How do you define a trend? And....

[DionysusToast]

If you look back @ the last 6 days on the ES - on an intraday chart - say a 5 min or 900 tick, you will see periods where it was trending and periods where it wasn't.

If you look on the daily chart, you will see that the market has simply been balanced and swinging from one extreme to the other.

Was it really ever trending?

On Futures markets, intraday trends can USUALLY be defined by participation. It's not always the case but usually, low participation = choppy market. The ES can quite easily put in 2-4 intraday 'trends' in a day and end up where it started. These trends often end with over-participation. New trends almost always start with aggressive participation.

In Forex markets, you cannot gauge participation. I know C_V had a sensible sounding proxy for participation in the forex markets - where you have no volume or delta to guide you.

IMO - the key to continuation of a move lies in participation and not just price action alone.

 

[wackypete2]

Your posts makes little sense to me and I am not surprise.

What he is saying is not everyone is in it to make profits. Just because some players lose money doesn't mean they are less savvy than those who are making money, they are just in the game for different reasons.

Peter

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

@Mike: I'll post a pic later, sure. I'm on my iPad right now.

Thanks Viel.

That will be nice, I am sure many will get benefit from it.

 

[DionysusToast]

@Toast: I think of it as crushing the skulls of my slain enemies to reap their treasure and women. They knew what game they were playing beforehand!

As John Lennon says:

John Lennon- Whatever Gets You Through The Night - YouTube

 

[DionysusToast]

Your posts makes little sense to me and I am not surprise.

Nor me - try eating more fish.

 

[DionysusToast]

or see my profile page.

I see more than a passing resemblance to a matured Harry Potter there...

Is it just me?

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

What he is saying is not everyone is in it to make profits. Just because some players lose money doesn't mean they are less savvy than those who are making money, they are just in the game for different reasons.

Peter

Peter

Mine was a matter of speech indicating a lesser edge for the non educated. Certainly I not here trying to sell something.

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

Nor me - try eating more fish.

Maybe you need to sell more products.

Anyway, how do you define a trend and how best do you take advantage of the trend once determined.

 

[DionysusToast]

Maybe you need to sell more products.

That is & will always remain your best shot at me. Keep taking them if you like.

Anyway, how do you define a trend and how best do you take advantage of the trend once determined.

See post #102

The market is NOT trending most of the time. Look @ the ES in the past 6 days. Sure, we have seen some good intraday moves but I am not sure that these deserve the label 'trend'.

When the market is making a tradable move, I judge the strength of the move by the amount of participation in it. I judge the likeliness to continue by the amount of participation.

I also define a counter-move as a mere pullback or otherwise by the amount of participation.

Participation can be measured as the volume or delta in the move. This of course needs to be taken in context. A rush of participation at the end of a 15 point intraday move on the ES would be a warning sign of the end of the move.

The size of a move 'with trend' or 'counter trend' doesn't bother me so much as how much participation there was in the move.

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

If you look back @ the last 6 days on the ES - on an intraday chart - say a 5 min or 900 tick, you will see periods where it was trending and periods where it wasn't.

If you look on the daily chart, you will see that the market has simply been balanced and swinging from one extreme to the other.

Was it really ever trending?

On Futures markets, intraday trends can USUALLY be defined by participation. It's not always the case but usually, low participation = choppy market. The ES can quite easily put in 2-4 intraday 'trends' in a day and end up where it started. These trends often end with over-participation. New trends almost always start with aggressive participation.

In Forex markets, you cannot gauge participation. I know C_V had a sensible sounding proxy for participation in the forex markets - where you have no volume or delta to guide you.

IMO - the key to continuation of a move lies in participation and not just price action alone.

No, ranging which is not relevant to the thread

Price action is participation with follow/non followup to confirm continuity or none

Neither volume or delta is suggested for it unless ......

 

[DionysusToast]

In terms of taking advantage, a few ways to do this

1 - get your bias one way or the other
2 - target an area the next pullback will end - either by volatility or by areas we have seen price rejection previously
3 - watch the order flow in that area and try to get in at an optimal point

Of course, there's a problem with '3' above - sometimes it'll get to your spot & it moves away before you even get to place the order, so there is some merit I guess in leaving a resting order there and then watching what the markets reaction is after the fill.I rarely do this myself.

Then there's moves that just run. You sometimes see 1 way moves for an extended period with no pullbacks. Usually, there's a reason for this and you will see way above average participation at these times.

For those days/periods - you can stand aside or pucker up and jump in.

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

That is & will always remain your best shot at me. Keep taking them if you like.

Show me another of my post were I have a go at you regarding you been a vendor.
You won't find one, because they do not exist. You probably confuse me with many others of accusing you having your own interests. You definitely need more fish.

Now if you do not mind....

 

[Splitlink]

What he is saying is not everyone is in it to make profits. Just because some players lose money doesn't mean they are less savvy than those who are making money, they are just in the game for different reasons.

Peter

I am in it for occupational therapy! Sounds good that way. However, that said, if I could not make some money out of it I'd do more good with a ladle in the soup kitchens.

 

[DionysusToast]

No, ranging which is not relevant to the thread

Well - here's the thing. The key in recognising trends in any market is knowing how much it trends & how much it doesn't. If you are looking for trends, an understanding how often the market is NOT trending is essential. Also, how trends and non-trends appear is essential. Having some knowledge of significant reversal points doesn't hurt.

Price action is participation with follow/non followup to confirm continuity or none

Neither volume or delta is suggested for it unless ......

All reversals/new trends start with a swing that could be a pullback or a range extension. In my opinion, a relatively large shift in Cumulative Delta on that swing is the single best way to recognise an intraday trend being born in Futures/Stocks. The second best way is the total volume in the swing.

A picture is worth a thousand words.

White numbers = number of ticks in swing
Light Blue numbers = number of contracts in swing
Top graph - Price Swings
Bottom graph - Cumulative Delta
Blue dotted lines - overnight high/low
Green dotted line - yesterdays high

 

[barjon]

well to try and get back on topic - the good, the bad and the downright ugly.

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

Barjon

Please not vendor on this thread, if not I am out of here.

As I said the starter thread should be able to filter them out, they are not needed, they are parasite.
Until then you can post in my place.

You can delete as much as your want my posts but post 115 is just like(or much less) the image of the woman showing her vag!na,(which you wrongly deleted) and nothing else.

 

[VielGeld]

Ok, trades.

First pic may be more characterized as a range, but it was looking like a reversal into trend move there, so I traded it that way.

First trade was premature, so I closed it right quick. It fell to the 50 level, which made it high-prob and I got in on that like a starving man in a desert. Last trade was to see if it would continue, but apparently not.



The next trade has some whited-out ****ty punts because they're embarrassing! Anyway, had a good one after that, but failed to hold through for the big move and my face saw much of my desk for a couple minutes afterwards.



Just goes to show that direction isn't hard to get, though holding on long enough to make a profit can be what wiggles you out!

 

[barjon]

Barjon

Please not vendor on this thread, if not I am out of here.

As I said the starter thread should be able to filter them out, they are not needed, they are parasite.
Until then you can post in my place.

You can delete as much as your want my posts but post 115 is just like(or much less) the image of the woman showing her vag!na,(which you wrongly deleted) and nothing else.

mike

vendors are entitled to post as long as they do not advertise their wares or otherwise promote them.

you might take a dim view of post 115 but it is on topic, which is more than can be said of your cheeky lady.

it'd be a shame if you departed since the thread is a good one.

jon

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

Ok, trades.

First pic may be more characterized as a range, but it was looking like a reversal into trend move there, so I traded it that way.

First trade was premature, so I closed it right quick. It fell to the 50 level, which made it high-prob and I got in on that like a starving man in a desert. Last trade was to see if it would continue, but apparently not.



The next trade has some whited-out ****ty punts because they're embarrassing! Anyway, had a good one after that, but failed to hold through for the big move and my face saw much of my desk for a couple minutes afterwards.



Just goes to show that direction isn't hard to get, though holding on long enough to make a profit can be what wiggles you out!

Viel

Thanks, very smooth. The 30 seconds tf? Nice. If you wish I may suggest some reading on that tf that you could find interesting in, just let me know and I will pm you.

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

mike

you might take a dim view of post 115 but it is on topic, which is more than can be said of your cheeky lady.

jon

Jon

It is not topic, it is only trying to push the idea that volume, order flow and delta are essential in reading the market. BS, specially when it comes from a vendor.

The face of a vag1na will be a much better in reading the market in my view.

As everybody knows there a very big conflict of interests on this forum between vendors and spontaneous traders.

I really suggest that you add the ignore button to filter them out, if not we will be discouraging the spontaneous traders in creating this kind of thread that are here just for the sake of sharing ideas and without them the quality of the forum will drop dramatically and as a consequence the traffic and the readership. This is just common sense.

Mike