Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 30th June 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 30th JUNE 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

The Swiss National Bank has confirmed it engaged in a currency intervention yesterday in EURCHF as the bank sees CHF being too expensive versus EUR (EURCHF being too low). This supported both EURCHF and to certain degree other EUR pairs in yesterday’s trading. As a result EURUSD moved through the resistance level at 1.1130 and spike up to 1.1278 before falling down again. As per EURUSD futures today’s trading has been careful with light volumes after yesterday’s strong volatility. Strong movement higher from a support suggests that there is further upside ahead in EURUSD. I am seeing intraday support between 1.1110 and 1.1140 while significant daily support and resistance levels are at 1.1006 and 1.1292.

According to ECB’s Coeure Grexit can no longer be excluded. The executive board member said in France’s les Echos that a Greek exit from the Eurozone can unfortunately no longer be excluded, even if the ECB and Eurozone institutions want Greece to stay. Coeure said the European proposals gave Greece time and autonomy to take reform steps, adding that it was Greece’s decision to end the negotiations. Coerue also said that a “No” in the referendum would make it very difficult to continue the political dialogue.

Many commentators are now asking what Greece will be voting on this Sunday. For EU Commission President, the July 5 referendum will be a vote on Greece’s future in Europe, for the Greek opposition it is a vote on EMU membership, but for Tsipras and Syriza it is a way to change bailout terms. The Greek government is still selling a “No” to the creditor’s bailout offer as a chance to get improved conditions, but in reality, the offer will likely no longer be on the table on July 5 and without a bailout program in place the ECB will have difficulties defending its ongoing ELA assistance, which effectively turns it into a lender of last resort and the financier of the Greek government, something the Eurozone treaties clearly rule out. For now Draghi just decided to freeze the amount of ELA, but with the bailout program running out tomorrow, the ECB’s review of the situation on Wednesday could not only end re-financing for Greek banks, but also the Greek government, at least within the Eurozone system.

Yesterday US Dallas Fed manufacturing index improved to -7.0 in June after falling to -20.8 in May. This is a 6th consecutive month that the regional index has been in contractionary territory (below zero), which is mainly a function of the recession in the oil sector. US pending home sales rose 0.9% to 112.6 in May, it’s a 5th straight monthly gain, from a revised 2.7% increase April to 111.6 (was 112.4). Regionally, sales were up in the Northeast (6.3%) and West (2.2%), but lower in the Midwest (-0.6%) and South (-0.8%). Compared to last year, sales are up 8.3% y/y from 12.6% y/y.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

All currencies have been losing ground against the JPY today as EUR has been falling against everything else but weak NZD. This speaks of need to find a safe haven. With GBP and AUD having mixed performances EUR uncertainty and a need safe haven definitely are the main themes for today. The way to participate in this action is to trade EURJPY which is down by over 1.20% at the time of writing.

The biggest movers at the time of writing are NZDUSD, EURJPY, GBPNZD, AUDNZD, NZDJPY.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

German May retail sales rose 0.5% m/m, against expectations for a correction from the strong April number, which showed sales up 1.3% m/m. Still, the three months trend rate continues to decelerate from the peak of 2.4% back in February and the annual rate fell into negative territory.

Switzerland’s KOF leading indicator much weaker than expected at 89.7 in the headline reading for June. This is well down on the Bloomberg median forecast of 93.7 and also down from the 93.1 reading of May. The unexpected reversal will be a concern for Swiss policymakers given the sharp appreciation of the franc earlier in the year. The SNB confirmed that it intervened in the currency market yesterday, buying EURCHF.

German June jobless numbers dropped 1K, less than expected, as unemployment ticked slightly higher in West Germany. The seasonally adjusted jobless rate remained unchanged at a very low 6.4%, but the data highlights that the slowing down in economic momentum, that showed up in the surveys in recent months, is starting to have an impact on the labour market.

Eurozone CPI TheCore CPI was confirmed as forecast at 0.8% in June. A 0.2% rise from 0.6% in May while the headline number came in at 0.2% after being flat in May.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 1st July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 1st July 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD found support at the lower end of my support range (1.1110 – 1.1140) yesterday and was moving sideways inside this range overnight. At the time of writing price is again at intraday support at 1.1100 after reacting higher from it earlier today. I have been expecting today’s trading being limited between 1.1100 support and resistance at 1.1201 as market participants wait to see how the Greek drama develops but there seems to be no momentum from this support. Therefore the emphasis will be on watching the price action at current levels in order to see if buyers are stepping in or out of the way. Weekly picture suggests that EURUSD could be range bound between 1.0955 and 1.1466 for several weeks unless something extraordinary and unexpected happens. Significant daily support and resistance levels are at 1.1006 and 1.1292.

Greece defaulted on its IMF repayment yesterday and today Tsipras is prepared to to accept bailout conditions. Greece’s latest letter to creditors says Greece is “prepared to accept this Staff Level Agreement subject to the following amendments, additions or clarifications as part of the extension of the expiring EFSF program and the new ESM Loan Agreement”. The FT reports that the two page letter was sent as a clarification to yesterday’s surprise ESM loan request. The Eurogroup will discuss it in a teleconference at 15.30GMT today. The mentioned amendments are reportedly are only a handful of minor changes. If confirmed, this will clearly help the ECB to extent ELA assistance for now and the referendum may be called off.

German Finance Minister Schaeuble is still taking tough line on Greece, saying the letter from Tsipras that accepted most of the bailout conditions lacks clarity and that Greece’s proposals still aren’t a basis for serious measures. The euro has given back most of the gains it saw following the earlier news of the Tsipras letter.

An IMF default would not have necessarily meant a cut off in ELA, which so far has only been frozen at last week’s level, as according to earlier Reuters reports citing an ECB official Greek banks could still have ruled to be solvent for up to 5 days after the non-payment to the IMF. However, without a bailout program in place and no clear hope of another one, Draghi would likely have faced growing resistance in the council with Weidmann already questioning previously if ongoing emergency assistance doesn’t violate the prohibition of direct government financing through the ECB. This will still be the case, but if both sides are at least negotiating again, Draghi will unlikely want to be the one to pull the plug, at least for now.

Yesterday US consumer confidence surged to 101.4 in June from 94.6 in May (revised down from 95.4). It ties the March reading, and is the second highest print this year, bested only by the 103.8 in January. The latter was the highest since June 2007. The present situations component rose to 111.6 from 107.1 (revised from 108.1). The expectations index was 94.6 from 86.2 previously (revised from 86.9). The labor market differential improved to -4.3 versus -6.6. The 12-month inflation gauge edged uo to 5.1% from 5.0% (revised from 5.1%).

Fed’s Fischer said the FOMC will consider hiking rates in coming months, but did’t elaborate on the timing. The Fed VC, speaking on Monetary Policy in the US and in Developing Countries from Oxford University, added the the economy likely warrants only gradual moves and that the Fed is mindful of the risks of premature tightening. Growth should accelerate to about a 2.5% pace in Q2, and the pickup in the economy should further tighten the labor market. The dollar has been a significant headwind to growth. The Fed will monitor spillover effects in emerging markets.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

At the time of writing there has been no strong movement in most of the pairs. CHF has lost some ground and NZD moved against other currencies after being weak yesterday. NZDJPY has moved against the prevailing trend and is now close to levels (83.50) it could sell off again (currently trading at 83.28). EURNZD is trading at intraday support but is close to a weekly resistance level at 1.6445. GBPNZD has also retraced to a support level at 2.3050 and is trading higher now. GBPCHF is trading close to 1.4795 resistance while AUDCHF is trading also near resistance and upper daily Bollinger Bands.

Significant support and resistance levels for NZD pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

China’s manufacturing PMI numbers came in short of expectations. The HSBC/Markit PMI slipped to a final 49.4 in June from the preliminary or flash 49.6 reading, but did manage to top the 49.2 seen in May. The official manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in June from 50.9 in May. The contractionary reading for the HSBC/Markit PMI and the erosion in the official PMI highlight the ongoing difficulties in China’s economy. The Shanghai composite is hovering around unchanged.

UK Markit manufacturing PMI is expected to improve to 52.5 (median same) and the Swiss PMI to pick up to 49.9 from 49.7, although after Tuesday’s KOF miss there has to be a risk to the downside and it seems the strong currency is having more of a negative impact than feared.

US Manufacturing ISM. The June ISM is out on Wednesday and should show an increase to 53.0 (median 53.1) from 52.8 in May. Other measures for the month have generally improved and we expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures to climb to 53 for the month after holding at 51 in both May and April. It appears that producers have adjusted to the hit from falling oil prices over the winter and are once again feeling more confident.

U.S. Construction Spending. May construction data is out Wednesday and is expected to remain unchanged (median 0.3%) following a 2.2% bounce in April and a 0.5% clip in March. There is some downside risk that mixed housing data for May could weigh on the report.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 2nd July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 2nd July 2015.

EURUSD, 60 min

EURUSD didn’t attract enough buyers yesterday but traded lower on slightly better than expected US macro releases. The pair moved all the way down to support at 1.1032 and is after failed push higher the pair is moving sideways. The pair is still trending lower in a downward regression channel and a breakout accompanied with a higher low is needed to change the picture more positive. The next intraday resistance at 1.1095 is fairly close and coincides with the Bollinger Bands while 50 period SMA is currently at 1.1132. Move closer to May 27th pivotal low looks likely if EURUSD stays in the channel today but the proximity of Monday’s low should slow the tempo. Important daily support and resistance levels are at 1.0937 and 1.1135.

Eurozone markets are bouncing back and Bund and Gilt futures are under pressure as safe haven flows receded on hopes of a Greek deal, but the risk of another set back remains high. The Greek referendum is still on and with Tsipras still calling for a “No” to the last creditor offer, Eurozone officials decided to hold off any future talks until the referendum is through. It looks like the yes camp is shrinking amid the banking closure, but Tsipras continues to sell the vote as a chance to get a better deal, while Eurozone officials see it as a vote on Eurozone membership. The latter would get a resounding “Yes”, but that is not how the referendum will be worded. For now the ECB is keeping the Greek banks and implicitly the government afloat with ongoing ELA assistance, but the question is how long Draghi will be able to maintain the Greek banks are essentially solid.

Yesterday’s US reports revealed upside surprises across the ISM, ADP, and construction spending figures, though vehicle sales are posting a 3% June drop-back from a May cycle-high that trimmed the day’s good news. For construction, we had revisions back through 2013 that lifted the construction trajectory into Q2 after what is now a smaller winter-weather hit, hence lifting growth prospects despite restraint in new home construction. The ISM popped to 53.5 from 52.8 with a employment spike to 55.5 from 51.7, while ADP posted a solid 237k June rise that defied the typical downward bias in as-reported ADP figures.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

Yesterday, I pointed out that NZDJPY was at levels it could sell off again. At the time of writing NZDJPY is trading 0.61% below yesterday’s close. NZD is also down against EUR as EURNZD has been rising (up 0.95%) from the support identified in yesterday’s report. GBPNZD has been another nice runner since the publication of my report yesterday, up by 0.80% from yesterday’s close.

This morning AUD weakness against everything else but NZD sticks out while USD and EUR are seeing some strength against the majors. GBP and JPY have mixed performance.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for AUD pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of June 27th is out Thursday and we expect to see the headline remain about steady at 270k (median 272k) from 271k in the week prior. Claims have generally improved in June and look poised to leave a 272k average for the month following a 274k average in May.

US Factory Goods Preview: May factory goods orders are out on Thursday and should reveal a 0.5% (median -0.5%) decline for orders with shipments up 0.4% and inventories down 0.1% for the month. This follows respective April figures of -0.7% for orders, flat for shipments and 0.1% for inventories. Data in line with our forecast should leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.34 for a third month.

US Non-Farm Payrolls: June employment data is out on Thursday and should reveal a 230k (median 230k) headline employment increase following a 280k bounce in May. We expect the unemployment rate to tick down to 5.4% (median 5.4%) from 5.5% in May.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 7th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 7th July 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

After a smaller than previous gap opening EURUSD rallied to a resistance at Friday’s close and turned lower as the buyers failed to challenge the sellers at the resistance. Trading Greek related politics is difficult, if not impossible and that leaves us with technicals. Technically EURUSD is inside a potential support area but still relatively close to a weekly low from two weeks ago (1.1130) and is now trading outside the upward trend channel. This and the lower high in mid-June suggest that the pair might come lower this week. Current trading takes place just above a support (1.0948) but there isn’t much upside momentum and the nearest resistance at 1.1032 isrelatively close. This should dampen the bulls’ readiness to bid the prices higher. This could lead to sideways trading today. Daily support and resistance levels: 1.0930 and 1.1135.

European markets in general are holding their breath ahead of today’s Eurogroup and EU leaders meetings. Bund and Gilt yields continue to decline as stocks remain under pressure, although losses on FTSE and DAX remain limited so far and peripheral Eurozone 10-year yields outside of Greece came off yesterday’s highs. Officials stress that they want to keep Greece in the Eurozone, but also that that still requires firm reform commitments from Greece. So all eyes are once again on Tsipras and his new Finance Minister.

The latter may represent more of a change in style than substance, however, and it remains unclear what proposals both will bring to Brussels. What is clear is that with the ECB tightening the pressure by raising the haircut on Greek collateral substantially today’s round of meetings really represent Greece’s last chance to prevent default and Grexit.

Greece’s last chance to come to an agreementand avoid bankruptcy is a quick deal or at least the firm progress of one at today’s Eurogroup meeting that will be followed by an EU summit in the evening. Hollande and Merkel stressed again yesterday that time is running out and the ECB tightened the pressure on banks by raising the haircut on Greek collateral – reportedly to 45%. Banks will remain closed today and tomorrow, but without a deal it will be almost impossible to open them again quickly and the government will likely face troubles at tomorrow’s T-bill auction. Grexit will almost become inevitable. If there is a deal, ECB’s Nowotny suggested that the ECB could provide bridge financing. So once again all hinges on Greece’s proposals and its willingness to compromise.

ECB also lifted haircut on Greek collateral, while maintaining ELA assistance to Greek banks for now. The decision will increase pressure on Greece ahead of today’s Eurogroup meeting and EU summit. It will also put local banks in a difficult position ahead of Wednesday’s T-Bill sale. The Greek government has been relying on rolling over T-bills to keep afloat, with Greek banks and institutions the only takers. With the fresh increase on the haircut, it will be increasingly costly for Greek banks to hold Greek government debt.

US June ISM services index edged up to 56.0 from May’s 55.7 as per yesterday’s release. However the 57.8 in April is still the highest of the year, while the 58.8 in November was cycle high since November 2005. However, components were mixed. The employment index fell to 52.7 from 55.3. New orders rose to 58.3 from 57.9, while new export orders declined to 52.0 from 55.0. Prices paid slid to 53.0 from 55.9. Also, US Markit services PMI fell to 54.8 in the final June print versus May’s 56.2 (and 54.8 June preliminary). It’s the lowest since January’s 54.2 and reflects continued slowing in the expansion. A year ago the reading was 61.0. Employment slid to 54.1 versus 55.5 in May, though the expansion in the job sector has persisted for 64 straight months. The composite index dropped to 54.6 from 56.0 in May (and 54.6 for the June preliminary). It is also the lowest since January.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

We’ve seen USD and JPY strength today together with some movement in favour of CHF which suggests that there is a tendency to look for a safe haven. This is understandable with Greek drama continuing and global stock markets being weak, especially the Chinese stocks. EUR has been slightly weak almost across the board but has taken a hammering against the USD and JPY. With GBP and AUD the the storyline is very similar.

Main Macro Events Today

German industrial production unchanged over the month in May, with April revised down to 0.6% m/m from 0.9% m/m reported initially. The annual rate jumped to 2.1% y/y from 1.1% y/y in the previous month. Yesterday’s orders number also showed a sharp uptick over the year, but confidence indicators already suggest that the momentum is running out of steam. At the same time the tight German labour market has led to a wave of industrial actions and sizeable wage gains. This year consumption may be able to sustain ongoing growth, but the likely loss of competitiveness could well lead to German underperformance in coming years.

UK industrial production unexpectedly rose by 0.4% m/m (median -0.2%) in May after 0.3% growth in April (revised from 0.4%). The y/y figure registered 2.1% growth (median 1.6%), up from 1.2% in the previous month. A solid 7.3% rise in oil and gas production was behind the strength. The narrower manufacturing outlook data, which is more reflective of economic trends, disappointed, unexpectedly falling 0.6% m/m (Bloomberg median +0.1%), worsening from April’s -0.6% m/m figure. The y/y figure was +1.0% y/y (Bloomberg median 1.8%) after 0.1% in April (revised down from 0.2%). Sterling initially spiked on the strong industrial headline, but has since dropped to net lower levels against both the dollar and euro as markets disgust the weak manufacturing output data.

US Trade Balance: The May trade deficit is expected to narrow 5.8% to -$38.5 bln after narrowing 19.2% to -$40.9 bln in April. Exports in May are expected to grow 1.0% while imports show a -0.2% decrease on the month. Forecast risk: upward, as depressed oil prices could impact imports. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data would push back rate hike assumptions.

US Consumer Credit: The May consumer credit report is out on today and should reveal a $18 bln (median $18.5 bln) increase for the month following a $20.5 bln increase in April and a $21.3 bln gain in March. Over the past year the headline has averaged $18.2 bln, about in line with our forecast.

EU Extraordinary Summit

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 8th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 8th July 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD traded between the nearest support and resistance levels yesterday as was expected. The 1.0930 support attracted buyers and after printing a low of 1.0916 price rallied to 1.1052. Weekly pivot bar from end of May has been providing support but at the time of writing there are no definite signs of price reversing the current downtrend. Price is trending lower in a 4h 2 stdv regression channel and is at the time of writing near channel high and not that far from 1.1048 resistance level. The nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.0930 and 1.1048.

Greece gets until Sunday to reach a deal. Euro group and EU leaders meeting yesterday once again failed to reach an agreement with Greece amid a lack of concrete proposals from Tsipras. Greece is expected to present a formal request for ESM aid today and Euro group ministers will hold a conference call to discuss the proposals that are expected to be laid out in the request. The final deadline to reach an agreement at technical level seems to be Friday and a deal must be reached at a summit on Sunday. German Chancellor Merkel said she was not particularly optimistic and EU Commission President Juncker said Grexit scenarios have been prepared in detail. The ECB meanwhile stands ready to try and limit contagion. It seems this time the game really will be up Sunday if there is no miracle.

Eurogroup and EU summit yesterday once again didn’t get very far amid the lack of new proposals from Greece. EU President Tusk was left to say that a formal request for ESM aid was expected today, Thursday at the latest, while stressing the strict conditionality of ESM treaties. So if Tsipras thought by not extending the bailout and going to the ESM instead he would get more leeway he will have been disappointed. Greece said it will send a formal request for ESM aid today, while EU’s Dombrovkis said Greece was ready to present reform proposals tomorrow.

In an unusually clear way Tusk set Sunday as the very last deadline for a deal with Greece, while urging both sides to work together to come to an agreement. German Chancellor Merkel was not very optimistic however and EU Commission President Juncker said detailed Grexit scenarios have been prepared. The ECB meanwhile continues to stand ready to limit the fallout from the Greek crisis.

U.S. JOLTS report showed job rose 29k in May after a 225k increase in April to 5,363k (revised from 267k to 5,376k). The job openings rate was steady at 3.6 (April was nudged down from 3.7%). Hirings fell 34k following a revised 54k drop in April (was -81k). The rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6% (April revised up from 3.5%). There was a 10k decline in quitters after a 60k drop previously (revised from -100k). The quit rate was unchanged at 1.9%. The May data won’t have market impact.

U.S. trade deficit widened 2.9% to $41.9 bln in May, after narrowing 19.5% to -$40.7 bln in April (revised from -$40.9 bln). Imports dipped 0.1% following the 3.3% April decline. Exports slid 0.8% after the 1.1% gain in April (revised from 1.0%). Excluding petroleum, the trade balance fell to -$36.1 bln from -$33.9 bln in April (revised from -$34.1 bln).

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

This morning the strongest movers have been among the AUD and JPY pairs. AUD weakness has been mirrored by JPY strength. This makes sense as Chinese stock market has been plummeting over the last couple of weeks and today Hang Seng Composite is down by 8%, a massive move that really tells about panic over Chinese stock market. China is a huge consumer of copper and iron ore that Australia produces and any problems in the economy are likely to have a major impact on Australia. Thus the weakness in AUD while JPY is up due to its safe haven status.

Key support and resistance levels in AUDJPY: 88.25 and 90.48 and NZDJPY 79.89 and 85.32

Main Macro Events Today

EU Extraordinary Economic Summit: Greece is expected to present a formal request for ESM aid today and Eurogroup ministers will hold a conference call to discuss the proposals that are expected to be laid out in the request.

FOMC Minutes: The Fed is expected to be more optimistic about the US economy reaching their 2% inflation target. We are also likely to see some optimism on personal consumption.

US Consumer Credit: The May consumer credit report is out on today and should reveal a $18 bln (median $18.5 bln) increase for the month following a $20.5 bln increase in April and a $21.3 bln gain in March. Over the past year the headline has averaged $18.2 bln, about in line with our forecast.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 9th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 9th July 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD has found support at a weekly pivot candle and moved closed above the previous day’s high yesterday making this candle a new pivot. The pair rose slightly after yesterday’s close and has at the time of writing failed to challenge the trend channel bottom and a resistance level at 1.1117. This level is not far from a weekly low at 1.1130 and therefore made buyers hesitant. This level also coincided with the upper Bollinger Bands in a 4h chart. Market has been now moving lower after a 60 min rejection candle at 1.1170 resistance was created. I am seeing support at 1.0957 to 1.0976. Significant daily support and resistance levels: 1.0930 and 1.1135.

European stocks rose slightly yesterday and futures are pointing to a higher opening today, while core bond yields rose and peripheral yields declined following Greece’s formal request for a 3-year ESM loan program. The details of the promised reform plans were once again missing though and the risk is another setback, if today’s reform list once again falls short of expectations. For many Grexit becomes the main scenario now.

FOMC minutes revealed concerns over Greece and China, among other considerations, that encouraged a steady policy stance, as was evident in the policy statement and other materials. While views on the economy and labor market were generally upbeat, as Q1 sluggishness was attributed to temporary factors and seasonal adjustment issues, there were offsetting elements that reflected a very cautious group of policymakers. A number of officials warned against premature tightening and wanted to see stronger conditions before pulling the trigger. It was also stressed that policy decisions would be on a meeting-by-meeting basis. With the Greek and Chinese situations having eroded further since the June 16, 17 meeting, the FOMC may be even more gun-shy about liftoff, adding to market speculation the Fed could remained sidelined in September. We’ll wait for Yellen’s upcoming comments, as well as data, before we shift out of our September forecast.

Yesterday’s US consumer credit climbed $16.1 bln in May after a $21.4 bln April surge (revised up from $20.5 bln). Non revolving credit paced the strength with a $14.5 bln increase versus the $12.9 bln gain in April (revised from $11.9 bln). Revolving credit was up $1.6 bln versus the prior $8.5 bln print (revised from $8.6 bln).

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

After yesterday’s strong movements in favour of JPY we are now seeing a rather strong reversal. This suggests that the need for safe haven did go a bit too far in some of the JPY pairs. CADJPY for instance reached a daily pivot candle from March and is reacting strongly higher from it. GBPJPY hit a weekly pivot high from February this year and bounced higher. USDJPY found support from a range formed in May but has resistance above. There should be more volatility and trading opportunities in these pairs over the coming days.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

China’s CPI grew at a 1.4% y/y pace in June, better than expected following the 1.2% pace in May that was the slowest pace since January’s 0.8% growth rate. CPI was a year peak of 1.5% y/y in April.

Australia’s employment rose 7.1k in June, contrary to an expected dip after a revised 40.0k gain in May (was +42.0k) The unemployment rate rose to 6.0% in June but from a revised 5.9% in May, leaving an unemployment rate that undershot expectations in June.

BoE Interest Rates Decision. Bank of England is expected to maintain the current level of interest rate at 0.5%. The BoE should once again announce a no-change outcome, which would be a non-event for markets as the central bank doesn’t normally issue statements after unchanged decisions, so we’ll have to wait until the minutes are published on Jul-22 for insight.

US Initial Jobless Claims are expected to decline slightly from the previous number of 281k to 275k.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 15th July 2015.

THE NEW CURRENCY MOVERS CHARTS TOOL NOW AVAILABLE IN TRADERS’ BOARD.

The New Traders’ Board Page And Currency Movers Charts Tool

An all new Traders’ Board page is now public at Hot forex .com. We launched a new tool called Currency Movers Charts to serve You better. It displays both overnight and five day percentage changes in the major currencies against the other majors. Now you can, with just a glance, see how money is flowing between different currencies in Forex markets. With this tool you can identify the currency that’s currently attracting money at and over the last five days’ period while Currency Movers Charts also reveals which currency money is flowing out from.

EURNZD, 240 min

At the time of writing EUR is attracting money from other currencies while NZD and JPY have been losing some. The strongest performer intraday is EURNZD. In longer term picture the pair is trading at historical resistance created by a pivot in early 2014. Momentum is slowing down and should lead to a reversal. In intraday timeframe however the pair has rallied from a 4h support level and is currently trading just below a 50 period SMA but is moving higher from the downsloping trend channel top. The pair has some space above before it hits resistance at the previous day’s high at 1.6535.

AUDJPY, 240 min

AUDJPY is also interesting as it was the best performer earlier this morning. Over the last few days the pair has risen to a gap caused by the Greek drama couple of weeks ago. This could lead to a correction lower but because the pair is trading relatively close to 2015 weekly lows the downside is likely to be limited. Additionally, last week’s candle was a pinbar suggesting institutional buying between 89.00 and 91.20. Therefore, retracements back to 90.40 – 90.80 could provide us with low risk entries to this market. Look for momentum reversal signals to confirm the idea.

Five Day % Change

Another way of using Currency Movers Charts is identify strongly moving currencies over a period of time . GBP has been strong over the last five days with the biggest gains against the JPY. At the same time JPY has been the currency that has lost most against the other currencies over the same period. This indicates that market psychology has changed and participants have been moving away from safe havens into more riskier assets. This gives us insights on how markets feel about the future and how market participants have been positioning themselves.
GBPAUD, Weekly

GBP strength has been very evident lately but the GBPAUD has had a real bull run. The pair has been rising for 11 consecutive weeks. The fact that this has taken the pair to a historical resistance at 2.0948 and regression channel high gives us a reason to look for reversal signals as the pair might have moved too far and is getting close to a point were it will correct lower. Look for signs of momentum reversal in daily time frame. Weekly high from February (at 2.0028) is a likely long term target for shorts after the sell signals appear.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 16th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 16th July 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD managed to clear the 1.0920’s lower short term 1st target after failing to hold above the key 1.0960’s levels. According to my daily chart observations, looking back over the past six weeks, a down trend is being observed. This downtrend observation is supported by the fact that price is printing a series of new lower consecutive tops and lower bottoms over the last six weeks. Technically, the EURUSD remains soft, and after the clean break of the 1.0920’s, EURUSD short traders should keep an eye on the 1.0840’s as the next relevant target. EURUSD long traders will be watching the 1.0950’s -60’s areas for any potential price bounce upward penetration to leave a new lower top around the 1.1030’s-70.

The ECB seems to have some concerns about the re-opening of the Greek banks. ECB’s Dombret said in a speech that “it must be made sure that there is enough available liquidity, should depositors want to withdraw more money after the opening of the recapitalized bank”. Dombret also questioned if the Greek major banks are capable of surviving in the long term.

Fed Chair Yellen during yesterday’s testimony to congress gave an upbeat view regarding the US economy; however, she did not confirm or deny a September rate hike. Yellen did reiterate that tightening will likely happen sometime in 2015. The markets took this as a clue that it’s still Dollar time.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies. This morning EUR is trading higher against commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains soft against the USD. AUD is strong against the NZD, while NZD is weaker across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

USD Capacity Utilization June stood at 78.4% against 78.2% in May. The economy has improved, but still has a way to go.
• CAD Bank of Canada cut its key rate to 0.5% from 0.75% on July 15 in the hope of giving the economy a boost. Also, CAD Manufacturing sales in May were up 0.1% after having fallen 2.2% in April.
• GBP Unemployment increased to 5.6% in the three months to May, the lowest since April-June 2008. At the same time, wages grew at the fastest pace in more than five years.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 16th July 2015 (Second Analysis).

S&P 500 IN POTENTIAL TURNAROUND AREA

S&P 500, Weekly

Yesterday Fed Chair Yellen largely mirrored the recent FOMC statement and her own speech last week expressing cautious optimism about the expected rebound in U.S. growth, amid frustration about the continued low level of inflation. She cited global risks to this mostly healthy appraisal, and reiterated that it is not the lift-off but the policy path and pace of tightening that really matters. She expects a gradual tightening pace that still keeps policy accommodative.

Yellen’s speech didn’t move the markets that much yesterday. In fact, Nasdaq Composite (-0.12%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.02%) and S&P 500 (-0.07%) finished the day almost unchanged but slightly in the red. Financial sector, up by 0.84%, was rising strongly while Utilities gained 0.49% in absolute terms. Technology remained unchanged after hitting a resistance level the day before. Semiconductor sector ended the day down by 0.50% after a period of weakness. Even though semiconductor sector etf (SMH) is now at support and could therefore have a technical rally, the preceding weakness in semiconductor stocks is not a sign of a healthy market. Weakness in the technology sector etf (XLK) suggests the same. S&P 500 e-mini future (ES) has since yesterday’s close moved to the resistance area (2111.50 – 2134) I pointed out in my previous report.

S&P 500, Daily

Yesterday investors reacted positively after Bank of America (+3.21%), PNC (+0.84%) and US Bancorp (+3.76%) reported earnings. While US Bancorp’s earnings were in line with expectations the others exceeded them. Big US companies reporting today include ADV Micro Device, Charles Schwab, Citigroup, Ebay Inc., Goldman Sachs and Google.

ES has now advanced to the 2111.25 resistance level as expected. Market is overbought as per Stochastics Oscillator, while RSI and MFI are still below their overbought thresholds. ES is trading at descending trendline and close to the upper daily Bollinger Bands. Therefore, market is near to a potential turn around level but based on the recent price action it seems likely that it will push further in to the resistance area. Support and resistance levels: 2078 and 2134.

S&P 500, 240 min

ES has been trading higher as expected but is now at resistance. The width of the short term bottom indicates that the market will move to a bit higher. Resistance at 2122 coincides with the projection and is a pivotal high June 22nd. Stochastics has diverged from price indicating that momentum is slowing down and potential turning point is getting close. The next important support level is at 2078, while the weekly high from May at 2134 is the most important resistance level after 2122. In very short term, the nearest supporting pivotal level is at 2107.75 (short red line).

Conclusion

Yellen’s determination to raise rates is not supportive for the stock market that has been used to easy and cheap money. This together with the fact that US stock market is trading at very high levels with high valuations means that market participants aren’t eager to take the stocks into new highs. Price rallied over the last two days but now it’s trading at resistance. Area between 2111.50 and 2134 is an important weekly resistance. Market is likely counter substantial supply inside this range. This should bring ES back down to 2073 – 2080 range.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 17th July 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD is now trading at the lower end of the daily chart downtrend channel after breaking below the key 1.0920’s levels earlier this week. The short term outlook still remains bearish even after a failed attack on the 1.0840’s 2nd target extension during yesterday’s trading session. At the time of writing, price seems to be bouncing off the lower Bollinger band; ideally, I would like to see a lower top around the 1.0970’s – 1.1030’s before initiating any new short sales. Traders should expect to see some choppy trading during the next bounce before any resumption of any attack on the 1.0840’s, if these levels are cleared, the next leg lower should leave price to hang around the 1.0750’s.

The ECB and the markets would like to move past Greece; focus was on the ECB policy meeting yesterday which, as expected, left monetary policy unchanged. Reporters, however, did not feel that it was time to move past Greece with the ECB press conference dominated by questions regarding Greece. The good news for Greece is that the European Central bank lifted the ELA assistance for Greek banks, removing any immediate fears that Greek Banks would not have any funds for depositors to withdraw. What still remains unclear for the Greeks is how long exchange controls will remain in place.

The dollar was firm during most of the N.Y. session on Thursday, although, the greenback did trade a bit softer upon the release of the Philly Fed index. For Friday trading, expect some USD price action upon the release of the USD Building Permits, CPI and later Uom Consumer Sentiment reports.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading higher against commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains firm against the USD.

GBP is strong against the JPY, while NZD is weaker across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• US Housing Starts: June housing starts are out Friday and should show a 5.7% increase for the headline to a 1,095k (median 1,108k) following a big gyration in April-May that saw starts shoot up to 1,165k in April before dropping back to 1,036k in May. Accompanying the report we expect permits to slow to 1,105k from 1,250k in May and completions to slow 1,105k from 1,034.

• US CPI: June CPI is out Friday and should reveal a 0.2% (median 0.3%) increase for the headline with a matching 0.2% (median 0.2%) increase for the core. The already released PPI data revealed a headline increase of 0.4% with the core up 0.3%. Plunging oil prices over the winter and spring worked to depress inflation measures but we have begun to see some rebound as this effect dissipates.

• Canada CPI: We expect CPI, due Friday, to expand at a 1.0% y/y pace in June (median same at +1.0%) following the 0.9% y/y rate in May. CPI is seen rising 0.3% on a month comparable basis in June (median +0.2%) after the 0.6% bounce in May. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen dipping 0.1%, similar to the action seen in past months of June. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.2% y/y rate in June (median 2.2%), identical to the 2.2% clip in May. Core CPI saw a 2.3% y/y rate in April and a blistering 2.4% rate of increase in March.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th July 2015 (Second Analysis).

DOWNTRENDING AUDCAD HAS RALLIED TO RESISTANCE AREA.

AUDCAD, Weekly

AUDCAD has been moving lower in a wide trend channel after failing to penetrate at parity in the beginning of the year. Downtrend is clearly taking place as we have lower highs and lower lows but at the same time we need to acknowledge that this movement is taking place close to a longer term range low. AUDCAD has been ranging from 0.9205 in 2013 to 1.0349 in 2014 and the move we’ve seen since April this year has been taking place at lower end of this range. Therefore the longer term downside potential is limited and this pair could break out from the downtrend before breaking below the long term range bottom. This view is supported by the fact that the latest reaction low did not touch the channel low.

This week the pair has rallied strongly from lower Bollinger Bands and a support area near 0.9331. AUDCAD is now approaching top of downward sloping price channel which suggests that the short term upside is getting limited. This area also coincides with a weekly resistance level at 0.9664 and a 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.9648. This resistance also lines up with a level that used to support price on closing basis in February this year. The nearest weekly support level is at the latest low at 0.9376 while the next significant weekly support level is at 0.9331.

AUDCAD, Daily

Price has been rallying higher for four consecutive days and is currently trading at July 1st. pivotal candle low. Several technical factors coincide around the current price level: channel top, upper Bollinger Bands and a pivot high from July 1st. These factors together suggest that price could turn lower from here. Additionally, Stochastics Oscillator is trading above the overbought threshold adding to the indication that this down trending market is quite overbought and therefore vulnerable at the current levels.

Price action today shows some signs of weakness as the pair is trading near opening price after a rally higher was rejected. However, it is still too early make conclusions based on today’s candle as trading action over the rest of the day is likely to change the form of this price bar significantly.

The next significant daily support level coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.9515 while the nearest significant daily resistance level is at 0.9664.

AUDCAD, 240 min

The pair built a small base between July 6th and 14th and has since rallied almost the distance equivalent to the base width. The pair is at the time of writing AUDCAD is still finding support from a minor support level at 0.9584 and tries to rally higher. However, Stochastics is overbought and shows signs of slowing momentum as it is very close to moving below its signal line.

Conclusion

AUDCAD has been ranging from 0.9205 in 2013 to 1.0349 in 2014 and the move we’ve seen since April this year has been taking place at lower end of this range. Therefore the longer term downside potential is limited and this pair could break out from the downtrend rather than breaking below the long term range low. This view is supported by the fact that the latest reaction low did not touch the channel low.

However, as long as we have a down trending market at a resistance, it makes sense to look for shorting opportunities. In short term, the pair is trading at resistance while still inside a downward trend channel. This suggests a move lower from current levels is more likely than a breakout from the channel. Look for momentum reversal signals between 0.9594 and 0.9664. If short trade signals take place and are successful then my targets are T1: 0.9515 and T2: 0.9475.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 20th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 20th July 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, despite bearish momentum signals by stochastic oscillator analysis and a “Dow Pattern” down trend observation within the daily chart, may look to bounce off the May 27th low (1.0819) level to seek a lower top, ideally, around the 1.0970’s -1.1030’s. Short term traders may look into selling at any strength around the mentioned lower tops with targets into the 1.0750’s.

The EUR economic calendar started out this week with steady German June PPI inflation data; German inflation fell -1.4& y/y with prices down 0.1% m/m, as heating oil prices dropped 4.1% m/m. Last week, the EUR faced several important thresholds in terms of the ECB policy meeting and some resolutions regarding Greece. This week, we have a relatively light economic calendar so traders should expect to see lower volatility levels from last week with price action firmly in control of the technical traders.

The dollar is firm against gold and the AUD in overnight Asian trade, although, the AUD has since recovered off today’s lows. This USD strength is set to resume from Friday trade as in-line CPI and better housing starts, numbers give support to the USD.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading lower against commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains firm against the USD. The NZD is stronger across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• German Jun PPI inflation: was steady at -1.4% y/y, with prices down 0.1% m/m, as heating oil prices declined 4.1% m/m, after rising 2.4% m/m in May. Energy prices dropped 4.4% y/y and remain the dominating factor behind the sharp decline in prices over the year.

• CAD Wholesale Sales: for May are forecasted to come in at 0.5%, median -0.2% down from last 1.9% on the back of weaker commodity prices.

• USD Treasury Secretary Lew Speaks: is due to speak about the importance of financial reform.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 20th July 2015 (Second Analysis).

WEAK GOLD REACTED LOWER AS CHINA BOUGHT LESS GOLD THAN EXPECTED.

Gold, Weekly

Gold traded slightly below a major support level at 1130.40 on Friday and then moved even lower in Globex session at 2:30 am London time this morning. Price of Gold is down by 1.58% at the time of writing after Gold futures market was hit hard when it was at its weakest. Gold was trading at 1125 at the time when suddenly trading volumes increased by over 100% relative to average volumes over the past few hours. This aggressive selling during the hours when the market is at its thinnest took Gold down to a next major support level at 1080.

I warned about Gold’s long term weakness in my two previous reports. In June 8th report I pointed out that price action in Gold since the US Dollar index (DXY) started topping has not supported the Relative Strength idea. A market that has true relative strength bounces sharply higher when factors constraining its move higher are removed. This never happened in Gold even though the restraining factor of DXY strength was removed for a while. In my June 22nd report I pointed out several bearish indications in the long term technical picture: lower highs, a lower pointing 50 period SMA together with downward sloping trend channel and the fact that lack of momentum is indicating lack of serious long interest in this market.

This morning’s move took Gold down to a historical support from 2010 and very close to the lower end of the price channel. This bounced the price sharply higher while nearest resistance level is relatively close at 1130.40. The 23.6 Fibonacci retracement level at 1135.60 coincides with this resistance. The next resistance area is approx. at 1142.

Gold, Daily

News that China has been much more moderate buyer in gold than it was thought to be contributed to the fall. For the first time in six years China unveiled how much gold it had accumulated since 2009. While markets had assumed that the Chinese government had been buying gold at a rate of approximately 40 tonnes per month the real number was just slightly above 8 tonnes. This added to the bearishness as one big buyer was much less active than was suggested by the analysts.

After trending lower in a regression channel the price of gold has now made an extended move to the downside. The levels near the long term channel bottom attracted some serious buying as gold has rallied over three percent from today’s low. The nearest significant resistance level is at 1130.40 while next resistance is at 1146. The 1130.40 resistance coincides with the channel low. The 1080 level at today’s low is obviously the nearest support level in the daily time frame.

Gold, 240 min

As price has moved so quickly lower there isn’t much to comment in terms of technical analysis. Also, the four hour picture is not significantly different from the daily chart. Price has rallied from a support and is now trading close to the mid-range of the previous candle. The lower 2 stdv Bollinger Band has limited the move higher and the price of gold has reacted slightly lower from the band over the last two hours. The nearest 4h resistance level is at 1129.60 while the support level is at 1080.

Conclusion

The long term weakness that was visible in price action has now materialized in a form of a sharp move lower through weekly support levels at 1130 and 1141.70. These broken supports together with a former daily support at 1146 are now a likely resistance area. Long term picture stays weak and suggests lower prices for gold but in short term we should see 1080 support holding and market testing the 1130 – 1146 resistance area. If price moves to this resistance area we should monitor price action for potential signs of momentum reversal at levels identified in this report. Obviously price move can turn inside this range and not at the exact levels but the principle stays the same: we should see price action based confirmation before considering short positions.

Janne Muta
Senior Currency Strategist
********

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 21st July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21st July 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, now having cleared the 1.0840’s, is currently testing the May 27th lows as price action managed to dip briefly to 1.0811 earlier today in what looked like limit orders being filled. However, buyers soon emerged to pushed price back above the 1.0820 key support area. Traders should expect price to re-test the 1.0820 area several times as buyers seem to be re-emerging around that zone. If price can manage to close the day above the 1.0820’s this will further support the view of an initial bounce towards the 1.0970’s – 1.1030’s as discussed in my previous reports. Short term EURUSD traders should remain on alert for session closing prices above the key 1.0820’s support area that may open the way for an initial bounce towards the 1.0970’s -1.1030’s; however, if we see a session close below 1.0820’s that will favor fresh weakness towards the 1.0750’s.

Now that the Greek bailout deal has been put to the side for the moment, the markets can get back to focusing on important fundamental market moving data. The PMI number should dominate the remainder of the week with the Eurozone PMI numbers out on Friday.

The U.S. Fed’s Bullard said “the probability of a September rate liftoff is above 50%”, he also said that Greek uncertainties appear to be behind us, and that China’s stock market volatility is not large enough to impact U.S. monetary policy.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading higher against the USD, GBP and the JPY. The NZD is stronger across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Consumption growth had been little changed for most trading partners in recent months, although it was perhaps a bit stronger in the United States and somewhat weaker in China.

• GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing: The forecast for June is for -8.0B down from 9.4B

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
B]John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex[/B]

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 22nd July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21nd July 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, now having touched the lower end of my initial 1.0970’s corrective bounce target, should open up the way for a 1.1030’s lower top on any clean break of the 1.0970’s. Daily chart price action is still well contained within my downward sloping bear channel; Stochastic Oscillator analysis supports a further corrective bounce before any resumption of the daily chart downtrend. Traders may look to open new short positions within the 1.1030’s for a measured move (March lows – May highs) that may extend price lower towards a retest of the 1.0840’s.

Standard & Poor’s on Tuesday upgraded Greece’s sovereign credit rating by two notches and revised its outlook to stable from negative, citing euro zone countries initial agreement to start negotiations with the country on a third bailout. The probability of Greece leaving the Eurozone is less than 50% , however the country may still face shrinking GDP.

U.S. Fed’s annual industrial production revisions showed production knocked down to 0.2% in June, versus the prior 0.3% print, while May was left at -0.2%, with April revised up to a -0.3% pace from -0.5% previously. Capacity utilization for June was revised down sharply to 77.8% from 78.4%, while May was nudged to 77.7% from 78.2%, with April at 78.0% versus 78.5%. At the margin, the data add to the argument for the FOMC to delay a September rate hike.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading lower against the GBP and the JPY. The GBP is stronger across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes: The Bank of England (BoE) will begin to tighten monetary policy as late as in the third quarter of 2016, EY ITEM Clubsaid in its latest forecast for the UK economy.

• USD Existing Home Sales: Existing home sales for June are forecasted at 5.330M , median 5.400M both lower from last 5.3550M

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 22nd July 2015 (Second Analysis).

UPDATE: S&P 500 TURNED LOWER AS EXPECTED.

S&P 500 e-mini future (ES) turned lower soon after hitting my projection level at 2122 and is currently trading at 2102.75. This move lower was triggered by substantial overnight losses in Apple and Microsoft shares after IBM had lost ground significantly in the earlier trading session.

Apple posted record quarterly profit but was strongly sold off. Apple shares tanked nearly 9% in after-hours at one stage trade iPhone shipments missed forecasts and forecast revenues shy of the $51.1 bln targeted, wiping of some $50 bln in market cap. Apple shares cut those losses back to -6%. The absorption of Nokia also tarnished Microsoft’s results to the tune of a $7.5 bln write-off and 5.1% revenue decline for a $3.2 bln net loss, knocking its shares over 4% lower after-hours. Yahoo also missed and sank 2.2%.

I have been suggesting in the last two reports on ES that this market will rally the above resistance and will hit significant supply between 2111.25 and 2134. This has now taken place and for the benefit of those that have shorted the index in the resistance or will be selling the rallies we need to focus on the likely moves from here. In the July 16th report I said that the supply inside the resistance area should bring the ES down to 2073 – 2080 range and there is no need to deviate from this view.

Stochastics is rolling over from the overbought zone indicating further move down. This is likely as the next support can be found at 2078 level. The 50% Fibonacci level coincides with this area at 2080, therefore I expect market to find support in 2073 – 2080 range. There is some intraday resistance at 2009 to 2010 that might provide a short selling opportunity for those not engaged at the short side yet.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 23rd July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 23rd July 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, having cleared the 1.0970’s at the time of this writing, is now on its way to print a new lower top (below the July 10th high of 1.1216), ideally around the 1.1030’s in order to keep the daily chart downtrend channel intact. The stochastic momentum indicator indicates that the current corrective bounce is picking up steam. A further move beyond the 1.1030’s should not be ruled out as price may extend towards the 1.1140’s before breaking down to continue towards my medium term downtrend price target near the 1.0750’s.

Markets are scaling back on any Grexit premiums since Greece has now paved the way for the start of official bailout talks by pushing through a number of reform measures last night. Another positive EUR development was that Spanish unemployment fell during Q2; however, at 22.37% it is still high.

The USD had some support as a strong existing home sales report helped USD sentiment. U.S. existing home sales rose 3.2% to a 5.49mm in June, which was better than expected.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading higher against the majors. The GBP is weaker across the board against most pairs, while the NZD has strength across the board.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP Retail Sales: Unexpectedly fell by 0.2% m/m. The median forecast had been for a 0.3% m/m rise, which would have been unchanged from May. The y/y figure worked out at +4.0%, down from May’s +4.7%. The weakness stemmed from a 0.3% drop in food sales and a 0.9% fall in household goods, which probably reflects month-to-month volatility as there doesn’t appear to be a rationale for the declines.

• EUR Spanish unemployment fell in Q2: Still very high 22.37% from 23.78% in the previous quarter. The government estimates growth at 1.0% q/q in Q2, and the Spanish economy continues to outperform the other big Eurozone countries as the reform measures take hold. Still, unemployment is slow to adjust down and the high youth unemployment rate also reflects remaining structural issues and is fuelling popular resistance to the reform path. With Spain heading for elections in autumn a repeat of the Greek debacle is not unlikely and the risk that reforms are being reversed is not negligible. It is expected that retail sales will expand 0.5% m/m in May (median +0.6%) after the 0.1% drop in April.

• NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand : Cut rates 25 bps to 3.00%, matching expectations.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 24th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 24th July 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, continues to bounce from the May lows near 1.0820. This corrective bounce has attempted, but so far failed, to print a new lower top from the previous 1.1216 high. Yesterday’s high of near 1.1018 was a good attempt at the 1.1030’s, my previous article forecasted lower top. Traders should expect for the market to range between the 1.1030’s and 1.0870’s, now that the previous resistance turned support 1.0970’s area has been deemed invalid, as price has tested the 1.0970’s area both from below and above. Relevant support levels are now observed at 1.0920, 1.0870 and 1.0820, while resistance levels are spotted at 1.1030, 1.1087 and 1.1216. Given that the EURUSD price action is still firmly within the downward slopping price channel, as well as the fact that bullish momentum is observed within the Stochastic Oscillator analysis, I continue to be on alert for sellers to emerge around the 1.1020’s-30’s for a re-test of the 1.0820’s; any breach of the 1.0820’s will open up the way towards the 1.0750’s.

Eurozone Jul PMIs disappointed today, with readings falling slightly from June. The manufacturing PMI dipped to 52.2 from 52.5 and the services to 53.8 from 54.4. However, data continues to show ongoing expansion across the Eurozone manufacturing sectors, which supports the ECB’s view that the recovery remains intact and is broadening if not accelerating.

As for next week’s U.S. Fed policy statement, it should support Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony where she said that the “FOMC is likely to begin liftoff this year, provided the economy continues to improve as forecast.” Traders should prepare for a relatively positive assessment of the U.S. economy.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This afternoon the EUR is trading higher against the AUD. The AUD is weaker across the board against most pairs, while the JPY is stronger against the EUR.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR PMIs : French PMI readings were much weaker than expected, with the manufacturing PMI falling back below the 50 point no change mark to 49.6 from 50.7 in June. The services reading slumped to 52.0 from 54.1. German corrections were not quite as pronounced and the dips to 51.5 in the manufacturing PMI and 53.7 in the services reading from 51.9 and 53.8 point to a stabilisation, rather than a marked correction. Still, the weak French numbers, highlight that risks to the Eurozone recovery remain and that France continues to underperform.

• JPY Japan flash manufacturing PMI : rose to 51.4 in July compared to 50.1 in June as both domestic orders and output rose — the fastest clip in 5-months. New orders rose to 51.3 from 49.6, output gained to 52.3 from 50.9.

• U.S. New Home Sales : June data on new home sales is out today and should reveal a 1.1% decline to a 540k (median 549k) pace from the 546k pace in May which set a new recent high.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 27th July 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, at the time of writing, price has penetrated the higher channel line within the above daily chart to clear the higher end of the 1.1080’s resistance levels. When a market has a breakout, we look for it to make an initial move beyond nearby support and resistance. Those traders that have been following my daily analysis of the EURUSD, would not be surprised by the recent surge in price, as I have been writing about the possibility of the pair printing out a new lower top below the 1.1220’s within the above chart downward price channel. I now remain on the watch for a breach above the 1.1210’s – 1.1220’s area for clues of a daily chart trend reversal, otherwise I would expect for price to halt its three month corrective bounce and resume its move lower towards a retest of the 1.0870’s with the possibility of reaching my 1.0750’s target area.

The EUR received a boost in early European market trading as the German July Ifo Business Climate unexpectedly bounced back with the overall reading rising to 108.0 from 107.5 in the previous month. The expectations reading rose for the first time since March and it seems the Greek bailout deal has boosted future optimism. The retail trade index meanwhile fell back slightly, as did the construction index. All in all, a positive number, which together with the effective stabilization in German ZEW and PMI readings confirms that the German economy remains on track.

Traders should expect further EURUSD price action later today as the U.S. June Durable Goods Orders are due. June durable goods orders are expected to grow by 2.0%., Shipments and Inventories are expected to remain unchanged.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

Over the last five trading day’s the EUR is trading higher across the board. The AUD remains weaker across the board against most pairs, while the JPY is stronger against the AUD.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Eurozone M3 money supply: growth steady at 5.0%, against expectations for a marginal acceleration in the annual number. The three months moving average, the ECB’s preferred target, moved up to 5.1%, clearly above the reference value of 4.5%, although with the ECB focused on loan growth and headline inflation, M3 data has effectively been degraded in its importance for monetary policy decision.

• U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders: Forecast risk: upward, as there was an increase in Boeing orders in June. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike timelines.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 28th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 28th July 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, after breaking out of the six week downward sloping price channel, looks set to continue to bounce off of May’s low at 1.0820. Price action during Monday’s trading sessions was supported by the German Ifo report; the market viewed the results as strong enough to allow the pair to confirm a new short term resistance level at 1.1129. Technically, I now seek a return move towards the previous day’s low near the 1.0970’s, before we see a retest of the 1.1120’s.

The euro outperformed as more Grexit risk premium was unwound. Further, the July German Ifo survey beat expectations and boosted EUR longs. Market participants, as it seems, are adjusting expectations on the performance of the Chinese economy as the Chinese stock market closed down 8.5% on Monday. It is yet to remain seen, if the Chinese slowdown is a domestic issue or if it will spread into the global economy.

The dollar shrugged off the better durables report, which was beefed up by Boeing orders. The U.S. Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index improved to -4.6 in July versus -7.0 in June. It’s been in negative territory for 7 straight months given the region’s exposure to the oil recession.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The GBP is trading firmer against the EUR and the JPY ahead of the GBP GDP data.

The JPY trades lower against most pairs, as the USDJPY recovered most of the losses from yesterday’s decline.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP Prelim GDP: Preliminary Q2 GDP data is expecting a 0.7% q/q rise, up from 0.6% in Q1, With robust growth the BoE can afford to lay the ground for rate hikes ahead and a recent Bloomberg poll suggests that most economists expect the first MPC members to start voting for a hike next month.

• USD CB Consumer Confidence: The July consumer confidence is out later today and should reveal a decline to 100.0 (median 100.0) from 101.4 in June. This would come along side a decline in Michigan Sentiment to 93.3 in the first July release from 96.1 in June. The IBD/TIPP poll for the month managed to hold steady at 48.1 for a second month.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.