How To Think Correctly

[new_trader]

Perhaps only equaled for "incorrect thinking" in recent times by the foreign tourist, somewhere in the Hawksbury who picked up a 'lizard' to have a better look, only to find out it was a Death Adder. For those unfamiliar with this Australian reptile, bites have a 50% mortality rate without treatment with anti-venom. He ended up in a coma.

OK, I'll shut up now.

I would say this is more a case of insufficient knowledge. If the tourist had known the difference between a lizard and a snake he would never have picked it up.

 

[dcraig1]

I would say this is more a case of insufficient knowledge. If the tourist had known the difference between a lizard and a snake he would never have picked it up.

Most certainly - but you don't mess around with wild animals unless you are really not thinking. Some lizards would give you a nasty (though not life threatening) bite.

 

[new_trader]

Most certainly - but you don't mess around with wild animals unless you are really not thinking. Some lizards would give you a nasty (though not life threatening) bite.

You don't need to tell me. I was born in Sydney, Australia and lived there most of my life.

 

[andycan]

How many books are published along the lines of “'Become a Doctor of Physics by the end of this course' or “'You too can find a cure for cancer in three easy steps' ? Not many, I would venture to suggest.

of course you wont find those types of books like 'you too can cure cancer in three easy steps'
1 because if it could be done now one will tell you and if they did it would not be illustrated in a book per se
2 if they did give you the basics of chemistry/biology/physics which ever there is no real guarantee you will a/ find the cure and b/ make money of it


Yet there is a massive amount of “'you too can make money in the stockmarket' and most of them complete crap.

yes it is crap! but you have to know the crap to know the good just like you need to lose to win


I would suggest the main reason for there being so much published crap is that because the markets are completely random, each publication does have some merit, at least some of the time and so cannot be dismissed as crap quite as easily as could “'Become a Doctor of Physics by the end of this course' or “'You too can find a cure for cancer in three easy steps'.


random is just another way of saying 'who knows what the hell its going to do'
but those that know that the markets has structure wont writte books on it


As an example, take Elliot wave theory, of which there is much written. To say the market rises in 5 distinct ways and declines in 3 distinct waves for obscure reasons may well hold some truth. But trying to identify which wave a stock is currently on is extremely difficult. Even then, you still need to identify whether the wave is large or small of which the wave is part. What the theory has going for it is the mystical fibonacci numbers and how they naturally occur in nature. But to my mind all books on Elliot wave theory are total crap. Yet you will no doubt find successful traders that swear by Elliot wave and they will say that all books on candlesticks (to pick an example) are crap.

i totally agree with you elliot way in most cases is crap and the reference of 5 up and 3 down does hold true to a degree and at some stages it maybe right or completely wrong
but consider this elliot wave is flawed!! and those that genuinely know wave structure wont write books on it
so people like yourself will always believe its crap (no offence)
Fib the applications used by many are a shot in the dark at best but again those that do know how to use it wont write books on it
candlesticks is just trying to apply a commonality agian its interpretation


I suggest there is so much published crap out there because each and every system / style / strategy / technique will work and become plausible some of the time.

crap indeed and the best teacher is the market itself


The human mind is easily fooled by randomness

yes! its also a lack of understanding. mathematics has done away with many so called random events
and those that are still not understood will eventually be clarified as we evolve

how does this help this thread?
well if you think markets are random then your approach will always be different to someone who sees the market structured
so who is thinking correctly??
in this case it would have to be what the thought process actually achieves in the form of action

 

[SOCRATES]

" Knowing "........" Knowingness "........."Knoweth "

 

[CYOF]

There are some really obvious attributes that are inherent in all charts (they go up and down, they range, they trend, they revert, they gap, etc.), but if it's none of those then, predictably, let's go through the zodiac.

Aquarius - water. I said they look like a meandering river earlier, is it that?

Aries - ram. Can't think of one here. They go 'baah'.

Cancer - crab. They scuttle from side to side. Do you think the deep level of insight I'm exhibiting here is going to get me the answer? ;-)

Capricorn - forgotten what this one is.

Gemini - twins. Charts have mirror reflections in them? They have two sides to them, upside and downside? They're schizophrenic and can't decide what they want to do?

Leo - lion. They lie around not doing much, then have a burst of hunting activity?

Taurus - bull. Apart from the obvious bull and bear, can't think of one here.

Libra - the scales. They balance each other (inter-market correlations, divergences)?

Pisces - fish. They swim about eating each other. Am I wasting everyone's time here?

Sagittarius - forgotten what this one is.

Scorpio - scorpion. They sting.

Virgo - what is Virgo meant to be, a virgin? If so I can't think of anything except smut.

So, nothing has leapt out from the zodiac at me. I'll have a go at looking at these two charts and see again if I can spot the sore thumb.

A raindrop travelling down a window. Is that it? That would imply randomness in some frames of reference, and the need for a detailed study of friction, gravity, surface tension, impurities in some others.

A raindrop, NO, but I do remember a post that Socrates made in relation to a chart that looked something like a raindrop

Another hint:

When you read your last post, think of the number 8, for you have of course mentioned the clue, but not in the correct context.

You must admit, this is stimulating the mind, but do not worry, for I will indeed start a discussion on a very profitable daytrading strategy, but remember, it is always a personal preference, as Socrtaes rightly says, so not all will see value in it, the same way that I see no value in long term strategies, because they are of no interest to me.

You must have an interest in what you are doing - it is 95% of the battle.

Slainte,

 

[CYOF]

Fasinating garbage CYOF

Always remember PT, some people live off of garbage, literally!

 

[Profitaker]

Always remember PT, some people live off of garbage, literally!

Agreed, many of whom are posting on this thread

 

[CYOF]

How many books are published along the lines of “'Become a Doctor of Physics by the end of this course' or “'You too can find a cure for cancer in three easy steps' ? Not many, I would venture to suggest.

Yet there is a massive amount of “'you too can make money in the stockmarket' and most of them complete crap.

I would suggest the main reason for there being so much published crap is that because the markets are completely random, each publication does have some merit, at least some of the time and so cannot be dismissed as crap quite as easily as could “'Become a Doctor of Physics by the end of this course' or “'You too can find a cure for cancer in three easy steps'.

As an example, take Elliot wave theory, of which there is much written. To say the market rises in 5 distinct ways and declines in 3 distinct waves for obscure reasons may well hold some truth. But trying to identify which wave a stock is currently on is extremely difficult. Even then, you still need to identify whether the wave is large or small of which the wave is part. What the theory has going for it is the mystical fibonacci numbers and how they naturally occur in nature. But to my mind all books on Elliot wave theory are total crap. Yet you will no doubt find successful traders that swear by Elliot wave and they will say that all books on candlesticks (to pick an example) are crap.

I suggest there is so much published crap out there because each and every system / style / strategy / technique will work and become plausible some of the time.

The human mind is easily fooled by randomness.

Just in case it has been forgotten by some, and I can assure you it will never be forgotten by Me, their is only one thing that matters in relation to trading, and that is, your Expectancy figure.

Randomness, and all the other theories, are pure rubbish, the majority of which have been dreamt up by the so called professional teachers that I have spoken about in universities -and I have shown, by History, and by words from the mouth of one of them, that the majority, and the majority been 99.9999%, do not know how to teach correctly. By the simple fact that they do not know how to teach correctly, we can deduce, with great certainty, that they, themselves, have been thought incorrectly. And why the hell would you take anything seriously that you KNOW is coming form someone, whom you KNOW, has not been thought correctly.

Common sense I would say - but then again, we all know about common sense, don't we!

Now, some will not even know what Expectancy is, others will have a vague idea, or think they know what it is, but will not be sure, and then, you have the few, the very small few, who know exactly what it is, for several METHODS that they use - NOT JUST ONE METHOD, and will never tell what it is.

So, it really is very simple, but for reasons that I have stated, over and over again, the majority are not prepared to EVEN CONSIDER, let alone put some serious thought into finding out if what I say has merit

I will now follow up to that very good post by andycan.

Slainte,

 

[Profitaker]

yes! its also a lack of understanding. mathematics has done away with many so called random events
and those that are still not understood will eventually be clarified as we evolve

how does this help this thread?
well if you think markets are random then your approach will always be different to someone who sees the market structured
so who is thinking correctly??
in this case it would have to be what the thought process actually achieves in the form of action

Yes, I would agree with those points above, on the whole.

 

[SOCRATES]

A raindrop, NO, but I do remember a post that Socrates made in relation to a chart that looked something like a raindrop

Another hint:

When you read your last post, think of the number 8, for you have of course mentioned the clue, but not in the correct context.

You must admit, this is stimulating the mind, but do not worry, for I will indeed start a discussion on a very profitable daytrading strategy, but remember, it is always a personal preference, as Socrtaes rightly says, so not all will see value in it, the same way that I see no value in long term strategies, because they are of no interest to me.

You must have an interest in what you are doing - it is 95% of the battle.

Slainte,

All of it is obvious....all of it.......and they cannot complain that I do not tell them everything..

It is not just good enough to have an interest in what you are doing....you have to push this interest much further...you must convert it to a different kind of energy we shall call "focused inicisive interest"....because nothing else suffices.:cheesy:

May it please the few and serve to infuriate the many...:cheesy: ...nudge..

 

[zupcon]

Randomness, and all the other theories, are pure rubbish, the majority of which have been dreamt up by the so called professional teachers that I have spoken about in universities -and I have shown, by History, and by words from the mouth of one of them, that the majority, and the majority been 99.9999%, do not know how to teach correctly. By the simple fact that they do not know how to teach correctly, we can deduce, with great certainty, that they, themselves, have been thought incorrectly. And why the hell would you take anything seriously that you KNOW is coming form someone, whom you KNOW, has not been thought correctly.

Perhaps you could enlighten us all by telling us which appalling university you attended, and constantly refer to in your repeated comments regarding deficiencies in the educational system. Wherever you had the misfortune to be educated sounds nothing like any university that I ever attended or worked with over the years

From my own personal experience, university was one of the few places where I was truly encouraged to think.

I wont even comment on your ill founded belief that "all theories are pure rubbish"

regards
zup

 

[CYOF]

Simple answer
there is huge amount of money to be made on subjects referring to money!!

what about 'Became a Doctor of Physics by the end of this course' i wonder how many would fall for that
or 'You too can find a cure for cancer in three easy steps'
we all know thats highly unlikely
but how does this sound? 'you too can make money in the stockmarket' to the average joe its certainly interesting
i believe its becasue with the two example prior we have a point of reference, having to do physics,math or biology at school
but most are not exposed to trading and its quirks and what it involves and those that do economics tend to at least have an understanding of the mechanics of the stockmarket which tricks them into believing that because you understand a balance sheet you can make money trading

Why do so many people buy trading books and courses?

Simple – because they know no better!

Why do they know no better?

Simple – because they have been brainwashed into thinking the way they do!

Why do they think the way they do?

Simple – because they know no better!

It is vicious circle of ignorance and deceit – of which the only way out is – to question everything. The “rat race”, in its entire entirety!

Now, seen as you all now have the article about Petyr Demianovich Ouspensky, then you should read his thoughts on Einstein and relativity.

Extract: you all now have this article, so do, please read it, as it is, to say the least, very interesting indeed :idea:

“The life of man normally comprises an unvarying and fixed line as long as he remains unconscious and in inaction to the various possibilities inherent within the moment. However, for some, it is possible to choose an alternative. In this we encounter the common idea of "free will". It remains to be described how we can visualize the possibility of free will within our four dimensional model--a model which, so far, has been static and unchanging. A given existence comprises a line--a four dimensional form. Extending this form outward in the already discussed manner, we can conceive the body of an even higher five dimensional form. To make matters a bit more understandable, conceptually, let us imagine that this new line of existence, that is, the new choice in a man's life, comprises an entirely new line within the "surface" of our newly postulated five dimensional object. In the previous explanations, we have used as our geometric base a model derived from a point, a line, a plane surface, and, finally, a cube. But it may be more intuitive if, instead, we imagine the form of the fifth dimension as a line rotated upon it's axis instead of extended outward perpendicularly. Here, in place of a square surface, we imagine a disc. Each possible life path in man's existence forms a separate line on the disc. The surface of the disc represents the totality of various possibilities of human action, each possibility comprised of a number of potential life choices. Only a man in a fully conscious state can ever hope to be aware of the many possibilities inherent within each moment. For us, as we are, the existence of a five dimensional body remains, at best, only a vague thing, indeed.”


If the Universe is taken as a 5 dimensional object, and time is in fact like a rod, that is curved and joined at both ends, then how do we know that anything that has been written down is correct, or, more importantly, in the context of what we are talking about, is written in the best possible way – i.e. what has been written for us to learn will enable us to experience life to the fullest, without carrying all the unnecessary baggage that is absolutely of no real use to us?

Money, is just a by product of success – and real success – is achieved by harmonious experiences – that is to say, we will enjoy the best in life if we are in tune with what is required in order for us to do so.

There are Universal Laws that enable us to reach our fullest potential as human beings, and it is only because they are immutable, that they work.

It is why the UNIVERSE is not A CHAOS – and a simple example, which I think is again noted in the Ouspensky article (not sure?) is, that this is exactly the reason why Astronomers can predict the correct path of a celestial object, many thousands of years from now, similar to what has been done in the past.

It makes one really think about who knows, and who knew, anything, about anything.

So, the best approach to take, as starspacer and I keep saying, is to recognise that in THE TRUTH of things, we all really know nothing about anything.

Only when this is truly BELIEVED, then, and only then, does the possibility of “enlightenment” manifest itself.

And, then funny part is, if you actually stop and think for a moment, that all of this is entirely dependant on one little thing, and that just happens to be, ones ability to learn HOW TO THINK CORRECTLY!

When is going to sink in – for this is the real TRUTH – everything else is of minor consequence. Haanel has rightly summed it all up, but as many fail to link his writings to Historical Facts, Philosophy Teachings, Epistemology and Metaphysics, then they will never see the “sore thumb” sticking out, in anything they try to accomplish in life, not just in trading!

Slainte,

 

[Profitaker]

Randomness, and all the other theories, are pure rubbish, the majority of which have been dreamt up by the so called professional teachers that I have spoken about in universities....

I only wish you were right. I only wish there was a way of predicting future stock prices with any degree of accuracy.

Bearing in mind we all start with a 50/50 chance of making a good call (up or down) on any stock, it’s easy to convince oneself of predictability just as easily as it is to explain randomness. What I will say is that predictability is much more comfortable than randomness and is therefore a much easier sell – witness the number of publications from the prediction practitioners Vs the number from the random camp.

You can even witness it here, on this thread. Just look at the replies and responses to those professing to “know” the “secret” when those in the know drop little snippets here and there. I have to laugh, no offence.

But hey, why not make some prediction on where a stock / index / commodity price will be at the close on this Wednesday. Not asking for your methodology, just the prediction. How about you lot put up or shut up ? Who will accept the challenge ?

 

[SOCRATES]

Everything is decided in advance....everything is planned...but don't tell him...let him wallow in his beliefs.

 

[dbphoenix]

May it please the few and serve to infuriate the many...:cheesy: ...nudge..

It doesn't infuriate anybody, bertie. But it is awfully funny

 

[SOCRATES]

It doesn't infuriate anybody, bertie. But it is awfully funny

It is funny to you...because you view it from a point of view of ignorance and not a properly informed viewpoint...that's why..

 

[dbphoenix]

It is funny to you...because you view it from a point of view of ignorance and not a properly informed viewpoint...that's why..

Even funnier, bertie

 

[SOCRATES]

Even funnier, bertie

Yes ignorance is bliss...isn't it just ? ....perfect nirvana it is for you... ...and for us as well...

 

[CYOF]

Perhaps you could enlighten us all by telling us which appalling university you attended, and constantly refer to in your repeated comments regarding deficiencies in the educational system. Wherever you had the misfortune to be educated sounds nothing like any university that I ever attended or worked with over the years

From my own personal experience, university was one of the few places where I was truly encouraged to think.

I wont even comment on your ill founded belief that "all theories are pure rubbish"

regards
zup

I am boiling, ready to explode, but WAIT, WAIT, the real Socrates has just appeared to me, where he is informing me that he hitched a lift form Ouspensky, on a five dimensional EMF train, to tell me, to tell you, the following:

" I took Hemlock for a reason, and for one reason only, that reason been, that at some point in the future, some people, may somehow, see, that, all that I say is TRUE, not because I say so, but because it is THE TRUTH, and THE TRUTH can never be changed. We really KNOW NOTHING ABOUT ANYTHING"

Now, along the way, you will never guess who they saw hitching, it was Montaigne, and he gave Socrtaes a note to pass on to me for you as well, and it reads as follows:

" I have tried, God knows how much I have tried, but they are all blinded by their own ignorance and self desires. The true joy of life is in giving, giving with all your heart, and when one gives with all their heart, then, and only then, will Education be a reality"

And, as they headed off, you never guess what happened, YES, wait for it, Haanel stuck his head out the side window of the EMF train, which just happened to be hovering in the air, and said, with a BIG GRIN on his face:

"I TOLD YOU SO"

My, I must now lie down, for I feel a weakness coming on - ohhhhhhh - ahhhhhh - zzzzzzzzzz.