Intraday Trading the Forex market to make consistent profit

No offence, but this thread is for FM to discuss the way in which he trades. For those that are interested. My question was directed at him.
 
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tar said:
Agree but i don't think a 20 pips slippage is rare , the currency could gap 50 pips easily , not to mention at high volatility times the currency could move hundreds if not thousands of pips all day long i.e : 2008 .
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Completely agree.
I mentioned the risk of increased volatility here:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...ders-v-commercial-traders-30.html#post2254966

I quoted that post in this thread:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tra...ket-make-consistent-profit-4.html#post2286258

So yeah, I'm on the same page as you on that one.
 
ffsear said:
No offence, but this thread is for FM to discuss the way in which he trades. For those that are interested. My question was directed at him.
Click to expand...

Fair enough.
But if someone is spreading damaging misinformation,
I'll say so, if that isn't welcome, ban me, simple.
 
He's not spreading mis information. He is discussing his method. His method, and his method alone. For the sake of us that want to hear it, please let him answer.
 
ffsear said:
He's not spreading mis information. He is discussing his method. His method, and his method alone. For the sake of us that want to hear it, please let him answer.
Click to expand...

Thats the whole idea of discussion boards , you think he's not spreading mis-information others may disagree with that ...
 
HI LV and Tar

I would have to disagree with you both

I have been intraday trading full time for 7 yrs this June - full time - ie anything from 3 to 10 hrs a day at least 180 days a year per annum with a few years over 200 days

I have taken over 9000 live trades in that time

The incidents you are talking of are really small - ie probably have less than few % possibility of coinciding when you are are in 10 -15 min scalp - than being in a few days wing trade

Far more risk - the longer you are in the market sitting on a position

I have only once had 7 consecutive losses in a row - over 4 years ago at over 22 lots per pip - so if frightened me and I had to drop won many lots sizes

I have never suffered a 50 + pip gap whilst being in a scalp - NEVER

I have both negative and positive slippage and normally ie 95% of the time its less than 3 pips either way

You are both really scaremongering and suggest you both give up and not deal with a business of probabilities

If every one listened to what you are saying - they would not get up out of bed in the morning - never mind cross the road without asking for Police assistance - and then you would need to check and look in each direction 50 times#

Yes - bad things can happen - but you plan for the norm and the everyday - allowing for the odd "black swan" event once or twice a year - which is normally covered by some lucky incidents as well

It really is "swings and roundabouts" - its not all one sided just bad events

I promise you I have an answer for everything - and in this case that's why you do not allow your money to stay building in your account for years and years - and then have the bank go bust like Lehmans - after 50 yrs

God man - I am really surprised at such negative attitude - its beyond belief from 2 experienced traders

What are you guys - on because you are certainly not trading in the same forex market I am ??

And with regards to leverage - yet again way over the top - glorified scare mongering

So if you ever pass your test in a 4 cylinder mini car that does 70 mph - you should be prohibited from driving a 180 mph Ferrari ????

I could spend hours taking your comments apart - but I will not waste me time -

Let others decide and if there are many agreeing with all your over the top caution - I suggest they close their account today and do something else

Regards

F
 
From what I can see the people spreading misinformation are the traders who have not done over 10,000 live trades

Surely theory does not win over reality in the real world ?
 
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Tar - God ma n - yes I could win the Euro lottery on Thursday say 70 million Euros - I could - but whether I will - that's another matter

Could and would and did - yes anything can happen - but I tell you know it will more likely happen to you in a 4 - 12 hr swing trade than me in a 5 -15 min scalp ;-)
 
ffsear said:
Do you look at any individual candles themselves (assuming you use candles) such as pin bars, engulfing bars etc etc ?
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Hi ff

If they are in there with other clues - as far as I am concerned they are additional clues

On a tick chart I normally use a line rather than bars or candles and on my one min I have tried all 3 but really I am not a great candle fan

Yes they can give info - but I always need more than 3 or 4 clues - not just one

I have to differ on LV with regards to time frames and not correlating price to time

Its one of my most important indicators

Regards

F
 
Forexmospherian said:
From what I can see the people spreading misinformation are the traders who have not done over 10,000 live trades

Surely theory does not win over reality in the real world ?
Click to expand...

And we know you have because you say so?
No live trades (just advance level calls with after the fact claims of opening the trade).
No statements.

Sorry mate, I was perfectly willing to leave you alone on your thread.
Now you start a thread like this and expect not to be called out?

Over leverage on a new 10K account is ludicrous.
Risk of ruin is greatest at account start.
This is basic stuff.

Sorry, but if you are going to take it upon yourself to 'educate' people,
you should accept and be willing to answer those questions.
Also you should be giving low risk advice to someone starting with a 10k account,
not leverage to the hilt.

This is not personal, but entirely justifiable based on what you have posted
in this thread thus far.
 
Forexmospherian said:
I have to differ on LV with regards to time frames and not correlating price to time

Its one of my most important indicators
Click to expand...

That is not what I said.
There is a big difference between a time series chart in candle form
and raw time (session windows, peak volume etc.) - which I do agree with.
 
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Liquid validity said:
And we know you have because you say so?
No live trades (just advance level calls with after the fact claims of opening the trade).
No statements.

Sorry mate, I was perfectly willing to leave you alone on your thread.
Now you start a thread like this and expect not to be called out?

Over leverage on a new 10K account is ludicrous.
Risk of ruin is greatest at account start.
This is basic stuff.

Sorry, but if you are going to take it upon yourself to 'educate' people,
you should accept and be willing to answer those questions.
Also you should be giving low risk advice to someone starting with a 10k account,
not leverage to the hilt.

This is not personal, but entirely justifiable based on what you have posted
in this thread thus far.
Click to expand...


If you say 2% of a 10k live account with a 5 pips stop is over leverage - well I have to 100% disagree and call you totally out of order in the context of what I am recommending (ie the full context)

It is just not the same as having a correlation of using an 8% stake with a 20 pip stop - if that's what you are trying to refer it to

In fact you have similar odds on being stopped out on your trade with a 20 pip stop - simply because you will be after a larger target - may be 40 or 50 pips - and so you spend more time in the market whereas with a 5 pip stop you can exit with a 5 pip profit - with a higher probability of achieving with still an RR of 1.

You simply do not trade using 5 pip stops until you have the experience to do it - whether that takes 200 or 500 demo trades or 2000 trades to get there

Then when you go live - you still do not start with 2% on a 5 pip stop - start with just 1% and then once you have the win ratio you need then slowly up to 2% - but only when you have the backing of "free trades " already in profit during the day

See what you are forgetting and this is one of the differences between retail forex trading and commercial trading - a good experienced retailer trader needs to achieve over 20% per month on going ( but not compounding - different problem)

You need to double your capital account at least twice a year

By doing that you can than bank and take away from the broker and invest elsewhere - (spread your investments) and not simply just compound in this jungle - then you are far safer

Obviously Commercial Banks work entirely different and they are not going to double say their 100 million capital account - twice a year plus

But we as retailers working on under $100k - can do that - and you yourself know it can be done - but by just using half a percent with a tight stop with a small account - you are making it more difficult - ie working with one hand behind your back

To back up my argument more - my win ratios on just 5 pip stops average over 70%+ - I believe even DJ's are and he probably tries on a tighter stop.

MM - a 4 month trainee as already achieved over 85% on groups of 20 trades - but he will be playing safe when he goes live

Most traders using 20 and 30 pip plus stops are very lucky to hit 60% win ratio - if that

You are wrong just to try and correlate stake sizes and compare apples with oranges on stop sizes

As I have said I am not aiming this thread at newbies - unexperienced traders.

Its totally up to them to use what % stake they want on a 5 or 7 pip stop - I advise certainly not higher than 2 % you say no higher than 0 5 % - let them chose

I also say if they cannot get a win ratio over 65% on 5 -7 pips - they need to stay on demo and practice until they can on 100's of trades - and then when live again start with just 1% stake first again

They are also being taught to not wait to be stopped out - another point you are not taking into consideration

Even MM as been pulling scalps at minus 2 and 3 rather than wait for double that loss - and he knows he should not go chasing gains of 20% + per day by using 2%+

Remember I am experienced enough from my business life and have the knowledge to get round all the normal risk problems risk assessors would see as a problem. I am not clever than them - I just am far more experienced with working outside the box and solving problems others see as major hurdle

No way will any member trying my method be told to carry on after having over 5 consecutive bad scalps . They need to stop and review and not carry on

That could in theory be up to 10% of their account lost in those 5 bad trades - but more than likely under 7% as they would not wait on every trade for the stop to be hit

A normal swing trader using 2% on a 50 pip stop can still lose over 10% in a week

On 2% a trade and 20 trades - even with 5 bad trades in a row at the start or the end of the day - you can still end up in the black or break even

So I will defend my position with regards to what I am saying and can be backed up further with more evidence which will come from of the traders who want to try it out on the thread.

More myths to be shot down to follow


PS - I know it not personal and appreciate you , DJ and Tar focusing on the weaknesses you see in what I am saying

No problem

Regards

F
 
Forexmospherian said:
...To back up my argument more - my win ratios on just 5 pip stops average over 70%+ - I believe even DJ's are and he probably tries on a tighter stop...
Click to expand...

'Tis true, the trading gods have been kind to me of late, and my win rate isn't too shabby. However, in the interests of transparency to all reading, I should mention I risk a very small % of my account size. Very small. And I'll spare you the details, but my account isn't small (by self-funded trader standards).

Forexmospherian said:
On 2% a trade and 20 trades - even with 5 bad trades in a row at the start or the end of the day - you can still end up in the black or break even
PS - I know it not personal and appreciate you , DJ and Tar focusing on the weaknesses you see in what I am saying
Click to expand...

F glad to hear you're not taking it personally - none of this intended to be derogatory (I've had enough rants with others, I don't need more lol) - but as you and I have discussed before, I think we differ in outlook on risk mgmt and profit potential.

Suffice to say I focus a lot on risk mgmt. I think LV is right to draw attention to potential downsides - he knows his stuff. I for one have experienced a few things (with trades on) that 'shouldn't have happened'. Unannounced Central Bank intervention in an FX trade anyone? :)
 
Forexmospherian said:
If you say 2% of a 10k live account with a 5 pips stop is over leverage - well I have to 100% disagree and call you totally out of order in the context of what I am recommending (ie the full context)

It is just not the same as having a correlation of using an 8% stake with a 20 pip stop - if that's what you are trying to refer it to
Click to expand...

You misunderstand my point.
Yes 2% risk & 5 SL is not the same as 8% & 20 SL.
The point is your position size with 2% & 5 SL is 40 times larger than account.
With 0.5% and 5 SL, position size is only 10 times larger than account.

http://theessentialsoftrading.com/Blog/index.php/2007/03/22/what-leverage-is-really-all-about/

You stated earlier that bad slippage is rare, well yes.
Currently, if you avoid rollover, news, open and so on then yes it is.
I struggle to believe you didn't get any bad slippage during 2008 with a 5 SL though...

To clarify another point, TBH I don't actually think you advocating
trading this way is a bad thing really.
If it clicks with someone and they develop it further, good for them.
At worst (providing they keep control of leverage and risk) they will learn
how price moves more quickly and about the impact of trading costs.
They are also more likely to find out what kind of trading suits
them sooner rather than later.

I also differ regarding teaching people.
Personally, I think its better to give a few hints at most and let people
figure it out themselves, they are better off in the long run, in my view.

One last point - live trades and statements, I honestly don't get it.
If it was the other way around I would just post them.
You clearly aren't going to, for whatever reason, despite the fact that it would
shoot me and a few others down in flames in one fell swoop.
I'm pretty sure it would raise a smile with your followers as well :)

Forexmospherian said:
PS - I know it not personal and appreciate you , DJ and Tar focusing on the weaknesses you see in what I am saying
Click to expand...

Good, because it genuinely isn't, despite getting a little heated at times.
In truth, its futile and destructive to reduce a debate to ad hominem level.
It does nothing but muddy the waters.
I'm sure you are a decent bloke to all you know in person.
 
Will try and answer any more questions etc and post some more info on my method when I can get back on site OK - still having problems posting on T2W atm - think it a tech problem their end ?
 
Some previous comments will now apply to this next part of understanding how I trade - ie

"You need to be dynamic and totally flexible - remember all you want is to keep making money - every day - every week and every month"

"To do that you have to be flexible - and to get use to losing."

"Entries are paramount"

Sometimes I make a scalp trade and exit with say 6 pips profit - and realise - I was wrong - my target of 14 pips was not reached

So I make money even when I was not really correct in my judgement

If price does make my target say in the next hour - I still don't count me being correct - because it may have gone the other way 10 or 20 pips before making what I was originally after

I remember helping a trader 2 yrs ago in a chat room on another site - and he said I just cannot get your success rate - I am lucky to get 50% win ratio - and I am only after 15 pip targets off 7 pip stops.

He was basically telling me is problem - whilst answering it himself ......

ie - he was a "set in stone " trader in a dynamic free flowing market

He admitted yes - he had loads of 8 pip moves and even a few 12 pip - but only took profit at 15 pips

Yes I am sure you have guessed it - all the scalps that did not make 15 pips - ended up as losses at minus 7 pips

This trader was no way "thick" or a total novice - but he had been brainwashed to thinking you need fixed target - take no more - take no less

Please if anyone is doing that now trading intraday - stop it - and instead learn to tell the time and understand PA at the "coalface"

PS - yes the next month he was suddenly making a win ratio of over 65% off 7 pip stops and was suddenly profitable :)

More to follow and will answer some more questions I have not got round too

Please (please) if you disagree - please get involved - I love debate and will not try and shout you down etc etc - that's wrong - we all learn from each other and I am still wanting to learn more - and I am sure you are as well

Regards

F
 
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