this complex method.

i know this might be against the grain to naked or keep it simple traders - but I thrive on micro managing and complexity - to achieve the accuracy I require to achieve the ROR % I am after. You will not get 30- 50%+ returns monthly on retail size accounts ( non compounding) with a simple method and simple money management.

For example on 3 pairs I was trading and monitoring yesterday - during my key main trading window - ie 6 30 am UK time to 6 pm UK - say 12 hrs there was over 55 opportunities to take scalps with 4 -7 pip stops and achieve over 11 pips net ( ie 11 5 to 13 pips gross) ie RR's of 1 5. ( on the EJ /GU /EA )

At least 15 of these opportunities would have given RR's of above 2 and at least 6 would allow targets of over 30 pips - giving RR's of 4 +.

There is no way I will catch all the 55+ opportunities on 3 pairs over a 12 hr period - I am delighted if I catch 10 or more - and if I don't catch at least 5 - then it shows I am not focused or simply not trying hard enough.

Even on 1% stake size - on busy days 3 -6 % daily gains are possible on retail size accounts - ie under $100k - with no compounding. This is also allowing 2 or 3 losses out of the 10 + trades taken - and consistency means on a 20 day trading day you should not be faced with 5 or 7 losing days - even 2 losing days a month are just bad and shows you are not focused and operating correctly.

I hope this is all helping you to see were I am coming from and to understand my method in more detail

More to follow

Regards


F

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Good day, F:

The verticle lines are the start, midpoint and ending key window times.

Yes, the gray means wait/no signal.

Yes, each square is produced (calculated) for each candle... every minute on a one minute chart.

When the first green/buy or red/sell box appears, that is the signal to consider entering a trade.

F, another question is whether or not you will trade the 3 white LRs against the trade direction indicated by the red/yellow/green LRs (sub window 1)? In this example, would you BUY when the "traffic light" indicates SELL?

S & R may be a completely separate issue. But are you talking pivot point S & R or something else? I don't recall.

F, when I get all of the pieces coded properly, then I can build gauges and alerts that may allow you to catch more of the trades. Rather that watching charts, you can watch gauges or listen for alerts...that's the beauty of computers/indicators used properly in trading.

Thanks again, F.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Good day, F:

F, another question is whether or not you will trade the 3 white LRs against the trade direction indicated by the red/yellow/green LRs (sub window 1)? In this example, would you BUY when the "traffic light" indicates SELL?

S & R may be a completely separate issue. But are you talking pivot point S & R or something else? I don't recall.

Thanks again, F.

With regards to taking a scalp against the main red/ yellow / green Lr structure direction - Yes I would but all depending on the angle and speed of the last 30 min drop or rise.

I might have mentioned to you the "bouncy ball" effect. ie Sometimes you can have a nice fall of say 15+ pips and then over a period of a few minutes you get a quick continuation move of say 5 - 10 pips - either lasting less than a minute max 3 mins.

This produces what I call the " bouncy ball" effect - like throwing a hard ball at a concrete floor - you get a bounce and that bounce can be greater than the drop and so then a scalp the opposite way is on - as the bounce might be larger than 10+ pips.

Ideally it breaches a S or R by 3- 5 pips - but its false and still cannot properly break the barrier - maybe set up by large funds - pumping and then reversing their bids to create another move

The angle of the quick move also needs to be steep - ie above 65 degrees - not like normal 25 -50 degree moves - this can be calculated with ray lines - or approximated visually.

If i dont take the 3 white lr's scalp against the main LR trend - I might instead take 70% of the stake off - so not to be caught out - if the moves retraces well - and then either add again when the move returns - this saves you chasing every 3- 7 pip pullback - but safeguards you if one of these quick white Lr scalps ends up going on to make 20 - 50 + pips - and you are not in it ;-(

With regards to S & R - as you might guess - i dont take the easy options of precalculated pivots or Fibs etc etc - I need the accuracy of both dynamic and horizontal barriers- and where the cross or meet can best prices to enter etc.

They might only be 2 - 7 pips away from Fib numbers or daily / weekly pivots etc - - but 1- 3 pips does not matter - but being out 5 -7+ pips does matter.

They normally are shown by the last 2 hrs of PA - or if in new dally territory - then it might mean checking against the last ones made - whether previous day or 4+ days ago - they will be interim low/ high levels in a time window

For example my levels on the EU yesterday ( Friday 30th) were different to all 4 hr / daily traders- as I like to look upon them being more "real time" rather then estimated from the last 3- 5 days of PA.

Hope this all makes sense - more to follow


Regards


F

 

[TheRumpledOne]

F:

Here is a video I made about using a part of your Linear Regression method:

TRO - LINEAR REGRESSION

 

[TheRumpledOne]

F:

The buy/sell/wait messages now have what LRs are used to clear up communication:

RYG = RED, YELLOW, GREEN LRs
// red lr95 under yellow lr 180 under green lr285 BEAR
// red lr95 over yellow lr 180 over green lr285 BULL

3W = 3 WHITE LRs
// You can scalp purely with the 3 quick white LRs going over price for a sell or under price for a buy

WRY = WHITE, RED, YELLOW LRs
// if then the whites swop with the reds and yellows - yet again going over or under

9LR = ALL 9 LRs
// when all the 9 Lrs line up - under or over price

Thanks again, F.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Not sure which is better:

Vertical lines for time or

History indicator in sub window or

BOTH!?

 

[TheRumpledOne]

CONFLICTING SIGNALS!

Look at the sub windows under the big red candle...

3 WHITE LRs and RED, YELLOW, GREEN indicate SELL but WHITE, RED, YELLOW indicate BUY???

The short scalp would have been profitable, and the "bounce" would have been profitable, too.

The question is how does one determine which trade or trades to take?

F, I need the answer in an IF x THEN y ELSE z format. In fact, if you use that format to answer all of my questions, it will help immensely. Otherwise, I have to decode/decipher your answer into something I can use to code.

Thanks again, F.

P.S. I hope you're enjoying this as much as I am.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

YouTube: TRO QUESTIONS FOR F 001

 

[Forexmospherian]

YouTube: TRO QUESTIONS FOR F 001

Morning TRO

Will go through the questions you have raised on the video plus others from yesterday hopefully some time today

Regards


F

 

[Forexmospherian]

and ANOTHER PIECE:

- if then the whites swop with the reds and yellows - yet again going over or under

See sub window 4 for the white/red/yellow indicator

Hi TRO

i have gone through the video once now and have replies to approximately 12 questions

i will listen to it again just to double check your points - as I can see I have confused you on a few points - but they can easily be put right.

Good idea of the video so please as we progress - I think its a great way to communicate on what you are wanting to understand from a Lr chart - and also its easy to follow.

With regards to the EJ chart you have posted above - this one is a great example of a trade and I will take you through it from my chart posted here - which is the same as yours- except for the times at bottom.

Prior to the main news at 1 30 pm UK time ( 13 30pm - I think 2 30 or 14 30 on your chart) the EJ had been falling

But within 4 mins of the news - all 3 white Lrs had gone under price at 138 35

Then by 13 40 -42 pm on my chart all Lrs were under price

This is very significant

Up to 1 30 pm only the one Long term white dotted LR had been under price and 8 Lrs had been over

Within 10 -15 mins - all had changed -yes the news was the excuse - but the EJ LR price structure then wanted to carry on up - and not for just 10 -30 mins but for initially an hr up to 138.76 - ie a 34 pip rise - and then this carried on for approximately another 2 + hrs to a top at 138 87 - ie a 45 pip rise from the news and this topped in the 4 00 pm or 16 00 pm time window on my charts

Please study this set up - as it was perfect and with all the LRs under price at 13 40 pm - it showed the move should carry on for a few hours - and I am sure in normal volume times it would have been a 100+ pip move up

Also notice the LR structure prior to news and then 10 mins after it.

Between 4 00 - 5 00 pm and in the London close time - price had peaked my Lrs were saying exit and sell - but could not breach under supports at 138 -75-80 then

The 3 white quick Lrs are the trigger - and then they are supported by the rest of the LR's so that you end up in a nice strong up rally seeing 3 whites - red - yellow - green - green dotted and then the longest Lr the white dotted - all under price

For a strong down rally it would be opposite with the 3 white quick LR's over price followed by the red - yellow - green - green dotted - white dotted - but all pointing down and over price

Hope this make sense and its good to compare our 2 charts on the EJ

More to follow

Regards


F

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Hi F:

Thanks for the commentary.

Is it possible for you to label the LRs on your chart likdiple I have on mine? The Yellow LR 180 on yours track differently than mine. Your yellow LR is set for 180 periods, right?

After another look, it looks like my Yellow line is the same as one of your white dotted lines?!?!!? Look at how my Yellow line is above price and bends down towards the end of the day... your white dots do the same.

So F, if you could PLEASE list the LR periods/colors or maybe show your actual chart indicator settings somehow, I could get my chart to match yours and be much appreciative.

Looking forward to reading more... Thanks again, F.

 

[MajorMagnuM]

Hi F:

Thanks for the commentary.

Is it possible for you to label the LRs on your chart likdiple I have on mine? The Yellow LR 180 on yours track differently than mine. Your yellow LR is set for 180 periods, right?

Looking forward to reading more... Thanks again, F.

probably best to compare and fit , as i have found that the numbers are inconsistent across platforms and instruments