I want to believe that it is not random, but this argues against me

[GammaJammer]

i am generally pessimistic, cynical and untrusting about EVERYTHING.

Cool - that way sometimes you're pleasantly surprised.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

And the zero sum thing is also bollox. Popular myth that completely disregards the fact that there are umpteen reasons for a trade in the wholesale markets, not just speculation it its traditional sense.

Could winnings on vanilla trades defer and carousel around?

 

[GammaJammer]

I don't know what that question even means mate.

 

[Paul71]

I mean it's like saying all Germans are Nazis.

It's not like saying that, but you can think that if you want, that's your decision.

 

[poborsky]

YouTube - Always Look On The Bright Side of Life

 

[Technically Fundamental]

I don't know what that question even means mate.

forget it I just worked it out myself. Would work in a trending market unless parties held for x amount of time for price to come back.

 

[Paul71]

And the zero sum thing is also bollox. Popular myth that completely disregards the fact that there are umpteen reasons for a trade in the wholesale markets, not just speculation it its traditional sense.

I agree, but it's still boils down to liquidity in the market, wether you want your dough back or not.

 

[GammaJammer]

Fair enough - I think arguing it over and over is pointless, I just hate the triteness of saying 'it's all a zero sum game' because you could argue that about all sorts of things, but at the meaningful level, I think it demonstrably isn't.

Just my $0.02 thiugh. While I don't worry about people holding the contra view, I am pretty unshakeable in my view after 15 years though, on this particular point at least.

And as for the city traders assertion, well of course I think it's a gross generalisation, as I am one and I don't see that as being what I do at all. But there you go.

 

[Paul71]

:cheesy:Anyway, enough of all this mindless generalisation and the advocating of devils. I think GJ needs a visit to the local brass this weekend, somebody obviously needs to empty his sack. Very angry GJ, you've not been gambling have you?

 

[gooseman]

zero sum game argument simply doesn't hold water for me.

 

[GammaJammer]

:cheesy:Anyway, enough of all this mindless generalisation and the advocating of devils. I think GJ needs a visit to the local brass this weekend, somebody obviously needs to empty his sack. Very angry GJ, you've not been gambling have you?

Only when I order takeaway food......

 

[Masquerade]

Could winnings on vanilla trades defer and carousel around?

Sometimes yes and other times no.

 

[Hilarymannah]

If you're trading the forex,..it's definitely "not" random.

 

[trader_dante]

All very sketchy and nothing black and white, just hoping that a long term trend will keep on going, nothing more and certainly no ellusive "Market Key".

With all due respect, if you think this, you haven't a) studied it or b) understood it.

 

[trader_dante]

Take Livermore and his book, ROASO, he never mentions 'knowing' in an absolute fashion when refering to his trading.

Actually he says that he never failed to make money when he acted on a pivot point.

The only time he lost money was when he broke his rules.

I say that's about as absolute as you are going to get.

 

[pedro01]

And the zero sum thing is also bollox. Popular myth that completely disregards the fact that there are umpteen reasons for a trade in the wholesale markets, not just speculation it its traditional sense.

Agreed - not to mention the fact that the broker ALWAYS gets paid !

 

[Paul71]

With all due respect, if you think this, you haven't a) studied it or b) understood it.

I suppose i'll have to peruse through it again, over the Autumn period. That's in case old Jesse was being deliberately playful with wonderful red herring of a phrase..."Market Key". Tom, ROASO, is basically a book about being as bold as brass and luckier than than the luckiest devil on earth. Livermore was a one off type of guy, his balls were big and the 'market key' was nothing more than a white knuckle ride that took his life in the end. Read it again!

 

[Paul71]

I say that's about as absolute as you are going to get.

In the world of gambling Tom, it probably is.

 

[Martinghoul]

I am late to this thread...

There's a lot of research in academia on the subject of the original question. And I mean a LOT of research... People have been examining the viability of technical analysis for many many years (see Lo, for example). Furthermore, there's been a lot of research on various predictably behavioral aspects of the performance of financial assets (see Montier, Odean, etc). It's the latter arguments that actually provide a theoretical basis for why money can systematically be made in the mkt.

 

[GammaJammer]

Biggest single consistent edge in trading is same as in gambling interestingly. Be the house.