Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 25th March 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th March 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week

The Brexit saga continues next week with the Vote standing out as the event of the week, even though important data releases are scheduled across many currencies in the coming days.

Monday – 25 March 2019
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* All Industy Activity Index (JPY, GMT 04:30) – The Industry Index, known for its leading indicator abilities, is expected to have stood at 0.2% m/m in January, compared to -0.4% in December.

* German Business Climate (EUR, 09:00) – Business climate in the largest EU country is expected to have grown marginally to 98.7 compared with 98.5 last month.

* Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The overall trade deficit of New Zealand is expected to have declined to $6.1 billion in February, compared to $6.4 billion in January.

Monday – 26 March 2019
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* Housing Data (USD, GMT 00:30) – Housing starts and Building Permits are expected to have increased marginally in February, while the S&P House Price Index is expected to have continued its deceleration, growing by 3.9% in January, compared to 4.2% in December. As in previous occasions, housing market data usually have more impact on the stock market than on the currency.

* CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Conference Board Index is expected to have increased to 132.1, compared to 131.4 in the previous month.

Monday – 27 March 2019
_________________________________________________________________________

* Interest Rate Decision (NZD, GMT 01:00) – No change is expected in the RBNZ meeting, with the Central Bank likely to also push forward a “wait-and-see” stance.

* Trade Balance (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Business climate in the largest EU country is expected to have grown marginally to 98.7 compared with 98.5 last month.

Monday – 28 March 2019
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* German CPI (EUR, N/A) – The German inflation rate is expected to have increased to 0.6%, compared to 0.4% in the previous month.

* US Final GDP (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final release of the 2018Q4 GDP growth rate is expected to see the world largest economy’s economic activity to have grown by 2.4% compared with the preliminary reading of 2.6%.

* Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have remained at 1.1% y/y in March, at the same level as in February. Industrial Production is expected to have improved, growing by 1.4% m/m in February, compared to -3.4% m/m in January, while Retail Sales are expected to have increased by 0.9% y/y in February, compared to 0.6% in January.

Monday – 29 March 2019
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* UK Final GDP (GBP, GMT 09:00) – UK economic activity is expected to have remained at its preliminary level of 1.3% y/y in 2018Q4.

* US Personal Spending (USD, GMT 12:30) – Personal Spending is expected to have grown by 0.3% m/m in January, compared to a 0.5% m/m reduction in the previous month.

* Chicago PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Chicago PMI is expected to have declined to 61.8 compared to 64.7 last month, however still showcasing growth.

* UK Parliament Vote (GBP, Tentative) – The UK Parliament is expected to convene in order to vote for a revised Theresa May plan or in favour of a no-deal Brexit.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 26th March 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th March 2019.

FX News Today

• 10-year Treasury yields are up 2.8 bp at 2.427%, JGB yields climbed 1.8 bp to -0.076% amid a mixed session on Asian stock markets.
• Japanese markets in particular rebounded from yesterday’s sell off after sentiment started to stabilize during the US session yesterday and Wall Street closed little changed.
• The sharp drop in US bond yields last week and the shape of the yield curve revived fears of a global recession last week, but while yields remain at low levels for now at least the mood seems to be slowly lifting.
• Markets will continue to keep a very close eye on the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and three months bills, which is judged to be a key recession indicator and inverted last Friday. This week’s US bond auctions will be closely watched.
• The UK Parliament takes control of the Brexit process after May’s defeat, with a new vote scheduled for tomorrow.
• Topix and Nikkei closed with gains of 2.57% and 2.15% respectively. The ASX gained 0.07%, while Hang Seng and Shanghai comp are down -0.15% and -1.35%.
• US futures are higher as are the European ones. The front end WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 59.21 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD has been trading around the 1.13 level, breaking below but not maintaining it yesterday. Immediate Resistance at 1.1338, at the 200HMA. Indicators are also not registering any up or down signals.
• GBPUSD continues to trade around the 1.32 level, in a tight channel between this and the 1.3223 200HMA level. The MACD does not show much action, while Stochastics issue bullish signs.
• USDJPY dropped below the 110.34 level, trading around the 110 level, which appears to hold despite some breakouts below it. Resistance remains at 110.34 and Support, after the 110 immediate level, lies at 109.80.
• XAUUSD broke below the 1320 level early today, with the MACD registering bullish signs as the Stochastics indicator is moving in the oversold region. Support and Resistance levels remain at 1313.8 and 1320 respectively.

Main Macro Events Today

• Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts and Building Permits are expected to have increased marginally in February, while the S&P House Price Index is expected to have continued its deceleration, growing by 3.9% in January, compared to 4.2% in December. As in previous occasions, housing market data usually have more impact on the stock market than on the currency.
• CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Conference Board Index is expected to have increased to 132.1, compared to 131.4 in the previous month.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27th March 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th March 2019.

FX News Today

• Bund yields are coming down again and the 10-year Treasury rate is at 2.412%, down -1.1 bp on the day, underperforming versus bonds in Australia, New Zealand and China.
• The US 10-year rate remains below the 3-month rate, which continues to feed concerns about the growth outlook and the risk of recession, especially against the background of dovish shifts at major central banks, and is underpinning choppy trade in stocks.
• Japanese equities, which outperformed Tuesday, underperformed today and Topix and Nikkei lost -0.52% and -0.23% respectively.
• Chinese markets, meanwhile, outperformed after heading south yesterday, although mainland China indices are down from earlier highs. The Shanghai benchmark is still up 0.60%, the blue-chip CSI 300 1.00% higher on the day and the Hang Seng up 0.59%.
• US stock futures are also moving higher in tandem with European futures and the front end WTI future is at USD 60 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD broke through the 1.13 level yesterday, and is currently trading around its 1.1256 Support level. Immediate Resistance is at 1.13. Indicators are issuing positive signals.
• GBPUSD pushed down from the 1.32 level, trading around the 1.318 Support level, while the indicators suggest a slightly upwards tendency.
• USDJPY gained yesterday, breaking through the 110.34 Resistance level and is now trading between it and the 110.73 Resistance. Indicators are showing bearish signs.
• XAUUSD same as yesterday, Support and Resistance levels remain at 1313.8 and 1320 respectively, with Gold trading between those two bands.
• Biggest loser – NZDUSD: After the RBNZ’s comments that the next interest rate move is likely to be a reduction, the Kiwi lost 104 pips, pulling the AUD down along the way, albeit in a shorter movement. Resistance stands at 0.6807, while Support is at 0.6790.

Main Macro Events Today

• Draghi Speech (EUR, GMT 08:00) – The ECB President is due to speak at the “ECB and its Watchers” conference in Frankfurt, where many other ECB representatives are also expected to speak.
• US and Canada Trade Balance (USD / CAD, GMT 12:30) – Both trade deficits are expected to improve, with the US trade deficit expected to decrease to $57 billion from $59.8 billion last month. The Canadian trade deficit is expected to have declined to $3.5 billion from $4.6 billion in December.
• UK Brexit Vote (GBP, GMT 19:30) – Many options on the table for today’s vote, including a second referendum, customs union, revoking Article 50, and, of course, no-deal Brexit.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 28th March 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th March 2019.

FX News Today

• Slide in global bond yields continues.
• The flattening or outright inversion of yield curves meanwhile is fuelling recession fears and also turning into a self-sustained cycle.
• Bund yields drop below those of JGBs yesterday after ECB tiered depo story potentially pushing the timing of the first rate hike.
• US Equities dragged lower by deeper curve inversion, taken as global risk signal.
• WTI crude down 1% under $59.30 after mixed EIA – crude build, product draws.
• Brexit: May’s pledge to step down may not be enough to secure her deal.
• GBP steady as Brexit process reaches defining phase; no-deal exit now very unlikely.
• DUP still doesn’t back Withdrawal Agreement.
• MPs yesterday rejected a range of alternative options, but with the customs union proposal coming pretty close and losing by just 8 votes, so that seems to be the front runner in alternative scenarios to May’s deal.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD has formed a falling wedge since March 27. Indicators are issuing neutral to positive signals. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 1.1283 within the next 6 hours.
• GBPUSD rebounded from 1.3140 and is trading a breath below PP level at 1.3193. Support is set at 1.3118 as the indicators suggest a slightly downwards tendency.
• USDJPY bottomed at 110.05, with next Support at 109.70 level. Indicators are negatively configured suggesting further negative bias intraday.

Main Macro Events Today

• German CPI (EUR, N/A) – The German inflation rate is expected to have increased to 0.6%, compared to 0.4% in the previous month.
• US Final GDP (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final release of the 2018Q4 GDP growth rate is expected to see the world largest economy’s economic activity to have grown by 2.4% compared with the preliminary reading of 2.6%.
• Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have remained at 1.1% y/y in March, at the same level as in February. Industrial Production is expected to have improved, growing by 1.4% m/m in February, compared to -3.4% m/m in January, while Retail Sales are expected to have increased by 0.9% y/y in February, compared to 0.6% in January.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 29th March 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th March 2019.

FX News Today

• 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.5 bp at 2.400% and JGB rates lifted 0.6 bp to -0.100% amid a broad move higher in long yields across Asia.
• Hopes of progress in US-Sino trade talks helped to underpin confidence and stock market sentiment improved after Mnuchin said he had a “productive working dinner” in Beijing yesterday with the US Treasury Secretary and US Trade Representative in China to resume trade talks.
• Chinese markets in particular benefited and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are up 3.49% and 2.85% respectively. The Hang Seng has risen 0.97% so far, while Topix and Nikkei closed with gains of 0.56% and 0.82% respectively and the ASX lifted 0.08%. US futures are also broadly higher and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 59.54 per barrel.
• The Brexit Vote today, which only includes the Withdrawal Agreement and not the Political declaration, will likely fail, again. The day is largely symbolic as today was supposed to be Brexit Day.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD continued its downwards trend, breaking through the 1.1256 Support level. However, it appears to have reached the end of the hill as both the MACD and Stochastics point to the upside.
• GBPUSD keeps declining as fears of no-deal Brexit continue, currently fluctuating around the 1.30 Support. Indicators are registering mixed signals as the MACD is positive and the Stochastics are negative, while the short MA crossed the long MA a couple of hours ago.
• USDJPY gained some despite mixed Japanese data, as the country appears to have been able to maintain its inflation at stable levels. The pair broke through the 110.73 level and is currently trading just below the 200HMA at 110.62. Both MACD and Stochastics are pointing downwards.
• XAUUSD remained flat below the $1300 mark after the drop from the 1311 level yesterday. No particular movements observed from the indicators.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK GDP (GBP, GMT 09:30) – 2018Q4 GDP is expected not to have seen any material changes from its preliminary estimate and remain at 1.3% y/y.
• PCE and PCE Inflation (USD, GMT 12:30) – Personal spending is expected to have increased by 0.3% in January, compared to a reduction of 0.5% last month. PCE inflation is expected to have remained at 1.9%, the same as in December.
• Canada GDP (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian GDP is expected to have registered no m/m growth in January, compared to a 0.1% contraction in December.
• UK Parliament Brexit Vote (GBP/EUR, GMT 13:30) – The final call for Brexit, with MPs having to vote on a deal that is essentially the same as before albeit not defining the UK’s future relationship with the EU.
• Chicago PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Chicago PMI is expected to register signs of weakness in March, reducing to 61.0 from 64.7.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 01st April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 01st April 2019.

FX News Today

• Bond yields continue to recover from recent lows.
• Stock markets started the second quarter with renewed optimism.
• USA500 still posted the best quarter in a decade.
• Signs of progress in U.S.-Sino trade talks helped to underpin sentiment and saw mainland China bourses outperforming amid a general move higher in Asian stock markets. Both sides said there was progress in talks.
• An unexpected jump in China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI to 50.8 revived hopes that government measures to boost the economy.
• The front end WTI future is trading at USD 60.58 per barrel, amid sanctions, production cuts.
• USDJPY edged 8-day high at 111.17.
• EURUSD rebounded to 1.1240 overnight after printing 3-week low of 1.1207.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD rebounded, breaking through the 1.1240 R1 level. However, it appears to have reached the end of the hill for today as it is currently looking southwards with RSI sloping lower as well.
• GBPUSD keeps inclining so far today, but remains close to Pivot at 1.3048 as fears of no-deal Brexit continue.
• USDJPY printed an 11-day high at 111.18, as the safe haven premium of the Japanese currency unwind. USDJPY has support at 110.50-53, levels which encompasses the prevailing situation of the 100-day moving average.
• NZDUSD – top gainer so far along with Aussie – jumped at 0.6836, from Thursday’sFriday’s tweezer bottom. A confirmation of this formation and a move above the 20-day SMM at 0.6840, could turn the attention to last week’s highs around at 0.6900.

Main Macro Events Today

• Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 49.5 in March.
• Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to be confirmed at 1.5%y/y in March, with core inflation holding at 1%.
• Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – February’s Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.3% m/m, from the 0.2% rise in January.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to come out at 54.5 in March, compared to the 2-year low of 54.2 in February.
• BREXIT Vote on alternative plans

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 2nd April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd April 2019.

FX News Today

• Wall Street was higher overnight, followed by the better than expected US manufacturing ISM and construction spending reports (they offset disappointing retail sales).
• JGB yields still moved higher, in tandem with most Asian stock markets, but the buoyant mood in equities that dominated yesterday’s session turned a bit more muted, as the focus turned from revived hopes on a US-Sino trade deal and a recovery in the manufacturing sector to Brexit risks.
• RBA left monetary policy on hold amid increased downside risks, but seems to be awaiting the fiscal injection that is expected to be unveiled today.
• UK Parliament rejected all options on Brexit compromise, customs union close miss.
• GBP was under pressure due to revived concerns of a no-deal scenario.
• WTI crude rallied 2% to a fresh 5-mth high near $61.82, on supply side tightness.
• USDJPY lifted to 11-day highs amid risk-on; EURUSD hit 3-week low near 1.12.
• GOLD holds the key 1285 level – at 1287.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• GBPUSD is under pressure once again, trading southwards below its Pivot for the 10th consecutive hourly session. A breach and break of S1 at 1.3025 could suggest the retest of 26-day Support at 1.2970.
• USDJPY printed an 11-day high at 111.45, as the safe haven premium of the Japanese currency unwinds. USDJPY has support at 111.20.
• NZDUSD holds at 3-week lows. Support holds at 0.6770. The next support on the break of the latter is at 0.6750. If the asset rebounds however, Resistance has been set at 0.6800. Overall outlook remains negative due to the descending triangle formation and the decreasing momentum indicators in the daily chart.
• BTCUSD – biggest mover – Spiked to 5013 from 4216. However, intraday the asset looks overbought, with RSI at 81, and a doji closing the past hour.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Markit Construction PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The Construction PMI is expected to improve to a 50.0 reading after dropping sharply in February to 49.5, which was the lowest reading since July 2016 (the month after the vote to leave the EU).
• Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – February Durable Goods orders are expected to decline to 1.2%, following a 0.3% January gain.
• Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (USD, GMT 12:30)

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 3rd April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd April 2019.

FX News Today

• Stock markets continued to recover during the Asian session, with concerns that the world economy is sliding into recession calmed by better data out of China and trade talk hopes.
• Sentiment was underpinned by a stronger than expected services PMI out of China. Further sign that economic growth is coming back.
• US as well as European equity futures are also moving higher.
• Brexit: UK PM May would sit down with Opposition leader Corbyn to try and break the deadlock. Meanwhile, new referendum in the UK on EU membership and a customs union now are both looking increasingly likely.
• A compromise needs to be found before the EU emergency summit on April 10 to secure another extension until May 22.
• GBP cleared $1.3100 after PM May talked up another deal, despite Commons failure.
• WTI crude surged over clear $62.87; Gold capped near $1,291 by USD index 1-month high.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• GBPUSD jumped in London open, above latest peak at 1.3150. Next Resistance levels are set at 1.3178 and 1.3230. Support holds at 200-period SMA at 1.3120, for 12 consecutive hourly sessions.
• EURUSD holds Support at 1.1216, which was the initial resistance. With momentum indicators though looking to turn southwards a break of this level could shift the asset back to PP level at 1.1200.
• USDJPY probed 111.45 highs amid risk-on, by breaking 2-day peak and R1 for the day. Currently it is retesting the 111.56, which is a breath above the upper BB level and coincides with FE161.80 extension (from March rebound) and the latest up fractal. This could be a retracement level for the asset.
• AUDUSD hit 50-day SMA at 0.7117. this area could provide some resistance to the asset, as the asset lacks of positive momentum based on the daily indicators. Abreak however of the latter but more precisely of yesterday’s high at 0.7128, might push Aussie to the next barrier at 0.7160.

Main Macro Events Today

• Retail Sales and Services (EUR, GMT 08:00-09:00) – Eurozone March Services reading expected to be confirmed at 51.3, while Retails sales could spike to 2.3% y/y in February.
• ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 165k for March compared to the 183K in February.
• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM non-Manufacturing PMI in the US is expected to slip to 58.7 in March, compared to 59.7 in February, supporting the strong economic climate despite the small decrease in its value.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 4th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th April 2019.

FX News Today

• 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.1 bp at 2.513% and JGB yields fell back -0.5 bp to -0.060%, as the stock rally stalled during the Asian session and the USD consolidated overnight.
• Big misses for ADP Jobs (50k) and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (19-month low) pressed a pause on Equity rally.
• Parliament passed (by 1 vote) a bill to ask to extend Brexit Day beyond April 12, but it remains unclear whether there is time to get it through by May 22. A longer extension looks most likely while the odds of a full 2nd Referendum odds are also increased.
• Asian markets are mostly trading narrowly mixed, with traders waiting for another catalyst such as tangible progress on the US-Sino trade talks before pushing equity markets out further following the recent rally.
• Topix and Nikkei are down -0.11% and unchanged on the day respectively. The Hang Seng dropped -0.42%, while CSI 400 and Shanghai Comp are up 0.80%, with hopes of government stimulus after the government said it plans to cut some airline fees adding support. The ASX meanwhile lost -0.83%.
• Oil futures are trading at USD 62.37 per barrel.
• German Factory Orders just in and is a big miss it is (-4.2% vs expectations of +0.3%), putting the German Industry in recession territory.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• GBPUSD reacted positively after the UK Parliament asked the government to ask for another extension of the Brexit deadline. Resistance level remains at 1.3184, with a strong one at 1.32, while Support is bounded by the 200HMA at 1.3137.
• EURUSD is trading close to but below its 200HMA at 1.1248, affected by the weaker than expected US data, with indicators not showing a clear direction.
• USDJPY paused its rise after the worsening in US data releases, stabilizing around the 111.40 level. Both the MACD and the Stochastics indicators are suggesting a downturn. Support and Resistance remain at 110.73 and 111.68, although the former could change as the 200HMA could be binding.
• XAUUSD continues trading below 1300, fluctuating around the 1290 mark. Next Resistance point is at 1294.50 with indicators suggesting a mild upwards movement.

Main Macro Events Today

• ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – The ECB Accounts, similar to the FOMC Minutes, provide an insight with regards to the policymakers’ thinking about the European economy’s potential.
• Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to have decreased over the last week of March, while Initial Jobless Claims are forecast to have increased.
• Canada PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – The Canadian PMI is expected to have risen to 51.1 in March, compared to 50.6 in February.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 5th April 2019.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th April 2019.

FX News Today

• 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.3 bp at 2.528%, JGB yields down -0.7 bp at -0.0585 amid subdued trade on Asian stock markets.
• China was closed for a holiday and elsewhere markets traded mixed, with Topix and Nikkei managing gains of 0.23% and 0.28% respectively, while the ASX closed with a loss of 0.83%, although the latter was an exception, with most markets managing slight gains.
• There were some optimistic comments on the progress of the US-Sino trade deal from China, with Trump tweeting that he expects a deal “within 4 weeks” but after the recent run higher in equities traders will want to see more than words before pushing valuations higher.
• Markets will also be holding back ahead of key US payroll data today amid lingering concerns about the outlook for world growth. US futures are posting slight gains ahead of the key release, with the Dow Jones mini up 0.133%.
• GBP picked up (back over 1.3100) on a Brexit “Flexi-Extension” offer from the EU which suggests an extension of up to 12 months, but Britain could leave at any time if they signed an agreement.
• The front end WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 62.16 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• GBPUSD reacted positively to “Flexi-Brexit”, showing upwards potential with Resistance at the 200HMA at 1.3126, and a stronger one at 1.3184, while Support stands at 1.3067.
• EURUSD moved up and down yesterday, with MAs showing an upwards movement with Resistance at its 200HMA at 1.1238, with both the MACD and Stochastics showing upwards signs.
• USDJPY continued its rise, breaking through the 110.68 level and trading around that level as of this morning. Both the MACD and the Stochastics indicators are suggesting a downturn. Support and Resistance remain at 110.95 and 111.80.
• XAUUSD has been trading in the 1285-1294 band, with indicators giving out mixed signals. Support and Resistance are marked as the channel bounds.

Main Macro Events Today

• NonFarm Payrolls, Earnings, Unemployment (USD, GMT 12:30) – The most important piece of news this week, NFPs are expected to have grown by 180K, compared to 20K in the previous month, while earnings and unemployment are expected to have remained at the same levels.
• Canada Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian Participation Rate is expected to have declined to 65.7% compared to 65.8% last month, while the net change in employment is expected to have been just 1K compared to 55.9K last month. Unemployment is not expected to have changed.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 8th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th April 2019.

FX News Today

• 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.1 bp at 2.485% and 10-year JGB yields fell back -2.9 bp to -0.069%.
• Stock markets failed to get lasting support from China stimulus hopes and the rebound in US payrolls on Friday. Indices climbed initially after a document published on the central government website yesterday suggested Beijing would step up the policy of targeted cuts to banks’ reserve ratios in a bid to encourage lending to small and medium sized companies.
• However, while the ASX still managed to close 0.54% higher, Chinese bourses erased earlier gains and Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp are down -0.03% and -0.87% respectively, while the CSI 300 blue chip index is down -0.75%. Topix and Nikkei also struggled and lost -0.42% and -0.25%.
• Earnings reports are coming into focus and investors are positioning for lacklustre results.
• US futures are also heading south, which suggests a correction from the six month high seen last week after the employment report. President Trump pressured the Fed to do more to sustain growth, while official comments from both sides suggest progress in trade talks.
• Oil prices are higher and the front end WTI future trading at USD 63.33 per barrel, amid concerns that fighting in Libya could lead to supply outages.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD moved in a downwards channel on Friday and early today, and has bounced off its 200HMA at 1.1230, although trading around it in the past couple of hours. Support still remains at 1.1213, while Resistance, after the 200HMA stands at 1.1233. Indicators are showing mixed signals.
• GBPUSD gained some on the last trading hours, bouncing off the 1.3067 Resistance, although the overall trend is still down. Support remains at 1.3027. The MACD is registering positive signs as the Stochastics are showing negative.
• USDJPY made a significant downwards move as the Japanese trade balance showed a surplus, compared to expectations of a deficit. After breaking through the 111.68 Support, the pair bounced off 111.34, as indicators are showing positive signs.
• XAUUSD broke clear of the 1294.5 Resistance level, and is currently trading just above its 200HMA, at 1296. Next Resistance level is 1300.

Main Macro Events Today

• Factory Orders (USD, GMT 14:00) – February orders are expected to have declined by 0.6% m/m, compared to a 0.1% increase in January.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 9th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th April 2019.


Macro Events & News

By
Dr Nektarios Michail
-
April 9, 2019

FX News Today

• 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.4 bp at 2.519% and JGB rates up 0.2 bp at -0.052%, as Asian stock markets traded narrowly mixed, with threats of new tariffs on European goods from President Trump adding to the cautious tone in the markets.
• Topix and Nikkei are down -0.26% and 0.06% respectively, the Hang Seng is up 0.22% and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp up 0.11% and down -0.27% respectively, while the ASX closed down -0.01%, despite better than expected loans data.
• US futures are also posting slight losses and overall it seems investors are in a holding position ahead of the earnings season and with no firm agreement on US-Sino trade talks yet.
• Trump’s renewed threat of tariffs on European goods meanwhile acts as a reminder that geopolitical trade tensions are far from resolved.
• Oil prices meanwhile continue to hold above USD 64 per barrel amid fighting in Libya.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD stabilized around the 1.125 level, unable to break past the 1.1276 level. Support stands at 1.1256, with indicators showing mixed signs.
• GBPUSD broke through the 1.3067 level and is currently bound by the 200HMA at 1.3090, after positive news regarding a meeting between May, Merkel, and Macron. Support remains at 1.3067.
• USDJPY continues its downwards move towards the 111.22 level capped by the 200HMA, as soft Resistance is at 111.50. Indicators are suggesting a pause of the movement.
• XAUUSD is trading between the 1295-1300 marks, above its 200HMA and with indicators showing a slight downwards movement.

Main Macro Events Today

• JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – Job vacancies are expected to have declined to 7.55M in February, compared to 7.58M in January.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 10th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th April 2019.


Macro Events & News

By
Dr Nektarios Michail
-
April 10, 2019

FX News Today

• 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.4 bp at 2.486% as JGB yields fell back -0.4 bp to -0.063%.
• The IMF’s growth downgrade has rekindled concerns about the outlook for the world economy and the US threat of new tariffs on imports from Europe has reminded markets that geopolitical trade tensions are far from resolved and put a stop to the rally in recovery in stock markets seen over the past week.
• China’s bond yield rose to the highest this year as risk aversion flared up and the focus increasingly turns to China’s still large number of non-performing loans.
• Markets are also looking to Europe today, where the EU has to make a decision on yet another Brexit extension. The IMF named Brexit as one of the risks to world growth.
• Wall Street closed in the red and Asian markets also headed south, with Topix and Nikkei down -0.73% and -0.66%. The Hang Seng lost -0.34% so far and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.10% and -0.14%.
• US stock futures, however, are posting marginal gains, after yesterday’s correction on Wall Street.
• The front end WTI future meanwhile continues to hold above USD 64 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD started moving upwards on early Wednesday, following the Brexit positive news, with both Stochastics and the MACD showing support for this movement.
• GBPUSD has been fluctuating in the 1.3026-1.3067 range for the past hours, also bounded by the 200HMA at 1.3082. Stochastics and the MACD support an upwards movement.
• USDJPY broke through the 200HMA, now at 111.31 early yesterday, but has been moving in a slight upwards trend after the worse than expected machinery orders for February. Indicators support the movement.
• XAUUSD broke through the 1300 mark but is still bounded by the 1304 Resistance, with indicators appearing indecisive regarding the future trend in the pair.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production and GDP (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Manufacturing production is expected to have declined by 0.7% y/y on February, compared to -1.1% in January. Industrial Production is expected to have eased to 0.1% m/m compared to 0.6% m/m last month, while UK GDP for February is forecast to register zero growth m/m, down from 0.5% m/m in January.
• ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR, GMT 11:45) – No changes are expected in the ECB policy rate, even though some policy guidance should be offered, especially with regards to future rate hikes.
• US CPI Inflation (USD, GMT 12:30) – Core CPI is expected to have remained at 2.1% y/y, close to the Fed’s 2% target. The overall index is forecast to rise to 1.8% compared to 1.5% in March.
• European Council Summit on Brexit (EUR-GBP, GMT 16:00) – The future of Brexit is expected to be discussed in the summit, with the EU said to offer a “flextension” until either December 2019 or March 2020, even providing the UK with the opportunity to withdraw its application for leaving the EU.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 11th April 2019.


Macro Events & News

By
Dr Nektarios Michail
-
April 11, 2019

FX News Today

• Treasury yields stabilised after falling yesterday in the wake of softer core CPI readings, while the US 10-year rate is up 0.5 bp at 2.470%.
• 10-year JGB yields fell back -0.2 bp to -0.068% in catch up trade and as stock market sentiment remains muted.
• Indices traded mixed with Chinese markets underperforming.
• Dovish leaning central banks revived growth concerns and geopolitical trade tensions also continue to hang over markets, with no tangible sign of a US-Sino trade deal.
• The Brexit question was kicked down the line to October 31, but without a clear solution in sight.
• Topix and Nikkei are down 0.4 bp and up 0.08% respectively, while Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lost -0.88% and -1.31%. The CSI 300 blue chip index is down -1.99% and the ASX closed with a loss of -0.36%.
• US futures are also marginally in the red, while the front end WTI future is trading at USD 64.25 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD broke through the 1.1276 level in the last few hours, with soft Resistance at 1.1286 and strong resistance at 1.13. Stochastics and the MACD show mixed signals.
• GBPUSD gained as news of the decision to delay Brexit was announced, even though whether it can persist above the 200HMA level of around 1.3086 is still unclear. Indicators show an easing of the trend.
• USDJPY continues to trade below the 200HMA, now at 111.11 with both the Stochastics and the MACD showing support for an upwards trend.
• XAUUSD broke 1304 after breaking the 1300 mark yesterday, currently trading between the 1309 and 1304 levels. Indicators again appear indecisive regarding the future trend of the pair.

Main Macro Events Today

• US PPI ex Food & Energy (USD, GMT 11:30) – The US PPI is expected to have grown by 2.4% in March, compared to 2.5% last month, similar to the core CPI results yesterday.
• Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 11:30) – Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have increased to 211K, compared to 202K in the last week of March, while Continuing Jobless Claims are forecast to reach 1.738M against 1.717M last week.
• Fedspeak: Clarida, Williams, Bullard, and Bowman (USD, Various) – All 4 FOMC Members are due to speak on monetary policy issues, a topic which is likely to affect markets, depending on the context.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 12th April 2019.


Macro Events & News

By
Dr Nektarios Michail
-
April 12, 2019

FX News Today

• 10-year Treasury yields are unchanged at 2.497% and JGB yields up 0.6 bp at -0.059%, in catch up trade, after perky US PPI readings put pressure on bonds yesterday, even if they are not expected to alter the Fed’s patient policy setting for now.
• Chinese bonds continue to underperform amid warnings on the still large number of non-performing loans that could threaten some banks and force the government to step in.
• Stock markets traded mixed, again with China underperforming, as markets await key trade numbers. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.10% and up 0.67% respectively.
• The Hang Seng lost -0.27% so far and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.49% and -0.26% respectively.
• Reports of impending cost cuts at Australia’s largest bank meanwhile helped the ASX to close with a gain of 0.76%.
• US futures are posting slight gains ahead of key earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. The front end WTI future is trading at USD 63.83 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD keeps trading above the 1.1276 level in the last few hours, after trading below that point through the night. A strong Resistance point remains at 1.13. Stochastics and the MACD show signals of a downwards move.
• GBPUSD keeps trading around the 1.30 mark, crossing its 20HMA early today, but with indicators showing mixed signals.
• USDJPY continues to increase and broke through the 111.68 level, and coming near the 111.80 Resistance. Stochastics and the MACD show an easing of the upwards movement.
• XAUUSD had a bad day yesterday, breaking through four Support levels and ending below 1294. Since then, it has been registering a slow upwards trend, something more evident in the Stochastics than the MACD indicator.

Main Macro Events Today

• China Imports and Exports (CNH, AUD, N/A) – Even though no exact time has been specified, China’s trade performance is expected to have a strong effect on its currency and the Aussie. Exports are expected to have increased, after a sharp decrease last month, while imports are still expected to have shown negative growth.
• Industrial Production (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Industrial Production is expected to have decreased by 0.6%, compared to growth of 1.4% in January.
• Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, 14:00) – US Sentiment is expected to decline to 98.0 in April, compared to 98.4 in March.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 15th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th April 2019.

Macro Events & News

By
Andria Pichidi
-
April 15, 2019

FX News Today

• The broad rise in Asian long yields holds as local stock markets rallied in catch up trade after a strong close on Wall Street.
• Trade talk hopes, signs of improving growth and low inflation, coupled with positive earnings reports continued to underpin stock market sentiment. Mnuchin suggested over the weekend that US-Sino talks are nearing the final round and that the final agreement would go “way beyond” previous efforts to open China’s markets to US companies.
• US futures are narrowly mixed while European stock markets are underpinned.
• Japanese markets are closing for 10 consecutive days from April 27 to May 6, inclusive.
• After the strong first quarter earnings report from JPMorgan on Friday the focus is now turning to Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Bank of America.
• The front end WTI future is trading at $63.53 per barrel.
• USD and JPY lower vs most currencies, risk appetite up on strong China import data.
• GBP steady after EU Brexit extension; risk is it won’t resolve UK political gridlock.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD keeps trading close to 3-week highs of 1.1323. Stochastics, RSI and the MACD show signals of further improvement intraday. Next Resistance point holds at 1.1330.
• GBPUSD pulled back under 1.3100 after leaving a high at 1.3120. It is supported from the confluence of 200-period EMA and PP level the past 7 consecutive hours, at 1.3084. Next Support is set at 1.3065.
• USDJPY settled at around PP level at 111.90 . However after Friday’s high the positive sentiment is decreasing with intraday RSI and MACD turning lower as the overall outlook remains positive. The upside Resistance level is set at 112.19, while Support now comes in at 111.68.

Main Macro Events Today

• FOMC Member Evans Speaks – Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans is due to speak in a television appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box.
• BOC Business Outlook Survey – The BoC’s outlook survey is expected to show an economy still moving along at a decent pace, but facing a number of challenges. This is a key report for the upcoming BoC announcement and MPR, as the Bank makes frequent references to the findings of the survey. A survey consistent with modest but still respectable growth, well contained inflation expectations and an unwinding in capacity pressures would line-up with our expectation for no change in rates later this month and through year-end.
• Empire State index – It is estimated to jump to 9.0 in April from a 2-year low of 3.7 in March.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 16th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th April 2019.

Macro Events & News

By
Andria Pichidi
-
April 16, 2019

FX News Today

• A mixed picture on Asian bond markets as Stock markets were mostly higher, while Japanese indices fell back from early lows and Chinese indices rallied in the second part of the session.
• A lacklustre Bank earnings report yesterday saw some investors turning cautious again and in Asia many will be waiting for Chinese GDP numbers tomorrow.
• US futures are moving higher, with the Dow Jones future up 0.239%.
• The front end WTI future is trading at USD 63.27 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD settled to narrow orbit of 1.1300, consolidating with MACD, and RSI been flattened in the neutral zone confirming the lack of direction. Resistance is set at PP level at 1.1306 and Support is at the latest low 1.1292.
• USDCAD edged higher at 1.3395, holding inside recent ranges, as crude oil slumped $0.50. As it is set for a 2nd trading day above 20-day MA with upper Bollinger bands extending to the upside, a retest of the next Resistance levels at 1.3405 and 1.3440 could be seen.
• USDJPY found support again under the 112.00 mark, after topping at 112.03overnight. A move over the March 5 high of 112.13 could take the pairing to near 4-month highs. Support now comes in at 111.79.

Main Macro Events Today

• Earnings and Unemployment Rate – Average Earnings are expected to have remained at 3.4% while the unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 4%.
• German ZEW – The ZEW investor sentiment is expected to lift out of negative territory in the April reading and rise to 0.5 from -3.6 in March, which would be a continuation of the improvements in recent months and suggests that pessimists no longer outnumber optimists.
• US Industrial Production – March industrial production is projected to rise 0.2%, after a flat February reading, and capacity utilization should edge up to 79.2% from 79.1%.
• NZ CPI Inflation – New Zealand’s inflation rate is expected to have declined to 1.8% y/y compared to 1.9% y/y in the final quarter of 2018.
• Trade Balance – The Japanese trade balance is expected to turn out positive in March, standing at 310 billion Yen, compared to 335 billion Yen in February.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th April 2019.

FX News Today

• 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.7 bp at 2.598% and JGB yields climbed 1.8 bp to -0.015%, as stock market sentiment got a boost from Chinese data releases that beat expectations.
• Chinese GDP growth came in at 6.4% y/y, in the first quarter, unchanged from Q4, while production surged 8.5% y/y and retail sales 8.7% y/y.
• Data were taken as a sign that the government’s stimulus measures are starting to take effect. While it may be too early to call the all clear on the world economy, together with signs that US-Sino trade talks are making progress, the data will go some way to bolster confidence, especially after positive surprises on credit and housing data last week.
• The data underpinned Asian stock markets, as Topix and Nikkei posted gains of 0.29% and 0.27% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 0.01% and CSI 400 and Shanghai Comp gained 0.11% and 0.34%.
• Broader Asian indices are at the highest level since last July, even as the ASX underperformed and closed with a loss of -0.35%, dragged down by the materials sector.
• US futures are also posting broad gains and the front end WTI future has moved up to now USD 64.50 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD moved past 1.13 early today and has been moving towards the 1.1315 Resistance level. Key Resistance remains at 1.1320 while the Support at 1.1279 is still strong after being hit twice yesterday. Indicators support an upwards move.
• GBPUSD has been moving downwards but is so far unable to break through the psychological 1.30 level, fluctuating around the 1.3067-1.3026 levels. Indicators are giving mixed signals.
• USDJPY found support again under the 112.00 mark, and continued to trade there yesterday, with the Japanese data releases causing only some volatility. Indicators are showing mixed signals.
• XAUUSD is trading at lows, after breaking through the 1285 Support level. Gold appears unable to break through the 1275 level, with the MACD and Stochastics showing upwards signals.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK RPI and CPI inflation (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Both the RPI and the CPI are expected to have declined in March, reaching 2.1% and 1.6% respectively, down from 2.5% and 1.9% respectively.
• EU CPI inflation (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Both the core and the overall CPI inflation rates are expected to have remained at the same levels, at 0.8% and 1.4% respectively.
• Canada CPI Inflation (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The BoC Core price index is expected to have remained at 1.3% y/y, while the overall CPI index is forecast to rise to 1.9% y/y in March compared to 1.5% in February.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th April 2019.

FX News Today

• 10-year Treasury yields corrected -2.7 bp to 2.567% and JGB yields are down -1.4 bp at -0.0033%.
• Asian bonds were generally supported, as stock markets sentiment turned sour again, with South Korean paper underperforming after the BoK left interest rates unchanged, but cut its growth and inflation forecast to 2.5% and 1.1% respectively.
• Record household debt was one of the factors holding the BoK back from cutting rates for now, and South Korea’s 10-year yield jumped 5.9 bp as the bank tried to calm recession fears.
• Stock markets generally corrected from the six months high seen yesterday with uninspiring corporate earnings and problems with a new Samsung phone preventing further gains for now.
• Topix and Nikkei lost -0.96% and -0.80% respectively, after Wall Street closed with slight losses.
• The Hang Seng is down -0.58%, CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp down -0.44% and -0.39% respectively. The ASX dropped -0.10% and US stock futures are also broadly lower, suggesting ongoing pressure on markets.
• The front end WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 63.77 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD is still trading around the 1.13 level, and in a channel with key Resistance at 1.1320 and Support at 1.1279. Both are still strong after having bounced yesterday. Indicators are issuing mixed signals.
• GBPUSD has been stable around the 1.30 level, still unable to break through, fluctuating between the 1.3067-1.3026 Resistance and Support levels. Indicators are giving positive signals.
• USDJPY started the day below 112.00 mark, as indicators are suggesting a downwards movement. Support remains at 111.80.
• XAUUSD is trading at year-to-date lows, after breaking through the 1275 Support level. 1270 is the next Support level, with indicators are showing signs of stabilization.

Main Macro Events Today

• EU PMIs (EUR, GMT 08:00) – Manufacturing and Composite PMIs are expected to increase in April, to 47.9 and 51.8 respectively while the Services PMI is forecasted to have remained at 53.3.
• Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Retail Sales ex Fuel are expected to have increased to 4% y/y, compared to 3.8% y/y in March.
• Retail Sales ex Autos (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have increased to 0.4% in March, up from the negative 0.2% surprise in February.
• Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are forecasted to have registered an increase in Canada as well, to 0.2% compared to 0.1% in January.
• Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – Philly Fed index is expected to have eased to 10.3 compared to 13.7 in March.
• Markit PMIs (USD, GMT 13:45) – Mixed signals are expected from the PMI release, as Manufacturing is expected to have increased to 52.8 from 52.4, while the Services PMI is expected to have declined to 55 from 55.3.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 19th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th April 2019.

FX News Today

• Wall Street was higher overnight, with the Dow up 0.4% and outperforming on the back of strong retail sales data and better earnings from Travelers and American Express.
• Core European bourses were mixed, with the DAX up nearly 0.6%, the CAC 40 up 0.3%, and the FTSE slightly underwater.
• Japan released its March national CPI, which as expected remained well below the 2% BoJ’s target. The overall rose to 0.5% y/y from 0.2%, and the core is at 0.8% from the 0.7% y/y.
• The Japanese inflation supports once again the BoJ’s large-scale easy monetary policy.
• The US, Canada, the UK and several other European and Asian markets are closed for Good Friday, with Europe remaining shut for Easter Monday. Only Japan is open from the Asia trading centres.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

• EURUSD is still trading below the 1.13 level, retracing nearly 23% of yesterday’s losses. The April low of 1.1184, then the March 7 bottom of 1.1177 will be in the cross hairs in the coming sessions if we face a move below 1.1220.
• GBPUSD has been stable at the upper 1.29 level, still unable to break through 1.30, fluctuating between the 1.3006 and 1.2960, which are Resistance and Support (PP) level respectively. Indicators are giving negative signals.

Main Macro Events Today

• Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Both Building Permits and Housing Starts are expected to have increased in March, by 1.299M and 1.230M respectively, up from 1.291M and 1.162M in February.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.