How To Think Correctly

[new_trader]

As I keep saying, I will speak what is on my mind, no matter what.

What I read from Socrates post is that:

Originally Posted by SOCRATES
Expectancy (proficient expectancy) is directly proportionate to Ability.

Your results - your Expectancy figure - will be in direct proportion to your ability as a trader. The greater your ability, the greater your expectancy will be. I see nothing wrong with this statement - are others reading it differently, and if so please explain, as this is how I read it?

All else is guesswork.

This is also correct in my view - if we do not know our Expectancy figure (or where exactly we are with our trading results), then we do not have a true reflection of our ability.

Anything else is guesswork - no?

Maybe I do think differently than anyone else, but this is how I think.

Would anyone else like to evaluate the statement, and we let Socrates reply?

I am not speaking on behalf of Socrates, but my guess he is talking about the TRADER and not THE SYSTEM as you are. As I have said, PRACTISE and EXPERIENCE improves a trader's ability but you continue talking about system expectancy.

 

[CYOF]

CYOF, I respectfully decline the invitation. I am nowhere experienced enough to be of benefit to anyone. Apart from that, I get the impression you want someone to hand you a profitable trading strategy on a silver platter. I hope you are not offended. Good luck to you.

No problem NT.

Firstly, I can assure you that I have no interest in any one else's strategy - and I mean that 100%. It is a pity you think that way, for in reality, unless your strategy is 100% mechanical, it will be of limited use to another trader, as Db pointed out in the Grey1 strategy. We all know how profitable Grey1 is, and his strategy is posted for free, so if I want to make a heap of money I will just go over and join the TT forum.

I am keen to know if anyone else thinks this way - in that I was looking for some strategy to be given to me - for I do not like generating that kind of impression about myself. And don't worry about offending me, I am Irish after all, and we are not easily offended :cheesy:

This is not about me - this about learning from each other -something that alot of people seem to have a major problem with -general statement NT, and no hard feelings what so ever.

Regards,

 

[SOCRATES]

Of course it does. All one has to do is massage the definitions, if not the data, if not the formula.

Db

What nonsense are you talking now ?

It has nothng to do with any definitions, it has to do with awareness and self governnace of the highest order and with a lot of very hard work to attain proficiency and expertise.

The data...what data ? Nonsense.

As for a formula ....there are no formulas that work, and this serves to thwart nearly everybody who persists in looking for one.

 

[henry766]

The statement "Expectancy (proficient expectancy) is directly proportionate to Ability" doesn't work on any level , even if talking about trading , the niave trader with optimised results will have high expectations and think he's the bees knees till he trades it , it might be fair to say results are proportionate to ability , but certainly not the expectations . But success and relationship to ability arn't exactly a revelation .

 

[CYOF]

I am not speaking on behalf of Socrates, but my guess he is talking about the TRADER and not THE SYSTEM as you are. As I have said, PRACTISE and EXPERIENCE improves a trader's ability but you continue talking about system expectancy.

Ok, let me think about this one.

Practice and experience will improve a traders ability -Yes, if the trader is working from a good foundation. It is no good practising all the time if you are not improving on the results. Likewise, experience is of limited value if the knowledge acquired is not the correct knowledge.

System Expectancy, will TELL you where you are as a trader. Because your results are all that matter, then it is your results that you should be focused on. By focusing on your results, you will acquire additional knowledge that you did not previously have. When you apply this new knowledge to your trading, you can then evaluate your results further. If you are making improvements, then you have had some positive experiences. When one has a positive experience, one tends to think differently that with negative experiences. The results can be such that further positive experiences will follow.

Some may call this Peak Performance.

Socrates, your view please?

I will have to read this post myself - as it just flew off my head

 

[CYOF]

To Clarify:

When I talk about Expectancy - it means one thing, and one thing only.

Expectancy = Your average return on every dollar you risk

It is based on simple stats from your trading results - and it will tell the amount you can EXPECT to make on average, with a similar sample trade set, for every dollar you risk on each trade that you take using the same strategy.

 

[new_trader]

To Clarify:

When I talk about Expectancy - it means one thing, and one thing only.

Expectancy = Your average return on every dollar you risk

It is based on simple stats from your trading results - and it will tell the amount you can EXPECT to make on average, with a similar sample trade set, for every dollar you risk on each trade that you take using the same strategy.

www.dictionary.com

Expect:
-to look forward to; regard as likely to happen; anticipate the occurrence or the coming of

Practise:
- to perform or do repeatedly in order to acquire skill or proficiency

Experience:

- the process or fact of personally observing, encountering, or undergoing something
- knowledge or practical wisdom gained from what one has observed, encountered, or undergone
- the totality of the cognitions given by perception; all that is perceived, understood, and remembered

Skill
- the ability, coming from one's knowledge, practice, aptitude, etc., to do something well

 

[darkwanderer]

How long does it take to get, 'expectancy'?

 

[henry766]

Expectancy And Results Are Not The Same Thing !!

 

[SOCRATES]

Expectancy And Results Are Not The Same Thing !!

NO.

 

[henry766]

That wasn't so hard was it socrates?

 

[darkwanderer]

I see, you need 'results', before you get 'expectancy'?

 

[henry766]

that depends on the person / trader , some expect allsorts!!

 

[darkwanderer]

that depends on the person / trader , some expect allsorts!!

Liquorice Allsorts?

 

[henry766]

sweet

 

[SOCRATES]

I see, you need 'results', before you get 'expectancy'?

Yes, that is correct. You need to have results before you can attain expectancy.

But the results can only be consistent results in order to properly qualify,and not erratic results.

Consistent results is the matrix on which expectancy that is reliable expectancy can be built.

All else is guesswork, do you now understand the linkage that exists between the two ?

 

[darkwanderer]

Yes, that is correct. You need to have results before you can attain expectancy.

But the results can only be consistent results in order to properly qualify,and not erratic results.

Consistent results is the matrix on which expectancy that is reliable expectancy can be built.

All else is guesswork, do you now understand the linkage that exists between the two ?

 

[henry766]

What you meant to say in the first place socrates is that "ones expectancy is in relation to ones results "!!

 

[henry766]

This isn't just semantics , "ability and expectation" very often with traders are almost inversely related , with new traders with little ability( while their new at least) having the highest expectations .

 

[SOCRATES]

What you meant to say in the first place socrates is that "ones expectancy is in relation to ones results "!!

You just don't get it do you ?

Do a bit of thinking ...go on.