How do you define a trend? And....

barjon said:
well to try and get back on topic :):) - the good, the bad and the downright ugly.
Click to expand...

Maybe you should try my definition Jon?

Down trend is a series of lower highs and lower lows (at least 2 of each)

BTW I haven't traded them that much lately, but if I did - I would have put stop above the last lower high (not lines, mas etc. - lines can be broken without trend changing)
 
Mike Kshemaraja said:
Viel

Thanks, very smooth. The 30 seconds tf? Nice. If you wish I may suggest some reading on that tf that you could find interesting, just let me know and I will pm you.
Click to expand...

That would be greatly appreciated, thanks!

Yes, I use the 30s tf to get a better view of the market's flow. I think it's much more salient than the 1m or anything lower.
 
VielGeld said:
That would be greatly appreciated, thanks!

Yes, I use the 30s tf to get a better view of the market's flow. I think it's much more salient than the 1m or anything lower.
Click to expand...

I feel the same.

Now try one week free trial from pro real time and set it to 70 tick chart (similar to 30 seconds tf, but it acts as a completely different animal when the market speeds up) and see how you feel about it. It also gets rid of the pipettes which is much better to define levels in my view. Just try it, it is free for a week.
Pm is coming.

I am off. I wish you many pips next week.
 
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Mike Kshemaraja said:
Jon

It is not topic, it is only trying to push the idea that volume, order flow and delta are essential in reading the market. BS, specially when it comes from a vendor.

The face of a vag1na will be a much better in reading the market in my view.

As everybody knows there a very big conflict of interests on this forum between vendors and spontaneous traders.

I really suggest that you add the ignore button to filter them out, if not we will be discouraging the spontaneous traders in creating this kind of thread that are here just for the sake of sharing ideas and without them the quality of the forum will drop dramatically and as a consequence the traffic and the readership. This is just common sense.

Mike
Click to expand...

Mike

Nothing on my post requires order flow or rather, nothing in my post requires my products. I merely outline the use of additional dimensions of data. Stuff that you do not have in the forex market but that is well used by futures traders.

Now - if you'd like to break down the method of assessing participation in my post and which parts you don't like, I'd be more than happy to discuss.

I haven't seen anything substantive from you on this topic and it was only your insults that got me to post in so much detail.

My impression is that your knowledge on the topic is thin. That is based on what you have written in this thread. Perhaps if you want to shoot the messenger, you should pull apart the actual message. You cannot explain what is wrong with my post or my methods. This you cannot do and so you resort to childishness.

DT
 
I have to be honest, I agree with DT.
A lot of what he said in this thread does translate to other
instruments and trade frequencies.
 
ZEN archer said:
Maybe you should try my definition Jon?

Down trend is a series of lower highs and lower lows (at least 2 of each)

BTW I haven't traded them that much lately, but if I did - I would have put stop above the last lower high (not lines, mas etc. - lines can be broken without trend changing)
Click to expand...

Well, I play potential trend continuation after 3+bar retracements (of higher highs and lows in a downtrend) and I wouldn't like to think that two of them represented a trend change - it'd blow what I do out of the water :LOL:

So far as stops are concerned, I have a stoploss zone when I'm about and can watch lower TF action if it gets there and I will often hedge rather than stop. Otherwise I just use a hard stop at swing high(low).
 
Late to the debate, but for what it is worth:

On any given t/f Price exists in 3 states only, either

1. In a classic OPA trend
2. In a general OPA trend
3. In a classic OPA range

(NB: OPA = overall price action-fractal swing hi/lo analysis. Simply put a classic opa trend exhibits HH's and HL's-uptrend and LL's and LH's - downtrend whereas a general opa trend is not as 'neat' as this but the general direction of price on any given t/f is up or down.)

Given this I operate under the following assumptions;

a. If price is in an opa trend – this trend will continue after each pullback.
b. The more t/f’s that an opa trend exists upon the likely stronger the trend is.
c. If price is in an opa range on any given t/f – this range will continue until it doesn’t (ie until there is a b/o of either of the range extremes. An opa range on one t/f can be a consolidation in an opa trend on a higher t/f.

These are the highest probability assumptions if you accept the 3 states of price. Accordingly it is important firstly to identify the state on your middle and longest t/f's and whether they are contra or co-existent to/with each other, and contra/with the states that exist on t/f’s above them. Then you need to act in accordance with the over-riding assumptions such that in an opa trend you will assume that every counter trend move is a pullback (of whatever depth/time) until PA on successively higher t/f’s begins to suggest otherwise (ie a new opposing opa trend on successively higher t/f’s or an opa range/consolidation,) and that you will not seek to trade ‘counter trend’ unless there are compelling reasons to do so. (Ie: known repeating high probability support/resistance confluences) and repeating hi-probability Reversal set-up combos that suggest that there exists a higher probability or not of at least a pullback in said opa trend.)

G/L
 
John - a few Q's

How late would you take a pullback in a trend? Would you take the 6th pullback for instance?

Have you ever measured the size of pullbacks?
 
barjon said:
Well, I play potential trend continuation after 3+bar retracements (of higher highs and lows in a downtrend) and I wouldn't like to think that two of them represented a trend change - it'd blow what I do out of the water :LOL:

So far as stops are concerned, I have a stoploss zone when I'm about and can watch lower TF action if it gets there and I will often hedge rather than stop. Otherwise I just use a hard stop at swing high(low).
Click to expand...

Your approach is more practical (y)- if I was to start trading trends I would most likely use pull back system (as you mentioned 3+ retracement)

I've tried 2 and 2 definition and trading the breaks of the lows/highs and gave up the idea after some time: I would often catch a small break with a massive pull back or the end of the fair weather friend(n)

What about the statistics for 3+ retracement?
 
DionysusToast said:
John - a few Q's

How late would you take a pullback in a trend? Would you take the 6th pullback for instance?

Have you ever measured the size of pullbacks?
Click to expand...

I take them whilst they come, toastie, but I can't recall getting to 6 unless there's some in the dim and distant!! Other things count too - the last WOS one, for example, was half position primarily because we hadn't made a new low before - so it would depend on circumstances.

Yes, I've measured the size of pullbacks over hundreds of trades. Nothing significant leaps out, although 50% and less has a better chance of making new low(high) which affects how I play the target zone.

For many years I played this very mechanically, but over the last ten years I've gradually built in more price action sophistication (sic :)) which I like to think has improved the bottom line. Might even look at the order book from time to time ;)

jon
 
Friday:

6-17-201212-50-44PM-3.png


The delta does help you with the chop & the breakout. Friday was really an uptrend since the Gap Close (pink line) but that probably didn't help many traders stay in till the close because of the volatility.

The obvious 'with trend' entry came quite late in the day.

- move up off yesterdays high (green line) for the third time & just about breaking out of the range - moving up 18 ticks, delta making a 20k up move (decent for the ES)

- retrace 10 ticks but only 14k volume - this is more to do with lack of buy side liquidity than an attempted sell off - hence the term 'liquidity vacuum

- next move up 112k and 19 ticks. Now totally out of the range and officially 'making a move'

- At this point, unless you get a lot of sellers piling in, expectation should be a similar pullback to the last one

- Last pullback was 10 ticks, this takes us back to the top of the trading range (and therefore an area of price rejection and an LVN)

This makes it a pretty high probability with trend trade.

What you are using here is:

- behaviour of the instrument (common intraday behaviour on the ES - pivots around prior days high/low/close)
- measures of participation - CD/Swing Volume
- prior resistance = current support
- volatility measure (measured moves)

Nothing is perfect and this is in no way mechanical. It's just a method of trying to get a read on a market.

The volume is interesting though. 65k to move 18 ticks up, then only 10k to move 10 ticks down. 112k to move 19 ticks up and only 15k to move 11 ticks down. This tips your hand to the fact that the down move is cause by a lack of bids. The reason there is a lack of bids:

- It takes time for bids to fill in behind an up move
- no-one is getting fills on their bids anyway, so it's a bit pointless putting them in on the way up.

This is as simple as I have been able to make trend spotting with some degree of reliability. My opinion is that HLs & HHs = uptrend is fairly unreliable to trade off.
 
Catching up wit the thread a bit after being away couple of days.... It got a unfolded in a very interesting one :)

A range + false breakout in one side, is my very favorite pattern to get involved from the very beginning in a "potential" trend the other way around...

Also when trend rest and consolidates a bit, and the previous Higher Low or Lower High gets broken but without follow through, it is more often than not a really good chance to join the potential trend continuation with a quite lower risk, as you are entering very near of where you would be wrong in the worst case
 
barjon said:
I take them whilst they come, toastie, but I can't recall getting to 6 unless there's some in the dim and distant!! Other things count too - the last WOS one, for example, was half position primarily because we hadn't made a new low before - so it would depend on circumstances.

Yes, I've measured the size of pullbacks over hundreds of trades. Nothing significant leaps out, although 50% and less has a better chance of making new low(high) which affects how I play the target zone.

For many years I played this very mechanically, but over the last ten years I've gradually built in more price action sophistication (sic :)) which I like to think has improved the bottom line. Might even look at the order book from time to time ;)

jon
Click to expand...

Intraday on the ES, I am cringing if I am taking the 3rd pullback and not really interested after that. The second is almost always the best and clearest on the right edge.

I would presume that swing traders could go a lot longer...

Interesting about size of swings too - I am wondering if this is more of an intra-day thing.
 
Enzzo said:
Catching up wit the thread a bit after being away couple of days.... It got a unfolded in a very interesting one :)

A range + false breakout in one side, is my very favorite pattern to get involved from the very beginning in a "potential" trend the other way around...

Also when trend rest and consolidates a bit, and the previous Higher Low or Lower High gets broken but without follow through, it is more often than not a really good chance to join the potential trend continuation with a quite lower risk, as you are entering very near of where you would be wrong in the worst case
Click to expand...

Quite true - there is a lot to be said for getting in at a really good price 'value' wise.

I personally would have been uncomfortable taking that trade though.
 
DionysusToast said:
Quite true - there is a lot to be said for getting in at a really good price 'value' wise.

I personally would have been uncomfortable taking that trade though.
Click to expand...

I like a lot to get into trades where most of "by the book traders" got screwed....
It has proved to me to be very good chances to get nice pips/tick
 
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