I want to believe that it is not random, but this argues against me

I think most can agree, that a 100% mechanical system can't be a winner over the long haul. Put in short, if a mechanical system could beat a random entry consistently all the time it would be the holy grail. Yet I see so many hyped systems on discussion boards praised to be very accurate some even greatly above 50% I think those are ridiculous. If someone could actually come up with a mechanical system with no discretion involved and prove that it really beats the random entry all the time I'd be in ave. Point of this post being, without discretion you can't survive the dynamic market. If you disagree please explain why.
 
tenbobtrader said:
notice ghouls gallery is full :)

what constitutes proof the markets are not random ?
Click to expand...

kateeus said:
I think most can agree, that a 100% mechanical system can't be a winner over the long haul. Put in short, if a mechanical system could beat a random entry consistently all the time it would be the holy grail. Yet I see so many hyped systems on discussion boards praised to be very accurate some even greatly above 50% I think those are ridiculous. If someone could actually come up with a mechanical system with no discretion involved and prove that it really beats the random entry all the time I'd be in ave. Point of this post being, without discretion you can't survive the dynamic market. If you disagree please explain why.
Click to expand...


being a fully discretional type trader with pretty low level math skills (no advanced concept ability .. at all :) please excuse ignorance of mechanical systems

"if a mechanical system could beat a random entry consistently all the time it would be the holy grail."

generally does one mechanical system just trade one market with a degree of consistency then start to fail ?

should it work in all markets ?

are they generally only good for prevailing market conditions so require switching off if conditions change ?

how many constants are mechanical system builders looking for ?

how many consistant pieces / fixed ref points does one need across all markets to say price / the market is not random ? ....... then build mechanical system from

sorry if a bit .........:confused::rolleyes:

just wondered



Andy
 
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GammaJammer said:
Actually if we're splitting hairs I'd say it's more likely it's synthetic euro rather than ecu, extrapolated back (whatever the proper term for that is) using the legacy conversion rates. But that's not so relevant. It was a dumbass point to make by whoever made it (Mr 10%?) as if you'd just taken a cable chart rather than euro it would have been totally moot.

As for randomness or otherwise, in ANY timeframe, I would ask you what you make of structural factors such as regula month end fixing trades, flows such as oil related trading by Norges Bank, CB reserve diversification trading in eurusd by the CBR, intervention by the Jap MoF or currently by the SNB and their partners in crime the BIS. All these things are known, predictable (to an extent), assymetric and decidedly, imho, NON random.

So I think the key here s timeframe. Because if you take a long enough term worldview they could justifiably be called noise. But try telling that to some numpty who has no clue about anything but basic TA and thinks it's safe to sell eurchf on some retarded moving average crossover strategy on a 5 nanosecond chart right before the BIS start hoovering up usd/chf, eur/chf, kitchensink/chf, pushing eurchf 300 points through his 10 point stop. Random spike? I think not.

GJ
Click to expand...

so if a mechanical system takes into account the above

ie: no need to no when what your on about takes place - no requirement to read news for release dates etc etc

stop target with proper R:R potential at entry

makes money consistently

the markets are not random and you have the holy grail ?

Andy
 
Take Livermore and his book, ROASO, he never mentions 'knowing' in an absolute fashion when refering to his trading. All that livermore did was to try and reverse or fight his natural emotions and instincts when he thought that the market was "acting in the right manner" (whatever that means). Mr Partridge, his best advice was, "it's a bull market you know". All very sketchy and nothing black and white, just hoping that a long term trend will keep on going, nothing more and certainly no ellusive "Market Key". When some people wake up to the fact that they are just gamblers, they may even start to trade a little better.
 
tenbobtrader said:
so if a mechanical system takes into account the above

ie: no need to no when what your on about takes place - no requirement to read news for release dates etc etc

stop target with proper R:R potential at entry

makes money consistently

the markets are not random and you have the holy grail ?

Andy
Click to expand...

Well explain to me how a mechanical system could realistically be expected to factor in stuff like the vaguaries of central banker rhetoric and political pressure, not to mention election results. Even before we get to intermarket structural factors (petrodollar recycling / real money rebalancing / asset allocation regimens etc etc) and I'll certainly be all ears. But smarter people than you and I are CONSTANTLY trying to model this stuff. Thus it really is the holy grail, and in the short term about as accessible.....

Non random does not equate to easily predictable remember.

GJ
 
Imho it is naive to assume that it is possible to have a mechanical system that can take every major event in to factor. I remember one day this summer watching eurusd in the morning and all of a sudden BIS made a major intraday intervention which ate all the eur gains for the day. You cant have a 100% mechanical system that takes these into account, heh at least if you are a retail trader :). The time and place these events take place are very difficult if not impossible to foresee.
 
he was a bit special Paul

the bit regards the quake if actual nd some of the guys discriptions of thought are ..........

gamblers

alcoholics

drug addicts

.....................

words that provoke strong images and feelings ....... emotion

good post Paul

later

Andy
 
GammaJammer said:
Well explain to me how a mechanical system could realistically be expected to factor in stuff like the vaguaries of central banker rhetoric and political pressure, not to mention election results. Even before we get to intermarket structural factors (petrodollar recycling / real money rebalancing / asset allocation regimens etc etc) and I'll certainly be all ears. But smarter people than you and I are CONSTANTLY trying to model this stuff. Thus it really is the holy grail, and in the short term about as accessible.....

Non random does not equate to easily predictable remember.

GJ
Click to expand...


GJ

"Non random does not equate to easily predictable remember"

large % of time ....... just more than 50 % makes it not random ?

predictable is not what I meant at all

Andy
 
All I meant was that the price is definitely not a random walk in the short term. Patterns can be discerned. Easily.
 
tenbobtrader said:
he was a bit special Paul

the bit regards the quake if actual nd some of the guys discriptions of thought are ..........

gamblers

alcoholics

drug addicts

.....................

words that provoke strong images and feelings ....... emotion

good post Paul

later

Andy
Click to expand...



There is a lot to be said about this post Andy.


A)Gamblers: Reckless fools chancing thier arm and losing lots in the process.


B)City Traders: Zero sum game players, somebody wins somebody loses.


The difference between A and B is just a phobia of certain types of words. There is no difference.
 
Paul71 said:
There is a lot to be said about this post Andy.


A)Gamblers: Reckless fools chancing thier arm and losing lots in the process.


B)City Traders: Zero sum game players, somebody wins somebody loses.


The difference between A and B is just a phobia of certain types of words. There is no difference.
Click to expand...

Total generalisation.
 
Look around this site, look how pessimistic, cynical and untrusting everyone is about every f*ckin aspect you can possibly think of, except for losing in trading. Why?
 
And the zero sum thing is also bollox. Popular myth that completely disregards the fact that there are umpteen reasons for a trade in the wholesale markets, not just speculation it its traditional sense.
 
Paul71 said:
Look around this site, look how pessimistic, cynical and untrusting everyone is about every f*ckin aspect you can possibly think of, except for losing in trading. Why?
Click to expand...

I prefer realist to cynic. Plus losing is the only thing you can be sure is going to happen if you don't get your sh1t together.
 
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