Here is a backtest of something similar.I have been messing about with the parameters and settings of one of my indicators called the ADS Oscillator. It was developed and invented by the trading platform I have been using for over 16 years. Advance Decline Sentiment (ADS) is an indicator based on the Advances-Declines and volume associated with advancing and declining stocks. It is used in technical analysis to evaluate market Breadth sentiment and predict future market trend. I have back tested the ADS Oscillator from the 7th May 2020. There were 150 trades altogether. 108 were winning trades and 42 were losing trades. That gives a win rate of 72%. This is quite a high win rate for a single indicator. It's difficult to find a single indicator that gives a higher win rate than this. I will be giving buy and sell signals based on this indicator so keep checking this thread every day. I will be giving signals at the end of the trading day on the close of the DOW.
Let’s make the following trading rules:
How has the strategy performed? Not particularly well:
- If the 2-day RSI of the advance-decline indicator goes below 15, then buy SPY at the close.
- When the 2-day RSI of the advance-decline indicator goes above 85, then sell SPY at the close.
The equity curve above is not particularly promising! The 229 trades have an average gain of 0.6%, but as you can see, the results are pretty inconsistent over the whole period. The profit factor is a low 1.55, way below our minimum threshold of 1.75.
We tried many strategy versions of the indicator, but we were not successful in making any good trading strategy.
Yeah good one TEAMTRADER. I presume you went "short"?150 easy pts!
TEAMTRADER
Of course - when you 'know' the direction then trading with your own indicators makes it easy.Yeah good one TEAMTRADER. I presume you went "short"?
Yes no problem TEAMTRADER. I can change the charts to the S&P 500 at the "push of a button". The DOW and S&P 500 seem to "move in tandem" though so the signals are almost identical as far as I can see. Might need to change the parameters and settings a bit to get the best results for the S&P 500.Batsonar - are you able to do the same signal for the S&P500? I have a pal who lives close to me who trades live each day and if you are able to do the same I'd appreciate it.
Thanks
TEAMTRADER