Re: Nugget 5--Understanding a trend III
I perceive a lot of ignorance here and a misconception. I'm glad you brought up all the points.
First of all, anyone that is interested in that was interested in that part of the discussion concerning SD, do not adhere to anything this guy has to say along these lines, he does not know what he is talking about.
First there is no need to "blind" anyone. If I'm here to try and deceive anyone, it's time for me to get out of here. I have no need for that. I have a much better life than to be siiting around blinding people.
You mentioned I make thing more complicated than they really are. Ah um. the opposite is true. People make trading more complicated than it really is. The reason this thread will continue to have a swarm of its support and anatagonists is because people are not satisfied with their trading. They are either losing or just not satisfied with their gains. I will eventually prove that. I am opening a demo account for my grandson to prove the simplicity (Notice I did not say "easy) of trading. I got some plans. Stay tuned.
The object is, and this is just for you folks interested in getting your portion of the nuggets and gaining a tidbit or two along the way, If you don't understand something, then ask. Keep an open mind rather than jump to conclusions when you do not know what you are talking about.
The markets move with a mathematical flow. This is how I came up with my S&R's. (BTW, I already mentioned it, but the monthlies are hot and ready to go if you need them for any pair. The weeklies will be ready half way through Tokyo on Monday.)
The nuggets never take a punt. They just contain ideas to catch trends and reversals at their optimal times in order to maximize gains--like I do (lol). They also contain my personal biases, because it is what I use. If you got something you want me to use, then I'll evaluate it and then comment on it. At least you know I will be straightforward about it.
If you are referring to that fact all my trades have a DD of 10%, then you are wrong...again. I know you said you skimmed, so I understand. Maybe you didn't read the part of last week's trades that gained 216% on my account, and none of them came close to pulling back 10%. Maybe you didn't read my other thread where it shows a pattern of absolute consistency of personal gains. And, I know you didn't see my inbox of people wanting me to mentor them and trade for them and asking me for all kinds of advice.
This is why I'm really bad at running opinion polls, because, for the most part tghey're worthless. Here's your statement, "You are going to need lots and lots of trades before your system has any statistical merit." I've been 3 months on tihs site. I have 3 years shown on my blog, and 5 years of unalduterated success in trading, and 6 years experience total. There are people on this site who have followed me over here that can verify I used ot make over 100 trades per month. Merit!?!?! You got to bring youre facts to the table.
Now, let me tone down and be nice, because I need to address a possible misconception on your part. Let me apologize if I created the misconception. You "A" students here in Advanced Trading 101 pay close attention.
The 68% is the quantity of data that remains at the +/-sigma 1 levels. That means 32% is outside. When 95% of all the values are contained within the absolute values of the 2 towards the median, then 5% remains outside, etc ,etc. Go back to the post on the EUR/AUD chart. Notice the candle is just a tad under the +3 sigma. What does that mean to the trader. There is only a 2% chance of price action going beyond that. That is why I took the trade going short. See how simple that is?
Keep posting. I'm getting more inspired.
Ive only skimmed read most of this but it seems like you try to blind people with science/maths, making things more complicated than they actually are. The nuggets seem to be 'take a 10% punt on each trade as its ok as we are going with the flow', and something about the 'regression to the mean' thats used in statistics.
There is nothing amazing about standard deviations and is one of the basic components on any stats course. If I remember correctly, the 68% only works for the normal distribution and is not that amazing.
You are going to need lots and lots of trades before your system has any statistical
merit