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[HFM.]

Date: 7th April 2025.

Asian Markets Plunge as US-China Trade War Escalates; Wall Street Futures Signal Further Turmoil.

Global financial markets extended last week’s massive sell-off as tensions between the US and its major trading partners deepened, rattling investors and prompting sharp declines across equities, commodities, and currencies. The fallout from President Trump’s sweeping new tariff measures continued to spread, raising fears of a full-blown trade war and economic recession.

Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, extending a global market rout fueled by rising tensions between the US and China. The latest wave of aggressive tariffs and retaliatory measures has unnerved investors worldwide, triggering sharp sell-offs across the Asia-Pacific region.

Asian equities led the global rout on Monday, with dramatic losses seen across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled more than 8% shortly after the open, while the broader Topix fell over 6.5%, recovering only slightly from steeper losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite sank 6.7%, and the blue-chip CSI300 dropped 7.5% as markets reopened following a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened more than 9% lower, reflecting deep concerns about escalating trade tensions.

South Korea’s Kospi dropped 4.8%, triggering a circuit breaker designed to curb panic selling. Taiwan’s Taiex index collapsed by nearly 10%, with major tech exporters like TSMC and Foxconn hitting circuit breaker limits after each fell close to 10%. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 shed as much as 6.3%, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 lost over 3.5%.

Despite the escalation, Beijing has adopted a measured tone. Chinese officials urged investors not to panic and assured markets that the country has the tools to mitigate economic shocks. At the same time, they left the door open for renewed trade talks, though no specific timeline has been set.

US Stock Futures Plunge Ahead of Monday Open

US stock futures pointed to another brutal day on Wall Street. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped over 3%, Nasdaq futures sank 4%, and Dow Jones futures lost 2.5%—equivalent to nearly 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, down more than 20% from its recent highs, while the S&P 500 is nearing bear territory. The Dow closed last week in correction. Oil prices followed suit, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to $59.49 per barrel—its lowest since April 2021.

Wall Street closed last week in disarray, erasing more than $5 trillion in value amid fears of an all-out trade war. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, sinking more than 20% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is approaching bear territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped firmly into correction territory.

German Banks Hit Hard Amid Escalating Trade Tensions

German banking stocks were among the worst hit in Europe. Shares of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank plunged between 9.5% and 10.3% during early Frankfurt trading, compounding Friday’s steep losses. Fears over a global trade war and looming recession are severely impacting the financial sector, particularly export-driven economies like Germany.

Eurozone Growth at Risk

Eurozone officials are bracing for economic fallout, with Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras warning that Trump’s tariff policy could reduce eurozone GDP by up to 1%. The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of American goods—ranging from steel and aluminium to consumer products like dental floss and luxury jewellery.

Starting Wednesday, the US is expected to impose 25% tariffs on key EU exports, with Brussels ready to respond with its own 20% levies on nearly all remaining American imports.

UK Faces £22 Billion Economic Blow

In the UK, fresh research from KPMG revealed that the British economy could shrink by £21.6 billion by 2027 due to US-imposed tariffs. The analysis points to a 0.8% dip in economic output over the next two years, undermining Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ growth agenda. The report also warned of additional fiscal pressure that may lead to future tax increases and public spending cuts.

Wall Street Braces for Recession

Goldman Sachs revised its US recession probability to 45% within the next year, citing tighter financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty. This marks a sharp jump from the 35% risk estimated just last month—and more than double January’s 20% projection. J.P. Morgan issued a bleaker outlook, now forecasting a 60% chance of recession both in the US and globally.

Global Leaders Respond as Trade Tensions Deepen

The dramatic market sell-off was triggered by China’s sweeping retaliation to a new round of US tariffs, which included a 34% levy on all American imports. Beijing’s state-run People’s Daily released a defiant statement, asserting that China has the tools and resilience to withstand economic pressure from Washington. ‘We’ve built up experience after years of trade conflict and are prepared with a full arsenal of countermeasures,’ it stated.

Around the world, policymakers are responding to the growing threat of a trade-led economic slowdown. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to appeal directly to Washington and push for tariff relief, following the US administration’s decision to impose a blanket 24% tariff on Japanese imports. He aims to visit the US soon to present Japan’s case as a fair trade partner.

In Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te said his administration would work closely with Washington to remove trade barriers and increase purchases of American goods in an effort to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. The island's defence ministry has also submitted a new list of US military procurements to highlight its strategic partnership.

Economists and strategists are warning of deeper economic consequences. Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, said the scale and speed of these tariffs could result in far more severe damage than previously anticipated. ‘This isn’t just a bilateral conflict anymore — more countries are likely to respond in the coming weeks,’ he noted.

Analysts at Barclays cautioned that smaller Asian economies, such as Singapore and South Korea, may face challenges in negotiating with Washington and are already adjusting their economic growth forecasts downward in response to the unfolding trade crisis.

Oil Prices Sink on Demand Concerns

Crude oil continued its sharp slide on Monday, driven by recession fears and weakened global demand. Brent fell 3.9% to $63.04 a barrel, while WTI plunged over 4% to $59.49—both benchmarks marking weekly losses exceeding 10%. Analysts say inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity may drag demand down, even though energy imports were excluded from the latest round of tariffs.

Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted, ‘The market is struggling to find a bottom. Until there’s a clear signal from Trump that calms recession fears, crude prices will remain under pressure.’

OPEC+ Adds Further Pressure with Output Hike

Bearish sentiment intensified after OPEC+ announced it would boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, far surpassing the expected 135,000 bpd. The alliance called on overproducing nations to submit compensation plans by April 15. Analysts fear this surprise move could undo years of supply discipline and weigh further on already fragile oil markets.

Global political risks also flared over the weekend. Iran rejected US proposals for direct nuclear negotiations and warned of potential military action. Meanwhile, Russia claimed fresh territorial gains in Ukraine’s Sumy region and ramped up attacks on surrounding areas—further darkening the outlook for markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 8th April 2025.

Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen

Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.

However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.

In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.

Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.

China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’

Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.

If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.

In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.

Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.

Trump Talks Tough on EU Too

Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’

The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.

Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama

Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.

The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.

Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts

Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.

Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.

Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.

However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.

In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.

Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.

Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist

With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 9th April 2025.

Global Markets Rattled by Tariffs and Bond Sell-Off as Volatility Surges.

Markets around the globe were hit hard on Wednesday, as sweeping US tariffs took effect and fears of a global economic slowdown intensified. From bond markets to equities, investors were left scrambling amid heightened uncertainty and growing recession risks. Volatility levels surged as investors responded to rising yields, falling oil prices, and a weakening yuan. Government bond yields surged, treasuries were hit hard, equities tumbled, and oil hit fresh multi-year lows as investors scrambled to assess the impact of sweeping trade measures.

Tariff Uncertainty Sparks Global Sell-Off​

Markets were on edge as the White House confirmed a 104% tax targeting Chinese imports, effective at midnight. While the US administration indicated openness to negotiations with over 70 nations, China has yet to engage. Instead, Beijing vowed to ‘fight to the end’ and warned it has ample tools to offset any external shocks.

In a bold move, China allowed the offshore yuan to weaken to a record low of 7.4153 per dollar, signalling its willingness to absorb external shocks. Goldman Sachs warned that China might retaliate by selling US assets, including Treasuries, potentially exacerbating the sell-off.

Bond Market Under Siege as Yields Surge​

Investors dumped long-duration US government bonds in droves, driving yields to multi-year highs. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly soared above 5% the highest level since 1998, while the 10-year hit 4.51% before easing back to 4.42%. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield fell on haven demand and bets for future rate cuts, steepening the curve sharply. Bond yields move inversely to prices. Stock markets came under renewed pressure.

The curve between 2s and 10s spiked by 14 basis points to 55 bps. This aggressive repricing reflected deepening fears of inflation, slower growth, and rising uncertainty over the Fed's policy path. The sharp rise in long-dated yields caused a steepening in the yield curve across Europe, with bond prices falling as investors priced in higher inflation and slower global growth.

RBNZ Cuts Rates, Signals Further Easing​

New Zealand’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%, marking the fifth consecutive easing. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cited mounting global trade risks and downside pressures on both growth and inflation.

‘The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for economic activity,’ said the RBNZ. ‘These developments create downside risks... The Committee has scope to lower the OCR further as appropriate.’Markets now expect rates to fall below the 3% floor previously signalled by the central bank.

Global Repercussions: Stocks and Currencies Hit​

In Europe, German bonds opened lower, and a steepening yield curve emerged as longer-term yields rose sharply. Futures tracking the Stoxx Europe 600 slumped 2.9%, mirroring weakness in US and Asian equity markets.

Japanese stocks fell sharply, with the Topix dropping 3.6%, while the yen settled near ¥145 per dollar. Analysts described earlier gains as a ‘head fake,’ noting that ‘fast money’ had resumed bearish bets amid worsening trade tensions.

Chinese equities managed to rebound, driven by strength in technology and chip stocks. The CSI 300 index swung from a 1.7% decline to close up 0.3%, led by SMIC (+6%) and Foxconn Industrial Internet.

Wall Street’s major indices plunged before partially trimming losses late in the session. The S&P 500 closed down 1.57%, the Nasdaq tumbled 2.15%, and the Dow slipped 0.84%. Earlier gains of over 4% were quickly reversed as investors grew wary of systemic risks.

This marked the fourth consecutive session with a trading range exceeding 5%, a rare occurrence seen only during periods of extreme stress like March 2020, October 1987, and the 2008 financial crisis.

The VIX volatility index jumped 10.6% to 52.01, reflecting the high level of investor anxiety.

Oil Crashes to Pandemic Lows, Gold Recovers​

Oil markets extended their dramatic decline as traders braced for weaker global demand. Brent crude dropped 4.1% to $60.26—a four-year low—while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to $56.30. Gold, meanwhile, briefly dipped but managed to rebound above $3040 per ounce.

USDIndex Dips, Currency Volatility Rises​

The US Dollar Index (DXY) swung throughout the session, at 102.25—down from a session high of 103.441. Currency markets were jittery amid safe-haven flows and shifting interest rate expectations.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 17th April 2025.

Economic Data Lifts Crude Oil — Will Resistance Stall the Rally?

Crude Oil prices rise for a second consecutive day due to supply chain concerns and positive Chinese data. The price of Crude Oil rose 1.58% on Wednesday, and a further 1.15% during this morning’s Asian session. However, this upward price movement has taken the asset to the key resistance level at $62.70. Is the price about to witness a decline due to the current resistance level?

Why are Oil Prices Increasing?​

One of the main reasons why Crude Oil prices have been increasing in value is the positive economic data from China. China and the US hold the biggest influence over Crude Oil demand as the two countries are the largest importers. China's first quarter’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.4%, surpassing the projected 5.2%. However, analysts attribute this growth to a surge in demand for Chinese goods ahead of the anticipated tariff war and predict a potential slowdown by year-end.

Nonetheless, the oil market reacted positively to the news that the Chinese economy saw better figures than previously expected. Traders will be watching closely to see if deteriorating economic data in the coming months, driven by trade policy, will put downward pressure on prices.

Crude Oil


The US also made public positive economic data from Retail Sales. The Retail Sales figure rose by 1.4%, the highest in more than 12 months. The Core Retail Sales also rose by 0.5%, higher than the projected figure and the previous month.

Furthermore, the US, UK and Japan have confirmed they will begin negotiating a trade agreement with the US. The tone is positive and can have a positive impact on the price of Oil. However, the key factor for the Oil market is whether the US will come to an agreement with China. In terms of supply, Iraq and Kazakhstan have announced additional output cuts to keep supply controlled. In addition to this, the US is imposing additional sanctions on Iranian oil which is further pressuring the supply side. Restrictions on supply chains are known to push prices higher.

The Federal Reserve and How the Economy Will Influence Crude Oil?​

Even though economic data surprised the market and provided a positive tone for many assets, the Federal Reserve was less positive. The Chairman, Mr Jerome Powell spoke towards the end of the US session discussing inflation, employment and interest rates. According to Mr Powell, the Tariffs imposed by the US administration were higher than previous expectations.

According to the Fed, the trade policy is likely to trigger higher inflation, but it is unclear whether the higher inflation will be temporary or long-term. The Consumer and Producer Price Index over the next 3-6 months will be key for the Federal Reserve. The key statement that captured investors' attention was the chairman's remarks regarding the Federal Reserve's primary focus.

Powell said, ‘without price stability, we cannot achieve long periods of strong labor market conditions’. This comment was a clear indication that the Federal Reserve will concentrate on controlling inflation and will allow the employment sector to be temporarily hit. The hawkish tone from the Fed can be seen in the Fedwatch Tool.

The expectations of a pause have risen 14% over the past week, mainly due to the speech yesterday. However, the market still believes the Federal Reserve will cut in June 2025.

Crude Oil - Technical Analysis​

The main concern for Crude Oil is the resistance level at $62.70, the domino effect of a Federal Reserve reluctant to cut rates and if the so-called ‘trade war’ escalates. As the price rose to the resistance level this morning, the asset quickly declined. Nonetheless, on a 2-hour chart, the asset remains above the trend line and above the neutral area of the RSI. However, the price is below the Volume-weighted average price. Therefore, we have conflicting signals.

Crude Oil


However, if the price continues to decline and establish itself below the 200-bar simple moving average in the 3-minute timeframe, the sell signals are likely to strengthen.

Key Takeaway Points:​

1. Oil prices rose for a second day, driven by strong Chinese GDP, OPEC+ supply cuts, and renewed sanctions on Iran.
2. Positive economic data from China and the US boosted demand outlook, though analysts warn China's growth may slow due to upcoming tariffs.
3. The Fed maintained a hawkish stance, prioritizing inflation control, and raising uncertainty about rate cuts despite strong economic figures.
4. Trade talks with the US, UK, and Japan lifted market sentiment, but concerns remain over a potential escalation in the US-China trade dispute.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 18th April 2025.

Market Wrap-Up: Stocks Mixed as UnitedHealth and Nvidia Drag, While Netflix Surges.

U.S. equity markets closed Thursday’s shortened session on a mixed note ahead of the Good Friday holiday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 1.33%, pressured by a 22% plunge in UnitedHealth Group after it cut its earnings forecast. The Nasdaq Composite also dipped 0.13%, led lower by a 2.9% drop in Nvidia, which continues to struggle amid chip export restrictions to China.

In contrast, the S&P 500 managed a modest gain of 0.13%, supported by strength in energy stocks and a surprise earnings beat from Netflix. The streaming giant jumped in after-hours trading, driven by stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings, higher subscription prices, and robust ad revenue growth.

On the technical front, Netflix’s RSI has rebounded off the 50 level—historically a reliable signal for renewed bullish momentum. Resistance now sits at $1,065 and $1,300, while support is seen near $821 and $697.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields rose, erasing most of Wednesday’s gains. The 10-year yield climbed 4.8 basis points to 4.325%, and the 2-year yield rose to 3.785%, reflecting investor uncertainty and fading hopes for near-term Fed rate cuts.

Political Pressure and Tariff Concerns Stir Volatility​

Markets also digested sharp political commentary that rattled confidence. Former President Donald Trump made headlines after attacking Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, stating that his ‘termination cannot come soon enough.’ While Powell remains firmly in position, the remarks reignited fears over central bank independence—a cornerstone of monetary policy stability.

Additionally, tariff tensions resurfaced as the former president hinted at a more protectionist trade stance. With global supply chains still vulnerable, investors grew wary of renewed U.S.-China trade friction—especially in the semiconductor and tech sectors, where Nvidia and TSMC remain key players.

Asia Rallies in Holiday-Thinned Trading as TSMC Meets Expectations​

Asian equity markets mostly posted gains on Friday despite Wall Street’s choppy session, as investors reacted to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) earnings and stabilized sentiment in the region.

• Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.6% to close at 34,583.29.
• South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.3% to 2,478.39.
• Taiwan’s Taiex gained 0.8% after TSMC met forecasts and offered cautious optimism despite ongoing chip export risks.
• China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.3% to 3,272.09 amid continued weakness in domestic demand.

Trading volumes remained thin across Asia ahead of the Easter holiday, with several regional exchanges closed.

Global Policy Moves: ECB Cuts Rates, Mixed U.S. Data Keeps Traders Guessing

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected interest rate cut, yet investor reaction was subdued. The CAC 40 dropped 0.6% and Germany’s DAX declined 0.5%, reflecting concern that rate reductions may be arriving too late to stimulate faltering growth.

Back in the U.S., economic data sent mixed signals. Weekly jobless claims fell more than anticipated, highlighting ongoing labour market strength. However, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index contracted unexpectedly, showing continued weakness in factory output.

Combined, these updates reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may remain on hold longer than investors had hoped, especially amid sticky inflation and political pushback.

Dollar Holds Ground as Bond Yields Rise and Gold Retreats from Record Highs​

In the currency markets, the US Dollar Index remained steady near 99.44, posting a third consecutive close below the psychological 100 level. The greenback traded in a narrow range between 99.231 and 99.746. Meanwhile, the dollar eased slightly to 132.42 yen and the euro ticked up to $1.1373, maintaining its recent strength.

Gold prices, which touched record highs earlier in the week, slipped 0.49% to close at $3,326.85 per ounce after hitting $3,343.12 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, oil prices rebounded sharply:

• WTI crude surged 3.5% to $64.68 a barrel.
• Brent crude rose to $67.96.

The rally in energy was supported by bargain-hunting and concerns over global supply risks. Markets remained closed Friday in observance of Good Friday, pausing further moves in commodities and bonds.

Final Takeaway: Markets Enter Holiday Pause with Unresolved Risks

As the markets head into a long weekend, investor sentiment remains cautious. Strong earnings from companies like Netflix offer moments of optimism, but persistent concerns around tariff policy, Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh heavily on risk appetite.

With bond yields creeping higher and volatility likely to return next week, traders should stay nimble and watch for cues from earnings reports, Fed speakers, and any developments on the trade or political front.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 23rd April 2025.

Trump Eases Market Fears: Stocks Surge as President Declares No Intention to Fire Fed Chair Powell.

Trading Leveraged products is Risky

US stock futures surged on Tuesday after President Donald Trump clarified he has ‘no intention’ of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell — a statement that helped soothe Wall Street concerns over central bank independence and policy stability. The President was answering a wide range of questions from the Oval Office. He also said he expects to make a deal with China, but if there is not, it is not the end of the end. China tariffs will come down ‘substantially’, he added.

ETFs tracking US equity futures are climbing and extending Tuesday's bounce in after-hours trading on these comments. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.2%, while S&P 500 futures advanced 1.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the rally with a 1.8% spike. Investors took comfort in Trump’s softened tone toward Powell, especially after recent criticisms and threats of dismissal that had roiled markets.

Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump said he ‘never did’ intend to remove Powell but reiterated his preference for lower interest rates. ‘I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates,’ Trump added.

The president’s remarks came after he previously labelled Powell a ‘major loser’ and said his removal ‘couldn’t come fast enough.’ This shift in rhetoric signalled a truce, at least for now, between the White House and the central bank — calming investors rattled by fears of political interference in monetary policy.

Asian Markets Climb on Powell News and Trade Optimism

Global markets followed Wall Street’s lead. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.7%, Australia’s ASX 200 climbed 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi added 1.2%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.7%. The Shanghai Composite was little changed, down just 0.1%.

The broader market mood was also lifted by new optimism around global trade. Trump indicated that tariffs on China could come down ‘substantially,’ while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called current tariff levels ‘unsustainable.’ Vice President JD Vance noted encouraging progress in US-India trade talks.

Tesla Soars After Musk Commits More Time to Company

Tesla (TSLA) shares jumped 5% in after-hours trading Tuesday despite disappointing first-quarter earnings. The electric vehicle maker missed Wall Street expectations, but investors were buoyed by CEO Elon Musk’s announcement that he will dedicate more time to Tesla.

‘Starting early next month, in May, my time allocation to DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] will drop significantly,’ Musk said during the post-earnings call, adding that he’ll spend only one to two days per week on DOGE and the rest focusing on Tesla. The company also reaffirmed plans to launch new vehicles in the first half of 2025.

Oil Prices Rebound on Fed Comments and Inventory Data

Crude oil extended gains following Trump’s assurance about Powell’s job security and a bullish industry report on US stockpiles. West Texas Intermediate climbed above $64 a barrel, reversing Monday’s losses triggered by political and economic uncertainty.

But Bitcoin appears to be charting its own path

Unlike stocks and bonds, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has climbed more than 8% during the same period, reaffirming its role — at least for now — as a hedge in investor portfolios. According to Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell, Bitcoin is doing “all the right things” to show it may be entering a new phase of market behavior, increasingly decoupled from traditional risk assets.

Zooming out to the post-election period, Bitcoin has maintained its momentum even as stock market gains have reversed. While the S&P 500 has slipped below 5,300, Bitcoin is trading above $91,000 — significantly higher than its pre-election value of around $68,000.

Of course, it's too early to call this a lasting trend. But in a climate where U.S.-centric investments are losing favor, Bitcoin’s recent resilience is turning heads across the financial world.

Bank of Japan Seen Holding Rates Amid Global Trade Turbulence

In Asia, a Reuters survey of economists revealed that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain its key interest rate through June, with a modest rate hike possibly coming in the third quarter. Only 52% of respondents now anticipate a rate hike between July and September, down from 70% last month.

Economists cited the uncertain global outlook, driven in part by Trump’s unpredictable trade policies, as a major reason for the BOJ’s cautious approach. While Trump recently imposed a 25% tariff on car and truck imports and a 24% tariff on Japanese goods — later reduced to 10% for 90 days — the impact has so far been disruptive but not severe enough to derail Japan’s monetary policy path.

Despite expected cuts to Japan’s economic growth forecast, 87% of surveyed economists said the country is unlikely to enter a recession. Many believe that a stronger yen and lower import costs could offset weaker exports, stabilizing the economy.

‘Exports will decline, but the strong yen will reduce import costs and boost corporate earnings,’ said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Research Institute. ‘And the suppression of consumer price increases is expected to support personal consumption, thereby an economic downturn is likely to be avoided.’

Markets were on edge after days of tension between the White House and the Fed. But Trump’s assurance that Jerome Powell’s position is safe — coupled with positive trade signals — helped spark a broad-based market recovery, from equities to commodities. As earnings season and economic data roll in, investors will be watching closely for signs that this rally has staying power.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 24th April 2025.

The Dollar's Role in a Recession Is Real—but Not Solo!

Key Takeaways

• The US dollar appears overvalued based on historical metrics.
• Foreign investor exposure to US assets is at record levels.
• Slower US economic growth and rising policy risks may reduce demand for the dollar.
• The greenback’s reserve currency status remains secure, but depreciation pressures are building.
• Inflation, trade balance improvements, and financial stability are all tied to the dollar’s trajectory.
• Trade policy, more than the dollar itself, may determine the path forward for the US economy.

Forecasting currency movements—especially the US dollar—is notoriously difficult. Compared to predicting GDP growth, inflation, or interest rates, estimating exchange rate trends poses even greater challenges. Yet, despite this complexity, there’s growing evidence that the dollar's recent 5% drop on a trade-weighted basis could be just the beginning.

The Dollar’s Decline: A Signal or a Catalyst?​

According to the Federal Reserve, the real effective value of the US dollar remains significantly elevated—nearly two standard deviations above its long-term average since 1973. Historically, similar levels were observed only in the mid-1980s and early 2000s. Both periods were followed by sharp dollar corrections, falling by 25% to 30%.

Could a deeper depreciation trigger broader financial consequences?

Massive Foreign Exposure to US Assets Raises Red Flags​

Global investors have significantly increased their exposure to US assets. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that foreign investors now hold around $22 trillion in US-based assets—representing approximately one-third of their total portfolios. Half of this investment is in equities, many of which are unhedged against currency risk. Should these investors begin reducing their exposure to US markets, the dollar could experience intensified selling pressure.

Even a pause in foreign inflows may weigh heavily. The United States runs a current account deficit of roughly $1.1 trillion per year, which must be financed through capital inflows. In reality, most of this financing has traditionally come from foreign purchases of US portfolio assets. If foreign demand for these assets falters, prices may fall, the dollar could weaken, or both could occur simultaneously.

Slowing US Growth Could Dampen Dollar Strength​

If the US economy were expected to continue outperforming other global economies, dollar strength might be more sustainable. However, this no longer appears likely. Economic growth projections have been downgraded across major economies, and the US has been hit hardest. For example, Goldman Sachs has revised its 2024-2025 US GDP forecast from 1% to just 0.5%.

With rising policy uncertainty, weaker corporate earnings, and doubts about the Federal Reserve’s independence, international investors may become more cautious about increasing their US holdings.

Dollar Depreciation Isn’t a Death Blow—But It’s Not Irrelevant​

Despite these concerns, a weaker dollar does not necessarily imply the end of its global dominance. It’s important to separate dollar depreciation from a loss of its global reserve status. Historically, the greenback has faced major swings before without losing its dominance as the world’s primary reserve currency. Its role as a global medium of exchange and store of value remains deeply embedded in the international financial system.

Implications of a Weaker Dollar

1. Consumer Prices May Rise
   A falling dollar could amplify the inflationary effects of recent tariffs. Core inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, may rise from 2.75% to 3.5%, with dollar weakness potentially adding another 0.25 percentage points. Ultimately, American consumers are likely to bear the brunt of higher import costs.
2. Exports Become More Competitive
   A weaker dollar reduces the price of US exports (in foreign currency terms) while making imports more expensive. Over time, this shift could help reduce the US trade deficit—aligning with longstanding policy goals.
3. Financial Conditions Could Tighten
   While a depreciating dollar can support easier financial conditions, the context matters. If the drop is driven by reduced demand for US assets, including Treasuries, the benefits could be offset by rising borrowing costs or declining market confidence.
   

The True Recession Risk Lies in Trade Policy, Not the Dollar Alone​

While dollar movements matter, they’re unlikely to cause a recession on their own. The bigger threat is aggressive trade policy. Additional tariffs, especially if introduced after the current 90-day pause, or an escalation in the US-China trade conflict, could tip the balance. These decisions could undermine investor confidence and business activity—regardless of where the dollar stands.

The dollar is part of the recession puzzle—but not the whole picture. Its overvaluation, dependency on foreign investment, and declining support from global investors could compound economic vulnerabilities. Still, it's policy—especially on tariffs—that could ultimately determine whether the US slides into recession.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 25th April 2025.

Trade Tensions Hurt Confidence Across Europe

Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The latest European confidence indicators highlighted the growing impact of global trade tensions on investor sentiment, particularly within the Eurozone. According to recent surveys, investor confidence has been notably dented, with the services sector showing greater weakness compared to manufacturing. This may be due to U.S. efforts to front-load imports ahead of potential tariff hikes.

Meanwhile, diverging fiscal policies between the UK and the Eurozone have further widened economic gaps. The UK faces limited fiscal flexibility and mounting pressure to stimulate domestic demand, complicating its response to external shocks.

German ZEW Investor Confidence Plummets

Germany's ZEW investor sentiment index plunged in April following the announcement of new U.S. tariffs. The index fell by a staggering 65.6 points to -14.0, reflecting growing pessimism about the economic outlook. While recent political shifts offered short-term relief to market sentiment, uncertainty remains elevated, suggesting this key forward-looking indicator may stay in negative territory.

Eurozone PMI and Ifo Data Show Mixed Signals

Surprisingly, the Eurozone PMI and Germany’s Ifo business climate report showed resilience. Although the composite PMI dropped to a four-month low of 50.1—indicating stagnation rather than contraction—the weakness was concentrated in the services sector. The services PMI fell to 49.7, ending a five-month expansion streak.

Germany’s Ifo survey showed improvements in construction and business sentiment, driven by a rise in the current conditions index. The overall business climate index rose to 86.9 in April, up from 86.7 in March, defying expectations of a decline.

Trade Boost May Be Temporary as Risks Persist
Trade data from February revealed a 22.4% year-over-year jump in Eurozone exports to the U.S., with Ireland’s pharmaceutical-heavy exports surging by 200%. S&P Global noted signs of stockpiling and unplanned orders from U.S. clients trying to stay ahead of tariffs.

However, analysts warn this boost may be short-lived. As tariffs bite and the euro strengthens, European exports risk becoming less competitive. Despite hopes that EU goods could benefit from U.S.-China trade disputes, long-term gains are uncertain. If U.S. firms start to run down inventories, demand may soften.

Germany and EU Infrastructure Investment to Counter Trade Headwinds
Germany’s decision to raise borrowing for infrastructure and defense, alongside EU-wide investment plans, aims to cushion the blow from external shocks. Sentiment in the German construction sector has already improved, according to the Ifo report. While large-scale spending will take time to materialize, early signs show progress in the defense sector.

UK PMI Data Signals Growing Economic Challenges
Across the Channel, the UK economy is facing multiple headwinds. Government finances are strained, and recent fiscal data missed expectations. Although the UK may enjoy lower tariffs post-Brexit, its open economy is more vulnerable to global slowdowns.

Rising labor costs, due to higher National Insurance contributions and minimum wage hikes, have added pressure. The latest S&P Global UK Composite Output Index dropped sharply to 48.2 in April from 51.5, with the Services PMI falling to 48.9—a 27-month low. Manufacturing Output PMI also fell to 44.0, the weakest since mid-2021.

S&P Global attributed this decline to weakened client confidence and the impact of U.S. tariffs. Business outlooks have dimmed, with optimism at its lowest since October 2022. Rising cost burdens have prompted employment cuts, and inflationary pressures persist, despite easing energy prices.

UK Inflation and Rate Outlook: BoE Faces Tough Decisions
The CBI industrial trends survey painted a similarly cautious picture. Although total orders slightly improved, export orders deteriorated. Selling price expectations also rose, reflecting cost pressures.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized risks to growth and warned about the dangers of global economic fragmentation. While markets are pricing in another BoE rate cut, rising wage-driven inflation may keep UK interest rates elevated relative to the Eurozone.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.