Intraday Live short term trading calls from an Expert Retail Forex Trader

[Jon Salgerier]

GU

1 min LR chart with KT's

approx 50 pip drop after 3 09 pm and then 50 pip move up after 3 30pm onwards

Good evening.

I was finally able to squeeze in a couple hours of trading again today and while I made it to breakeven I left a lot of pips on the table.
One very obvious spot was this one in GU at 3 50 PM where I missed the move entirely and I wonder if you could explain what you factored in to the buy decision at that point?

I have attached my graph from that time period and my general problem was that I was expecting a move downwards and therefore looked for signs in that direction.

I had support at 1.5560 and resistance at 1.5580. I also had a falling trendline over the price (yellow on the chart) going from 3:12pm to 3:38pm. I did feel that this trendline was pretty weak but it seemed to hold.

So let us jump back to 3:39pm.
At this point I take the following into account in no particular order:
1) The two faster LRs are above price (in fact 8 out of 9 are, and all are falling) and short term trend is bearish
2) We have a low at 3:30 pm (mentioned by you in the thread as a possible 30 minute rule event)
3) The price seems to have bounced on my falling trendline (yellow)
4) We are at the end of a TW and on a KT.

So I decide that this is a good spot to go for a Scalp sell with the idea that price will go for a new low below 1.5560 and I go short at 3:39pm at 1.5567 (which is the low of the candle) with a 5 pip stop at 1.5572ish.
Unfortunately I am stopped out at 3.44pm when the price touches 1.5572.
Of course what I should have been doing was to realize that the assumption was false and throw everything out the window and start on a new sheet open for the possibility that we would instead be going up, but while licking my wounds the price started moving north and I felt that I wouldn't want to catch the rising(?) knife and hence missed the entire lift.

So the question is.. Was I completely off my tits going short and in that case what did I miss? or was it the rare exception that any of you guys could have slumped into?
And while on the subject. What was the key trigger at 3:50? Was it the crossing of the LRs or did you have more factors present then?

Oh and by the way, I am on GMT+2 so time on chart is one hour off.

Many thanks in advance!
Best regards
Jon

 

[Forexmospherian]

Good evening.

I was finally able to squeeze in a couple hours of trading again today and while I made it to breakeven I left a lot of pips on the table.
One very obvious spot was this one in GU at 3 50 PM where I missed the move entirely and I wonder if you could explain what you factored in to the buy decision at that point?

I have attached my graph from that time period and my general problem was that I was expecting a move downwards and therefore looked for signs in that direction.

I had support at 1.5560 and resistance at 1.5580. I also had a falling trendline over the price (yellow on the chart) going from 3:12pm to 3:38pm. I did feel that this trendline was pretty weak but it seemed to hold.

So let us jump back to 3:39pm.
At this point I take the following into account in no particular order:
1) The two faster LRs are above price (in fact 8 out of 9 are, and all are falling) and short term trend is bearish
2) We have a low at 3:30 pm (mentioned by you in the thread as a possible 30 minute rule event)
3) The price seems to have bounced on my falling trendline (yellow)
4) We are at the end of a TW and on a KT.

So I decide that this is a good spot to go for a Scalp sell with the idea that price will go for a new low below 1.5560 and I go short at 3:39pm at 1.5567 (which is the low of the candle) with a 5 pip stop at 1.5572ish.
Unfortunately I am stopped out at 3.44pm when the price touches 1.5572.
Of course what I should have been doing was to realize that the assumption was false and throw everything out the window and start on a new sheet open for the possibility that we would instead be going up, but while licking my wounds the price started moving north and I felt that I wouldn't want to catch the rising(?) knife and hence missed the entire lift.

So the question is.. Was I completely off my tits going short and in that case what did I miss? or was it the rare exception that any of you guys could have slumped into?
And while on the subject. What was the key trigger at 3:50? Was it the crossing of the LRs or did you have more factors present then?

Many thanks in advance!
Best regards
Jon

Hi Jon

OK

I will try and explain it

From after 3 09 pm and certainly after 3 15 and 3 21 pm - It was strong sell

Basically all LRs over -

When you have a situation like this - the move might last say 20 pips - or on a really busy day after say major news - 120 -150 + pips and last easily an hour or more etcetc

BUT

What stops a falling knife ? In the real world - maybe a concrete floor

In trading - strong supports and market makers who want to fry bears.

In this particular case - it was boths

5560 is a supports area - exactly 3 30pm is the second strongest KT - after exactly on the hour change and from after 3 31 pm to 3 39 pm - we saw no further falls - but instead more LRs go under price.

The most important LRs to go under price were the quicker ones as you would expect.

By 3 50 pm onwards - the whole set up had changed - - the 3 30 pm support was strong - no breach - and nearly 30 mins and the faster LRs saying buy and the longer term LRs just being being breached and turned

Instead of being a 15 -20 pip bounce - ( thats what I first thought ) before a fall again - it was a complete turn going on - and this also was happening on a few other pairs as well .

After 3 50 /51 pm - another key time - more Lrs saying buy than sell - and it moved up over 40 + pips

Many traders cannot understand that every new move starts at a interim low or high - and of course as a scalp first.

Once scalps last over 30 mins they have more strength - with either S or R's being firm.

From after 3 50 pm - at 4 00 pm and 4 09 pm - there was NO clues to scalp sell - in fact first clues at the R area above 5600 at 5615-20+ with the scalp sell starting after 4 21 pm - ie approx 30 mins after the scalp buy became a full turn

the longer LRs are normally stronger than the shorter quicker LRs - but we always have to give preference to the 3 quick ones - they are always the start of a new move

After 4 21pm they said sell - after 5 09 and 5 21pm they said buy again and after 6 00 pm they said sell and that sell basically stayed going to after 8 00 pm before it flattened out

In summary the more LRs over then favours sells - the more LRs under favours buy - but the quicker 3 Lrs and then the next 2 take preference on turns - you then end up with either 5 or 6 LR's just against the 3 longer LRs ie mismatch with the winners always coming from what the 3 fastest do next.

Hope that all make sense - it does to me - but if confused no problem please tell me and I will give you other examples that hopefully make it clearer


Regards


F

 

[Jon Salgerier]

Hi Jon

OK

I will try and explain it

From after 3 09 pm and certainly after 3 15 and 3 21 pm - It was strong sell

Basically all LRs over -

When you have a situation like this - the move might last say 20 pips - or on a really busy day after say major news - 120 -150 + pips and last easily an hour or more etcetc

BUT

What stops a falling knife ? In the real world - maybe a concrete floor

In trading - strong supports and market makers who want to fry bears.

In this particular case - it was boths

5560 is a supports area - exactly 3 30pm is the second strongest KT - after exactly on the hour change and from after 3 31 pm to 3 39 pm - we saw no further falls - but instead more LRs go under price.

The most important LRs to go under price were the quicker ones as you would expect.

By 3 50 pm onwards - the whole set up had changed - - the 3 30 pm support was strong - no breach - and nearly 30 mins and the faster LRs saying buy and the longer term LRs just being being breached and turned

Instead of being a 15 -20 pip bounce - ( thats what I first thought ) before a fall again - it was a complete turn going on - and this also was happening on a few other pairs as well .

After 3 50 /51 pm - another key time - more Lrs saying buy than sell - and it moved up over 40 + pips

Many traders cannot understand that every new move starts at a interim low or high - and of course as a scalp first.

Once scalps last over 30 mins they have more strength - with either S or R's being firm.

From after 3 50 pm - at 4 00 pm and 4 09 pm - there was NO clues to scalp sell - in fact first clues at the R area above 5600 at 5615-20+ with the scalp sell starting after 4 21 pm - ie approx 30 mins after the scalp buy became a full turn

the longer LRs are normally stronger than the shorter quicker LRs - but we always have to give preference to the 3 quick ones - they are always the start of a new move

After 4 21pm they said sell - after 5 09 and 5 21pm they said buy again and after 6 00 pm they said sell and that sell basically stayed going to after 8 00 pm before it flattened out

In summary the more LRs over then favours sells - the more LRs under favours buy - but the quicker 3 Lrs and then the next 2 take preference on turns - you then end up with either 5 or 6 LR's just against the 3 longer LRs ie mismatch with the winners always coming from what the 3 fastest do next.

Hope that all make sense - it does to me - but if confused no problem please tell me and I will give you other examples that hopefully make it clearer


Regards


F

Fantastic! Thank you for a very detailed explanation again. I think I will need some time to absorb this. I notice that my LR settings seem to be a bit off as at 3:39 you have a lot more LRs under the price than I. I will adjust them so that I at least have the same information as you for a start and take it from there to actually do the same things also

Again many thanks!
Good night
Jon

 

[Geofract]

Good evening.

I was finally able to squeeze in a couple hours of trading again today and while I made it to breakeven I left a lot of pips on the table.
One very obvious spot was this one in GU at 3 50 PM where I missed the move entirely and I wonder if you could explain what you factored in to the buy decision at that point?

I have attached my graph from that time period and my general problem was that I was expecting a move downwards and therefore looked for signs in that direction.

I had support at 1.5560 and resistance at 1.5580. I also had a falling trendline over the price (yellow on the chart) going from 3:12pm to 3:38pm. I did feel that this trendline was pretty weak but it seemed to hold.

So let us jump back to 3:39pm.
At this point I take the following into account in no particular order:
1) The two faster LRs are above price (in fact 8 out of 9 are, and all are falling) and short term trend is bearish
2) We have a low at 3:30 pm (mentioned by you in the thread as a possible 30 minute rule event)
3) The price seems to have bounced on my falling trendline (yellow)
4) We are at the end of a TW and on a KT.

So I decide that this is a good spot to go for a Scalp sell with the idea that price will go for a new low below 1.5560 and I go short at 3:39pm at 1.5567 (which is the low of the candle) with a 5 pip stop at 1.5572ish.
Unfortunately I am stopped out at 3.44pm when the price touches 1.5572.
Of course what I should have been doing was to realize that the assumption was false and throw everything out the window and start on a new sheet open for the possibility that we would instead be going up, but while licking my wounds the price started moving north and I felt that I wouldn't want to catch the rising(?) knife and hence missed the entire lift.

So the question is.. Was I completely off my tits going short and in that case what did I miss? or was it the rare exception that any of you guys could have slumped into?
And while on the subject. What was the key trigger at 3:50? Was it the crossing of the LRs or did you have more factors present then?

Oh and by the way, I am on GMT+2 so time on chart is one hour off.

Many thanks in advance!
Best regards
Jon

Hi Jon,

Just a suggestion, you may have also added a TL as per attached - see orange line - it's certainly not a given that if a TL breaks the trend will reverse, as I'm sure you're aware.

Prior to your entry, there are a couple of reactions going north - one was about 15 pips - small clue I guess. One of those moves made a new M1 high.

But the main problem is the concrete floor, as F put it, at 1.5565 ish - have a look on your chart, that level has flipped price repeatedly - quite clear on M30. basically you sold right into where the buyers where likely to be.

Hey ho, we all do that sometimes, me more than most

Hope that helps in addition to F's post.

G

 

[Forexmospherian]

Fantastic! Thank you for a very detailed explanation again. I think I will need some time to absorb this. I notice that my LR settings seem to be a bit off as at 3:39 you have a lot more LRs under the price than I. I will adjust them so that I at least have the same information as you for a start and take it from there to actually do the same things also

Again many thanks!
Good night
Jon

No problem Jon

its important you have your LR's set up correctly and its a shame that the same settings do not fit or go with all platforms - maybe that shows their accuracy etc

Will find some more examples tomorrow and just to keep my other fans happy will make some LIVE Calls in Advance on scalps and more than likely they will be at or within a minute of my normal 6 KT's per hr lining up with interim S & R levels

Being scalps they cannot be called 20 -30 mins in advance - but maybe 2 to 10 mins in advance at certain sectors of the session

Regards


F

 

[Forexmospherian]

Mr Pat Riley as put me on the ignore list on his new thread

And then wonders why I cannot comment on liking it

ROFL

 

[Geofract]

Mr Pat Riley as put me on the ignore list on his new thread

And then wonders why I cannot comment on liking it

ROFL

It's pure genius!

See you tomorrow for more fun

 

[Jon Salgerier]

Hi Jon,

Just a suggestion, you may have also added a TL as per attached - see orange line - it's certainly not a given that if a TL breaks the trend will reverse, as I'm sure you're aware.

Prior to your entry, there are a couple of reactions going north - one was about 15 pips - small clue I guess. One of those moves made a new M1 high.

But the main problem is the concrete floor, as F put it, at 1.5565 ish - have a look on your chart, that level has flipped price repeatedly - quite clear on M30. basically you sold right into where the buyers where likely to be.

Hey ho, we all do that sometimes, me more than most

Hope that helps in addition to F's post.

G

View attachment 195786

Hi G!

Thanks for the suggestions and yes I agree that the orange TL should have made me think twice but I usually avoid too steep lines as in my experience they are a lot more likely to break falsely. In this case and in retrospect it was indeed a true break and I will start painting them no matter the angle and see if it helps me.

The concrete floor I should have known for sure. I treated it as any prior support and did not at all consider that it would be more or less likely hold due to history. Very basic mistake and I can only say that it probably was the fact that I tried to melt down too much information into a decision. Oh and not to forget that I in my head expected to see the price fall more.
Thanks and good night!
Jon

 

[Pat Riley]

Mr Pat Riley as put me on the ignore list on his new thread

And then wonders why I cannot comment on liking it

ROFL

I put you on ignore after your 'like' with no comment.

And being on ignore does not prevent you entering a reason for the 'like'.

You'll do well not to try and BS me Mr. F. I'm well up on the game.

 

[morgan_edge]

keep my other fans happy will make some LIVE Calls in Advance on scalps

Nooooo If you can have live calls in advance, can you have live calls in hindsight??

You know I love you, but calls in advance where you manage (or even decide whether you took the trade or not!! ) some time later won't impress any of the fans, no matter how many you make. That's why 95% of the forum has failed to be impressed with you since your arival.
It's how Tar was able to give the impression of 1000 pips per day.
It's a style of 'calling a trade' that can't possibly lose if one chooses to give that impression.

This is impossible to do with real live calls (such as those in the Ftse thread or in Tar's new thread or BePositive in this thread)

You may notice I hardly ever post anymore, and it's because i've realised that twitter/stocktwits etc is 'where it's at' if you want to see real traders with a genuine edge and maybe learn a little without playing silly games.
I have an app that puts their trade on my screen the second they take it. I only 'follow' people who pass my test of them having to be both brilliant, and extremely timely with their calls.
I have found one or 2 superstar traders who are on another level to anyone I see posting here nowadays, whose calls I take along with my own and my account has been thanking them for a good number of months, now!

Trade2win used to have some great traders who could prove it in real time, but at the moment I genuinely struggle to think of any i'd like to trade for me.

You may be the trading God that Nick and a few others on this thread believe you to be, and you may be just a blogger who doesn't make money like the rest of the forum seem to believe.
My problem is, I just don't know!! Whereas with those before you who posted actual realtime calls, it was impossible to doubt.

I can't help but kind of like you and some aspects of your personality, but your failure to understand some of the points made numerous times by numerous posters (including at least 2 mods!) does frustrate me!

OK/ I'm done foe another few months.

I wish you good health, and if you actually are trading, I wish you success with it.

(F's usual White Knights needn't respond, but i'd be happy to hear from the man himself before I take another sabbatical)

 

[Forexmospherian]

I put you on ignore after your 'like' with no comment.

And being on ignore does not prevent you entering a reason for the 'like'.

You'll do well not to try and BS me Mr. F. I'm well up on the game.

Thank you for telling me something I did not know

The fact that I am not a multi nic - or actually get up to the "games" many here play I certainly dont know my way around the forum like many

Its just a pity they cannot trade as good

Be around tomorrow some live scalps in advance especially for my "other " fan club

Also while we are on about it - you mentioned in another thread you believe only 2% of all traders are consistently profitable - instead of normal 10 -20%

Well lets half it say- only 1%

That's still between 10000 and maybe 25000 traders

A lot more their then Premier Footy players - or some other professions

I tend to think you think its maybe about 50 traders - and none of them retail traders lol

Your entertaining - I like that - I am the real deal - you don't like that ;-)

Regards


F

 

[Pat Riley]

Also while we are on about it - you mentioned in another thread you believe only 2% of all traders are consistently profitable - instead of normal 10 -20%

Well lets half it say- only 1%

That's still between 10000 and maybe 25000 traders

And there you go, off again, with your 'lets say' and 'lets assume' - no empirical evidence, no solid data, no real knowledge. And the amazingly imprecise datum ranges -10-20%, 10,000 - 25,000. Out of thin air. Massive ranges.

AH, got it.

Plenty of room for maneuver. LOL

Sooner or later, somebody in a position of honesty and power on this site will take the decision to can you for your duplicity. It will be nothing to do with me.

Until then, enjoy the game you play at the newbies expense and the more experienced hands mirth.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Nooooo If you can have live calls in advance, can you have live calls in hindsight??

You know I love you, but calls in advance where you manage (or even decide whether you took the trade or not!! ) some time later won't impress any of the fans, no matter how many you make. That's why 95% of the forum has failed to be impressed with you since your arival.
It's how Tar was able to give the impression of 1000 pips per day.
It's a style of 'calling a trade' that can't possibly lose if one chooses to give that impression.

This is impossible to do with real live calls (such as those in the Ftse thread or in Tar's new thread or BePositive in this thread)

You may notice I hardly ever post anymore, and it's because i've realised that twitter/stocktwits etc is 'where it's at' if you want to see real traders with a genuine edge and maybe learn a little without playing silly games.
I have an app that puts their trade on my screen the second they take it. I only 'follow' people who pass my test of them having to be both brilliant, and extremely timely with their calls.
I have found one or 2 superstar traders who are on another level to anyone I see posting here nowadays, whose calls I take along with my own and my account has been thanking them for a good number of months, now!

Trade2win used to have some great traders who could prove it in real time, but at the moment I genuinely struggle to think of any i'd like to trade for me.

You may be the trading God that Nick and a few others on this thread believe you to be, and you may be just a blogger who doesn't make money like the rest of the forum seem to believe.
My problem is, I just don't know!! Whereas with those before you who posted actual realtime calls, it was impossible to doubt.

I can't help but kind of like you and some aspects of your personality, but your failure to understand some of the points made numerous times by numerous posters (including at least 2 mods!) does frustrate me!

OK/ I'm done foe another few months.

I wish you good health, and if you actually are trading, I wish you success with it.

(F's usual White Knights needn't respond, but i'd be happy to hear from the man himself before I take another sabbatical)

Hi Morgan_Edge

We all know it easy to make live calls in advance if you swing trade and go with 20 -50 pip stops - but then more than likely the results are low and so if a swinger with a 70% win ratio - still does not produce really high returns

I have just mentioned to Pat Riley that there could easily be over 10k traders who are consistently profitable.

I very much doubt at my age that i would be in the top 2k or even 5k retail FX traders trading on accounts under $100k.

That means there are thousands of traders out there better than me - and you have mentioned you found some - and I believe you

I also reckon Major Magnum who is maybe 20 yrs younger than me will be better than me within the next year - and that will be with less than 3 yrs using my method.

I will say - I do deliberately like to "wind up" the dissers and maybe the guys who dont use their eyes and brain together - but I have put my co@k on the block giving out the main 6 key times of every hour I look at scalping and even after doing that and explaining all my clues needed to take a scalp - I get dissers just wanting me to "spoon feed" the calls all in advance so they dont even have to look at the charts etc.

Calling live trades in advance is EASY

The trouble is traders want them 10 - 15 -30 mins in advance - and you cannot do that with scalps on 3 -5 pip stops and also on this particular thread with 30 second delays - you cannot always get the call out instantly like on live chat etc - and then they dont always come up on the screen unless members keep refreshing.

Be around the rest of the week - and then make judgement maybe

All the best

Regards

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

Seen the time - off to bed - up at 5 30 am ;-)

Sweet Dreams

 

[Pat Riley]

Seen the time - off to bed - up at 5 30 am ;-)

Sweet Dreams

So presumably that means you're really gettin up at 07:30 and tellin us what ya did at 05:30?

 

[Forexmospherian]

Wednesday 5th August 2015 - Pre Opens

Good Morning to all FX Intraday Traders

Middle of the first week of the new month

Today is going to be in a slightly different format - just for the benefit of my new "alternative" fan club

Its approx 6 26 am at the moment - I have already started with my scalping as normal - but instead of mentioning it I am just going to concentrate on after the Opens and then every hour ahead .

Before I do that i will post the LitS areas

All input welcome - as you all know

Have a great day

Regards

F

 

[NickBk]

Morning F,
I think better to just ignore them. They have nothing to add and certainly nothing new to say, yet for some reason keep coming back and love reading your input. None of them strike me as anything but self interested people and the claim to spare you from the trading world's newbies is rather false.

Anyway have a good day, I got a couple of great trades last night. EU/GU I am sure you can work out where.
Cheers

 

[Forexmospherian]

6 35 am

LitS area on some key FX pairs


EU - 0890 - 0910 ish

GU - 5565 - 5585 ish

EJ - 135 35 - 135 50 ish

UChf - 9785 - 9800 ish

Ucad - 3185 - 3200 ish

UJ - 124 30 - 124 45 ish

AU - 7380 - 7400 ish

 

[NickBk]

quick 4 points EU 06.31

 

[Forexmospherian]

Morning F,
I think better to just ignore them. They have nothing to add and certainly nothing new to say, yet for some reason keep coming back and love reading your input. None of them strike me as anything but self interested people and the claim to spare you from the trading world's newbies is rather false.

Anyway have a good day, I got a couple of great trades last night. EU/GU I am sure you can work out where.
Cheers

Morning Nick

Always like confronting any with big mouths - so you can guess the few I mean - simply because they are so far off being correct it needs pointing out - the rest are easy - ie they can just be politely ignored

Yesterday afternoon UK time started off slowly - but later on as you say - was excellent and WD on the EU and GU

I dont know whether you know that a thread has been started in your name as well - well out of order - but nothing surprises me on this site ;-)

Have a great day


Regards

F