Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 13th May 2021.

Market Update – May 13 – Inflation jump keeps trading nervous.


Market News Today –Despite warnings from policymakers, the jump in prices will keep trading nervous. Central bank officials remain adamant that the inflation overshoot that will likely be mirrored in the UK and if not the Eurozone then Germany, is mainly due to base effects and should be transitory, but stocks at least are not so convinced. The surge in April CPI weighed heavily on Treasuries and the jump in yields knocked Wall Street sharply lower. The spike in CPI stole the show this week, though the Fed and indeed global monetary authorities have warned about rising inflationary pressures, the 0.8% jump in the headline and 0.9% surge in the core elicited heavy selling.

Wall Street is on its heels with the USA100 falling -2.67% and the USA500 and USA30 tumbling -2.14% and -1.99%, respectively. The Treasury’s 10-year auction was very well bid, though at the highest yield in over a year. Bond markets across Asia sold off in catch up trade.

BoJ’s Kuroda joined the chorus of central bank officials playing down the spike in inflation as mainly due to base effects, but that didn’t prevent a further sell off in Asian stock markets. Asian equity markets remained under pressure after the sell off on Wall Street yesterday and European stock futures are also lower, with GER30 and UK100 down -0.6% and -0.8% respectively in catch up trade, after still closing higher on Wednesday.

In FX markets, the USDJPY is little changed at 109.68. AUD and NZD underperformed. EURUSD and Cable are little changed at currently 1.2074 and 1.4055 respectively. USOIL is at the $65.37 area. Bitcoin slumped and then recovered somewhat, after Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla Inc has suspended vehicle purchases using the digital currency due to environmental concerns.

Today – Scandi and Swiss markets are closed and many countries are either celebrating Ascension Day or end end of Ramadan, which will likely make for quiet trading conditions. On tap we have US Jobless Claims and speeches from BoC Macklem and BoE Bailey.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.29%) spiked higher above R1 breaking the upper BB line and retesting the nearly 3-months Resistance, at 1.5700. Intraday the MAs aligned higher while RSI is at 71 but flattened and MACD is also positively configured suggesting a positive to neutral outlook. ATR (H1) at 0.00231 & ATR (D) at 0.00993.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th May 2021.

Market Update – May 17 – USD lifts, Gold rallies, BTC Sinks.



Market News Today – USD remains weak (USDIndex down to 90.27). Equities all closed higher (US100 biggest gainer up 2.32%), 457 of USA500 have reported earnings and 87% have beat expectations. Futs. softer today. Commodities tear continues, GOLD breaks $1850. 10-yr Yields slip with USD to 1.62% from 1.70% last week. BTC bombed 12% before recovering, Musk suggested Tesla selling some or all of $1.5b investment (later denied). Asian markets mixed on mixed Chinese data, (Retail Sales missed significantly, Ind. Output in line, Unemployment improved.)

This week – Economic data slim, Earnings from Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowes and Cisco.

EUR – down a tad to 1.2135, JPY holds over 109.00 down to 109.20, Cable holds over 1.4100 AUD holds 0.7760 and CAD holds 1.2100

USOIL back over $65.00 from lows at $63.00 on Thursday, Gold – rallied to 3 mth high $1855 Commodities remain robust. BTC down to test under $42,000, back to $44,000 now.

European Open – Futures are also mixed, with US indices in the red, while DAX and FTSE 100 futures are both up 0.1%. The UK is taking another step towards a full re-opening of the economy today, but amid warnings of caution against the background of new virus variants. In the Eurozone, restrictions vary considerably across countries, with some already at the level of openness that the UK is now going back to. In FX markets both EUR and GBP eased against a largely stronger Dollar earlier, only to improve as the session opened. Data releases today remain thin on the ground, with only the final reading for Italian HICP numbers of note.

Today – US NY Fed Manufacturing, BoE’s Haldane, Vlieghe, Tenreyro, Fed’s Bostic, Clarida, Kaplan Earnings from RyanAir & Advanced Auto Parts.




Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.50%) rallied from 5-day lows below 1.9420 on close to test 1.9550 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 61 & moving higher, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and testing 0 line. Stochs rising and OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0024, Daily ATR 0.0155.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 19th May 2021.

Market Update – May 19 – USD & Equities weak, BTC Slumps.


Market News Today – USD remains weak and cannot catch a bid at the moment. USDIndex down to 89.67. Equities closed down -0.85%, with significant fall in final hour; USA500 4127, despite robust earnings from Walmart & Home Depot. Housing data disappointed. VIX spiked 7.6% to 22.75. Asian markets follow lower. GOLD tested key $1875 level, USOil under $65.00. 10-yr Yields holds at 1.64% despite USD weakness. BTC tumbles under $40,000 on Chinese regulation. Overnight – NZD PPI better than expected, AUD Industrial Production misses. UK CPI – inline at 1.5% (although RPI & PPI stronger).

This week – Economic data slim, FOMC Minutes, Earnings from Walmart (Beat), Vodafone (in-line), Home Depot (beat), still to come today – Target, Lowes and Cisco.

EUR – up and holds over 1.2200 at 3-mth highs 1.2240, JPY struggles and slips under 109.00, Cable rallied to 1.4220 highs yesterday, back under 1.4200 now. AUD back under 0.7800, CAD up from 6-year lows at 1.2012 to 1.2065, and NZD (yesterdays best performer) at 0.7230 from 0.7270)

USOIL edges back to $65.00, Gold – rallied to 3.5 mth high to test key resistance at $1875, trades at $1873. Commodities remain robust. BTC sank under $40,000, (& Ether lost 13% to $2,900) after “China banned its financial institutions from offering cryptocurrency registration, trading, clearing, and settlement in a blow to investors who were betting that digital assets will gain mainstream status.” Reuters. VIX again the largest mover UP 7.60% over 22.60 at 4-day highs.

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is fractionally lower, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury yield is currently up 0.3 bp at 1.64%. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.98% and -0.99% respectively, underperforming versus U.S. futures, which are also in the red, however, after a largely weaker session across Asia overnight. Inflation concerns remain in focus and markets will be watch out for the FOMC minutes today, although the last meeting was conducted ahead of the latest data release.

Today – EZ final CPI, Canadian CPI, FOMC Minutes, ECB’s Panetta, Rehn, Lane, Fed’s Bullard, Bostic. Earnings from Lowe’s, Target, Cisco, L Brands, & Analog Devices.



Biggest Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX.F (+7.60%) rallied from under 19.00, yesterday to 22.75 now. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 67 & moving higher, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher having broke 0 line into close yesterday. Stochs rising and in OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.57, Daily ATR 2.45.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 20th May 2021.

Market Update May 20 – USD gets reprieve, BTC Bounces.


Market News Today – USD gets a reprieve from surprise FOMC minutes. Minutes showed “taper talk” was discussed much more than any participant held implied since the meeting. USDIndex back over 90.00. Equities closed down -0.29%, USA500 4115, despite robust earnings from Lowes & Target, CISCO disappointed, after hours. Asian markets follow lower. Overnight – AUD unemployment mixed, JPY machine Orders better, trade flat.

This week – Economic data slim, FOMC Minutes, Earnings from Walmart (Beat), Vodafone (in-line), Home Depot (beat), Target (beat), Lowes (beat) Cisco (miss). Still to come today – Applied Materials & Ralph Lauren.

EUR – down from 3-mth highs at 1.2240 under 1.2200 to 1.2185, JPY still struggles at 109.00, Cable back under 1.4200 and 14100 now. AUD back to 0.7750, CAD up from 6-year lows to 1.2100.

USOIL edges back up after yesterdays sell-off from under $62.50 to $63.50, Gold – rallied to 3.5 mth high to test key resistance at $1875, again trades at $1874. Commodities cooled but remain robust. BTC sank under $30,000, (& lost -54% from peak last month) – back to $40k now. All from Musk & “China banned its financial institutions from offering cryptocurrency registration, trading, clearing, and settlement in a blow to investors who were betting that digital assets will gain mainstream status.” Reuters.

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down -15 ticks, underperforming versus U.S. futures, which have moved slightly higher, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury rate is down -0.2 bp at 1.67%. The reading is up from overnight lows though, as stock market sentiment started to stabilise during the Asian part of the session and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. U.S. futures have moved sideways after a weaker close on Wall Street and against the background of the Fed minutes, which suggested that some policy markets have at least started to think about tapering “some point”. For now though the official line at central banks is that the uptick in inflation is transitory and ECB’s Schnabel, who predicted a German CPI rate of over 3% later in the year, said that inflation is likely to recede again in 2022.

Today – US Initial Job Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Index, SARB rate decision, ECB’s Lane, Lagarde, BoE’s Cunliffe, Fed’s Kaplan, Earnings from Applied Materials & Ralph Lauren



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.34%) rallied from under 0.6961, yesterday to over 0.7005 now. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 60 & moving higher, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher having broke 0 line earlier. Stochs rising and in OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0051.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 24th May 2021.

Market Update May 24 – Fear dominates.


Market News Today – Consolidation generally ruled the day in bonds and stocks after some big swings in recent sessions. The focus remains on the robust recovery, the rise in inflation, virus spikes and widening distribution of vaccines, and the varying dimensions of all left the markets in limbo.

Traders kept a close eye on volatile cryptocurrencies as China reiterated its commitment to curb mining and trading. Bitcoin was savaged and is currently at $36.5k, after it was hurt in part by China’s crackdown on mining and trading of the largest cryptocurrency as part of ongoing efforts to prevent speculative and financial risks. China’s intensifying efforts to cool raw material prices were also in the mix, as were ongoing inflation concerns, which in turn fuelled lingering taper talk.

SHANGHAI, May 24 (Reuters) – Cryptocurrency miners, including HashCow and BTC.TOP, have halted their China operations after Beijing intensified a crackdown on bitcoin mining and trading, hammering digital currencies amid heightened global regulatory scrutiny of them. A State Council committee led by Vice Premier Liu He announced the crackdown late on Friday as part of efforts to fend off financial risks. It was the first time the council has targeted virtual currency mining, a big business in China that accounts for as much as 70% of the world’s crypto supply.

Treasuries traded narrowly around unchanged levels with the 10-year yield either side of 1.625%. Wall Street continued to meander in back-and-forth action as investors mulled growth versus value positions. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, and US futures are also fractionally higher, after a pretty steady session in Asia.

In FX markets the Yen strengthened and USDJPY dropped back to 108.70, while the Dollar was pretty steady against most other currencies. The EUR and GBP both steadied at 1.2190 and 1.4150. The AUD traded near the lower end of its 5-week range as the country’s central bank is seen lagging global peers in tightening monetary policy despite a strong economic recovery. It is currently at 0.7735. USOIL meanwhile is trading at USD 64.05 per barrel.

Today – Whit Monday/Pentecost holidays in parts of the continent will likely weigh on activity. The only key events of the day are Gov. Kuroda and Gov. Bailey speeches.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.51%) declined from 109.00 to 108.70. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 38 pointing lower, MACD histogram turned negative but signal line holds positive, suggesting that there is still some negative bias in the near term. H1 ATR 0.0665, Daily ATR 0.5566.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 25th May 2021.

Market Update – May 25 – Greenback drifts, Commodities Jump.


Market News Today – Wall Street was higher overnight as diminished worries over inflation and declining Treasury yields offered support. Big tech took the lead, boosting the USA100 over 1.5% higher, with the USA500 up over 1% and the USA30 0.7% firmer.

While it may be early to pull down the inflation red flags, the 10-year breakeven fell the most last week since September, indicating less concern over prices. Investors will look toward Friday’s release of the PCE deflator, the Fed’s favourite indicator.

Asian bond markets still benefited from soothing words on inflation from the Fed yesterday and yields dropped in Australia and New Zealand, while stock markets mostly moved higher, despite a mixed news flow that included further reports that Japan will extend the state of emergency on Covid developments and new local restrictions in Australia. The US State Department warning not to travel to Japan due to Covid may have some bearish repercussions on the markets in early trading. FTSE Russell will add China’s Xiaomi Corp to its global indexes next month.

• Fed’s Bostic said the economy has been more resilient than expected.(voter)
• Fed’s Bullard said he does not want to discuss adjusting policyduring the pandemic. (non-voter)
• Fed Governor Brainard confined her prepared remarks on digital currencies. (voter)
• UK: BoE members, including Governor Bailey, continued to argue that inflationary pressures are transitory in nature.

European News – In Europe, Germany had the second look at Q1 GDP, presenting that the Covid-19 hit on the German economy was bigger than expected in the first quarter. German Q1 GDP was revised slightly lower – to show contractions of -1.8% q/q, and -3.1% y/y (wda), versus -1.7% and -3.0% reported with the first release. Lockdown measures were the main reason for the sharp decline in activity, with restrictions severer than in France, Italy or Spain, at least initially.



In FX markets, there were reports of Yuan intervention from China. Presently the Yen is mostly weaker and USDJPY little changed at 108.60. EURUSD lifted to 1.2252 and Cable skyrocketed to 1.4200. USOIL is trading at USD 66.05 per barrel as Iran suggested that there are still open questions in negotiations over a deal to end US sanctions on its crude. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index rose the most in about a week. Bitcoin reversed to 38.8K and GOLD jumped to 1886 on EU open from 1872.

Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index
Today – The European data calendar today has Q1 trade data, along with the May Ifo business climate report. The UK has April public sector borrowing figures. The US calendar includes new home sales, home price data, and consumer confidence.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 26th May 2021.

Market Update – May 26 – Yields fall further in opening trade.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Market News Today – Bonds were in the spotlight on Tuesday, posting solid gains, while stocks were mixed in a more back-and-forth trade. Dovish comments from central bankers, and especially Fedspeak, which continue to play down inflation, provided support, as did a strong 2-year Treasury auction. Wall Street stumbled from its opening rally and shed its gains after data suggested rising price pressures knocked consumer confidence lower. But ongoing dovish Fedspeak helped offset the selling.

In Europe, GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.4% and 0.04% respectively, with a 0.4% rise in the USA100 leading US futures higher. Strong survey data out of Germany confirmed a broadening and strengthening of the recovery, but in a way that backs the assertion that a temporary mismatch of supply and demand is the main reason for the rise in price pressures. ECB’s Stournaras said he doesn’t see the need for a change to the PEPP program.

The June 10-year Bund future is down -0.6 bp, which suggests bonds will get a bid in early trade, after Fed officials once again moved to calm taper concerns and inflation jitters by re-iterating that the rise in prices will prove temporary.

Any initial demand for bonds may quickly fizzle out, especially after the RBNZ projections reminded markets that the next move at central banks will almost certainly result in tighter policies. RBNZ left policy unchanged, as expected.

In FX markets, the Yen and US Dollar struggled, while the NZD rallied as yields jumped higher. USDJPY is currently little changed at 108.76. Both EUR and GBP moved higher against a largely weaker Dollar, with EURUSD at 1.2259 and Cable at 1.4161. USOIL is trading at USD 66.04 per barrel, as traders weigh expectations of improving demand in the US against the possibility of new supply from Iran. Bitcoin gained 2.39% to $39,314.81 despite China’s northern region of Inner Mongolia escalating a campaign against cryptocurrency mining on Tuesday, days after Beijing vowed to crack down on bitcoin mining and trading. Gold is at $1907.

Today – The calendar is pretty empty today, with only some national business confidence readings out of France, before the Eurozone ESI report tomorrow and FOMC Quarles speaking, and Crude Inventories.



Biggest Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+1.28%) rallied to 79.55 after RBNZ, breaking 79.41 which was the Resistance level maintained since March 2018. In the 1 hour chart, faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 82 but still pointing right, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher while Stochs rising despite reaching OB at 93. The OB condition of both RSI and Stochs could alert the need of consolidation or pullback, but this is not the case so far. H1 ATR 0.1596, Daily ATR 0.6699.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27th May 2021.

EURUSD: Improving outlook with downside risks.


Central bankers continue to do their best to keep tapering concerns at bay, but while ECB’s de Cos added to the dovish voices out of the Eurozone this week, Bundesbank President Weidmann and centrist Executive Board member Schnabel are due to speak this afternoon and likely to present a more balanced view. A compromise for the June meeting could be a scaled back monthly purchase target within an unchanged PEPP framework and overall QE target, which would effectively mirror the BoE’s action. Against that background the air for Eurozone bonds as well as stocks may be getting thinner at these levels as markets look to US data releases. GER30 and UK100 are down -0.3% and -0.1% respectively.



EURUSD has drifted off highs as markets anticipate a batch of US economic data releases today and tomorrow, including key price data. The Euro has lately found an underpinning from the improving outlook in the Eurozone economy, with the recent wave of Covid infections having been quelled and the EU having finally got its act together with its vaccination program. As for the US inflation situation, the prevailing dominant view is that price pressures will abate in Q3, as year-on-year base effects narrow and supply bottlenecks are ironed out, which — for now at least — is keeping shorter-dated Treasury yields anchored at low levels, with the Fed expected to hold out on ZIRP and QE.

The CME’s Fedwatch Tool shows that market positioning is implying a probability for a 25 bp Fed hike by year-end of just 9%, having ebbed back from the 11% odds that were being implied last week.

EURUSD futures are implying a first 25 bp hike in 2023, about a year ahead of what the Fed has been signalling. EURUSD is holding higher above the 20-day EMA. However, the market has been trading in a horizontal trajectory the past 8 days within the upper boundary of the 1.2165 Resistance and the lower immediate boundary of the 1.2157 Support. The RSI is sloping sideways above the 50 level, while the stochastic is heading downwards after the negative cross within the %K and %D lines. MACD lines held well above zero, presenting along with RSI an overall bullish outlook but a neutral outlook in the near-term.

However the key Support level for the asset is 1.2135, which is the confluence of the 20-Day SMA and 23.6% Fib. level. If the price breaks this bottom, it could meet the 50-day SMA and the 1.2000-1.2050 area. Bullish movements could open the way for the pair to test the year’s peak and even the multi-year highs at 1.2460-1.2500, if the bulls manage to successfully surpass 1.2250 (FE 61.8%).

In conclusion, EURUSD is neutral in the near term but is looking neutral to bearish in the short-term outlook.

Nevertheless, as stated in our latest post, EURUSD’s prevailing upside bias seems likely to sustain so long as markets continue to buy-in to the Fed’s narrative, but would see downside risk should Fed tapering start to look more inevitable. This would be when the US versus Eurozone growth differential is matched by a Fed versus ECB tightening expectations differential, which would be the circumstance for the directional bias of EURUSD to shift to the downside.

It is notable that the doves on the governing council have lately been quiet about the ascent of the Euro, despite the tightening effect via real interest rates. In fact ECB’s Panetta said just yesterday that the recent rise in the Euro could, if sustained, “weaken inflationary pressures.” Given the outsized fiscal stimulus and higher growth trajectory in the US, the bigger-picture risk for EURUSD is to the downside.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 28th May 2021.

Market Update – May 28 – US Inflation & Stimulus in focus.


LONDON

Market News Today – Treasuries slumped after news President Biden will offer a $6 tln spending plan on Friday. Gilts led a sell off in EGBs yesterday after hawkish leaning comments from BoE’s Vlieghe hinted at the possibility of an early rate hike. Wall Street was generally firmer on reflation trades and the stimulus news, though the major indexes also lost altitude into the close as the administration also indicated it wanted to make the capital gains tax increase retroactive to April. As for the data, the mixed numbers didn’t provided any clear directional clues. The BoJ is reportedly mulling an extension of the pandemic relief program as Japan prepares to extend its state of emergency. Stock markets at least moved broadly higher across the Asia-Pacific region. JPN225 jumped 2.1%, at 29,127.

Today, stock markets are not really spooked and the GER30 and UK100 are up 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, alongside broad gains in US futures. In the meantime, German import prices were released and jumped 10.3% y/y in April, the highest reading since December 2010 and up from 6.9% y/y in the previous month. Base effects from energy prices remain the main driving factor, with oil prices up nearly 200%, prices for mineral oil products nearly 80% and natural gas up nearly 60%.

In FX markets, NZD eased across the board, while USD and Yen were sought. NZDUSD is at 0.7240 (200-period EMA). Both EUR and GBP moved lower against the Dollar, with EURUSD at 1.2175 and Cable at 1.4105. USOIL rallied to $67.16. Gold is at $1889.30 ahead of today’s data.

Today: Local data releases today are likely to support the recovery story, with Eurozone ESI economic confidence, and key US data in the PM session, i.e. PCE, Michigan Index and Good Trade Balance. The G7 meeting of Finance Ministers and central bankers may also attract some attention.


Biggest Mover @ (07:30 GMT – NZDUSD -0.65%) NZDUSD dipped to 0.7240. In the 1 hour chart, faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 31 and still sloping, MACD histogram & signal line turned below zero. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0069.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 31st May 2021.

Market Update – May 31 – USD Holds gains.


Market News Today – UK , US closed today. USD holds gains following Fridays PCE and PMI data. USDIndex closed Friday @90.00 down from 90.41 high and –1.34% for the month. US stocks closed flat on Friday (For April USA30 +1.94% & USA100 -1.53%) Global stocks start muted to the new week. Most Asian equities retreated after signs China’s econ recovery may be leveling out (PMI dipped) and JPY data was mixed, global inflation risks a concern. Bonds steady w/US 10y yields at 1.59%. Gold reclaims $1,904 and USOil trades at $66.65.

This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales, GDP and CPI & a rate decision from the RBA and monthly PMI data – The data could reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

European Open – Virus developments remain in focus as recovery broaden but against the background of rising cost pressures. On the data front, the focus will be on preliminary inflation data for Germany and Spain, which are likely to show a further acceleration in headline rates. The German number is already above the ECB’s definition for price stability and likely to rise further, although for now base effects from energy prices remain the main driving factor, which allows the ECB to see through what it still expects to be a temporary overshoot.

Today – German regional & national CPIs.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.26%) up from Friday’s low at 0.7676 to move over 0.7000 into close and now trade at 0.7725. MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 55.25 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and testing 0 line from below. Stochs. rising and in OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0063.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 1st June 2021.

Market Update – June 1 – USD Back under pressure.


Market News Today – USD weighed into the new month. USDIndex down into close under 90.00 at 89.75 now. RBA – No Change and no fuss – although they did highlight the improving jobs market, concern over housing price surge and the Covid outbreak in Victoria – AUD been a good performer along with GBP over night. Asian markets positive at 1-month highs, positive PMI data from JPY & CNY and AUD Housing data, lifted sentiment. Oil up ahead of OPEC+ meeting (not expected to discuss output beyond July and wants to wait and see what happens with Iran) “sources”. Brent over $70.00, USOil at $67.65 and 12 week highs. GOLD bid by inflation worries & weaker USD – trades at $1913, next key resistance $1922-5.

This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales & GDP and monthly PMI data – The data could reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

European Open – Holidays in the U.K. and the U.S. made for a very slow start to the week yesterday. Investors will be back today but trading so far has still been muted. The June 10-year Bund future is down -5 ticks, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury rate has lifted 2.0 bp to 1.62% in catch up trade. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.4% and down -0.3% respectively, while U.S. futures are posting fractional gains. Further indications of strengthening growth are also accompanied by lingering inflation concerns and of course tapering jitters. In FX markets EURUSD is little changed at 1.2233, while Cable has lifted to 1.4227

Today – EZ, UK, US Final Manufacturing PMI, EZ Flash CPI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed’s Quarles, Brainard, BoE’s Bailey and JMMC/OPEC+ meetings. Earnings from ZOOM.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.25%) rallied from near 16- week lows on Friday’s close at 0.6920 yesterday to close at 0.6950. Rallied again today to 0.6977 ahead of RBA, since cooled to support at 0.6960. MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 55.00 and now neutral, MACD histogram & signal line choppy, remain over 0 line from below. Stochs. moving lower out of OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0041.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 2nd June 2021.

Market Update – June 2 – USD off lows.


Market News Today – USD off lows but remains pressured. USDIndex down to 89.63 yesterday back to 89.90 now. Good PMI data and a beat for EU CPI (up to 2.0%) will focus minds at the ECB – and a strong US Manufacturing PMI will add to the “to talk taper or not” at the FED. OPEC+ agreed to increase production in July (USOil dipped from $68.60 to $67.35). US Markets closed flat (USA500 -2 to 4202); Zoom Earnings & profits beat, outlook trimmed, AMC rallied 22% after $250m investment. Asian markets are mixed. Overnight a significant beat for AUD GDP and revisions sent Aussie lower, as positive comments from RBNZ Governor Orr sent NZD lower. German Retail sales a huge miss (-5.5% vs -2.4%) as lockdowns bite, EUR 1.2212 from 1.2225. GOLD dipped from $1916 yesterday to under $1900 now.

This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales & GDP and monthly PMI data – The data could reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 13 ticks at 169.96, the September Treasury future little changed, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate is now unchanged at 1.61%, after the paper erased overnight losses. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.1% and US futures are also posting fractional gains, but it looks like a cautious start to the day, with investors still digesting yesterday’s data round ahead of the Beige Book for the next FED meeting.

Today – CB Speak day – US Private Oil Inventories, RBA’s Debelle, Bullock, ECB’s Elderson, Lagarde, Buba’s Weidmann, Fed’s Harker, Evans, Bostic, Kaplan, Kashkari.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.37%) rallied from under 20-day moving average yesterday and a dip to 1.9470 earlier, over PP and R1 to 1.9580. MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 64.75 and rising, MACD signal line rising (under 0 line) however, histogram has broken over. Stochs. still moving higher and into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0021, Daily ATR 0.0140.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 3rd June 2021.

Market Update – June 3 – Standing By for Jobs Data.


Market News Today – USD grinds higher awaiting jobs data. USDIndex spiked to 90.20 yesterday back to 90.00 now. Equity markets edged out gains (USA500 +6 to 4208). AMC rallied 95% after Tuesday’s +22% after $250m investment. Asian markets higher, ASX200 at ATH, USOil over $69.00 following OPEC+ deal. Overnight Chinese Services PMI miss, AUD Retail Sales in line and Harker talked of “low rates for longer”, Beige Book “moderate pace of expansion”. Suga to hold snap election after Olympics, Biden progresses Infra talks with Republicans & offers incentives to boost vaccination rate, UK 75% of adults at least one vaccination. EUR 1.2186, JPY 109.80, GBP 1.4150. GOLD dipped from $1909 earlier to under $1895 now

This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales & GDP and monthly PMI data – The data could reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is little changed, as are Treasury futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate is now up 0.3 bp at 1.59%, after the paper pared earlier gains. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.2%, while U.S. futures are narrowly mixed, with overall trading still sluggish and muted as investors wait for another trigger, with the focus now on US payroll numbers tomorrow. Tapering musings seem to be getting louder and while ECB’s Lagarde stressed late on Wednesday that the central bank will maintain favourable financing conditions through the crisis, that would undoubtedly still be the case if monthly purchase volumes under PEPP were scaled back to the levels seen early in the year.

Today – EZ, UK and US Services and Composite Final PMIs, US ADP, Weekly Claims, ISM Services PMI, DoEs, ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Bostic, Kaplan, Harker, Quarles



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.38%) has moved down to test yesterdays lows at 0.7205 (S1) earlier, (last Thursday was trading over 0.7300). faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 32.40 and filing heading to OS zone, MACD signal line and histogram falling again and have been below 0 line since Tuesday. Stochs. still moving lower and into OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0063.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 4th June 2021.

Market Update – June 4 – Dollar bounces ahead of NFP.



Market News Today – USD sprang to life after strong ADP (978k vs 645k), Weekly Claims (385k vs 400k) and ISM Services PMI data (64 vs 63). USDIndex has rallied (+0.8%) to 90.57 after closing over 20-day moving average for the first time since April 7. Equity markets sank (USA100 hit hardest; -1%) (USA500 -0.4%, -15pts to 4192, as VIX rallied 1.1%). 10yr Yields have rallied to 1.632%. Asian markets also lower. All eyes on NFP at 12:30 GMT. USOil down from $69.00 to $69.70 (following a much bigger inventory drawdown of 5.1mb vs 1.2 expected ) Overnight Stronger rebound for Japanese household spending, Fedspeak remained Dovish lead by Williams “not concerned by inflation outlook”. Biden offers 15% min. rate for Corp. Tax and 28% top has post NFP press conference scheduled (14:15 GMT). EUR 1.2107, JPY 1109.25, GBP 1.4100. GOLD (& other commodities (partic. Copper) slumped on the stronger USD – touched $1855, closed at $1870 and holds there now.

European Open – The Sep 10-year Bund future is little changed, as are US futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate stabilised. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are fractionally lower, as are US futures. Strong data releases and tapering musings saw yields moving higher yesterday and investors will likely hold back ahead of the key US payroll numbers later today. It seems increasingly likely that central banks will start to rein in monetary support as fiscal stimulus is underway and the growth outlook improves, and expectations are that the ECB will start reining in asset purchases over the summer, in a flexible manner that allows the central bank to keep a close eye on spreads and step in if necessary.

Today – EZ and UK Construction PMIs, US and Canadian Jobs Reports, US Factory Orders, Fed’s Powell, ECB’s Lagarde, Villeroy, de Cos, PBoC’s Yi Gang, BoJ’s Kuroda, SNB’s Jordan & RBNZ’s Orr



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.26%) has moved up from 15-week lows yesterday (0.6907) to rally to 0.6936. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 54 and spiking higher, MACD signal line and histogram rising but remain below 0 line from yesterday. Stochs. still moving higher and into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0063.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 7th June 2021.

Market Update – June 7 – Dollar subdued following jobs and G7.



Market News Today – The markets characterized the May US jobs report as Goldilocks –neither too hot, nor too cold. Indeed it was just right for bond and stock bulls. Treasuries rallied with a burst of short covering as the smaller than expected headline job increase pushed a Fed tapering further out the calendar. The steep drop in yields was very favorable to Wall Street, and especially the USA100. Today stock markets traded narrowly mixed amid disappointing trade data out of China and with investors keeping a close eye on comments from Treasury Secretary Yellen, who urged President Biden to press ahead with spending plans ($4 trillion/year), even if they may fuel inflation, while saying that a “slightly higher” interest rate environment would be a “plus”. China trade data showed weaker than expected export growth, but a jump in imports to the highest since 2010.

G7 – agreed to a global minimum tax of at least 15% on multinational companies but faces a rocky path to implementation. (The Biden administration could win support for its US tax increases). The deal give countries more authority to tax the profits of digital companies like Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc. that dominate global markets but pay relatively little tax in many countries where they operate.

European Open – The Sep 10-year Bund future is little changed, as are US futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has lifted 2.0 bp to 1.57%. EGBs are also likely to move up from the lows seen in the wake of the US payroll number on Friday. With fiscal support being stepped up and the recovery strengthening, the pressure on central banks to take the foot off the accelerator is getting stronger and flexible QE schedules may become more of a thing especially for the ECB, which will be meeting on Thursday. The ECB is expected to move away from its commitment to “significantly” higher monthly PEPP purchases. GER30 and UK100 futures are currently down -0.2% and up 0.04% respectively, while US futures are fractionally lower.

Covid will remain on the regional radar again this week, as cases in several countries continue to rise, causing economic restrictions and factory closures. Thailand and Vietnam have been hit by fresh outbreaks, while Malaysia last week put a total lockdown in place. The restrictions will ultimately impact incoming data in the region.

Today – Today’s slate includes Japan’s Q1 GDP, current account, PPI and the MoF business outlook survey. Supply is a focal point in the week ahead with the $120 bln in coupon auctions. Today‘s rally in Treasuries reflects little fear. Ironically, the richening may work to diminish demand. Markets will also digest the G7 agreement on tax payments of big firms today.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURGBP (+0.49%) has moved up from its 2-month floor at 0.8560. Faster MAs remains aligned higher, RSI 68 and spiking higher, MACD signal line and histogram rising but signal remain at 0. Stochs turning lower from OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0005, Daily ATR 0.0041.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 9th June 2021.

Market Update – June 9 – Markets holding patterns.



Market News Today – Global bonds were in rally mode Tuesday, with early support from a flight to safety after several government, social media, and news websites went down. Though later determined to be a problem with a US cloud computing firm, the recent hacks of major companies had left investors anxious. The widespread internet outages spooked investors following a series of hacks in recent weeks that brought down the Colonial Pipeline and JBS.

Treasuries benefited from a flight to safety, and then a short covering bid just after the open, sending longer dated yields sharply lower, while Eurozone spreads narrowed. Today however the 10-year Treasury yield is down -0.8 bp at 1.53% and bonds in Australia and New Zealand outperformed in catch up trade. CPI readings out of China came in lower than anticipated at 1.3% y/y, but PPI inflation was the highest since 2008 at 9.0%. GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.1% and down -0.1% respectively. US futures are little changed.

Oil prices meanwhile continued to move higher as confidence in the recovery strengthens. US officials said they have recovered $2.3m worth of the ransom payment made to hackers who shut down the Colonial Pipeline last month and disrupted the country’s fuel supplies for several days.

Officials are apparently considering imposing a cap on the price of thermal coal to contain high energy costs.

World Bank projects global growth at a 5.6% clip this year, a big upward boost from the 4.1% clip that had been estimated in January. That would be the fastest pace of expansion since the 6.6% clip from 1973 and results from the global distribution of vaccines and massive stimulus measures. The global economy contracted -3.5% last year.

Today – The event risk for tomorrow’s ECB meeting is that Lagarde will sound less dovish than markets seem to be expecting, as strengthening growth and usually quieter trading conditions over the summer will argue for increased flexibility on PEPP purchases going forward. With the ECB meeting and US inflation data looming tomorrow, stock markets are likely to be pretty static today, with indices still hovering at very high levels.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) – Sugar prices provided clear positive trades yesterday to move away from the 17.70 level, which supports the continuation of the 11-day rally, motivated by positively configured MACD and RSI. Key resistance is the 18.20 high on May 12.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 10th June 2021.

Market Update – June 10 – It was all about Treasuries and still is!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – It was all about Treasuries again as yields continue to drop, and despite the rates tumbling to the lowest since March 3, ahead of the CPI data there was stellar demand for the 10-year auction.

10-year Treasury yields have dropped back a further -1.0 bp below 1.50% for the first time since March. Bearish positioning in Treasuries seems to be more extreme than initially thought. Bond markets across the Asia-Pacific region also found buyers, leaving the 10-year JGB rate down -0.1 bp at 0.060% and Australia’s 10-year rate down -8.9 bp at 1.48%.The September 10-year Bund future is up 7 ticks, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped -1.2 bp to 1.48%.

Short covering and technicals remained big factors behind the move as bond bears threw in the towel on bearish inflation and Fed tapering bets.

Stock markets have been more cautions but benefited from the drop in yields, and indexes are mostly higher, while today the stocks are still in green with GER30 and UK100 futures up 0.1% and 0.3% at the moment and US futures also posting fractional gains, with indexes already at very high levels. JPN225 has gained 0.3%, the ASX is up 0.5% and Hang Seng and CSI 300 are 0.4% and 0.9% higher on the day.

Today – The ECB meeting takes center stage. The ECB is expected to keep the overall policy framework unchanged on Thursday, but review monthly purchase volumes under the PEPP program, which were “significantly” enhanced through Q2 as Europe fought with another surge of infections and a slow vaccine rollout. The US calendar will be of interest today, with the key May CPI report due.



Biggest FX Mover – GBPJPY drops to the 154 level, after it opened the day below the 20-day MA. It has posted a reversal from 156 highs since the end of May. Next key Support is at 153.45, which is a confluence of May’s floor and lower BB pattern.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 11th June 2021.

Market Update – June 11 – Market relaxed on inflation fears.


Market News Today – Gilt yields closed higher after stronger than expected US inflation numbers, while Eurozone bonds, in particular BTPs, got a boost from the ECB announcement, which affirmed the commitment to keep monthly PEPP purchases “significantly” higher than at the start of the year. The ECB is essentially in wait and see mode and seems to be focusing very much on the outlook for the travel and tourism sector against the background of new virus variants. Central banks successfully convinced markets that the spike in inflation is transitory and after the spike in US inflation yesterday, the Eurozone May inflation round will likely look tame by comparison.

In Asia, Australia and New Zealand bonds found buyers, but in South Korea bonds extended losses after comments from the central bank’s chief economist on normalizing policy. For now the factors driving the jump look transitory, but there are some lingering concerns that it could become entrenched and there was talk that central bankers willdiscuss tapering at the Jackson Hole meeting over the summer.

In Europe, the bunch of data releases out of the UK at the start of the session was largely bond friendly, despite monthly GDP being a tad weaker than expected at 2.3% and industrial and manufacturing production unexpectedly dropping -0.3% and -1.3% respectively. The visible trade deficit meanwhile remains sizeable at around GBP 11 bln.

In FX markets the Yen struggled and USDJPY lifted to 109.42, while the EUR strengthened and EURUSD is at 1.2192, while Cable is little changed at 1.4182. Stock markets mostly managed slight gains as markets continued to digest the uptick in US inflation. JPN225 is up 0.04%, GER30 and UK100 futures are still up 0.1% and 0.2% respectively and US futures are also higher, led by a 0.11% rise in the USA100. USOIL is at $70.14 per barrel.




Biggest FX Mover – USA100 just a breath below 14k. Currently the rally has stalled, with fast MAs flattened along with RSI at 63 while Stochastic is sloping lower pointing to 20 barrier. ATR (H1) at 17.70 and ATR (D) at 142.70.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 14th June 2021.

Market Update – June 14 – USD & Equities hold onto gains.



Market News Today – Markets closed flat to higher on Friday close to ATHs. Dollar rose into close and holds its bid today. EURUSD is little changed at 1.2106, Cable at 141.13 and JPY 109.70. Yields fell to 3-mth lows at 1.428% on Friday. Many Asian markets closed today; no data in the US calendar and Eurozone releases focusing on April production data. G7 proposed 1 billion vaccine doses for LIC, a global infrastructure plan to rival China’s Belt & Road 25 yr scheme, a charge against human rights and more talk on the climate crisis ahead of COP26 in November. USOil rallied to test $71.00 and Gold collapse continued down to $1858.

Week Ahead – All eyes on Wednesday (18:00 GMT) & the FOMC Announcement & Press Conference. Markets expecting more dovishness with “talk about talking about Tapering” not happening until the July or even September meeting. BOJ & SNB also on the stump. Biden meets Putin.

European Open – DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, and US futures are also posting gains of around 0.1-0.2%. The G7 rebuke to China was met with a quick rebuttal. The U.K. meanwhile is set to push the full lifting of virus restrictions back into July against the background of a fresh rise in case numbers. ECB President Lagarde meanwhile is quoted by Politico as saying that its too early to debate the end of PEPP as officials need to really anchor the economy. The results of the ECB’s strategic policy review meanwhile are hoped to be on the table by the end of summer.

Today – EZ Industrial Production, ECB’s Schnable and BoE’s Bailey



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.40%) has bounced from a big down day on Friday, a close below 200-day MA at 19-week low 0.6395. Breached 0.9400, Pivot Point and 20-hr MA today, 50-Hr MA at 0.6425. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 52 still neutral, MACD signal line and histogram rising but remain below 0 line from last week. Stochs. still moving higher and into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0063.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 15th June 2021.

Market Update – June 15 – Equities at record highs.



Market News Today – US Markets closed at record highs (USA500 4255) and Asian stocks followed but closed mixed after key markets returned after long weekend. Dollar holds on to gains (USDIndex 90.40). EURUSD (1.2125) and Cable (1.4115) little changed. JPY holds the break of 110.00. Yields off 3-mth lows and up to recover 1.50%. USOil rallied again to $71.35 before cooling under $71.00 and the Gold collapse spiked as low as $1845, back to $1865 now. Copper off -2% yesterday too. Overnight – AUD Housing inflation steeper than expected, Bailey talked digital currencies & US passed the grim 600k Covid deaths milestone. Strong UK Jobs data, Claims, Earnings and Unemployment all beat expectations.

Week Ahead – All eyes on Wednesday’s (18:00 GMT) FOMC Announcement & Press Conference. Markets expecting more dovishness with “talk about talking about Tapering” not expected to happen until the July or even September meeting. BOJ & SNB also on the stump. Biden meets Putin Wednesday after NATO summit.

European Open – DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, US futures are posting gains of around 0.1%, after another record on Wall Street yesterday. Investors seem to be putting inflation concerns aside for now although mutterings that there could be more lasting shifts in prices are getting louder. For now though the focus is on the FOMC announcement tomorrow. The U.K. pushed out the date for the full lifting of Covid restrictions to July 19.

Today – Empire State Manu. PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, ECB’s Lane, Panetta, BoE’s Bailey, Government supply from the UK, Germany & US.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) USDNZD (+0.26%) has bounced from a big down day on Friday, at 0.7115 and a floor yesterday at 0.7130, to move over 0.7150 and clear of the 20-hr MA. Next resistance 0.7180. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 58 and rising, MACD signal line and histogram rising and testing 0 line. H1 ATR 0.00072, Daily ATR 0.0060.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.