Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 17th December 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th December 2018.

The Economic week ahead

Central bank meetings are the highlight, and include those of FOMC, BoE, BoJ, Bank Indonesia, Bank of Thailand, and Taiwan. Fed Chairman Powell is expected to play Santa Claus by delivering a 25 bp rate hike, wrapped in a dovish spin. Geopolitics remain important risk factors amid signs that tariff worries, Treasury curve inversions, China’s deceleration, Brexit uncertainties, Italy’s budget battles, and French riots are exacerbating a global slowing.

United States: The US calendar is dominated by FOMC meeting (Tuesday,Wednesday). Data is light and won’t factor materially into FOMC’s stance. FOMC is universally expected to deliver a 25 bps rate hike to increase the target band to 2.25% to 2.50%. Along with FOMC, there is also risk of a partial government shutdown at the end of the week. There won’t be any significant or meaningful impact on the economy from a temporary shutdown, but it could add to market nervousness and worries about the effects of reduced stimulus next year.

There are only a few tier one economic numbers this week and none will impact the FOMC decision. November personal income (Friday) is expected to rise 0.3% after a solid 0.5% pace in October. Consumption is expected to rise 0.3%. The December Empire State index (Monday) is expected to dip from 23.3 to 21.0. The Philly Fed index(Thursday) is seen rising to 19.0 in December from 12.9 in November. Housing data are on tap, and all the November reports face downside risk from adverse weather and the California fires, but upside risk as prior disaster distortions are unwound. November durable goods orders (Friday) should rebound 1.7% in November, after a 4.3% October drop. The third reading on Q3 GDP growth (Friday) is expected unchanged at a 3.5% rate, though slower than Q2’s 4.1% clip.

Canada: It is a busy calendar and features several top-tier reports. Manufacturing shipments (Tuesday) are expected to rise 0.5% in October after the 0.2% gain in September. The CPI (Wednesday) is seen falling 0.4% m/m (nsa) in November after the 0.3% gain in October, as a 10% plunge in gasoline prices pulls the CPI lower relative to October. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to grow 0.5% in October after the 0.2% rise in September. GDP (Friday)is anticipated to rebound 0.1% in October after the 0.1% drop in September. BoC’s winter Business Outlook Survey(Friday) is expected to reveal a still upbeat outlook, although some caution may seep in given the daily swings in sentiment on the global trade outlook.

Europe: This week’s round of data releases should on the whole back the cautious stance of the central bank. The December German Ifo Business Climate (Tuesday)is expected to fall back to 101.7 from 102.0 in November, with the expectations reading in particular under pressure. The manufacturing sector looking shaky again amid fresh challenges for the automobile sector, which continues to struggle with emissions standards and the lingering diesel scandal, which has considerably undermined confidence, especially in Germany, where consumers are facing driving bans without compensation from producers.

Eurozone consumer confidence and German GfK consumer confidence (both Friday), are also likely to show the strain of negative headlines and dissatisfaction with government policies, despite ongoing improvement on labour markets and the forecasts for lower readings. The final reading of Eurozone CPI (Monday) is expected to confirm the core rate at just 1.0% y/y. The headline rate remains much higher at 2.0%, but remains impacted by base effects from energy prices, which are also underpinning very strong rates in German producer prices (Wednesday) and import price (Friday). The busy calendar also includes Eurozone trade and current account data as well as French consumption numbers and the final reading of French Q3 GDP. There also is ECB speak from Hansson(Wednesday).

UK: It’s “crystal clear” — in the words of European Commission President Juncker on Friday — that there won’t be any renegotiation by the EU, other than a clarification of the deal on offer. This suggests that the Withdrawal Agreement from the EU is headed for eventual failure in the UK Parliament. The parliamentary vote will be January; date undecided, but before the legislated deadline of January 21.

The calendar this week is busy and includes BoE’s December Monetary Policy Committee meeting (Thursday).However, this should prove to be a non-event for markets as no changes are all but certain. Data releases will be of limited interest given the now intense distraction of Brexit and associated political uncertainty in the UK. Data releases will be highlighted by the November inflation report, where CPI is expected to ebb to 2.3% from 2.4%. November retail ales and the third and final release of Q3 GDP are also due (Thursday and Friday, respectively).

Japan: BoJ announces policy (Wednesday, Thursday) with no changes expected. The November trade report(Wednesday) should see the deficit widen to JPY 700.0 bln from 450.0 bln previously. But there is risk from a weaker oil import bill. The October all-industry index (Thursday) is seen rising 1.5% from the prior 0.9% decline. November overall CPI (Friday) is penciled in sliding to a 0.7% y/y pace, half of the prior 1.4%, and to 0.9% y/y from 1.0% on a core basis.

Australia: The employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 25.0k gain in November jobs after the 32.8k bounce in October. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5.0%. The minutes to RBA’s December meeting are due on Tuesday. RBA held rates steady at 1.50% at the December 4 meeting. There are not any RBA speakers scheduled through year-end.

New Zealand’s calendar has Q3 GDP (Thursday), expected to slow to a 0.5% pace from the 1.0% rate of expansion in Q2 (q/q, sa). The trade deficit (Thursday)is projected to narrow to -NZ$1,000 mln in November from -1,295 mln in October. The next RBNZ meeting is February 13, 2019.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th December 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th December 2018.

FX News Today

FX News Today

• The 20-year Treasury yields are down -1.3 bp at 2.814%, as the sell off in stock markets, continued during the Asian session. Topix and Nikkei are down -1.99% and -1.82% respectively.
• Dovish RBA minutes: No strong case for a change in monetary policy.
• China’s President Xi Jinping offered no fresh stimulus plans or a further opening of the economy in his keynote speech marking 40-years of Chinese reforms.
• Concern rises over the outlook for Chinese and World Growth amid ongoing trade tensions weighing on sentiment.
• US stock futures are slightly higher though as the Fed decision comes into view, with Powell expected to confirm that the central bank will switch from autopilot to data dependency on rate hikes after the widely expected move this week.
• USA500 closed at the lowest level in 14 months.
• Oil prices declined and the WTI future fell back to $48.93 per barrel, as risk of demand destruction hits prices.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• German Ifo Business Climate – Expectations – To fall back to 101.7 from 102.0 in November, with the expectations reading, in particular, under pressure. The manufacturing sector is looking shaky again amid fresh challenges for the automobile sector, which continues to struggle with emissions standards and the lingering diesel scandal, which has considerably undermined confidence, especially in Germany where consumers are facing driving bans without compensation from producers.
• US housing starts – Expectations – They are estimated slipping 0.2% to a 1.225 mln pace in November, after a 1.5% gain to 1.228 mln in October.
• Canadian Manufacturing shipments – Expectations – They are expected to rise 0.5% in October after the 0.2% gain in September.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 19th December 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th December 2018.

FX News Today

• In Asia, long yields dipped in tandem with Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.2 bp at 2.816%.
• Asian and European stock futures are mixed with all eyes on the Fed, with UK100 futures heading south, while GER30 futures are marginally higher. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.41% and -0.60%
• Oil prices fell to a low of just $46.10 before regaining some ground to now USD 46.50 per barrel.
• US budget update: Democrats rejected the bill offered by Senate Leader McConnell. Avoiding a government shutdown with a short-term spending bill before the holidays seems the most sensible solution, but this is the first major power play since the mid-term elections, which saw the House flip to the Democrats starting next year.
• Today, US futures gain following a mixed session for equities in Asia overnight.
• German producer price inflation came in higher than anticipated at 3.3% y/y.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• UK CPI – Expectations – The headline CPI is expected to ebb to 2.3% from 2.4%.
• BoC CPI and Core – Expectations – CPI is seen falling 0.4% m/m (nsa) in November after the 0.3% gain in October, as a 10% plunge in gasoline prices pulls the CPI lower relative to October. The CPI is seen slowing to a 1.8% y/y pace in November from the 2.4% clip in October, with gasoline prices again being the driver.
• FOMC Monetary policy and Conference – Expectations – A 25 bp tightening in the Fed funds rate is priced in. What will be key is what’s indicated about the 2019 rate trajectory.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 20th December 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th December 2018.

FX News Today

• 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.2 bp at 2.753%, JGB yields fell back -0.3 bp to 0.019%, and 10-year Bund yields are down -2.2 bp at 0.214% in early trade, with yield curves flattening after the Fed’s decision to go ahead with the rate hike.
• Topix and Nikkei still lost -2.51% and -2.84% respectively. The Hang Seng is down -1.26%, the CSI 3090 down -0.91% and the ASX -1.34%. US and European futures are also firmly in the red.
• Oil prices remained under pressure and February WTI is up from yesterday’s lows at USD 47.17 per barrel.
• Markets clearly take a much more pessimistic view on the global economic outlook than central banks and the stock sell-off that started after the Fed disappointed markets and wasn’t as dovish as markets had hoped deepened during the Asian session.
• The better than expected data out of Japan, where the All Industry Index improved 1.9% m/m was overlooked.
• BoJ left rates on hold and also sounded cautious, but with the Yen strengthening.
• Today, US futures gain following a mixed session for equities in Asia overnight.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Retail Sales – Retail Sales for November are expected to have declined to 2.3% y/y, compared to 2.7% in October, in view of increased uncertainty regarding Brexit.
• BoE Interest Rate Decision – BoE is not expected to make any interest rate changes as it is constrained by the overall Brexit progress and thus the interest rate is expected to remain at 0.75%.
• Jobless Claims and Philly Fed – Jobless Claims, both initial and continuing, are expected to register an increase this week, adding to worries about the US’s macroeconomic outlook. However, the Philly Fed index is expected to increase thus providing a mixed picture of the overall US economy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 21st December 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st December 2018.

FX News Today

• The sell-off in stock markets continued during the Asian session after another slide in US shares.
• Signs of fresh tensions in US-Sino relations, the risk of a partial government shutdown in the US and general angst about the health of the world economy, added further pressure in stock markets.
• Topix and Nikkei lost -1.91% and -1.11% respectively as a stronger Yen added to pressure.
• WTI is trading at just $46.21 per barrel.
• EURUSD has settled in the mid 1.1400s.
• Sterling has become directionally dormant following recent Brexit-related volatility, with the UK Parliament now in recess until the new year and London interbank markets thinning out into the Christmas break.
• German consumer confidence unexpectedly held steady at 10.4 in the advance January reading, despite all the negative headlines and the turmoil on markets.
• French GDP was unexpectedly revised down while outlook deteriorates

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• UK GDP – The 3rd and final release of Q3 GDP is expected the latter unrevised at 0.6% q/q.
• Canadian Retail Sales and GDP – Retail sales are projected to grow 0.5% in October after the 0.2% rise in September. The ex-autos sales aggregate is projected to gain 0.1% after nudging 0.1% higher. GDP is anticipated to rebound 0.1% in October after the 0.1% drop in September.
• US Personal Spending – November personal income is expected to rise 0.3% after a solid 0.5% pace in October. Consumption is expected to rise 0.3% , half of the 0.6% October gain.
• US Durable Goods and Final GDP – November durable goods orders should rebound 1.7% in November, after a 4.3% October drop. The third reading on Q3 GDP growth is expected unchanged at a 3.5% rate, though slower than Q2’s 4.1% clip.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 24th December 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th December 2018.

The Economic week ahead

Divergence between the rosier outlook on economic fundamentals of central banks and the darker omens signalled by the tightening up of the financial markets and deterioration in the commodity sector has grown.

Holiday-thinned staffing in Europe, Asia and the US in the first half of the week will severely curtail trade, though what this means for volatility is anyone’s guess.

United States:Christmas week will be light on the data front and will include consumer confidence, new home sales and the advance indicator numbers. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Monday) will be followed by the MBA Mortgage Market Report (Wednesday), along with the Case Shiller Home Price Index and Richmond Fed Index. Initial jobless claims (Thursday) are estimated declining 4k to 210k in the week ended December 22, after rising 8k to 214k in the week of December 15. Consumer confidence(Thursday) is expected to slip to 135.0 in December, from 135.7 in November and new home sales(Thursday)should rise 2.9% to 560k in November. EIA energy inventories are also due to be released. Advance indicators for December (Friday) should reveal an improvement in the trade balance for goods. NAR Pending Home Sales (Friday) may rebound to 103.0 in November from 102.1, while Chicago PMI(Friday) is set to sink to 61.0 in December from 66.4.

Canada: For Canada, activity picks up in the first week of 2019, with the December employment report due on January 4. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada until the January 9 policy announcement.

Europe: There aren’t many full trading days left for 2018, with German, Swiss, Scandi and many other European markets already closed on Monday for Christmas Eve and early closures in Paris and London, followed by a nearly full shutdown for Christmas on Tuesday as well as Wednesday. The shortened calendar week focuses on preliminary inflation data out of Germany and Spain on Friday. With import price inflation falling back sharply in November on the back of a sharp deceleration in energy price inflation we see the headline HICP rate for Germany falling back to just 1.9% y/y from 2.2% y/y in the previous month.

Meanwhile, the ECB’s economic bulletin on Thursday is likely to be a close repeat of Draghi’s introductory statement at the last press conference and still send a cautiously optimistic message on the outlook.

UK: London will be open for a half day on Monday before closing through to Thursday for the Christmas and Boxing Day holidays. Sterling markets will be as good as dormant until the new year, when the frustratingly unresolved Brexit solution will be back in sharp focus. The parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal and outline for a future relationship will take place in the week of January 14, before the legislated deadline of January 21.

Japan: Japan is closed Monday for Emperor’s Birthday. The economic calendar kicks off on Tuesday,with November services PMI (Tuesday), which is seen at a 1.2% y/y rate from 1.3%. The remainder of the docket comes on Friday and features December Tokyo CPI, which is expected to slow further to a 0.4% y/y pace, after sliding to 0.8% y/y in November from October’s 1.4% y/y. November unemployment is forecast at a steady 2.4%, with the job offers to seekers ratio unchanged at 1.62.

Australia: The calendar is empty in the final week of 2018, lacking economic releases or RBA speakers. The markets are closed Monday, Tuesday andWednesday for Christmas. The next RBA meeting is onFebruary 5, where no change to the 1.50% setting for the cash rate, is expected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27th December 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th December 2018.

FX News Today

• The Dollar and Yen have weakened moderately against most other currencies, though the Australian Dollar has been an exception, with the antipodean currency underperforming following a weak industrial profit figure out of China.
• opix and Nikkei closed with gains of 4.89% and 3.88% respectively, following gains of nearly 5% in the US stock markets.
• The stock market bounce, amid thin volumes, was due to US 2018 holiday sales rising by 5.1 percent from a year ago to over $850 billion, the strongest gain in six years.
• The stock market rally did not push through to China, as the Hang Seng lost early gains and is down -0.46% while Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp are down -0.17% and -0.15%. The CSI 300 is hanging on to a slight 0.13% gain.
• DAX and FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, but US futures are in slightly negative territory, indicating that markets remain fragile and oil prices erased some of yesterday’s jump, leaving the front end WTI future at USD 45.98 per barrel.
• Uncertainty also eased as words of confidence from President Trump’s economic adviser on Fed Chairman Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin helped to underpin risk appetite.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• ECB Economic Bulletin – The ECB Bulletin includes the statistical data that the ECB Board evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision and provides a detailed forecast and overview of the Euro Area economic conditions.
• US Jobless Claims – Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to have declined in the past week, while Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have increased, thus providing a mixed picture of the US economic outlook.
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence – The Consumer Confidence Index is expected to be lower than the previous month, albeit still significantly higher than 100, thus suggesting that growth will persist.
• US New Home Sales – New Home Sales are expected to have increased by 0.562 million in November, compared to 0.544 million in October, suggesting that the housing market is still growing.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 28th December 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th December 2018.

FX News Today

• 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.7 bp at 2.773%, 10-year JGB rates down -2.0 bp at -0.012%.
• Japanese stock markets underperformed with Topix and Nikkei losing 0.50% and 0.31% respectively, while most other equity markets managed to move higher after Wall Street closed with further gains. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.14% and 0.53% respectively, with the ASX managing to rise 1.02%.
• Weak data, which included a drop in headline inflation, weaker than expected retail sales and an unexpected slump in November production numbers underpinned JGBs and put pressure on local stock markets.
• USD declined on worse than expected Consumer Confidence and mixed Jobless Claims data, as well as due to rumours regarding an executive order banning US companies from using Huawei products.
• The Yen and the Swissy gained thanks to their safe haven status.
• US markets managed to recoup losses and close broadly higher.
• Oil prices are up from yesterday’s close and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 45.77 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• KOF Leading Indicator – The Composite Index of the Swiss economy is expected to show some signs of improvement and should stand at 99.5 in December, compared to 99.1 in November, still below the 100 mark indicating growth.
• Chicago PMI – While still remaining above 50, the December Chicago PMI is expected to come out worse than the November one, at 62, compared to 66.4 a month ago.
• Pending Home Sales – In conjunction with the mixed picture presented by the US economy, Pending Home Sales growth in November is expected to come out at -0.7%, compared to -2.6% in October.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27th December 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th December 2018.

FX News Today

• The Dollar and Yen have weakened moderately against most other currencies, though the Australian Dollar has been an exception, with the antipodean currency underperforming following a weak industrial profit figure out of China.
• opix and Nikkei closed with gains of 4.89% and 3.88% respectively, following gains of nearly 5% in the US stock markets.
• The stock market bounce, amid thin volumes, was due to US 2018 holiday sales rising by 5.1 percent from a year ago to over $850 billion, the strongest gain in six years.
• The stock market rally did not push through to China, as the Hang Seng lost early gains and is down -0.46% while Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp are down -0.17% and -0.15%. The CSI 300 is hanging on to a slight 0.13% gain.
• DAX and FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, but US futures are in slightly negative territory, indicating that markets remain fragile and oil prices erased some of yesterday’s jump, leaving the front end WTI future at USD 45.98 per barrel.
• Uncertainty also eased as words of confidence from President Trump’s economic adviser on Fed Chairman Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin helped to underpin risk appetite.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• ECB Economic Bulletin – The ECB Bulletin includes the statistical data that the ECB Board evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision and provides a detailed forecast and overview of the Euro Area economic conditions.
• US Jobless Claims – Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to have declined in the past week, while Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have increased, thus providing a mixed picture of the US economic outlook.
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence – The Consumer Confidence Index is expected to be lower than the previous month, albeit still significantly higher than 100, thus suggesting that growth will persist.
• US New Home Sales – New Home Sales are expected to have increased by 0.562 million in November, compared to 0.544 million in October, suggesting that the housing market is still growing.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 2nd January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd January 2019.

FX News Today

• Markets didn’t have a good start to 2019 as disappointing data out of China rekindled concerns about the health of the Chinese economy.
• China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory at 49.7, which together with the fact that both private and official PMIs suggest a correction in orders inflow saw investors heading for cover.
• Japan remained closed but Hang Seng and CSI 300 declined -2.68% and -1.38% respectively, while the ASX lost -1.57%.
• Chinese 10-year yields dropped -12.1 bp and stock futures in the US and Europe are also heading south, indicating wide spread losses for stock markets on the first trading day of the year.
• The broad market movement suggests a drop of the Dollar, as a cautious mood prevailed on the first trading day of the year on concerns over global growth, the US government shutdown and a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
• In addition, the worse than expected Dallas Fed index, which plunged to a 30-month low in the last day of the month also had its bearing on the Dollar.
• Oil prices also fell back and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 44.82 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• EU Markit Manufacturing PMI – The European manufacturing index is expected to have remained flat at 51.4 in December. Among the countries, the Italian and Spanish indices are expected to have decreased slightly, while it is expected to have remained similar for the rest of the large countries.
• UK Markit Manufacturing PMI – In the UK, manufacturing is expected to have deteriorated in December and stand at 52.5, compared to 53.1 in November.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 7th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th January 2019.

The Economic week ahead

Increased year-end volatility took a breather to kick off the first trading week of 2019. But after a streak of market pessimism with the major indices flirting with bear market losses, it would appear that upside surprise risks have prevailed for now.

This welcome turn of events was anchored by the “remarkably strong” jobs report that contradicted the financial markets’ worst fears about the deterioration of the economy that had virtually priced out further Fed rate hikes and even flagged risk of a rate cut by year end.

United States: US data on inflation and the ISM-NMI will be the focus in the week of January 7. However, due to the government shutdown, several of this week’s other releases may be delayed, including trade, factory orders, wholesale trade, construction spending, new home sales, and the advance indicators.

The Highlight is inflation, as that will be one of the prime movers of Fed policy going forward. Also key will be the ISM-NMI for the most up-to-date reading on the service sector. The NFIB small business optimism index is on tap (Tuesday), along with November JOLTS job openings (Tuesday), as well as consumer credit, seen rising $16 bln in November, compared to $25.4 bln in October. MBA mortgage market data arrives (Wednesday). Initial jobless claims (Thursday) are estimated to rise 5k to 236k in the week ended January 5 (Thursday), after climbing 10k to 231k in the week of December 29. The data are likely to be distorted by the government shutdown, along with the typical difficulty in holiday seasonal adjustments. The Treasury budget (Friday) may post a surplus of $5.0 bln in December, relative to a -$204.9 bln deficit in November.

Meanwhile, the rest of the economic calendar will be subject to the government shutdown. November factory orders (originally set for Monday) should post a 0.2% decline, with a flat reading for inventories. The November trade deficit (originally Tuesday) is expected to narrow to -$51.6 bln from -$55.5 bln. Wholesale inventories (originally Thursday) are seen falling 0.2% in November.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Powell will make another appearance this week before the Economic Club of Washington (Thursday), though there will be no text, only a moderated Q&A, no doubt reiterating the “patience and flexibility” formula that helped propel stocks higher Friday. The week rounds out (Thursday) with Richmond’s Barkin, Chicago’s Evans, St. Louis Fed’s Bullard and VC Clarida. The FOMC minutes (Wednesday) will be of interest, as the Fed hiked rates.

Canada: The BoC’s policy announcement (Wednesday) is the highlight this week. No change to the current 1.75% setting is expected for the policy interest rate amid a slowing economy, moderating inflation pressures and the hefty downside risk posed by weak oil prices to real sector growth.

Economic data has the November trade report (Tuesday) expected to reveal a -C$2.0 bln deficit in November from the -C$1.2 bln shortfall in October. Housing Starts (Wednesday) are seen falling to a 205.0k unit pace in December from 216.0k in November. Building Permit Values (Thursday) are projected to slip 0.5% in November after the 0.2% dip in October. The New Housing Price Index (Thursday) is anticipated to decline 0.1% in November (m/m, sa) after the flat readings in August, September and October. The December Ivey PMI is due Monday.

Europe: The ECB’s account of the last policy meeting (Thursday) is likely to reflect growing unease and there will have been broad support for the decision to phase out net asset purchases. The minutes aside, there is also ECBspeak from Villeroy (Thursday) and Mersch (Friday), who are likely to back the central bank’s official line.

The data calendar is busy and should support expectations for slowing economic momentum as global trade tensions and Brexit risks cloud over the outlook. The German November manufacturing orders (Monday) are seen falling -0.2% m/m, while industrial production (Tuesday) is seen rising a modest 0.3% m/m with a solid stock of orders still underpinning activity for now. Export growth is likely to have eased in November, but lower import prices should have helped to underpin the nominal trade balance which we expect to report a sa surplus of EUR 18.0 bln.

So far the labour market continues to improve as companies have a solid stock of orders to fill and an unchanged November unemployment rate is expected (Wednesday) of 8.1%. Improving labour markets and Black Friday sales, meanwhile are expected to have underpinned German and Eurozone retail sales (both Monday), which are seen up 0.4% m/m and 0.2% m/m respectively.

UK: The UK’s data calendar is relatively quiet, highlighted by November production data and monthly GDP data (Friday). The industrial output should recoup 0.2% m/m after dropping 0.6% m/m in October, while the y/y figure should come in at -0.7%. The BRC retail sales report for December will also be released (Thursday),which should affirm a robust holiday sales tally.

Japan: December Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) is seen dipping further to 42.5 from 42.9. The November Current Account surplus (Friday) should narrow to JPY 700 bln from 1,309 bln. December bank loan figures are also due Friday.

The China inflation data headline may show some further easing due to the drop in oil prices. December CPI (Thursday) is penciled in at a 2.0% y/y pace from 2.2% in November and 2.5% in September and October. December PPI (Thursday) is forecast at a 1.7% y/y rate from 2.7%. December loan growth and new Yuan loans are tentatively due Thursday, with the latter seen up CNY 800.0 bln from the prior CNY 1,250.0 bln increase.

Australia: The trade report (Tuesday) is seen revealing a widening in the surplus to A$2.5 bln in November from A$2.3 bln in October. Building approvals (Wednesday) are expected to fall 2.0% in November after the 1.5% decline in October. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to rise 0.2% in November after the 0.3% gain in October.

New Zealand: The next RBNZ meeting is February 13, 2019, in which no change to the current 1.75% setting for the OCR anticipated.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 8th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th January 2019.

FX News Today

• USDJPY has posted a six-day high at 109.00. Yen crosses have also remained buoyant amid a backstop of re-established risk appetite in global markets, in turn feeding an outperforming bid in Japanese equity markets, while the Dollar has concurrently firmed up a tad against most currencies after descending yesterday.
• 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.1 bp at 2.685% while 10-year JGB yields rose 1.8 bp to -0.08%.
• Asian bond as well as stock markets traded mixed, as the focus remains on US-China trade talks.
• A weaker Yen helped Japanese markets to outperform and Topix and Nikkei are up 0.39% and 0.82% respectively. The Hang Seng meanwhile is unchanged, CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.23% and -0.30% respectively, while the ASX closed with a gain of 0.69% and US and European stock futures are also moving higher. The front end WTI future is trading at USD 48.54 per barrel.
• Markets look a little less committed presently, wanting specifics from the ongoing US-China trade talks and a break in the partial government shutdown, the consequences of which are becoming more evident as time ticks on.
• The Trump administration expressed optimism of a “reasonable” deal and news that China dispatched one of Xi’s top aids to the low level negotiations in Beijing underpinned hopes of progress. The US Secretary of Commerce said yesterday that a deal can be reached that “we can live with.”
• Meanwhile US President Trump’s TV address today will be watched closely with investors hoping for clues on the possible end to the government shutdown.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• EU Business Climate Indicator – Business Climate is expected to have decreased to 0.99 in December, compared to 1.09 in November.
• US Trade Balance – Although less important than in other countries, the US trade balance still provides important information about the supply of Dollars in the world as well as the state of the US economy. In November, the trade deficit is expected to have stood at $54 billion, compared to $55.5 billion in October.
• Canadian Trade Balance – The Canadian trade deficit is expected to have increased to $1.95 billion, compared to $1.17 billion in October.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 9th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th January 2019.

FX News Today

• USDJPY retested 109.00 but has so far left yesterday’s one-week peak at 109.08 untroubled. Yen crosses have remained buoyant amid a backdrop of firm global equity markets.
• EURJPY and AUDJPY, meanwhile, have posted fresh one-week and 11-day highs, respectively.
• Topix and Nikkei are both up 1.1%, the Hang Seng rallied 2.4%, the CSI 300 1.68% and the ASX 0.98%.
• Hopes for a breakthrough in the US-China trade standoff continue to run high. Both sides agreed to extend talks into an unscheduled third day amid reports of progress on the issues of Chinese imports of US goods and increased access to Chinese markets, and Bloomberg cited sources reporting that President Trump, who tweeted that “talks are going very well,” is now eager to strike a deal.
• The MSCI Asia-Pacific (ex-Japan) Index has gained over 1.5%, reaching a 26-day high. The S&P 500 closed on Wall Street yesterday with a 0.97% gain, and S&P 500 futures are showing a 0.4% advance in overnight trading.
• After the soothing words from Powell last week markets will get the Fed minutes to digest today, but for now the mood in stocks is perky, with short coverings on the riskier assets underpinning the move higher and Hang Seng and mainland China bourses, which underperformed yesterday, outperformed today.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• Swiss CPI – Swiss inflation is expected to come out slightly lower than last month on a y/y basis, standing at 0.8% in December, compared to 0.9% in November.
• EU Unemployment Rate – The Euro Area unemployment rate is expected to have been 8.1% in November, the same as in October.
• BoC Interest Rate Decision – No change is expected in the BoC meeting despite the US rate hike in December, given the not-so-great data releases in December and early January.
• FOMC Minutes – Fed minutes are expected to shed more light on the policymakers’ mindset, especially regarding their thoughts on the US macroeconomic outlook.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 10th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th January 2019.

FX News Today

• Dovish leaning Fed speakers and minutes yesterday continue to underpin Treasuries.
• Bonds got support from reduced risk appetite.
• FOMC minutes: could afford to be patient, with inflation low;downside risks may have increased, the timing of future rate hikes as less clear.
• Trade talks between the US and China may have ended on an optimistic note, but traders fear that it could drag on for a long while. Nikkei lost -1.29% – Yen strengthened.
• Talks in the US to end the partial government shutdown collapsed.
• USDJPY reversed to 107.80 low from 109.0; EURUSD surged to 1.1559 high
• Solid session for Canadian stocks, tracking the bullishness around the world.
• GoC yields moved modestly higher as BoC delivered the as-expected steady rate announcement while reiterating rates will need to go higher “over time.”
• USDCAD slipped to nearly the 1.3200 level.
• WTI crude rallied 5% to $52.5 bbl despite mild EIA crude draw, product builds.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• ECB Minutes – Expectations – The ECB’s account is likely to reflect growing unease and while there will have been broad support for the decision to phase out net asset purchases, it is expected that even the hawks were not pushing for further exit steps just yet.
• US Initial jobless claims – Expectations – Initial jobless claims are estimated to rise 5k to 236k in the week ended January 5, after climbing 10k to 231k in the week of December 29.
• Canadian Housing data – Expectations – Building permit values are projected to slip 0.5% in November, while the new housing price index is anticipated to decline 0.1% in November after the flat readings the past 3 months.
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech at 17:00 GMT.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 11th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th January 2019.

FX News Today

• Fed officials continue to pledge patience after Fed Chair Powell noted the balance sheet will be “substantially smaller”.
• ECB minutes confirmed decision to end QE was unanimous.
  • On the growth risks, there seems to have been a debate on the impact of weaker confidence indicators, with some mixed views.
• The Central banks are increasingly wary of downside risks and their cautious messages support both stock and bond markets.
• US equities stumbled after trade talks ended with few details for all the prior rejoicing, while a handful of year-end stumbles in the retail sector were noteworthy.
• European stock futures are moving higher, after a largely positive session in Asia overnight.
• US futures are also clawing back overnight losses with cautious comments from Fed and ECB officials supporting both bond and stock markets.
• WTI crude is holding gains and trading at USD 52.56 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production – Expectations –Industrial output is expected to have recouped 0.2% m/m after dropping 0.6% m/m in October, while the y/y figure should come in at -0.7%. Manufacturing production should rise to 0.3% m/m, after the fall to 0.9% last month due mainly to weakness from transport equipment.
• US CPI and Core – Expectations – It is widely anticipated that we will see an energy-depressed -0.1% reading for headline CPI in December, but a warmer 0.2% gain for core prices.

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 15th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th January 2019.

FX News Today

• Risk appetite picked up during the Asian session amid further confirmation from Chinese officials that they will implement measures to boost the flagging economy.
• Equities recovered as China pledges to support growth.
• Brexit: The most important day so far, with Parliament set to reject the government’s deal.
• GBPUSD whipsawed by Brexit vote news; first backed, then undermined.
• Yen has outperformed as global stocks tumble on big China trade data miss.
• EURUSD ebbed to 5-day low at 1.1437, before rebounding to 1.1485.
• Oil prices stabilised and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 51.23 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• US PPI and Core – Expectations – December headline PPI is forecast dipping 0.1%, while the core rises 0.1%.
• ECB President Draghi Speech – Draghi will probably strike a cautious tone and acknowledge that the balance of risks is starting to shift to the downside.
• Parliament Brexit Vote- Expectations –There seems be neither an agreement on PM May’s deal, nor on any of the feasible alternatives. And reportedly, EU officials who are not keen on a hard Brexit scenario are open to a 3-month extension to the Brexit schedule. See our Brexit Vote summary.

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th January 2019.

FX News Today

• UK PM May survived no-confidence vote by 325 to 306. GBP stalled below $1.29.
• EU officials have signalled some willingness for further talks and to an extension of the Brexit deadline.
• Stock markets have moved down from session highs, as caution still prevails amid the multitude of risks: Earnings season ( even if its good so far) , concerns over US-Sino tensions, slowing world growth, while Brexitdevelopments remain the key focus in Europe.
• Fed’s Beige Book: expansion still moderate, but all districts reported tight labor.
• USDJPY scaled to 1-wk high at 109.19; EURUSD has been narrowly orbiting 1.14.
• WTI future pulled back from a session high of $52.36 and is trading at USD 51.95 per barrel, with record high crude production in the US keeping a lid on prices.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• Eurozone’s Final CPI and Core – Expectations – Overall Eurozone HICP should be stable at 1.6% y/y, unchanged from the preliminary report and down from 1.9% y/y in November.
• US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The Philly Fed index is seen rebounding to 10.0 in January, after December’s 3.5 point slide to a 2-year low of 9.4.
• US Unemployment Claims – Expectations – Initial jobless claims are estimated inching up 1k to 217k in the week ended January

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th January 2019.

FX News Today

• Treasury yields jumped and global stock markets rallied on fresh hopes of progress in US-Sino trade talks.
• WSJ reported that the US is weighing lifting tariffs to hasten a trade deal and calm markets.
• Topix and Nikkei are up 0.93% and 1.29% respectively. GER30 and UK100futures also moved higher in tandem with US futures.
• US Equities also surged on Morgan Stanley earnings miss.
• USDJPY popped to better than 2-week highs of 109.40. USDCAD fell sharply to 1.3246 from over 1.3300.
• Swiss Franc down vs most currencies, following dovish remarks by SNB’s Jordan – “too early for a change” as he mentioned.
• Global trade developments and, in Europe, Brexit developments, remain in focus.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Retail Sales – Expectations – December retail sales are expected to decline by 0.7% (median -0.5%) after rising 1.4% in November.
• US Industrial Production & Prelim UoM – Expectations – Industrial Production is seen rising another 0.3% in December after a solid 0.6% gain in November. Preliminary January Michigan sentiment should decline to 96.0 after the surprise increase to 98.3 in December.
• Canadian CPI and core – Expectations – A 0.3% m/m drop in CPI during December is anticipated, after the 0.4% plunge in November, with weaker gasoline prices again projected to fuel the decline. The core CPI measures all ran at 1.9% y/y in November, while inflation should either hold at those rates or tick lower.
• Fedspeak: NY Fed’s Williams (permanent voter) gives his views on policy and the economy. Philly Fed’s Harker (nonvoter) speaks at a symposium on prosperity.

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 21st January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st January 2019.

FX News Today

• Asian stock markets managed to post modest gains, despite the confirmation of the slowdown in Chinese GDP growth to 6.4% y/y, which left the full year rate at 6.6%.
• Topix and Nikkei are up 0.56% and 0.26% respectively, and the Hang Seng gained 0.27%, while the CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are both up 0.5%.
• Hope that trade tensions will eventually be resolved in talks continues to underpin sentiment, with some room for further gains after markets priced in quite extreme risks at the end of last year.
• Reports from Friday indicate that China is planning to ramp up purchases of US goods although a Bloomberg report suggests that both sides are making little progress on the key issue of intellectual property protection.
• All of these dampened the move higher in Asia and saw US futures heading south.
• The front end Nymex future is trading at USD 53.99 per barrel after reaching a session high of USD 54.17.
• There is a US Bank Holiday today, with emphasis turned to Sterling.

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 23rd January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd January 2019.

FX News Today

• 10-year Treasury yields are down from overnight highs, but still up 0.7 bp at 2.746%, and 10-year JGB yields climbed 0.8 bp to -0.004%.
• Stock markets remained cautious during the Asian session.
• The Bank of Japan held policy steady, as expected, while further reducing its outlook for inflation. The resulting weakness in the Yen didn’t help stock markets and Topix and Nikkei dropped -0.60% and -0.14% respectively.
• The Hang Seng is also down -0.04%, despite mainland China markets initially moving higher as China’s central bank pumped liquidity into the banking system once again. Still, the measures are also a sign that officials are nervous about the slowdown in the economy and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.24% and -0.13%. The bank offered around 258 bln Yuan (USD 38 bln) to banks through its medium term lending tool.
• Markets continue to question the progress in the US-Sino trade talks, even though White House adviser Lawrence Kudlow said that the trade talks are still on and the story about cancelled preparatory meetings was “not true, there was never any meeting. We are moving toward negotiations.” The negotiations next week will be “very, very important” and “determinative”.
• Meanwhile, there are the first signs of a possible way out of the US government shutdown.
• Markets remain easily spooked, but appear to have already priced in a lot of risk last year and US stock futures are moving higher after yesterday’s sell off. Oil prices are trading at USD 53.27 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• Canadian Retail Sales – After Wholesale Sales plummeted yesterday, Canadian Retail Sales are expected to have also declined by 0.4% m/m, with core Retail Sales (ex autos) expected to have declined by 0.6%.
• World Economic Forum at Davos –The second day of the WEF annual meetings held in Davos and attended by officials from over 90 countries. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility.
• Richmond Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The index is expected to have remained at a sub-zero level, standing at -2 after the -8 in the December release.

Support and Resistance Levels

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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

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