FX Bandit
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Just don't say you weren't warned.
As for getting on with it, surely that is up to the thread starter.
How to make 100%
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Just don't say you weren't warned.
As for getting on with it, surely that is up to the thread starter.
I don't need to be warned... I don't think he's some kind of guru, I'm just interested in what he has to say.
If it turns out to be rubbish then we've not lost anything apart from some time reading through... If it turns out to be beneficial to even a few then we have lost an awful lot by bullying him off the forum.
FX Bandit
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I've got a nasty feeling that you don't need to worry about that. But I won't post here again.
meanreversion
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V nice. What kind of d/down?
LiamH - 4x is making it up as he goes along. He's good at doing that. But that isn't the game. It might end well or he might crash and burn - and not tell us. I haven't got the time to stick around to find out.
meanreversion
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4x has a severe case of verbal diaorrhoea (is that spelt correctly?)
FX Bandit
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Hey Mean, we've got to do something about your technology skills.
Go here (make sure you're using Firefox as your browser):
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/language-tools/
Follow the instructions, it does it for you.
You could be right, you could be wrong. I'd like to find out...
B
Black Swan
where's the photo of Tucker getting slipped a wet limp Bonio gone then? 
FX Bandit
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where's the photo of Tucker getting slipped a wet limp Bonio gone then?
Hear hear! And my post proclaiming that post to be the best on this thread?
4xpipcounter
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Re: Nugget 5--Understanding a trend III
Nunrgguy,this was oversight on my part. I missed this post in answering your question, so I apologize.
First, let's get off the client kick. I don't have any. I don't desire any. The people I work with behind the scenes are all for free.
My proprietary S&R's have notihng to do with zig zags, trendlines, or whatever else you want to think of. They are all ensconced deeply in the mathematics of a trend's range within any given time period. Just like I have posted in my other thread, no one gets my formula, but I am happy to post the S&R's for a particualr pair if you want them. The monthlies for Oct are piping hot and ready to go if you want or need them for a particular pair. Plot them on your demo chart, and then watch the action. One of my trades from last week was the GBP/USD long that I closed for + 100 pips (10%). The WR! was 1.5819, which is what the TP was set for, and price action only went 4 points beyond it.
Nunrgguy,this was oversight on my part. I missed this post in answering your question, so I apologize.
First, let's get off the client kick. I don't have any. I don't desire any. The people I work with behind the scenes are all for free.
My proprietary S&R's have notihng to do with zig zags, trendlines, or whatever else you want to think of. They are all ensconced deeply in the mathematics of a trend's range within any given time period. Just like I have posted in my other thread, no one gets my formula, but I am happy to post the S&R's for a particualr pair if you want them. The monthlies for Oct are piping hot and ready to go if you want or need them for a particular pair. Plot them on your demo chart, and then watch the action. One of my trades from last week was the GBP/USD long that I closed for + 100 pips (10%). The WR! was 1.5819, which is what the TP was set for, and price action only went 4 points beyond it.
4xpipcounter
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Nugget 7
Part of what I believe makes for a successful trading strategy is to have a wherewithal that will allow to determine when a trend is going to reverse or if there is a correction within the trend. Also, so you want to trade the correction, or just wait for it to complete. I mentioned in the previous nugget the way trends can be viewed. After the 5-min chart trends just like the monthly does. The trader needs to be cognizant of the activity on each time frame. Here's a trade I just entered on the EUR/AUD. If you look at my methodology which is the black chart. Notice where the price struggled. That is the 50% mark of the YS1—YS2. (My proprietary levels are available to any who ask.). Also notice how the cloud is descending, and is looking very bearish into the future. The forecast? That's why I like the ichimoku cloud. Price is headed south in the very near future.
For a minute, forget my methodology. After all, this is a thread of ideas. My methodology is not right for all. I just want people to glean what is best for them. Bottom line is, it does not matter what you use to determine the reversal. Just determine it! Afterward, ride it out. It doesn't take too many of these kinds of trades for you to double your account, and that will depend on just how much you use to margin.
Okay, I digressed. The highlight of this nugget goes outside my methodology. An excellent tool that can be used to determine reversals within any time period is the standard deviation. This indicator is actually called the Hurst Bands historic. Not only do they contain the standard deviation (I'll explain more.), but the Hurst (Named after JM Hurst) cyclical decomposition. It shows the path of direction and current momentum of the trend. In other words, look at the daily. Would it not appear the uptrend paddling upstream? What do you think would happen on a reversal? It is going to be a lot easier for this trend to move south with the current, than while it was moving north against the current.
Here's the amazing thing about standard deviations. Take a data set, then apply the SD formula (Which I will give later in this post.). It is a statistical fact that the rule is that 68% of all the data will fall within sigma 1 +/- of the mean. The mean or the median (Mean is the average. Median is the middle number) is the middle line, the thick blue, in this case. 95% of the data falls within the 2. 98% within the 3. And there is still a total of 2% that will find its way beyond the 3. I hope this information is obvious how it adds up in making trading decisions.
It is implied there is a 98% chance of circa 1.4200 being containment. Where will it head once it reverses? The gravitational pull is always to the median. It gets hit 99% of the time once a 2 or 3 has been hit. The thing you must do in trading off the SD charts is to monitor the TF you placed the trade on. This is a daily, at the beginning of the business day, check the chart just to see how close ot the median it has gotten.
Needless to say, it is also best to trade in the direction of the momentous flow. If the chart is pointing south, then it's good to travel south (Better gas mileage that way.) The reason you need to check the charts at the beginning of a new candle is because the SD is dynamic. If the setting is set on 150 candles, then when the 1st one falls off, the 150th is added. This means a new set of data is figured into the equation.
Now for the equation. Apply this to any set of data you wish. Specifically, when you have a favorite market that has trended for a long time, take the previous 100 candles, apply the formula, and see if the numbers do not fall within the parameters given. When you see it has hit sigma 2 get ready for the action in reverse: The sum of the data values (I wish they had the Greek letter sigma on my keyboard.) minus the mean, and then square the result. Afterward divide by the (data values – 1). Once you are done with that, take the square root, and that is you sigma 1 value. The sigma 2 and 3 are equi-distance. A lot of work? Sure! But, we are not talking 5-10 pips per day.
Part of what I believe makes for a successful trading strategy is to have a wherewithal that will allow to determine when a trend is going to reverse or if there is a correction within the trend. Also, so you want to trade the correction, or just wait for it to complete. I mentioned in the previous nugget the way trends can be viewed. After the 5-min chart trends just like the monthly does. The trader needs to be cognizant of the activity on each time frame. Here's a trade I just entered on the EUR/AUD. If you look at my methodology which is the black chart. Notice where the price struggled. That is the 50% mark of the YS1—YS2. (My proprietary levels are available to any who ask.). Also notice how the cloud is descending, and is looking very bearish into the future. The forecast? That's why I like the ichimoku cloud. Price is headed south in the very near future.
For a minute, forget my methodology. After all, this is a thread of ideas. My methodology is not right for all. I just want people to glean what is best for them. Bottom line is, it does not matter what you use to determine the reversal. Just determine it! Afterward, ride it out. It doesn't take too many of these kinds of trades for you to double your account, and that will depend on just how much you use to margin.
Okay, I digressed. The highlight of this nugget goes outside my methodology. An excellent tool that can be used to determine reversals within any time period is the standard deviation. This indicator is actually called the Hurst Bands historic. Not only do they contain the standard deviation (I'll explain more.), but the Hurst (Named after JM Hurst) cyclical decomposition. It shows the path of direction and current momentum of the trend. In other words, look at the daily. Would it not appear the uptrend paddling upstream? What do you think would happen on a reversal? It is going to be a lot easier for this trend to move south with the current, than while it was moving north against the current.
Here's the amazing thing about standard deviations. Take a data set, then apply the SD formula (Which I will give later in this post.). It is a statistical fact that the rule is that 68% of all the data will fall within sigma 1 +/- of the mean. The mean or the median (Mean is the average. Median is the middle number) is the middle line, the thick blue, in this case. 95% of the data falls within the 2. 98% within the 3. And there is still a total of 2% that will find its way beyond the 3. I hope this information is obvious how it adds up in making trading decisions.
It is implied there is a 98% chance of circa 1.4200 being containment. Where will it head once it reverses? The gravitational pull is always to the median. It gets hit 99% of the time once a 2 or 3 has been hit. The thing you must do in trading off the SD charts is to monitor the TF you placed the trade on. This is a daily, at the beginning of the business day, check the chart just to see how close ot the median it has gotten.
Needless to say, it is also best to trade in the direction of the momentous flow. If the chart is pointing south, then it's good to travel south (Better gas mileage that way.) The reason you need to check the charts at the beginning of a new candle is because the SD is dynamic. If the setting is set on 150 candles, then when the 1st one falls off, the 150th is added. This means a new set of data is figured into the equation.
Now for the equation. Apply this to any set of data you wish. Specifically, when you have a favorite market that has trended for a long time, take the previous 100 candles, apply the formula, and see if the numbers do not fall within the parameters given. When you see it has hit sigma 2 get ready for the action in reverse: The sum of the data values (I wish they had the Greek letter sigma on my keyboard.) minus the mean, and then square the result. Afterward divide by the (data values – 1). Once you are done with that, take the square root, and that is you sigma 1 value. The sigma 2 and 3 are equi-distance. A lot of work? Sure! But, we are not talking 5-10 pips per day.
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4xpipcounter
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In order to get you caught up with the nuggets, so to posts # 18,32, 33, 91, 92, 97. It is also important to bring everyone's attention to post # 160. That was Forker's comments on the fact I promised nuggets but delivered none (not verbatum). This will help the new ones and others with an open mind who they need to avoid when it comes to their comments in this thread.
BTW, comments and questions are always welcomed. I will be no hurry to post a subsequent nugget. (Even though I still might. I reserve the right to live up to my metaphor as a drunken butterfly--I float. You don't know where I am going to land.)
I got to tell you another grandson story ( I got 10 grandsons and 4 granddaughters.). The 3rd grader was over here. He knows Friday is my big evening to prepare for the next week's activities. He loves coming over and watching the charts with me. He wants to be a trader some day, so he can have a dog that looks like Tucker on his lap, while his wife brings him ice tea and fantastic meals all day (I'm beginning to think he is over here too much.). I put 4 charts up with the SD. I asked him which chart has the most obvious future direction and why. He replies, "Ah grandpa, look at that one, it is going up, but it is going down soon. It's close to the top, but the stream is going down." The moral of the story. This might be Advanced Trading 101, but even a 3rd grader can figure it out. I also placed a short on his demo account.
I just has an idea. I might save all the information from that demo account, and then down the road, publish it. I think that will help in showing that trading is not quite as hard as it looks if you learn the secrets.
BTW, comments and questions are always welcomed. I will be no hurry to post a subsequent nugget. (Even though I still might. I reserve the right to live up to my metaphor as a drunken butterfly--I float. You don't know where I am going to land.)
I got to tell you another grandson story ( I got 10 grandsons and 4 granddaughters.). The 3rd grader was over here. He knows Friday is my big evening to prepare for the next week's activities. He loves coming over and watching the charts with me. He wants to be a trader some day, so he can have a dog that looks like Tucker on his lap, while his wife brings him ice tea and fantastic meals all day (I'm beginning to think he is over here too much.). I put 4 charts up with the SD. I asked him which chart has the most obvious future direction and why. He replies, "Ah grandpa, look at that one, it is going up, but it is going down soon. It's close to the top, but the stream is going down." The moral of the story. This might be Advanced Trading 101, but even a 3rd grader can figure it out. I also placed a short on his demo account.
I just has an idea. I might save all the information from that demo account, and then down the road, publish it. I think that will help in showing that trading is not quite as hard as it looks if you learn the secrets.
4xpipcounter
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4xpipcounter
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Shakone, my trades and forecasts are in my other thread. I will let you know what the precentage of gains are as we go. That should be easy to figure, by now. Just take the pips gained, and then move the decimal to the left one, and you get the percentage on that one trade. There are the interest rates and spreads to deal with. Also if I held a trade for al ong time, those gains would be less because of the gains from other trades during that period.
BTW my margining will be adjusted as of Oct 18th, because of the new leverage rule. I'm thinking of doing it immediately to start getting used to it.
BTW my margining will be adjusted as of Oct 18th, because of the new leverage rule. I'm thinking of doing it immediately to start getting used to it.
meanreversion
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Re: Nugget 7
Trading does become much easier if one has the ability to see into the future, I will agree with you wholeheartedly on that.
Trading does become much easier if one has the ability to see into the future, I will agree with you wholeheartedly on that.
Thanks for answering my post. The reason I commented was because I saw names of posters who I follow, otherwise, as I mentioned before, the subject is not my thing and I don't come here much.
I set my capital employed in trading every six months. If, in January, It started with $1000, then 28% at the end of that period would be $1280. Is that what your grandson is calculating? Because there are many ways, as politicians well know, of making the accounts look good wth percentages and the guys asking questions on here know that very well.
There are ways of writing threads. You could start a journal, where you would have some control over posters' content or you could start a private members thread. You need a certain number of posters for that and they would need your permission to become members, but I would imagine that you have enough by now
In any case, get in touch with a monitor for more information. The type of thread that this has turned into is to no-one's advantage.
barjon
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4pip
If you want, at some stage, I can copy the "nugget" posts to a closed thread (ie: a thread where no other posts could be made) in order that people didn't have search through this thread to find them. I'd highlight in that thread that discussion in relation to the "nuggets" was taking place in this thread.
jon
B
Black Swan
Jon you could give the separate thread its own image, a golden nugget perhaps?
wirraltraders
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Jon
Could you have a word with BS. He's just posted a pic of me with my make up on caught with a long range telephoto lens and then he goes and posts another pic of himself (pic below) - the same one he keeps posting on other threads all over the place. I keep telling him that he is getting this forum mixed up with his Facebook page, but he just won't listen...bless.
He can try to dress it up however he likes, but now he is posting more of his "stuff".
[/QUOTE]
Could you have a word with BS. He's just posted a pic of me with my make up on caught with a long range telephoto lens and then he goes and posts another pic of himself (pic below) - the same one he keeps posting on other threads all over the place. I keep telling him that he is getting this forum mixed up with his Facebook page, but he just won't listen...bless.
He can try to dress it up however he likes, but now he is posting more of his "stuff".
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