Intraday Trading the Forex market to make consistent profit

Wtf does it matter if mopho wants to come on this suite of forums n walt it up anyway, no different to half the posters on here giving it the big old billy.

If LV, WP, random123456789 wanna bugger off then good kin riddance, pussies.! Obviously got no staying power and are not suited to teh trading anyway, probably still on demo or don't even attempt to trade, again, pussies teh lot of em. I'm off for a run!



that might shake em out ^^
 
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Before i start the next part now - I would just like to say - i don't want any old timer to leave simply because of me

I don't think they did anyway - but if any more old members are thinking of leaving - please don't - instead let me just carry on - put my threads on ignore - and I can just carry on hopefully just interacting with just a few members who want to know more how I trade - and similar - how they trade - so I can see if I can find other ways etc to incorporate good tips into my intraday trading

I am only interested in FX - intraday spot trading on any main pairs - surely there are a few other guys who make money every day doing similar to what i do

I know Dow Jones is one for a start and its looks as though Morgan_ edge is as well

I now have MM - who's still on the journey - but well on plan and hopefully another 2- 4 guys coming onto the thread more to have a go etc

That alone is enough for me try and help for a start. Imagine in 6 months time if we had 4 more like MM - and then we could cover more pairs and of course - 4 pairs of eyes and brains are better than one pair - if we are all singing off the same song sheet

I dont want to get involved in all the other thread etc - i just want to stay with what I know - FOREX

Ok - enough for now and Neil - please dont leave - stay and say how it progresses this next month or so

Cheers

F
 
FX Market - Game Play

Game play takes place in all forms of life - ie Sport - Business - Relationships - etc etc

For example as a sports analogy - in the past any Premier football team going to play Man U at old Trafford were good as beat - before the game even kicked off

The psychology part would kick in entering the ground - and then can you imagine facing someone like Roy Keane in the tunnel - who would "out-psych" and intimidate most opposition players before kick off

Well it's exactly the same in the Forex Market - you are really set up to lose before you even get good enough to even stay in the game

Lets look at what the two main components want to achieve - ie YOU and - the rest of the market - which after all is unregulated and massive

YOU - ideally you want to make a profit consistently - ie daily - weekly - monthly

Losses are accepted - as you know they will happen - you will be using your money and accept the risk. There are so many good theories and studies that will help you succeed - and you have read in the papers and seen on the TV - all the rich city type making money.( sigh)

Seems as though you have a chance - but do you really know what you are up against ie - the rest of the market ??

FX MARKET - well over 60% of it is comes from approx 7 - 10 large Banks - Are they a Monopoly - do they compete against each other ? well they are suppose to - we know some are more aggressive and good at gameplay than others ( ie Goldmans)

We also know that 1 bank - Deutsche Bank have nearly have 15% of the market - was reported to be over 20% at one time . Where are they from ? - yes Germany in the Eurozone .- ie not American

So how are they going to make a return on the billions they invest trading currencies ??

Total retail is only approx 10% so OK - fair game - and these guys here will believe anything - so millions off them will be no problem

Hedge Funds - Central Banks - Other financial Institutions - all fair game and probably 20% plus of this 4 - 5 trillion dollars a day market - but more sophisticated and will be harder to intimidate and rip off and take their money

Maybe over 70% of the commercial side -( I don't really know -never read it anywhere) - have super computers to assist them making their trading decisions etc

What have we got - as a retail FX trader ? - yes our eyes and out brains and a few hundred/ thousand quid of computer to compete with big talent

Whats our weakness - The brain - its not used enough - gives us too many emotions and because money is involved - its not wired to keep taking a beating and being told by the rest of you - "you are useless at trading"

The brain thinks it smart - if a bona fida Professor of say maths says standard deviations of MA's work in trading - you should believe him - as he should know - after all he's supposed to be clever

Similar if the FT or Goldmans say the dollar will just get stronger - than your brain thinks - they should know - believe that info

So immediately you start with a BIAS

You have a strong opinion on direction - and of course - the 4 hr daily weekly charts all agree with you opinion - It's got to be a 95% certainty - surely ;-)

BUT

Have you heard of False Sentiment ? - have you ever been fooled or ripped off by a pickpocket?

Have you ever been mislead ?? - in every case there is a skill involved and also - gameplay takes place

Its happening 24 hrs a day in the FX market - It - the market - needs to mislead you and let your big weakness - ie your brain- chose the wrong direction as often as it can

It needs to make sure your brain is uncomfortable playing this game - it need to out psych you - just like Roy Keane would on the football pitch

It will remind you often - you are loser

It will act like when you were a kid in the playground - when you played "tick - your on" - and the other players keep swerving and sending you the wrong way - so you could not tick them

You will look at idiot - as your account dwindles - but according to EW theory or Gann - this should happen ........ but it did not ??

You read and study more - but its just a waste of time - your brain is more confused and then you think that's it - i am really p**d off I am giving up

That's because again - you are being mislead

SO - whats the answer ???

First part - read "Art of War" by Sun Tzu

Don't think the market is your friend and the commercial people and even the big players are wanting to help you as they are not bothered with small fry - ie Retail guys like you

Don't believe all the theories - yes they maybe - did work in Jessie's days - but nowadays with super computers - it know's everything you know - and more and so players decide on what works and what does not.

Supercomputers assist the larger player in the market to even make you brain slowly totally play up when you try and trade.

They can pause moves - longer than your brain can feel comfortable

They can then suddenly do a 50 pips move in 20 mins and just when you have confirmation to do a buy entry - they take it back the other way - 70 pips in 18 minutes

The only set up - is YOU - you are being set up to fail

But so many fail to see it.

So do you know the markets weaknesses ??

I do

You can as well if you do the study . But you are not going to find out in a few days or weeks - it might be months or longer


Once you know your enemies weaknesses - you then compete ( don't bother when you don't)

You have to catch the market out - just like the market catches out 70 -90% of retailers every day

OK

The next interesting part on gameplay and your brain and what to do over the weekend

Regards

F
 
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Sun Tzw? LOL......its Tzu - anyways, somebody's been watching me, obviously....Hmmmmmm -

“Thus we may know that there are five essentials for victory:
1 He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.
2 He will win who knows how to handle both superior and inferior forces.
3 He will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks.
4 He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared.
5 He will win who has military capacity and is not interfered with by the sovereign.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
 
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Thank you andrac - spotting one of the typo and spelling errors - good work - a man of detail ;-)

The devil is in the detail - as you know

Please tell me - I feel honoured - you have been a member for nearly 3 years - and I am the first thread you blog on ?

Now - you are bound to know what I am thinking - but welcome

Regards

F
 
Concentration is not only important in trading - it may be everything. (Me)
I may be in touch.......:smart:

Sun Tzu. Concentration is the placement of forces at a point and time which the enemy cannot resist.

To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.


Thank you andrac - spotting one of the typo and spelling errors - good work - a man of detail ;-)

The devil is in the detail - as you know

Please tell me - I feel honoured - you have been a member for nearly 3 years - and I am the first thread you blog on ?

Now - you are bound to know what I am thinking - but welcome

Regards

F
 
I have just been reading and excellent thread on this forum this morning -

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/170024-ta-pa-supp-res.html

Its under the Technical Analysis - and i have given it 5 star excellent rating - because its thought provoking and features good comments - even though I don't agree with them all

I am not going to comment on the thread - but would like to use the GBP USD pair which is used in the example - in my gameplay and tease zone part of my own method.

I will use a chart to explain more and to also support my thoughts on the game play that had been going on in the GU for many years

I am more interested in it on a intraday session bases - but you do have the same games being played out on the daily - weekly - monthly charts - they just take a lot longer to find ;-)

I will also use the GU pair for intraday - in fact it can be my total "game play and tease zones" example for now

Regards

F
 
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.
If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

“It is a military axiom not to advance uphill against the enemy, nor to oppose him when he comes downhill.”

- Sun Tzu
 
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“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.
If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

“It is a military axiom not to advance uphill against the enemy, nor to oppose him when he comes downhill.”

- Sun Tzu

Highlighted -

A brilliant example of our enemy (- the players and market makers) have a weakness in their strategy - ie this PR and marketing that the "trend is your friend"

What is a trend ?

The trend - ie any move over 3 pips - is your friend ...........

Until it bends



If the enemy knows more traders are in a trend - whether its one of 10 pips - 100 pips or even 1000 pips - there's money to be taken

What do they have to do to take it ??

Reverse the trend - whilst also -( in a figure of speech) - kicking you in the head and scoring another psychological win even Roy Keane would be proud off;)

Bring on the BTTZ ( Bermuda Triangle Tease Zone) -

Is is then - "a downhill battle or an uphill battle" ??

The answer is always there - instead of how many of the enemy can be killed - its hows many can they wound - and take their money off them

Let them live to fight another month or year

They then will have more money again to take:)
 
I personally think - intermediate level retail traders suffer the most in the FX market gameplay

I can remember when I started on just a dollar a pip - there was no pressure.

I had started with a small account - simply to make sure I could improve it before then increasing my capital deposit. I did not know much about black swan events - timing - psychological pressure - etc etc

So I traded with ease - normal stuff - 30 -50 pip stops - after 50 -100 pip wins etc - fixed static stops and either 1 or 2 targets - set and forget etc etc - no pressure

I did gain - as many new traders do - and then over next 3 months upped the stakes I did not hit my targets always - but was at least flexible to take say 42 pips than wait for 50 pips - that never comes - and goes to minus 33 pips

I was without knowing it - doing exactly what the commercial markets wanted me to do

An ideal win - win situation would be to let me increase my small capital account by 30 - 50 even 100% over a few months - encouraging me to invest more and take bigger risks

The market does not want you to stick with just say $1 or $2k - and take it all off you in weeks or months

Ideally it wants to "tease" up to $5k - then $10k - and then get you thinking I need more capital - i can do easy 50% per annum

Then if you do invest $15k - or $25 k or more - thats when you will find out how cruel this game can be

Why rip off someone for say $2k - when by waiting over time you can make $5k or $10 ks off them whilst they still think they are in the game ??

By intermediary level - traders know even with a 60 -65% win ratio - you can still have 10 or more losses in a row

The brain has been "kicked" that many times by the market - its not comfortable - it will not perform well

But the trouble is you are hooked and its like a drug - because you remember those highs after a win

Unfortunately - not enough traders stay on the journey to get to a good advanced level

Most traders give up with out even making 500 live trades - never mind the magic 1000

Think say just 10 -20 trades a month so to reach 1000 trades - 4 -8 years

Now if they could make over 1000 trades - and even better 2000 trades - do you think they would be better

Well the answer is...............YES - cause they would

As the great golfer Gary Player once said -

"the more I practice - the luckier I get" :)

Well its the same in winning battles and the same as in trading
 
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Gameplay - and how you use it to your advantage

Most traders look upon playing the FX "war" game on a weekly or even monthly basis

They dont mind losing the battle on a few sessions or days - but as long as by the end of the week or month - their tally is in the black - then to them they are winning the "war" - still in the game and with an account in profit

As the market PR team quite rightly tell us retailers after keep following the "trend" - don't be "greedy - don't "overtrade" - don't lose you gains - play safe etc etc

So yet again - the market wins - you listen to the "war talk" and think - yes - that's the way to do it - that's what the guru's and tutors and books and all the dvd's say - so it must be right :)

Well in a sense - it is - especially if you have not got a true winning system and a method to win more battles.

My own FX trading "war" is every day

I will do as many "battles" as I have to - to win:)

If its only 3 - and its not even 1 or 2 hrs into my own daily "war zone" - I am not going to stop - I will carry on - but - adjust my strategy - ie I am a flexible game player

If after 5 trades - and i have lost everyone during the first 2 or 3 hrs of the day - then what ??

"So What" - its means I have to fight more battles -it might take another 6 trades to turn the day into profit - it might take an other 14 "battles" - ie more work - but i have not lost more than 7 "battles" in a row in a day in last 9000+ trades - so I have the "law of my win ratios" at least on my side.

One day - i just might lose 10 trades ( battles in a row) - it could happen - but not if I have the disciplines in my gameplan to get round this - ( which I do)

I can therefore lose many battles in a day - but in the end still win the "days" war - ie make a profit.

Trouble is - I cannot take this daily war on if I am limited to just say 4 hrs between - say 6 am UK time and 10 pm ie 16 hr window.

I need to know that during that 16 hr window - I am available for at least 8 -10 hrs - if need be. Many day i don't need 2 or 4 hrs - to win my war - but I cannot guarantee that - so I need a plan B and a plan C - just in case

My war record tells me that normally within 8 to 20 battles a day - I will have won the war and made my target .

4 battles might not be enough - but 30 or 50 battles in the day -no good - I will be weary and my concentration and focus will be lost - etc etc - and so that is no good for me

OK next some of the false play and tricks that happen most days in the FX markets

Regards

F
 
Quickness is the essence of war - If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a thousand battles......

Most traders look upon playing the FX "war" game on a weekly or even monthly basis

They dont mind losing the battle on a few sessions or days - but as long as by the end of the week or month - their tally is in the black - then to them they are winning the "war" - still in the game and with an account in profit

As the market PR team quite rightly tell us retailers after keep following the "trend" - don't be "greedy - don't "overtrade" - don't lose you gains - play safe etc etc

So yet again - the market wins - you listen to the "war talk" and think - yes - that's the way to do it - that's what the guru's and tutors and books and all the dvd's say - so it must be right :)

Well in a sense - it is - especially if you have not got a true winning system and a method to win more battles.

My own FX trading "war" is every day

I will do as many "battles" as I have to - to win:)

If its only 3 - and its not even 1 or 2 hrs into my own daily "war zone" - I am not going to stop - I will carry on - but - adjust my strategy - ie I am a flexible game player

If after 5 trades - and i have lost everyone during the first 2 or 3 hrs of the day - then what ??

"So What" - its means I have to fight more battles -it might take another 6 trades to turn the day into profit - it might take an other 14 "battles" - ie more work - but i have not lost more than 7 "battles" in a row in a day in last 9000+ trades - so I have the "law of my win ratios" at least on my side.

One day - i just might lose 10 trades ( battles in a row) - it could happen - but not if I have the disciplines in my gameplan to get round this - ( which I do)

I can therefore lose many battles in a day - but in the end still win the "days" war - ie make a profit.

Trouble is - I cannot take this daily war on if I am limited to just say 4 hrs between - say 6 am UK time and 10 pm ie 16 hr window.

I need to know that during that 16 hr window - I am available for at least 8 -10 hrs - if need be. Many day i don't need 2 or 4 hrs - to win my war - but I cannot guarantee that - so I need a plan B and a plan C - just in case

My war record tells me that normally within 8 to 20 battles a day - I will have won the war and made my target .

4 battles might not be enough - but 30 or 50 battles in the day -no good - I will be weary and my concentration and focus will be lost - etc etc - and so that is no good for me

OK next some of the false play and tricks that happen most days in the FX markets

Regards

F
 
Concentration is not only important in trading - it may be everything. (Me)
I may be in touch.......:smart:

Sun Tzu. Concentration is the placement of forces at a point and time which the enemy cannot resist.

To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.


"Zulus sir.......fausands of them"

unknown soldier talking to michael caine - ZULU :LOL:
 
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The market does not want you to stick with just say $1 or $2k - and take it all off you in weeks or months

Ideally it wants to "tease" up to $5k - then $10k - and then get you thinking I need more capital - i can do easy 50% per annum

Then if you do invest $15k - or $25 k or more - thats when you will find out how cruel this game can be

Why rip off someone for say $2k - when by waiting over time you can make $5k or $10 ks off them whilst they still think they are in the game ??

I don't agree with your comments here as they don't make any sense. The market does not know your account size or your experience level. The idea that it 'teases' you up to $5k is wrong. Your notion that the market waits until you have a larger account before taking it is nonsense.

The actually reality is that all things being equal you are competing against other traders for equity. A significant proportion of the market is algo and these algos generally have a positive expectancy or they dont last long. The net effect of the market is that it looks to liquidate or shake out traders. That's what the market does, that's its job. In short the market is a whore that is out to 7uck as many people as possible.

The concept you have presented is flawed and misleading.
 
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I agree with some of the last comment

The market is not bothered whether you start with $100 - $1 k or even $10k

But what ever you start with - you will then be on a moving escalator - that requires you to have a certain amount of luck - which of course you will have - you will be new and not so beaten up and battle scared

So that 10 - 50% gains you make it your "raw" newbies stage is the "tease" to say - ok if i can make that - then with more experience and double - treble + capital - think what I will make

The market as psychologically teased you to go farther - very much like a come on by a sexy girl flirting and giving you the eye etc etc - only to find out there are two thugs waiting outside her flat or wherever to take advantage of all your cash and credit cards

My concept might be flawed or misleading - until you re read it and see yes I am basically agreeing with your whore analogy

Once you have committed to more money and learning more etc etc - suddenly that $1k or even 3K gain you enjoyed - does not seem so easy to replicate

You have now had 5 or 10 or even 20+ losses in your early intermediary stage - and your brain as been kicked

The wins give you hope and so you carry on and then you get frustrated when you start to see over 6 more months that Elliots Wave - Ichimoku cloud - Fibs - Gann - Pitchforks etc etc - you name it - are not giving you the results you hoped and the pressure seems to be on you when your partner and mates start to ask how's it going ?

The market as twisted you around its little finger - its won again

You either have to go the whole way now - ie 100's and then thousands of trades to see if your method does work - and hope that within another year or two - you make it and see the light at the end of the tunnel - or give up

Unfortunately many give up - just when they might be as near to finally succeeding they have ever been

Only a few last say - 3 out of 10 - and then they either go on to succeed or just get fed up after losing more battles and the final war

The market wins and more of your mates who heard you made 30% in 2 months have now started thinking - if that chump can do it - i will be able to do better

The "churn" carries on and on - and on and every now and again the market catches a big timer - who as $30k of redundancy or $50k of inheritance to play with and guess - what the market teases him - gives them hope - and then .......... you know the rest

Back to the weaknesses in the market's battle plan now
 
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