HFMarkets: New market analysis services.

[HFM.]

Date: 25th October 2024.

UK Debt Set To Rise: How Will the GBP React?

• The UK Chancellor looks to change Fiscal Policy in order to allow the UK to borrow 70 million GBP more.
• The IMF increases its forecast for the UK economy to recover this year from 0.7% to 1.1%. UK PMI data underachieved on Thursday.
• The NASDAQ increases 0.55% as Tesla’s latest earnings data increase shareholder sentiment.
• The US Dollar Index retraces after increasing in value for 4 consecutive weeks.

GBPUSD – UK To Change Fiscal Policy To Increase Debt Levels!

The GBPUSD exchange rate trades slightly lower during this morning’s asian session but looks to be regaining momentum. In addition to this, the GBPUSD continues to remain below most Moving Averages despite the upward price movement on Thursday. The downward price movement on Thursday was largely due to a decline in the US Dollar and not necessarily the Pound strengthening. For this week, the British Pound has fallen 0.65% against the currency market and traders will closely watch the Pound’s reaction to the UK’s Autumn budget.



The US Dollar is the best performing currency of the past 7 days and is the best performing of the day so far. The US Dollar continues to be supported by significant economic data. This includes the Weekly Unemployment Claims which fell to 227,000, New Home Sales rising to 738,000 and Flash PMI data reading slightly higher than previous expectations.

The Beige Book made public yesterday indicates that economic activity remained steady in September 2024. However, companies reported a modest uptick in hiring, a general easing of inflation pressures, and input costs rising faster than sales prices, which impacted business profitability. Lastly, the Federal Reserve continues to support the US Dollar as the market predicts a 0.25% rate cut.

The Bank of England on the other hand are likely to cut interest rates at the next meeting but it is not clear whether the BoE will cut 0.25% or 0.50%. Meanwhile, investors are watching the Autumn budget set for October 30th with a close eye. The UK Chancellor is looking to change Fiscal Policy in order to allow the UK to borrow 70 million GBP more. This could be a challenge and if global investors are not comfortable with the risk, this could pressure the Pound. This is something also previously seen under the Truss administration, but economists do not expect such a sharp nosedive. Lastly, yesterday’s UK PMI data for both the Services and Manufacturing sectors fell lower than the previous month and lower than current expectations.

However, if the price of the GBPUSD continues to decline, where does technical analysis point to a trigger point? As the price retraces back to the previous swing high, traders will look for the price to regain momentum before speculating a decline. The latest bullish swing measures 0.14%. Therefore if the price falls below 1.29618, investors will consider the momentum an opportunity. This will also push the price back below the 200-bar SMA on the 5-Minute Chart.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 28th October 2024.

Elections Have Consequences: Market Impacts and Economic Outlook.


The world will be on tenterhooks during the two most consequential weeks of the year, and probably for the foreseeable future. The US election looms large and the outcome, including the House and Senate results, will have wide-ranging consequences. But the race remains too close to call which will keep the market nervous.

US data will be closely monitored too with the crucial jobs report ahead. Japan is coming off of Sunday’s election where there is risk the LDP could lose its majority. The BoJ is also due to meet but no policy changes are seen. In the UK, anxieties over another possible “Truss moment” have weighed ahead of the autumn budget report. Eurozone data is likely to provide ammo for ECB doves and hawks alike, to heighten uncertainties over the ECB’s December stance.

US Election Insights​

The November 5 election draws ever nearer and is the focal point. The markets are increasingly nervous over the hotly contested outcome that remains a dead heat — Trump or Harris, and whether there is a clean sweep or a divided Congress. Over the recent weeks attention on the election has pushed data to the background. However, the upcoming October jobs report and major earnings releases are set to capture attention. It is a week of important data, and though the numbers will be mostly lost in the election headlights, they will help set outlooks on the economy and inflation as the FOMC calibrates policy.

This week’s data calendar features:

• October Nonfarm Payroll Report (Friday)
• Advance Q3 GDP (Wednesday)
• Q3 Employment Cost Index (Thursday)
• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Tuesday)
• Personal Income and Consumption Data (Thursday)

The job report is anticipated to show a 140k increase in payrolls, a slowdown from September’s 254k surge. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%. Q3 GDP growth is projected at 3.2%, up from 3.0% in Q2.

Tech Earnings, Treasury Supply Challenges and Market Reactions​

Major earnings reports will fight for attention too. Additionally, the Treasury will sell a record volume of bills and coupons and announce quarterly borrowings and the refunding auctions. Fedspeak is the only thing not on the slate as it goes dark into next week’s FOMC meeting.

Several big tech earnings reports will dominate a heavy calendar including 5 of the “Magnificent 7.” Those include Google and AMD (Tuesday), Meta and Microsoft (Wednesday), Apple, Amazon, and Intel (Thursday). There will be keen interest in the impacts of AI and capex spending. The NASDAQ climbed 0.56% to a new record high Friday after further strong gains on Tesla. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is down from its 47th record peak of 5864 from October 18. The -0.96% decline on the week broke 6 consecutive weeks of gains. And the index just broke a record that dated back to the 1950s where it went 31 sessions without back-to-back losses. So far this earnings season, 35% of the S&P has reported, with 79% beating profit estimates and 58% beating on revenues.

The US Treasury is set to auction a record $663 billion in notes, which could pose challenges for the bond market. The increased supply may lead to higher yields, as the market adjusts to the influx of debt.

The debt managers have already announced $183 bln in 2-, 5-,and 7-year notes, condensed into Monday and Tuesday. This includes $69 bln in 2s and $70 bln in 5s on Monday. Both remain at record levels. Typically the doubling up of auctions is detrimental to both. The $44 bln in 7-year notes is on tap Tuesday, along with the $30 bln 2-year FRN. The market cheapened slightly on Friday, leaving yields near multi-month highs. The 2-year was up 2 bps at 4.097% as the 4.10% made for a solid ceiling and is likely to be threatened this week. The rate held the 4-handle all of last week. The 5- and 7-year rates were up 3 bps to 4.065% and 4.145%, respectively.

Europe Updates​

ECB President Lagarde still did her best to deliver a cautious cut on October 17, but the doves have been out in force since then to demand that the option of a 50 bp move be put on the table at the December meeting. At the moment, it doesn’t look as though there was a majority in favor of a jumbo cut, but with the risks to the growth outlook tilted to the downside, some are eager to bring rates to neutral as soon as possible. Whether rates will have to go below neutral remains to be seen and will also depend on geopolitical developments.

Data releases this week are likely to give both the hawks and the doves something to argue with. Preliminary GDP estimates for the third quarter are due, and data for Germany are likely to confirm that the Eurozone’s largest economy is back in recession. We expect German GDP to have contracted -0.1% q/q (median same) in the third quarter, after a similar contraction in the second quarter of the year. French GDP, however, is set to have risen another 0.2% and Spain is likely to have outperformed once again with growth of 0.6% q/q. Against that background, overall Eurozone GDP growth is set to have held steady at 0.2% q/q (median same).

Confidence data has been mixed so far, and while PMI reports disappointed, the German Ifo reading came in much better than expected. With that in mind, we expect the ESI Economic Confidence reading to nudge up to 96.4 (median 96.3) from 96.2 in the previous month. The labor market has also started to register the uncertain growth outlook and the German seasonally adjusted jobless number is expected to have risen a further 13K (median 15K), which should lift the sa unemployment rate to 6.1% (median same) from 6.0% in September. This is still low by German standards, but will help to keep a lid on wage growth down the line.

Headline inflation, meanwhile, dropped sharply in September and is likely to back up again with the preliminary CPI number for October. Base effects from energy prices and government support schemes have been the main reason for the variations in recent months, and the focus for the ECB and markets remains on core and services price numbers. Those remain far above the ECB’s 2% target, but further confirmation that services price inflation in particular has peaked would add to the arguments in favor of further rate cuts.

The data calendar also has German import prices, and retail sales, as well as additional national CPI and GDP numbers. There are a number of ECB speakers, including Schnabel and Nagel, who are on the hawkish side of the spectrum.

UK Economic Outlook​

As the autumn budget approaches on October 30, uncertainty looms over fiscal policies following past budget mishaps. Following the experience with Truss’ disastrous budget, markets are understandably nervous. Chancellor Reeves has flagged a large hole in this year’s finances that she is unlikely to fill with tax hikes alone. That means higher debt targets and leaves some risk of market volatility around the budget presentation.

Key data releases meanwhile are thin on the ground. The BoE is set to release money supply and lending data early in the week. The final Manufacturing PMI meanwhile is expected to be confirmed at 50.3, which essentially signals stagnation, rather than real expansion across the manufacturing sector.

The coming weeks are critical for economic direction in the US and beyond. The outcomes of the election and major economic reports will set the tone for market reactions and policy adjustments moving forward.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 7th November 2024.

Today’s Highlights & Analysis: Election, BoE & Fed Rate Decisions!

• The SNP500 saw its best post-election day in history. It rose 2.50% on Wednesday.
• Qualcomm beat earnings and revenue expectations adding to the bullish sentiment of the SNP500 and NASDAQ!
• The VIX drops to a 2-month low indicating a higher risk appetite but investors are monitoring higher bond yields which have risen to a 4-month high.
• The US Dollar Index retraces on Thursday morning after increasing to an 18-week high on Wednesday. Investors turn their attention to the Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech this evening.

SNP500 – 2024 Is On Track To Be The Best Year Since 2019 For The SNP500!



The SNP500 continues to trade higher on Thursday as buyers maintain control and hold onto their positions. The SNP500 trades 0.14% higher during this morning’s Asian Session in addition to the 2.50% rise on Wednesday. The market is positively reacting to Trump’s Pro US stance and the fact that the Republicans are likely to hold the presidency, house and senate.

Economists have voiced concerns about a Trump presidency such as the Federal debt rising due to significant tax cuts to both business and citizens. Also in addition to this, tariffs and trade wars in China and Europe can significantly increase inflation. However, it is important to note that this is not what the market is currently pricing into the market. Investors will without doubt be scrutinizing comments from the Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, and hoping for his opinion on the matter. Of course, these comments can create a ripple effect on the stock market.

Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% this evening and a further 0.25% in December. If the Chairman signals a different path, the stock market is likely to witness a higher level of volatility. If the Fed indicates a more hawkish stance there is a higher possibility the SNP500 can witness a large retracement downwards or a full correction back closer to $5800.

A positive indication for the SNP500 continues to be the VIX index which fell a further 0.90% this morning. The remarkably lower VIX index signals a higher risk appetite towards the stock market which increases demand. However, a potential problem is the bond market where yields have risen significantly. Higher bond yields trigger a higher cost of debt which can negatively influence consumer demand. This morning, the US 10-year bond yield fell 24 points which is another positive, but only if the yield continues to fall throughout the day.

Lastly, the quarterly earnings report from Qualcomm adds to the higher sentiment towards the SNP500. Qualcomm’s earnings per share beat expectations by 4.74% and revenue rose almost 900 million compared to the previous quarter. The stock rose more than 10.00% in the last 24-hours supporting the SNP500. Qualcomm’s stocks hold a weight of 0.38% and it is the 45th most influential stock from the SNP500’s 500 components.

Technical analysis continues to point towards a bullish trend due to strong momentum. However, on the 5-minute chart, the price is retracing slightly lower as we edge closer towards the European Cash Open. Therefore, ideally investors may wish for bullish momentum to be regained prior to speculating another buy trade. For example, if the price rises above $5,943.84.

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EURUSD – The Euro Continues To Struggle But The USD Retraces On Thursday!

The Euro continues to witness a lack of demand and is again one of the weakest currencies of the day. The Euro index is currently trading 0.20% higher which is only better than the US Dollar Index and Swiss Franc. The best performing currencies of the day are the New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar.



Investors are hoping the Federal Reserve chairman will comment on potential tariffs, tax cuts, deportations of migrant workers and a lower oil price. If the Federal Reserve advises the regulator to be more cautious about taking into consideration interest rate cuts in the future due to the above, investors may increase exposure to the US Dollar. However, this can negatively impact the stock market and the value of bonds.

The US Dollar Index is declining on Thursday forming a retracement measuring almost 0.50%. Therefore, investors should note that the volatility is also coming from the USD, not solely the Euro. The decline is understandable considering the strong rise in the US Dollar post election, which saw the currency rise a whopping 2.00%. A key factor for the US Dollar will now be the Chairman’s comments in tonight’s press conference and the impending rate cut in December. Thereafter, investors will focus on the US inflation rate and what it would mean for the monetary policy.

From the European side, the main developments are the political tensions from Europe’s largest economy. Germany’s government has fallen into turmoil after Chancellor Olaf Scholz unexpectedly dismissed his finance minister. Christian Lindner was ousted from the three-party coalition in a high-level government meeting on Wednesday evening, following months of intense internal conflicts that have fueled the administration’s declining popularity. Experts believe Germany will also announce snap elections due to the political turmoil.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 8th November 2024.

Can Trump Bring Oil Prices Down To $40? NASDAQ Renews Its Highs!

• The NASDAQ, Dow Jones and SNP500 continue to renew their all time highs for a second consecutive day.
• NVIDIA tops the NASDAQ as the most influential stock, surpassing Apple and Microsoft.
• Crude Oil prices break below the ascending triangle pattern as investors closely monitor any signals from President-elect Trump on how he plans to bring oil prices down.
• The Federal Reserve indicates that it will keep lowering interest rates but plans to pause for an extended period at a certain point.

NASDAQ – The NASDAQ Continues To Renew Price Highs!

The NASDAQ continues to increase in value and renew its all time high for a second consecutive day. This week the index has risen 5.70% and investors are contemplating if the index will retrace this Friday due to the large impulse wave. However, investors will be looking for larger downward momentum before determining whether a retracement throughout the day is possible.





One of this week’s best performing stocks for the NASDAQ which is gaining more momentum and attention is Tesla. During the presidential race, Elon Musk, the company’s CEO, endorsed Trump’s candidacy, contributing $75 million to his campaign. In return, Donald Trump pledged to appoint Musk to lead the Commission on Government Efficiency, which oversees budget expenditures. This appointment would enable Tesla Inc. and Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) to secure new contracts. Over the past decade, collaboration with the government has brought the company $15.4 billion.

Investors continue to also evaluate the comments from the Federal Reserve on Thursday evening. At a press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that while inflation remains slightly above the 2.0% target, monetary authorities are confident it is under control. However, the growth rate of consumer prices, excluding food and energy costs, is still “somewhat elevated.” Powell added that despite the current easing of monetary policy, officials are prepared to pause if macroeconomic data suggest the need.

The Fed is also considering a scenario in which borrowing costs hold steady at current levels during its December meeting. Powell further noted that actions by the incoming government and Congress could affect the economic outlook over time, and forecasts of these impacts will be incorporated into models that assess various aspects of the US economic system.

As mentioned above, investors are taking into consideration if the price will retrace after such a strong upward trend throughout the week. However, elements do still continue to point to short term upward price movement. For example, the VIX Index continues to fall as have bond yields. The VIX index trades 3.00% lower on Friday and the 10-Year Bond Yields has fallen 37 points.

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Crude Oil – Can Trump Achieve $40 Per Barrel?



The price movement of Crude Oil over the past week has formed an ascending triangle pattern. However, the support level was broken this morning after the corrective wave surpassed 1.75%.

Oil traders worry that the new US President-elect will put considerable pressure on the Chinese economy. This can potentially lead to a sharp drop in oil demand from the world’s largest importer. The EIA’s weekly report yesterday showed an increase in oil reserves by 2.149 million barrels, much higher than the expected 0.300 million barrels, with gasoline reserves rising by 0.412 million barrels and distillates by 2.947 million barrels. The decline could have been steeper, but Hurricane Rafael had closed 17% of oil production capacity in the Mexican Gulf.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 11th November 2024.

Bitcoin Skyrockets to $81k; Asian Stocks Down; Markets weigh the risk of “Trump-tariffs”.


Asia & European Sessions:

• Bitcoin surged past $81,000 for the first time (94% higher for 2024), fueled by President-elect Donald Trump’s decisive victory, winning all seven US battleground states, including Arizona. The digital-asset industry, which invested over $100 million in pro-crypto candidates, celebrated the outcome.
• Trump pledged to make the US a hub for digital assets, including plans for a strategic Bitcoin stockpile and appointing crypto-friendly regulators.
• Dogecoin skyrocketed to highest price since 2021 (promoted by Trump supporter Elon Musk).
• Japanese indexes rallied as discussions at the last BoJ meeting focused on a cautious approach to additional rate cuts.
• Asian shares fell following concerns that China’s debt swap program may not be adequate, alongside data indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the world’s second-largest economy. Investor sentiment is also dampened by declining foreign direct investment especially after Donald Trump’s presidential victory injected fresh uncertainty over tariffs.
• China’s inflation reports were weak, reflecting further deflation in wholesale prices. China’s trade surplus is poised to reach a new record this year. If the gap between exports and imports keeps expanding at its current rate, it could approach $1 trillion, based on Bloomberg’s calculations. These are ominous signs for the economy that continues to struggle.

Financial Markets Performance:

• European stock markets are mostly higher, with DAX and FTSE100 posting gains of 1.0% and 0.6% respectively.
• Bond markets are closed in the US and Canada today and while equity markets are open, trading conditions are likely to be quieter than usual.
• US equity futures are currently higher, led by a 0.4% rise in the NASDAQ.
• The USDIndex climbed back above 105.
• EURUSD drifts to 1.069 and GBPUSD retests once again a break below 1.2900.
• The USDJPY rebounds and extends again to 153.60 for the first time since July.
• Oil prices steadied at $70 lows following their largest drop in nearly 2 weeks, pressured by a weak outlook in China. Crude traders are considering global demand prospects for 2025, potential impacts from Donald Trump’s presidential win, and geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. A global surplus is expected next year, and influential outlooks, including OPEC’s report on Tuesday, are anticipated.
• Gold remains under pressure, as the US election outcome boosted the US Dollar and prompted a reversal of haven flows. The precious metal is currently trading at $2669 per ounce, slightly above the lows seen in the aftermath of the election and before the Fed cut rates.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 12th November 2024.

Market Buzz: Trump Trade Impact!


“Trump trade” has boosted the US Dollar and US stocks, but Trump’s policies may have less favorable effects on global assets. Trump’s plan to raise tariffs is expected to negatively impact economies worldwide, especially exporters like China.

Asia & European Sessions:

• Bitcoin Surge! Bitcoin broke $90K, driven by Trump trade once again. Bitcoin is up roughly 110% in 2024, helped by robust demand for dedicated US ETFs, interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and Trump’s cryptofriendly agenda.
• Crypto market capitalization has exceeded its pandemic-era peak, reaching $3.1 trillion. Traders are betting on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end, according to data from the Deribit exchange.
• Open interest — or outstanding contracts — for CME Group Inc. futures for Bitcoin and second-ranked Ether (ETHUSD) scaled records on Monday, a sign of growing engagement by US institutional investors.
• Asian shares dropped, alongside European and US equity futures, as traders evaluated the implications of President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda and potential cabinet choices. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for a third consecutive day, driven by rising Treasury yields amid concerns that Trump’s proposed tax cuts could increase inflation.
• There are also reports that Trump is considering two individuals for prominent roles in his administration with track records of criticizing China.
• DAX and FTSE100 are down -1.1% and -0.5% respectively, after a pickup in German HICP inflation and higher than expected UK wage growth dampened easing expectations.
• Investors await the US CPI report for insights into the Fed’s easing path, as Trump’s inflationary policies may lead to fewer rate cuts.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex continues to rise and is currently at 105.75. It hit a 1-year high.
• EURUSD drifts to 1.0620 and GBPUSD is in a sell off, currently at 1.2800.
• Oil prices fell after their biggest 2-week decline, amid a weak demand outlook from China, a stronger US Dollar, and concerns over a potential oversupply.
• Crude oil has traded within a narrow range since mid-last month, influenced by Middle East tensions, the US election, and OPEC+ output decisions.
• Gold remains under pressure and is currently at just $2604.36 per ounce. It hit a one-month low, down 5% since Trump’s election victory, as a strong dollar and US equity rotation pressured the metal. Gold’s decline was also technical, breaking below the 50-day moving average, causing funds to cover long positions. Despite recent drops, gold remains up 25% for the year, supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 13th November 2024.

Stocks Cautious Amid Upcoming US CPI & Yen Pressures.



Asia & European Sessions:

• Stock markets are turning cautious as markets prepare for Trump’s presidency. Growing concern that tariffs will disrupt global trade and fuel inflation has been denting sentiment.
• Indexes declined and Japan and Hong Kong, European markets are posting modest gains and US futures are in the red, as yields rise.
• Wall Street stumbled as the Trump trade ran out of steam after 5 straight days of gains on the S&P500 and Dow, along with 4 days of gains on the NASDAQ to more record highs.
• 

• The Yen weakened beyond 155 against the US Dollar for the first time since July, raising concerns that Japan might intervene in the currency market to curb its depreciation. A Bloomberg poll of 53 economists last month suggested intervention could be triggered at 150, with a median forecast of 160.
• A spike in Treasury yields is pressuring the Yen, with the two-year yield hitting its highest mark since July, driven by Trump’s economic agenda boosting US rates and the reduced cost of hedging due to the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts.
• The upcoming US data on CPI, PPI, and Retail sales could accelerate the Yen’s decline if the Ministry of Finance doesn’t step in with verbal warnings. Prolonged yen weakness may push the Bank of Japan to consider earlier rate hikes.
• Concerns over sticky high inflation ahead of the CPI report and concerns over potentially inflationary aspects of Trump’s fiscal policies exacerbated selling.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex is settling above 106.
• Oil declined -0.09% to $67.98 per barrel with Trump’s “drill baby drill” reverberating.
• Gold lost -0.82% to $2597.26 per ounce as interest rates surged. The rising Dollar also impacted commodities.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 15th November 2024.

Treasuries cheapen slightly, Wall Street slips after Powell’s remarks.


In the US session, the comments from Fed Chair Powell suggesting the FOMC might be pausing rate cuts weighed on Treasuries and Wall Street, keeping the US Dollar firm. Powell said the data are not showing the need for the FOMC to hurry with rate cuts. His remarks followed on the heels of the stronger than expected PPI and jobless claims data.

Asia & European Sessions:

• US: Producer prices exceeded expectations, and jobless claims hit their lowest since May. Policymakers called for caution on rate cuts amid strong economic performance, lingering inflation, and market uncertainty.
• Equity Futures Decline in US and Europe: Futures for Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.7%, and S&P500 contracts extended losses after the benchmark declined 0.6%.
• Asian markets, in contrast, saw gains, with MSCI’s regional index rising on signs of economic resilience in China.
• China’s retail sales grew at their fastest pace in eight months, although the CSI 300 Index fell.
• Emerging markets equities were set for their worst week since June 2022, while emerging markets currencies neared year-to-date losses.
• US automakers like Tesla and Rivian dropped on reports that Trump might remove the $7,500 EV tax credit.Walt Disney shares surged after reporting better-than-expected profits.
• Bitcoin slid back to $87k territory, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there was no need to hurry interest-rate cuts. That left the token about $6,500 below a record high set on Wednesday. Markets seem to be cooling down at the end of the week.
• On the geopolitical front, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed interest in resolving the conflict with Ukraine. This announcement came alongside President Trump’s endorsement of peaceful solutions, raising market hopes for a ceasefire and potential economic recovery in Eastern Europe. Analysts noted that an end to the conflict could spur economic activity and increase demand for cryptocurrency services.
• MicroStrategy made a significant $2 billion acquisition, adding nearly 25,000 BTC to its reserves. Institutional investments like these are seen as potentially stabilizing Bitcoin’s volatility and enhancing liquidity.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The US Dollar was set to gain over 1.4% for the week despite a slight drop on Friday. Gains were driven by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments about a gradual approach to rate cuts.
• The Yen recovered following Japan’s Finance Minister’s statement on monitoring the forex market. It is currently at 155.75.
• Oil headed for a weekly loss, impacted by a stronger Dollar and oversupply concerns for next year.
• Gold remained near a 2-month low. Bullion is currently at $2567, as the USDIndex remains on an uptrend and flirts with the 107 level. The precious metal is still around 25% higher than a year ago. Silver is once again underperforming and copper, and steel prices are also falling as markets weigh the impact of weak Chinese growth.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 18th November 2024.

Monday Market Analysis and the Week Ahead!

• The NASDAQ inches up ahead of NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings report. NVIDIA will release their earnings report on Wednesday.
• Analysts expect NVIDIA’s Earnings Per Share to rise from $0.68 to $0.74 and Revenue to rise by $3 billion.
• The US Dollar remains strong as investors contemplate whether the Federal Reserve will pause in December. The Fed Chairman advises the US economy remains strong and the employment sector stable.
• The GBP was the best-performing currency in the Asian session, but will this continue as London starts trading?

NASDAQ – Investors Turn Their Attention To NVIDIA Earnings!

The NASDAQ fell for 5 consecutive days last week due to the US consumer and producer inflation striking fear amongst investors. The US inflation rate rose from 2.4% to 2.6% and the producer inflation from 1.9% to 2.4%. In addition to this the Federal Reserve advises the US economy remains strong and the employment sector stable. As a result, only 65% of investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, particularly lower than the previous weeks.

Though, certain key events could prompt higher demand and investors to contemplate buying the NASDAQ at the lower price. The higher demand is also in line with what many price theories would suggest. The NASDAQ’s average resistance point from October is at $20,511.29. The price has now dropped below this level and many price theories indicate that a retracement will end around this price. However, analysts would also urge investors to consider what else will drive investors to buy, not solely the price.



For this reason, investors will be closely watching NVIDIA’s Quarterly Earnings Report on Wednesday. NVIDIA is the NASDAQ’s most influential stock holding a weight of 8.69% and is already up 0.52% in pre-hours trading. The market expects NVIDIA’s Earnings Per Share to rise from $0.68 to $0.74 and Revenue to rise by $3 billion. If the company beats these expectations, the stock is likely to rise and can support the NASDAQ. On Monday, investors will keep this in mind while trading.

Besides the upcoming earnings report investors are also monitoring the volatility in the Bond Market and the VIX Index. Bond yields continue to rise which is a concern for the stock market. The US 10 Year Treasury is up 14 points, however, the VIX index is 1.45% lower which is known to be positive. Buyers will be hoping for the VIX to remain low and for bond yields to drop. Whereas, sellers will be hoping for bond yields to rise further and the VIX to correct back upwards.

GBPUSD – Will The Cable Retrace After A Seven-Day Decline?

The GBPUSD has declined for seven consecutive days which is a price movement which has not happened before in 2024. In addition to this, the exchange rate has fallen back to the support level from June and August 2024. Therefore investors are considering whether the GBPUSD will retrace slightly higher on Monday. A retracement in the short term could potentially take the price to the resistance level at 1.26810 or 1.27190.



A retracement is possible according to analysts as the GBP is the best performing currency of the day and due to the low price. In addition to this, the US Dollar is not expected to be influenced by any economic releases until Friday, when the US as well as the UK will release their Purchasing Managers’ Index, whereas the UK will release the Monetary Policy Report tomorrow morning and their Retail Sales within the week.

In terms of potential areas to consider speculating a buy, some traders may take into consideration the breakout level at 1.26270 or once 65% of the previous swing has been made. This would be at the 1.26314 price.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 19th November 2024.

S&P 500 Earnings: Analysts Predict Walmart Will Outperform.

• The Great British Pound retraces upwards breaking the Dollar’s seven-day winning streak.
• Meta stocks continue to fall after the European Commission imposes a fine of 797 million Euros due to unfair conditions.
• Susan Collins, the chairperson of the Federal Reserve of Boston, said that a 0.25% rate cut could be considered in December, but it depends on forthcoming economic data.
• The Federal Reserve indicates a rate cut would depend fully on November’s NFP and inflation rate.

GBPUSD – Lack of Confidence In The Great British Pound!

The GBPUSD ended the day 0.45% higher, mainly gaining momentum within the US trading session. According to technical analysts, the decline was largely due to a break in the US Dollar’s trend but also investors temporarily purchasing the significant dip in the exchange rate. However, in order for the bullish price movement to maintain its upward momentum it is important for the GBP to obtain support from a further price driver.



When looking at technical analysis, even with the upward price movement which rose to yesterday’s mentioned targets, the price continues to move in line with bearish trend theories. In order to break out of the pattern, the GBPUSD will need to push higher than the 1.27210 level. However, this would require Dollar weakness as well as investor confidence in the GBP returning. Investors’ confidence in the GBP has taken a dip since the UK Autumn Budget and fear of possible Trump US-UK tariffs. Technical indicators pointing towards a potential further rise are likely to arise if the GBPUSD increases above 1.26791.

Investors are scrutinizing recent US Federal Reserve comments, adding uncertainty to future actions. Before the election, experts expected continued rate cuts, but Donald Trump’s victory and plans for tax cuts and higher import duties have reduced this likelihood. According to analysts, a reduction in the Fed’s Fund Rate will primarily depend on November’s employment and inflation data. The Fed will particularly wish to see inflation fall in order to cut a further 0.25%. Yesterday, the CME Fed-Watch tool illustrated a 65% chance of a cut. Today the possibility of a cut has fallen to 58%.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated there’s no urgency to lower rates, while Boston Fed Chair Susan Collins suggested a possible December cut of 25 basis points, depending on data. In contrast, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee hinted at further reductions, totaling 125 basis points by 2025.

---

USA500 – Investors Expect Walmart to Beat Earnings Expectations!

The US stock market on Monday was a day of two halves and did not point towards a clear trend. Nonetheless, the downward price movement clearly lost momentum. The reason for the downward trend was primarily due to the higher inflation rate and lower possibility of another interest rate cut in December. However, certain news from individual companies also pressured the index.



Alphabet continues to come under pressure from the DOJ to sell Chrome in its search to crack down on Google’s monopoly. In addition to this, Meta came under pressure as the EU imposes another fine of 797M Euros.

However, investors are hoping the sentiment towards US companies and stocks will change with the release of Walmart’s quarterly earnings report this morning and NVIDIA’s tomorrow evening. Of the SNP’s 500 components, Walmart is the 21st most influential stock, while NVIDIA is the most influential holding a weight of 7.03%. If both reports are better than expectations, the SNP500 may outperform both the NASDAQ and Dow Jones.

Walmart has beat their earnings expectations over the past 3 quarters. Investors are expecting a slightly lower revenue and earnings per share this quarter. However, if higher than expected, the stock is likely to rise further. Investors are anticipating the earnings to beat expectations, hence why the stock is trading 1.61% higher during this morning’s pre-trading hours. So far this year, the stock has risen 59%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 20th November 2024.

Market Rebounds as Putin Signals Readiness for Peace Talks; Focus Shifts to NVIDIA!

• US Stocks drop to a 2-week low after Ukraine fired US-made missiles into Russia, but rebound in the US session.
• Putin updates nuclear doctrine, allowing Russia to strike Ukraine if it uses weapons from nuclear-armed nations.
• Walmart again beat earnings expectations pushing the stock 3.00% higher. Earnings Per Share beat expectations by 8.00%.
• The Japanese Yen loses momentum and corrects back to previous lows. The US Dollar maintains strong bullish momentum.
• UK Inflation Rate rises from 1.7% to 2.3% supporting the GBP despite budget concerns continuing.
• NVIDIA is set to release their quarterly earnings report after market close. NVIDIA stock has risen more than 5.00% indicating the market expects a beat.

NASDAQ – All Eyes On NVIDIA Earnings Report!

The NASDAQ ended Tuesday 0.71% higher despite coming under significant pressure during the Asian and European session. The NASDAQ fell 1.20% during the day’s first two sessions due to geopolitical tensions triggering a much lower risk appetite. This is due to the US as well as other countries agreeing to allow Ukraine to strike Russia with foreign made weapons. Ukraine quickly took advantage of this by firing ATACMS into Russia. Russia responded by changing their nuclear weapon use doctrine.

Here we can see why the global stock market fell rapidly. However, why did the market recover during the US session?



During the US session, the risk appetite and confidence of the market improved as the White House confirmed nothing changes with Russia changing their Nuclear Weapons Doctrine. In addition to this, President Putin also said that he would be willing to start peace talks with President Elect Trump. Lastly, the market also took the opportunity to purchase the lower price since NVIDIA’s earnings report is imminent and Walmart already beat their earnings expectations.

Walmart is not a component of the NASDAQ, but has improved the sentiment towards the US stock market. NVIDIA, which is on the NASDAQ, is set to release their quarterly earnings report after market close. NVIDIA stock rose 4.89% yesterday and a further 0.47% this morning indicating the market expects a beat. Analysts expect the company’s Earnings Per Share to rise from $0.68 to $0.75 and revenue from $30.04 billion to $33.14 billion. As no US economic data is set to be made public throughout the day, investors are solely concentrating on geopolitical tensions and earnings.

The price of the NASDAQ rose above the 75-bar exponential moving average on the 2-hour chart for the first time since 14th. Traders will be monitoring whether the index will be able to maintain momentum above this level and if the price may also rise above the 100-bar SMA. Traders will be waiting for the NASDAQ to regain bullish momentum and if so will act accordingly. Buy signals are likely to rise if the price increases above $20,764.30 and intensifies above $20,777.93.

GBPUSD – UK Inflation Rises Above Expectations!

The price of the GBPUSD increased in value taking the exchange rate to a 1-week high, but concerns remain according to analysts. The exchange rate is trading 0.30% higher after the UK made public their latest inflation rate. The UK inflation rate rose from 1.7% to 2.3% which is higher than previous expectations and considerably higher than the previous month.



The GBP is currently the best performing currency with the Pound index trading 0.21% higher. However, the second best performing is the US Dollar Index which is trading 0.14% higher. Therefore, investors need to be cautious that a retrace or correction is still possible while the US Dollar Index remains high.

Currently the Pound is coming under pressure from the Autumn Budget and from farming strikes which are continuing. However, comments from the Bank of England could support the currency. The BoE warns that planned National Insurance hikes in the Labour budget may drive up prices, slow wage growth, and reduce hiring. Significant inflation could force prolonged tight monetary policy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 21th November 2024.

Gold Regains Momentum as NVIDIA Delivers a Revenue Surge!

• NVIDIA beat earnings expectations, and nearly doubled revenue on an annual basis.
• NVIDIA stocks dip slightly despite strong earnings and a strong forecast for the current quarter. Analysts expect market participants to purchase the dip.
• The Japanese Yen wins back some ground as Bank of Japan Governor indicates the regulator will be willing to hike to support the FX market.
• Gold, Silver and other Metals all rise due to predictions of high retail and institutional demand and geopolitical tensions remaining high.

NASDAQ – NVIDIA Surpasses Earnings Expectations!

The NASDAQ took a sudden dip on Wednesday measuring 1.50%, however, investors quickly took the opportunity to purchase at the lower price as most indicators fell to give an oversold indication. As a result, the NASDAQ ended the day only slightly lower than the open price, but downward momentum remains this morning.



The downward momentum is partially due to geopolitical tensions which are on the rise. Yesterday, Ukraine fired UK-made missiles into Russia and fired US-made the day before. There are also reports and speculations that Russia has sent ICB Missiles into Ukraine for the first time. However, reports are not confirmed, and there are signs of certain stocks recovering.

Currently, there is no economic data which is driving the lack of demand, therefore investors are mainly concentrating on NVIDIA earnings. NVIDIA beat earnings expectations by 8.50% and revenue by 5.90%. Investors were particularly impressed by the significantly higher revenue which has almost doubled annually. In addition to this, the forecast given for the current quarter came in relatively strong. Lastly, the CEO, Jenson Huang, said to Bloomberg that demand exceeds supply but the company is setting in place measures to boost supply in order to meet the high level of demand.

Taking into consideration the strong earnings, positive tone and upbeat forecasts for the coming quarter, many may wonder, “why is the stock declining 2.50% during this morning’s Asian session?”. This is partially due to the lower risk appetite, but also due to certain forecast expectations for NVIDIA not being met. The average NVIDIA forecast expectations from Wall Street firms was $37.1 billion, which NVIDIA comfortably surpassed.

However, certain firms had expectations as high as $41 billion. Based on these higher expectations, the company underachieved and could trigger a lack of demand from this sector of Wall Street. Though many analysts continue to expect shareholders to purchase the lower price as long as the stock market will remain favorable.

---

EURJPY – BOJ To Consider Hike!

The EURJPY declines for a second consecutive day, particularly gaining bearish momentum after this morning’s Bank of Japan press conference. The main takeaway from the press conference was that the Governor told journalists that the BOJ was willing to hike interest rates in the upcoming months but decisions will be made meeting by meeting.



The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates in July was influenced in part by the weak Yen, which had driven up import costs and inflation. At the Europlace Financial Forum in Tokyo, Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that exchange-rate fluctuations are a key consideration in shaping economic and inflation forecasts. He noted that the central bank carefully examines what is driving these currency changes when assessing their impact.

The EURJPY now trades below the 75-Bar Exponential Moving Average and below the 50.00 on the RSI. In addition to this, the exchange rate continues to form lower swing lows while the Euro underperforms against most currencies. These indications point towards a potential downward price movement.

---

Gold – Geopolitical Tensions Send Gold on a Bullish Path!

Gold has increased in value for a fourth consecutive day, driven largely by geopolitical tensions. Additionally, the absence of significant US economic news has left markets uncertain about the Federal Reserve’s next move. Gold is currently witnessing an active buy signal from most momentum-based indicators due to the strong bullish momentum.



For example, traders are able to see the price trading above the Bollinger Band, within a bullish moving average crossover and significantly high on most oscilators. However, investors should note as the price increases, the asset can become overbought and this may trigger a retracement, a correction or sideways price movement.

In terms of geopolitical tensions, hopes for a Middle East ceasefire are being tempered by Russia’s revision of its nuclear doctrine, which aims to strengthen its borders after the US-approved long-range strikes from Ukraine reached deep into Russian territory. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s re-election has yet to significantly influence the conflict, though markets remain optimistic about potential positive developments following his January 20 inauguration.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 22nd November 2024.

BTC flirts with $100K, Stocks higher, Eurozone PMI signals recession risk.

Asia & European Sessions:

• Geopolitical risks are back in the spotlight on fears of escalation in the Ukraine-Russia after Russia reportedly used a new ICBM to retaliate against Ukraine’s use of US and UK made missiles to attack inside Russia.
• The markets continue to assess the election results as President-elect Trump fills in his cabinet choices, with the key Treasury Secretary spot still open.
• The Fed’s rate path continues to be debated with a -25 bp December cut seen as 50-50.
• Earnings season is coming to an end after mixed reports, though AI remains a major driver.
• Profit taking and rebalancing into year-end are adding to gyrations too.
• Wall Street rallied, led by the Dow’s 1.06% broadbased pop. The S&P500 advanced 0.53% and the NASDAQ inched up 0.03%.
• Asian stocks rose after Nvidia’s rally. Nikkei added 1% to 38,415.32 after the Tokyo inflation data slowed to 2.3% in October from 2.5% in the prior month, reaching its lowest level since January. The rally was also supported by chip-related stocks tracked Nvidia.
• Overnight-indexed swaps indicate that it’s certain the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its policy rate by 50 basis points on Nov. 27, with a 22% chance of a 75 basis points reduction.
• European stocks futures climbed even though German Q3 GDP growth revised down to 0.1% q/q from the 0.2% q/q reported initially.
• Cryptocurrency market has gained approximately $1 trillion since Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 election. Recent announcement for the SEC boosted cryptos. Chair Gary Gensler will step down on January 20, the day Trump is set to be inaugurated. Gensler has pushed for more protections for crypto investors. MicroStrategy Inc.’s plans to accelerate purchases of the token, and the debut of options on US Bitcoin ETFs also support this rally.
• Trump’s transition team has begun discussions on the possibility of creating a new White House position focused on digital asset policy.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The US Dollar recovered overnight and closed at 107.00.
• Bitcoin currently at 99,300, flirting with a run toward the 100,000 level.
• The EURUSD drifts below 1.05, the GBPUSD dips to June’s bottom at 1.2570, while USDJPY rebounded to 154.94.
• The AUDNZD spiked to 2-year highs amid speculation the RBNZ will cut the official cash rate by more than 50 bps next week.
• Oil surged 2.12% to $70.46.
• Gold spiked to 2,697 after escalation alerts between Russia and Ukraine. Heightened geopolitical tensions drove investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold has surged by 30% this year. Haven demand balanced out the pressure from a strong USD following mixed US labor data. Silver rose 0.9% to 31.38, while palladium increased by 0.9% to 1,040.85 per ounce. Platinum remained unchanged.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.