Recap: following my birthday I had been reflecting on events of my life, how i'd spent a lot of time and made some big sacrifices to trade. All I had to show for it was some big red numbers looking back at me in my trading account and it all felt pretty hopeless. I had been bouncing between profit on my account to losing 20% in trades and then rebuilding only to do the same. I just couldn't get on the run I had back when trading was easier. So I gave myself a time limit of 2 months to rebuild or go do something else.
Objectives
- Only trade if there's a reason; I felt this would help with my patience aspect and would keep me out of the bad trades if I thought to myself "why am I trading?" rather than just trading because price hit point X.
- Keep leverage low; I reflected on my losses and saw that over-leveraging was a common denominator (along with trades not being so good) but I wanted to be able to make the best decision, rather than have the decision made for me because I overleveraged and risked losing a large %.
- Avoid Fridays; for some reason I just really don't like to trade a Friday. There's a few reasons, one of them being by the end of the week I just feel tired for it. Another being I just don't fancy losing a lot of money and wrecking a good week (I have done this in the past) and then have to hold positions into the weekend. The squaring off of positions leading to strange moves and just the general feeling of pressure that the market closes on friday and I can't stay in for too long amaong other reasons.
- 5% ROI/week; I didn't want to go too risky. Someone suggested I put 50% of my account on one trade and see if I make it so I can rebuild fast. But I didn't want to risk it on one trade. I felt 5%/week was an achievable target with my risk profile/leverage and I would compound the account so after 2 months with 5%/week i'd have made a significant dent on my losses.
I'll go on to the trading. The past 2 months have been highly turbulent in the markets and I have found them more challenging than I can remember them being lately. Sentiment flipping multiple times in a day, the relentless woes of the euro-zone and just as one thing is put to bed another decides to be brought out. It really felt like there was an agenda based on speculation against the euro.
July
The first few weeks of July were very steady for me. I was getting in some good trades and avoiding getting into big losses. I was careful to manage my position size and ensured that I didn't start taking positions which were uncomfortably big. I was taking moderate profits (30-40 pips/day) but on the week they were adding up. I averaged about 3-4%/week for the first few weeks.
During the first two weeks I felt this frustration inside me. I found myself taking trades and then getting out of them when I felt there was more left in it. Watching the trades became stressful and I was closing trades for the sole reason of not losing my profit. A solution to this was after taking a trade, I decided to turn off my trading screen with my charts and not look at the markets for about an hour. That way I wouldn't get stressed out by small movements and it'd prevent me from interfering with the trades. Admittedly, I still looked a little bit just to make sure of spikes but I wasn't looking at anywhere near the frequency as before.
I am sure a better trader than me would have had much more impressive results on the month of July than I had considering the number of good positions I got into. The rest of July was a slight improvement on the first two weeks of July. More importantly, I was feeling better about trading because I had consistently returned a profit on each week and felt it was a good foundation to work on. I finished up +19% on the month.
August
I had my first minor scare on week 1. I had previously been watching the market on Sunday night (I don't like to trade sunday nights or overnight in general) and had a good idea that I should be buying the dips. I woke up on monday and got to the computer and within 10 mins the first thing I did was buy - there was no real reason to be bullish. The trade didn't go well and my position wasn't large. Needless to say, I was confident it would rally and I bought some more and again as the market fell.
I could feel myself falling into the cycle and feeling that hopelessness again. I was looking at a 10% loss on account on the day. The market did bounce and I got out of the trade on Tuesday for a profit. I felt frustrated that i'd tied up my capital and wasted that time and taken those risks and vowed to not just trade like that again and think a bit more about why i'm taking the positions. Despite being down 10% or so on the week I finished up about 5% on the week.
Week 2 started off very similar to week 1. I had this new-found monday morning impatience where I wanted to start the week on a good note and get some money in the bank. Once again, I got in a trade where I didn't have much underlying logic for it. I averaged on the position and held (over the week 1 and week 2 averaged trades, I held much smaller positions than previous overleverages due to my awareness of where my losses came from. I still shouldn't have taken the risk, but the risks weren't the same.)
Week 2 started off bad (I was looking at another 10%+ loss on the day) and I found myself watching the market like a hawk. A computer was pretty much always beside me except when I went to the toilet or had a shower. I was up till 4am and beyond some nights and sleeping till economic announcements at 6.30/7am then trying to sleep for 30 mins between announcements in the morning. Over 2 days I probably managed 6 hours sleep. I started to feel myself getting ill again and decided that maybe taking a loss was inevitable so I could just move on to the next trade. I had been tied up in this trade for 3 days when on thursday I saw my trade slip into profit. At this point, I reasoned that I had spent 3 days in the trade and now that it was turning good I may as well make it worth my while and hold. The trade went bad again and i'd had enough. I decided to take my first loss and finished down just over 3% on the week. It felt like a small victory considering the damage I faced.
Over the period of August I started to feel this recklessness building inside me. I was happy with my consistency, but I was starting to think about just putting it all on one trade and trying to double an account. I knew my returns were good but I still wanted more. I had been trading smaller than I should have been as I felt markets were pretty uncertain/volatile and didn't want to lean on leverage in case I decided to take another trade alongside an existing position.
Following the loss of Week 2, I came back on week 3 and made sure I didn't make a repeat of the previous 2 mondays. I had a pretty consistent week and ended up recouping my losses and making a bit. Week 3 was +4%.
Week 4 (this week) and i'm finished for the week. I normally don't bother with bank holidays, but I had a go. It was such a grind but I made a little bit scalping taking small profits and getting in and out of the market to make it worth my efforts. I looked at 1.45 on Monday night and considered selling but I don't like to do overnights, I really thought there was a good chance euro wouldn't go up much overnight and it'd drop. I woke up on Tuesday to see euro falling and all I could do was just sit and watch. I got in a few trades later in the afternoon on a risk on rally and made a bit but I wasn't planning on sticking around in the market with a long.
The rest of the week was fairly low profile as I was trading smaller and trying to not do anything too stupid so I wouldn't look like a moron who had been trading well for the 7 weeks or so and then busted it all in the last few days
I had a minor scare yesterday, nothing too bad (about -2% on the trade) but I got out of it on the risk on rally. So total for this week despite the bank holiday, my trading smaller and the markets grinding away was just under 4%.
I did include 1 day of September as it composed of my trading week but August was a +15% ROI month. (numbers for each week were rounded so it might work out a little differently but that's the ROI for the month)
Conclusion
After the last 2 months of my trading, i'd secretly hoped to have improved upon my objectives but in hindsight I can't complain with the results. I achieved what i'd set out, my account had vastly improved and more importantly I was getting consistency back in a highly tumultuous market. I feel that if I reign in the trading on a whim (which I managed apart from those 2 mondays) and manage my leverage there's no reason that I shouldn't be able to achieve these results on a consistent basis. There will obviously be drawdowns but if it's 3-5% in a week i'm comfortable with that.
Here's the tricky part though; towards the end of August I was feeling that maybe it's time for me to see what opportunities are available for a guy like me in the real world. I'm at this fork in the road (truth be told, I might be past it) where I have to decide if trading/something else I do is going to be the way I commit to in life or if I go look for a conventional 9-5. It's been 7 years since I made my first trade and by no means do I intend to stop in some shape or form. Just i'm now starting to question if I should take a break from the day trading and go do as my other peers have done for years before the boat well and truly sails off.
It may seem counter-intuitive to stop now after my efforts, but trading like this certainly won't be the glamorous life outsiders will think it to be and it's going to take me some time and hassle to get to where I want to be. Saying that, I haven't felt the trading malaise/boredom lately that I used to feel and building an account has been a satisfying experience. So now i'm a bit stumped for what i'm going to do on monday.