I'm sitting on the 'Holy Grail' system - How can I fund this?

[Billy Gates]

With that said, in simple terms, why do you think Trading in the Zone is no longer relevant to todays market?

Not sure what you mean. Why would it not be relevant?

Method > psychology.

I agree entirely. everything you have said about psychology and discipline stems from this.

 

[darktone]

My beef with it is that it may convince a lot of retailers who never had an edge over buy and hold (and pretty much entirely lack the proper metrics to figure out if they do have any kind of long term edge) to trade that non existent edge. As a new trader, there is little point in becoming convinced it's YOU the trader who is failing when it's also extremely likely your methods are failing too. There's this absolute BS line going around that so many methods work, you just have to trade it, remain calm and all this. Well if that were true then any old dipsh1t could code a MACD cross with whatever PA they look for in EasyLanguage and remove their mind from the equation entirely. The book is not written with the modern, undercapitalised, over leveraged, often clueless and entirely solitary trader in mind.

The book reeks of an 80s institutional trader to me and were people here looking to trade what they'd talked about in the morning meeting or heard over squawk from a sister bank and needed help getting their head right after a few bad trades, then I can see how it might apply...

Method > psychology. You get your head right when you know what you're trading works and has done for at least two years because all trading doubt emanates from the fear that maybe you don't have an edge and maybe you are just another schmuck in the fish pond about to lose all your hard earned. This is a very healthy human fear designed to protect your livelihood and I can't imagine anything worse than overcoming it before you have earned the right and the cash to overcome it. That's why I find trading psychology books designed to shortcut these shortcomings to be dangerous.

I also find it interesting that a book like this based on anecdotal evidence is one of the most popular and lauded. Now if only there was a method book out there that could actually make you 50 grand a year with a small starting bankroll and gave empirical evidence for this... funny how that doesn't exist and the method books that do exist always add some opaque variance to the method to avoid backtesting proving how crap it is (i.e. adding an anecdotal element). Intereeesting.

Phew, lots of good points.
I dont agree with the "any old dipsh1t" could trade a working method idea, even if it were automated.
Lets say you were good enough to share your entire method/hardware setup with a noob, well, anyone for that matter. The idea being that they replicate what you do. At some point they/you will have to click the GO or STOP button. Lets say for you drawing down 5 can be expected, 10 is stop and reevaluate. You explain this to other trader and he agrees, at that point in time.
X time later at draw down 5 you are chilled, other trader smiles politely and agrees, but underneath he bubbling.
Xx time later at draw down 8, "Hmm" you say rubbing ur chin calmly "getting close to evaluation time", other trader is clearly disturbed.
Xxx time later out of draw down and up 20, you smile knowing you have managed yours to plan "time to get on T2W and slagov thems wot needs slaggin! :cheesy:", other trader is 😡, he 🤢 at 8 clearly seeing (through his eyes) that 10 is round the corner and hit stop.
Just a made up example. x 10 for manual execution.😛

"Method > psychology."
I get the gist but i dont think i agree with that either. If that were true, our very own resident 'expert' wouldnt have a problem +12 contracts :cheesy:. Demo returns would mirror(ish) actual returns. There would little if any need for shrinks in finance.
Fear: I think is an interesting one, I can certainly relate to the "am I just another mug punter?" 😆.
I think the 'fear' can come from many places and is different for all. For some, the notion of being wrong, or putting their ego at 'risk' is terrifying (I can think of one prime example on here, no names to protect the fkwit! :whistling).
The fear of losing money.
The fear of making money.
The fear of being wrong, or right for that matter.
The list is endless imo, and so personal to the individual. I know that after my recent thread, the fear of publicly airing my efforts was a scary enough place to alter my game plan enough to kill the bottom line, and with it, one of the main points i was trying to make.

Imo, striving to trade without fear is a sound proposition, then you can be in an emotionally stable place to realistically evaluate your methods.

Re the method books, i agree. Most of them are balls imo!

woa, far to much typing from me.
'Trading in the zone'. I love the book so far tbh, maybe enough to do a thread. No blinkers allowed! :cheesy:

 

[barjon]

........Fear: I think is an interesting one..........

Maybe fear decreases as skill increases - bit like when you were learning to drive

 

[BSD]

All good here, Zoe is 4 now.

I do see Rath occasionally, he seems to have his hands full with his 2 girls.

Crikey has it been 4 years since then...

Time is flying !

Say hi to Rath if you see him.

Random, it always befuddles my mind why people waste so much time generalising their own failures to achieve desired outcomes and then beyond that feeling a need to feel in good company with other failures by extrapolating that on the rest of the community.

😆

That's what 80% of boards are, guys with a negative atttitude explaining in great detail why something cannot be done.

No wonder life is a pyramid, while most go on and on about what can't be done, others just go out there, persevers with great tenacity through the inevitable adversity and do it.

If you can't do it fine, just don't spread a lot of negativity about nobody else being able to make it, that's just plain boring and a total waste of everybodys time.

I've given ya lots of examples where in this day and age people like our own twi here were making 25 - 35% per month, including colleagues of his at his prop firm, or our own arabianights, some guys at Futex, etc etc, hard facts conveniently ignored as they don't fit in your personal model of the trading world.

And no, what a Micahel Marcus did in the 80's ain't no different to what anyone else can achieve in this day and age, a chart from then or even 1928 or what-friggin-ever looks no different to a chart from today.

Think you can and you can, think you can't and you can't but just don't go generalising your failure unto others.

All this whining and general no-can-do attitude at the end of the day is what drives successful traders off of boards, be it at ET or here or wherever.

 

[Mr. Charts]

Crikey has it been 4 years since then...

Time is flying !

Say hi to Rath if you see him.

Random, it always befuddles my mind why people waste so much time generalising their own failures to achieve desired outcomes and then beyond that feeling a need to feel in good company with other failures by extrapolating that on the rest of the community.

😆

That's what 80% of boards are, guys with a negative atttitude explaining in great detail why something cannot be done.

No wonder life is a pyramid, while most go on and on about what can't be done, others just go out there, persevers with great tenacity through the inevitable adversity and do it.

If you can't do it fine, just don't spread a lot of negativity about nobody else being able to make it, that's just plain boring and a total waste of everybodys time.

I've given ya lots of examples where in this day and age people like our own twi here were making 25 - 35% per month, including colleagues of his at his prop firm, or our own arabianights, some guys at Futex, etc etc, hard facts conveniently ignored as they don't fit in your personal model of the trading world.

And no, what a Micahel Marcus did in the 80's ain't no different to what anyone else can achieve in this day and age, a chart from then or even 1928 or what-friggin-ever looks no different to a chart from today.

Think you can and you can, think you can't and you can't but just don't go generalising your failure unto others.

All this whining and general no-can-do attitude at the end of the day is what drives successful traders off of boards, be it at ET or here or wherever.[/QUOTE

Very well said !

 

[BSD]

Hi Richard, great to see you're still around and posting mate, hope life and the markets are treaing you well !!!

🙂

 

[Mr. Charts]

Hi Richard, great to see you're still around and posting mate, hope life and the markets are treaing you well !!!

🙂

Thanks 🙂
Yes, luckily life is sweet although anything can happen to anyone anytime !
Trading full time and posting privately elsewhere most days. I love the markets 🙂
Richard

 

[darktone]

Maybe fear decreases as skill increases - bit like when you were learning to drive

The opposite could also be argued Jon. My dad did at one time own a small driving school. He quit driving around the age 60ish iirc, due to fear of modern day driving.

Its no secret in trading that 'fear' can increase with experience. All fascinating stuff to me.

 

[darktone]

Think you can and you can, think you can't and you can't but just don't go generalising your failure unto others.

👍

What we believe is true, at least in our own little versions of the world. Makes good sense then to be really careful about what we believe.

 

[barjon]

...........Its no secret in trading that 'fear' can increase with experience. All fascinating stuff to me............

Maybe caution increases with age 😆 Quite happy to jump out of a tree at 15 but less inclined to try it at 40. Maybe why the trading floors are full of young guns.

 

[counter_violent]

Yep, those that can do just get on and do it. A few yrs ago, a dozen or so of us set up a working / trading group and one by one people dropped away to the point where there are just two of us left and we are fully committed. Good things are happening and the future is bright. Natural selection maybe, survival of the fittest, I dunno.

Here's a view from the broker side....essentially he is saying, the broker needs only to provide the service to make a profit.
The vast majority of the trader clients are just, well, crap at trading. 😆

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/182696-other-side-screen.html

 

[BSD]

The vast majority of the trader clients are just, well, crap at trading. 😆

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/182696-other-side-screen.html

😆😆😆

 

[Forexmospherian]

Maybe caution increases with age 😆 Quite happy to jump out of a tree at 15 but less inclined to try it at 40. Maybe why the trading floors are full of young guns.

Hi Barjon

So true - I am an "old one" now - 60 yrs old - but still think I am a young one until other veterans beat me in a 10K road run or half marathon.

I have been skiing for nearly 30 yrs - but not going this year as one of my sporting heros - Michael Schumacher - as made me look at things slightly differently

Although I am not a big "Off Piste" or mogul skier ( the knees ) I don't like wearing an helmet and have only done it probably 3 times in as many years.

Schumacher spent 20 yrs of his life living on the "edge" for probably 9 -10 months of the year. He took F1 to another level - ie holding his breath on qualifying laps to get into the "inner zone" - risking crashes etc - to find the limits on all tracks

Then at the age of 44 ( now 45) - worth about £200m plus - on holiday relaxing with his family - he falls and ends up in a coma - and still on life support after approx a month - and he even had an helmet on - can you believe it ?

So here's me thinking - stop being silly - cut down on the "adrenaline rushes" try and stay with low probability stuff - that won't maim or kill you 🙂

Although trading normally does not kill you - (or make you commit suicide like Jessie Livermore did) - it can give you major stress - simply because of that word - MONEY

So there is no way I will try 25 or 50 lots of my own money - I just don't want the palpitations and the stress - it's too risky - although saying that I would do it on Banks money without a flinch - would not care a toss if I had a losing trade for that lot😆

You do judge "risk" differently as you get older or more mature. You do not want to keep going out of your comfort zones - but in another sense - the more experienced and skilled you get at a sport or passion - you maybe do not realise all the risks you are up against

Schumacher had his "Black Swan" event - and I hope he lives to witness more - but not with his own life on the "edge"

In trading - I have so far not had over 7 bad losing consecutive trades in any session. That's in over 11 years.

Yes every week - I might have 3 or 4 losing trades in a row - but never never 7 or more as I experienced approx 4 yrs ago

So I am 95% sure I know my maximum downside in normal day to day trading

However - if in this next year I experienced say 12 or even 14 consecutive losing trades ( double) - then I don't know how I would handle my on going intraday trading- as suddenly - I would be out of my comfort zone - and my knees would start to wobble 😀

Expect the unexpected - you just never know 🙂

Regards

F

 

[random12345]

Random, it always befuddles my mind why people waste so much time generalising their own failures to achieve desired outcomes and then beyond that feeling a need to feel in good company with other failures by extrapolating that on the rest of the community.

😆

That's what 80% of boards are, guys with a negative atttitude explaining in great detail why something cannot be done.

No wonder life is a pyramid, while most go on and on about what can't be done, others just go out there, persevers with great tenacity through the inevitable adversity and do it.

If you can't do it fine, just don't spread a lot of negativity about nobody else being able to make it, that's just plain boring and a total waste of everybodys time.

I've given ya lots of examples where in this day and age people like our own twi here were making 25 - 35% per month, including colleagues of his at his prop firm, or our own arabianights, some guys at Futex, etc etc, hard facts conveniently ignored as they don't fit in your personal model of the trading world.

And no, what a Micahel Marcus did in the 80's ain't no different to what anyone else can achieve in this day and age, a chart from then or even 1928 or what-friggin-ever looks no different to a chart from today.

Think you can and you can, think you can't and you can't but just don't go generalising your failure unto others.

All this whining and general no-can-do attitude at the end of the day is what drives successful traders off of boards, be it at ET or here or wherever.

Sigh. Eurgh I've finally given in. I can't take another FXmo fact vs fiction saga and am calling time. I honestly don't know who this is, but I gather he's been around forever and has natural support from the remaining few on the boards.

You have entirely misread my posts and though I gather you're a great polemicist (that's sarcasm), I don't desire to debate it with you since your idea of constructive debate is to ignore the statements on the table regarding Wizards' history and modern era compounding and instead bleat on about what may be possible here and there replacing citation and fact with utter bollox and dreams respectively. Apparently simply naming someone from the boards is evidence that the Commodities Corporation OPM route the aforementioned big name Wizards took is weak when they should have been trading 25% a month on their own.

I don't understand where you got the idea that I was a trading failure from or that I'd ever claimed trading was impossible? Every recent post on here stresses that if people want success they need to work at it like a business, except instead I'm getting some half wit chat from your good self, not sure what I did to deserve this after the FXmo saga. I've said SO many damn times that I not only trade a high cap account of my own (I make up 2.5% of LMAX's take volume for fk sake and get a 3 yrd GBP comm rate and also have a make side account), but also am a general partner at a FNY LP, yet here I am, about to argue with Mr Undateable about what's possible in both institutional and non-institutional trading? And WHY? WHY am I doing this. I honestly do not know. It's amazing to me. In that we agree, I am wasting my time, except I wasn't imparting negativity as I saw it per your first paragraph.

BUT, funnily enough you and I both get our desired resolution as this shall be one of my final posts on T2W as I made something of a New Year's resolution based on a "what am I doing" moment in December - I wanted to see some posts through out of respect for Shakone, but I reset my password in December and have no idea what it is now so it's a matter of ease to make my much hoped for exit today. It seems you get your wish and my 'negativity' shall be removed, instead it shall be replaced with the great hallowed knowledge of thyself, a 5 figure trader, if that. All the young blood will come rushing back to the boards and it'll be great. And you shall all go on to personal greatness and founding the precursor to Goldman's mixed floor like Marcus did, because you're that good and it's all possible from a few hundred quid on a credit card. I now understand this Walter Mitty type view, it's actually quite enjoyable to live outside of reality.

FYI regarding your 'facts':

- Tar quite roundly put you down regarding the 25% claim re Arabian. Why not reply to that? And you're not talking about people trading scalable outrights are you? You gave me one other example that may or may not be true, great stuff.

- I love the line about the charts looking the same, because it's so obviously true and we've all read it before. Except err, you can't fill or kill your way up a news or agency move from the pit any more can you BSD? I mentioned that before.. why didn't you address this? These and numerous other defunct inefficiencies are mentioned constantly right through the Wizards series... by the very people who originally traded them. So you don't even have to believe me, simply... read what the people you cite as the old guard are saying themselves from Dalio on down... incredible.

- Futex are a small company who make minor money below the audit threshold, their accounts are public information and it is a matter of ease to derive their revenue and thus the revenue of their traders outside of their participation, even grossed up wholly at 90% of their take (which is very generous), it's less money than the exotics desk made at UFJ in 2 weeks, and the exotics desk had no liquidity to speak of. They have less money on their balance sheet and credit lines than I have in my sister's fkin Barclays treasury account. Good reference though. They're big big bangers. In Woking.

- Other props? Marex bought STA for 2.5 million and are winding down their pro trading operation year on year in favour of HNW and high vol brokerage. 2.5 million including the intellectual property! I've known post office branches worth more than that, without joking. Big game hunters your prop guys aren't they? Big scary money.

- Now FNY, that's a prop sir. That's a fkin prop. And I shall stick to tangible reality henceforth...

 

[random12345]

Yep, those that can do just get on and do it. A few yrs ago, a dozen or so of us set up a working / trading group and one by one people dropped away to the point where there are just two of us left and we are fully committed. Good things are happening and the future is bright. Natural selection maybe, survival of the fittest, I dunno.

Here's a view from the broker side....essentially he is saying, the broker needs only to provide the service to make a profit.
The vast majority of the trader clients are just, well, crap at trading. 😆

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/182696-other-side-screen.html

Haha, yep you're a real big dog on The Street C_V 😛. Anyway all the best to you in the future.

 

[counter_violent]

Haha, yep you're a real big dog on The Street C_V 😛. Anyway all the best to you in the future.

😕

Anyway, moving swiftly along, I've no interest in being a real big dog on the street, as you put it...but for sure, I will be in a place that suits me and armed with all the right tools and knowledge to take advantage.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Haha, yep you're a real big dog on The Street C_V 😛. Anyway all the best to you in the future.

HI Random

You may be missing on some points yourself after just reading your comments to BSD

I actually have liked 2 of your comments earlier on in this thread - ie I liked what you said and agree with you - no sarcasm - fact - I agree with you

Charts may look similar to 15 yrs ago or even with the 70's etc - but using my favourite expression - it's a totally different ball game to the Jessie and the early wizard days.

We have the internet - super computers and more importantly far more sophisticated ways of cheating ( not just HFT) than you did prior to the super highway etc etc.

The FX market is what 20 -50 whatever time larger nowadays - there's 200 + countries from all around the world playing the game along with more "unknowns" ( ie non regulated business etc) -its totally different and the game as moved on and become far more complex

When you are in "normal mode" - you actually do talk a lot of sense and although we differ on whether "retailers" can make money in the FX market - I thoroughly enjoy both yours and Shakone comments on so many trading topics

You can call me all the name under the sun - no problem - but I would always give you respect with your knowledge on the commercial trading world etc

So please what ever you do - do not disappear off this forum 🙂

Regards

F

 

[BSD]

Sigh random, all these completely irrelevant tangents that mean nothing in the face of the consistent success that many have had and keep having to this day...

Tar didn't talk with him, arabinaghts and I were chatting on another board, and he merely confirmed what many professional traders know, that what twi said below was entirely realistic:

Many people think if you make 20-30% a year that you are doing brilliantly well. Many here will make 50-100% per month. It is not a methodology you could apply to large amounts of capital such as fund trading but for individuals accounts it cannot be bettered. I know as I traded professionally for many years before I went out on my own.

twi is at a hedge fund now.

But just contact arabianights yourself, he's a member here.

Ditto Lawrie Inman, another former prop trader like twi and arabiananights, and also at a hedge fund now, namely at Paul Tudor Jones fund:

http://news.efinancialcareers.com/u...hires-super-star-trader-with-taste-for-poker/

You keep harping on about some alleged difference between the 80's and now, and I just keep saying that's nonsense.

Michael Marcus had his success trading upstairs off of charts that are no different then than they are now.

All there is in trading is trading trends or reversals to mean, all there ever has been, all there ever will be, principles based on support and resistance.

Peter L Brandt traded with Marcus and Seykota etc at Commodity Corp, both trend traders, and while he didn't daytrade and hence had overall lower monthly returns, albeit at the advantage of being able to compound, all he used and uses to this very day are age old simple charting techniques:

http://peterlbrandt.com/factor-trading-plan/
http://peterlbrandt.com/about/

Dan Zanger turned 10k into 42 million in two years trading trends and the same simple chart patterns used by Brandt:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Zanger

Paul Rotter made tens of millions every single year scalping the BUND:
http://www.trading-naked.com/paul_rotter.htm

Serge and Peter Milman started out as prop traders and have their own hedge fund now:
http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/azeez...ge-milman-manage-your-portfolios-successfully
http://nymag.com/news/intelligencer/51182/
Starting out in the late 90's when he was taking home hundreds of thousands per year already:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/1998/0406/6107114a.html

Tony Oz who made an audited 56% return in one month with very little risk:
http://www.amazon.com/The-Stock-Trader-Living-Trading/dp/0967943507

Takashi Kotegawa who turned 13k into 150 MILLION in 7 years, google the guy or go down to "finance" in the wikipedia link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hikikomori

Market Wizards are around in this day and age just as they've always been.

That doesn't take away from the fact that most will never make it or that anyone can emulate them when 90% of all people have no idea what they want let alone the discipline and determination and commitment to doing what needs to be done to get there.

But extrapolating from ones own limitations and making generalisations about what is or is not possible in the face of all evidence to the contrary, even from members on this very board, is really nothing but denial of reality to makes ones own shortcomings easier to handle, and nothing but typical behaviour of those who can't, and thus try to convince themselves and their fellow sufferers that there no need for despair as no one else can either.

😆

 

[wackypete2]

BUT, funnily enough you and I both get our desired resolution as this shall be one of my final posts on T2W as I made something of a New Year's resolution based on a "what am I doing" moment in December - I wanted to see some posts through out of respect for Shakone, but I reset my password in December and have no idea what it is now so it's a matter of ease to make my much hoped for exit today.

Your posts are always worth reading. You'll be missed. Consider sticking around and trying not to get into these cat fights.

Peter

 

[tar]

Guys we should differentiate between locals trading/Pit trading/market making unscaleable strategies and scaleable outright trading , you cant make 25%-50% monthly for ever that's why non of the guys mentioned here is a billionaire when infact if they really are making 25%-50% monthly then they should be billionaires by now .
Performance of unscaleable strategies -like buying at the bid and selling at the ask in STIRs - shouldn't be represented in percentage terms because its not scaleable , but rather performance should be represented in $ .
BTW re these so called wizards and legends i will take their stories with a pinch of salt and pepper .