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[HFM.]

Date : 9th September 2022.

Market Update – September 9 – USD Sinks, Yen & BTC Rally.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

• USDIndex – Slumps as YEN & EUR spike. A brief rally back to 110.00, faded following ECB’s hawkish 75bp hike and similarly Hawkish comments from both Lagarde and Powell. Trades at 108.90. Comments from Japanese officials lift the YEN and weak Chinese inflation data exposes demand weakness.
• EUR – ECB moved by 75bp and suggested more significant hikes to come. EUR rallied back to through Parity and trades at 1.0065 now.
• JPY having rejected 145.00, combined comments from Suzuki, Matsuno & Kuroda lifts the YEN and the pair trades at 142.90.
• GBP 1.1500 support held yesterday and a follow through move today takes Cable to 1.1600 resistance.
• Stocks US stocks moved higher again as Dollar & Yields cooled (S&P500 4006) FUTS trade at 4011. Asian stock markets have rallied, and European FUTS are little changed, the FTSE100 up 0.3%.

• USOil recovered from $81.40 lows to $83.50 now on chatter of more supply issues. 20-day moving average sits at $90.00.
• Gold – also rallied to $1725 and holds the key $1700 at $1721 now.
• BTC – rallied higher as the ETH merge (offering a 99.9% reduction in power consumption!!). Spiked from $18.5k on Wednesday to $20.6k now.

Overnight & Today – Canadian jobs report, EU energy meeting, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Evans, Waller & George.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+1.31%). Continues to rally from a test of 0.6700 on Wednesday, trades at 0.6850 now. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram negative & signal line positive & rising, RSI 79.22 & OB, H1 ATR 0.00142, Daily ATR 0.00850.





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 12th September 2022.

Market Update – September 12 – USD slips again, EUR lifts, Stocks firm.

• USDIndex – Slips again as EUR and YEN see demand. Final FedSpeak remained Hawkish as news blackout starts. 88-90% chance of 75 bp hike up from 57% last week.
• EUR – ECB looking at 2% interest rates (currently 0.75%) to bring inflation to 2% target (currently 9.1%). 2024 exceptions 2.4% and 2% by 2025. Market expects 2-3 more rate hikes into December. Trades at 1.0100 now.
• JPY Govt spokesman (Kihara) – need to take steps to curb “excessive” Yen declines, stopped short of calling for BOJ intervention. However, USDJPY rallied from test of 142.00 Friday to 143.25 now.
• GBP Trades at 1.1643 despite miss for GDP earlier. London remains muted (politics suspended) but open ahead of Queen’s funeral next Monday (bank holiday).
• Stocks US stocks moved higher again as Dollar & Yields cooled (S&P500 4067) FUTS trade at 4076. Asian stock markets have rallied too, and European FUTS are higher pre-open.

• USOil topped at $87.50 on Friday on more chatter of supply issues. Trades at 86.30 now. 20-day moving average sits at $90.00.
• Gold – also rallied to $1728 and holds the key $1700 at $1720 now.
• BTC – rallied higher again, touching $22.2k earlier from $18.5k lows last week. Trades at 21.7k now.

Overnight & Today – UK Monthly GDP missed (0.25 vs 0.5%), ECB Survey of Analysts, Speeches from ECB’s Schnabel & de Guindos.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURJPY (+1.01%). Continues to rally from a test of 142.75 on Friday, trades at 144.80 now. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 72.56 & OB, H1 ATR 0.00142, Daily ATR 0.00850.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 13th September 2022.

Market Update – September 13 – Cooler USD & Stocks Higher Ahead of CPI.

• USDIndex – Slips (108.00 tested) for a 5th straight day, lifting EUR & GBP. Fed Funds Futures back to 90% chance of 75 bp (third consecutive) hike. 10-yr Bond Auction was weak, only filled after it hit 3.33% (2.76% last time). “Higher for longer” mantra from Reuters Poll¹. Has Inflation peaked ?
• EUR – Trades at 1.0135 now from a test of 1.0200 yesterday.
• JPY markets not convinced BOJ intervention is imminent. Although Yen up today against others still weak vs. USD, touched 143.50 yesterday and holds 142.30 now.
• GBP traded over 1.1700 yesterday and holds 1.1723 now, following good jobs data. London remains muted (politics suspended) but open ahead of Queen’s funeral September 19 (Bank Holiday).
• Stocks US stocks moved higher again as Dollar & Yields cooled (S&P500 +1.06% 4110) FUTS trade at 4121. Nasdaq best performer (APPL +3.85%, PTON +7.18%). Asian stock markets have rallied too, and European FUTS are higher pre-open.

• USOil topped at $89.00 on Monday on more chatter of supply issues and possible easing of geopolitical tensions. Trades at $86.75 now. 20-day moving average sits at $89.00.
• Gold – also rallied to $1735 and holds over $1720 now.
• BTC – rallied higher too and holds at $22.3k.

Overnight & Today – UK Jobs, (Wages beat & Unemployment Rate fell back, Claimant Count reversed sharply (+20.8k) German HICP (steady at 8.8%). To come German ZEW and US CPI.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.51%) Signs the 6-week rally from 90.00, maybe cooling. Topped at 98.45 earlier back under 98.00 to 97.76 now. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI neutral 43.20, H1 ATR 0.174, Daily ATR 0.972.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 14th September 2022.

Market Update – September 14 – Inflation IS Sticky – Risk Off.

• USDIndex – Exploded higher (to110)ending a 4-day dip. US CPI much hotter than expected. Fed Funds Futures – a 34% chance of 100bp – from 0% this time yesterday. Inflation may still have peaked but it is NOT receding as quickly as some expected, Inflation is ALWAYS sticky and often takes longer to get under control.

• EUR – Trades at 0.9980 now from a test of 0.9950 yesterday, 1.0000 resistance.
• JPY BOJ apparently conducting rate checks ahead of intervention. USDJPY hit 145.00 yesterday from 142.00 and trades at 143.75 now following the BOJ chatter.
• GBP traded over 1.1700 yesterday ahead of the US data, but tanked under 1.1500 to 1.1485 and holds at 1.1500 now.
• Stocks US stocks had their worst day since June 2020 (S&P500 -4.32% 177pts 3932) FUTS trade at 3940. NASDAQ worst performer (-5.16%) Asian stock markets down over -2.5%, with European FUTS showing some resilience (-0.4%).

• USOil topped at $89.00 again on Tuesday, crashing to the key $85.00 level before recovering to $87.00 now. 20-day moving average sits at $89.00.
• Gold – also tested lower under $1700 from $1730 and holds at $1700 now.
• BTC – slumped from $22.7 highs to $19.8k and holds at $20.2k now.

Overnight & Today – UK inflation a tick lighter at 9.9% vs 10.0% & 10.1% last month, US PPI, New Zealand GDP, Speeches from European Commission State of Union Address & ECB’s Lane.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.87%) The BOJ gossip and risk off mood has lifted safe haven YEN. Collapsed under 98.00, 97.00 & 96.50. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 20.85 & OB, H1 ATR 0.241, Daily ATR 0.972.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 15th September 2022.

Market Update – September 15 – USD Holds at Highs, Stocks Flat.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

• USDIndex – Remains bid and back to test 109.85. US Mortgages over 6%, (Highest since 2008), 2/30yr. yields most inverted since 2000. 2/10’s 45 pts inverted. INFLATION the only story in town. Key next week will be the Fed’s new forecasts, and especially the dot plot and what it suggests about the terminal rate. Fed funds futures point to about a 4.4% rate in early spring.
• EUR – Trades at 0.9964 now and remains capped by Parity 1.0000 resistance. Lane yesterday suggested that another 75 bp rate hike is not a done deal. EU is looking for $140 billion for Winter Energy support.
• JPY BOJ intervention not imminent. Katayama: Japan lacks effective means to combat Yen’s sharp falls . USDJPY back to 143.75, 145.00 remains vital resistance.
• GBP back to key 1.1500 support zone now, having rejected 1.1600 yesterday.
• Stocks US stocks held at lows and remain subdued after Tuesdays bloodbath.(S&P500 +0.34% 13pts 3946) FUTS trade at 3965. Starbucks +5.53%, TSLA +3.59%. NASDAQ best performer (+0.74%) Asian stock markets also weak and European FUTS also flat.

• USOil topped at $90.00 yesterday and trades at $88.30 now. 20-day moving average sits at $89.00.
• Gold – remains anchored under $1700 trades at key $1688 now.
• BTC – slumped to $19.5k but holds at $20k now. Ethereum PARIS Merge successful this morning.

Overnight & Today – US Philly Fed, US Retail Sales, Speech from ECB’s de Guindos.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.39%) The BOJ intervention gossip & weak data not aiding the YEN yet. Rallied from 142.50 lows yesterday to 143.70 now 145.00 remains key resistance. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising, RSI 57.50, H1 ATR 0.227, Daily ATR 1.632.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 16th September 2022.

Market Update – September 16 – Dollar & Yields firmer, Stocks Gold & Oil weaker.

• USDIndex – Remains bid and back to test 109.60. Data released yesterday was mixed (positive Retail Sales and Claims, mixed Trade data and Manufacturing from Empire State & Philly Fed) but solid enough not to dissuade the Fed. A 75 bp boost is a done deal on Wednesday, with the risk for a 100 bp hike now 24%. And the Fed is likely to increase rates over the rest of the year to hit a 4.04% upper band in December and peak at 4.4% early 2023. In January the 10-yr yield was 1.77%, closed yesterday at 3.459%, just shy of June’s 3.47% high.
• EUR – Trades at 0.9978 now and remains capped by Parity 1.0000 resistance.
• JPY – More intervention chatter, Suzuki: concerned about one-sided yen weakening. USDJPY back to 143.60, 145.00 remains vital resistance.
• GBP broke below key 1.1500 support zone, 1.1420 now, as Retail Sales disappoint adding to the cost of living crisis.
• Stocks US stocks moved lower and remain pressured after Tuesdays bloodbath.(S&P500 -1.13% -44.66pts 3901) FUTS trade below key 3900 at 3892. Adobe -17%, MFST -2.70%, NFLX +5.02%. NASDAQ worst performer (-1.43%). Asian stock markets also sank (Nikkei -1.11% & Shanghai Comp. -1.97%) – Chinese property sector remains weak but strong Retails Sales and key August indicators were better-than-expected. European FUTS lower, FTSE100 FUTS – a tad higher on weaker sterling.

• USOil plunged over 4% to $84.35 lows, from a test of $90.00 on Wednesday. Trades at $85.40 now.
• Gold – also plunged below key support areas at $1688 and $1680, to $1658 (April 2020 lows) now.
• BTC – slumped to $19.4k and trades at $19.7k now. Ethereum PARIS Merge successful yesterday but he coin lost -5% and trades at $1468 today.

Overnight & Today – EU Final CPI, UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations, Quadruple Witching, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde & Villeroy.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPUSD (-0.46%) Weak UK Retail Sales adds to Sterling’s woes. Sank under vital 1.1500 yesterday to 1.1418 now. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 27.50 & OS, H1 ATR 0.00158, Daily ATR 0.01188.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 19th September 2022.

Market Update – September 19 – Big central bank week; Risk of a super-sized hikes!

• USDIndex – Remains bid, holding above 109. The surprisingly hot August CPI report generated a sea-change in policy outlook, while housing starts and existing home sales will be tracked. The housing sector has been a major casualty of the FOMC’s tightening policies. Starts are seen rebounding slightly to a 1.450 mln clip after tumbling -9.6% to 1.446 mln in July. Existing home sales are projected dropping to a 4.685 mln rate following July’s decline to 4.810 mln. A 75 bp boost is a done deal on Wednesday.
• EUR – Trades at 0.9976. Recession risks are increasingly palpable in Europe.
• JPY – down 0.2% at 143.21 – verbal interventions effect in the yen has faded this week.Strong resistance at 145. Japan is on holiday today & Friday. BoJ is expected to maintain the accommodative stance & stick with massive stimulus .
• GBP just under the 1.14 mark. Markets are split on whether the BOE will raise rates by 50 or 75 bps on Thursday and to the government’s fiscal plans as Chancellor Kwarteng is set to unveil a “mini-budget” on September 23. The energy package aside, Kwarteng is expected to unveil cuts to National Insurance payments and the reversal of plans to increase corporation tax from 19% to 25%in April. PM Truss is also preparing a post-Brexit deregulation push and hopes that her measures will boost growth sufficiently to allow the financing of measures in the medium term.
• Stocks in red with ASX and Nikkei lost -0.3% and -1.1% respectively, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -1.3% and -0.5% at the moment. Reports that the Chinese city of Chengdu reopened after lifting a two-week lockdown and a liquidity injection from the PBOC may have helped to put a floor under mainland China bourses at least. The GER40 future is fractionally lower, US futures underperforming, led by a –0.8% correction in the USA100. UK markets will remain closed today for the late Queen’s funeral.
• USOil – at $83.83 next support at $80.
• Gold – slipped on Monday, at $1661 pressured by a strong USD.
• BTC – retests 3-month low at mid $18500 area.

Overnight & Today – EU Construction Output & Japanese CPI.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BTCUSD (-4.72%) Sank to 3-month low at 18400 area. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 21, H1 ATR 231.98, Daily ATR 1112.90.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 20th September 2022.

Market Update – September 20.

• USDIndex – steadied at 109 – 109.30, as Treasuries were weaker on the day and closed near their lows as the market awaits an all-but-done 75 bp rate boost. The 2-year US Treasury yield , which is extremely sensitive to policy expectations, rose as high as 3.970% overnight for the first time since November 2007. The 10-year yield reached a high of 3.518%, a level not seen since April 2011.
• EUR – back to parity (1.0030) after it dropped as low as $0.9864 on Sept. 6 for the first time in two decades.
• JPY – at 143.40, in a week following consolidation. The BoJ decides policy on Thursday, and is widely expected to keep its ultra-easy stimulus settings unchanged — including pinning the 10-year yield near zero — to support a fragile economic recovery.
• GBP – at 1.1445, finding some ground after the 37-year low. Consensus expectations predict a 50 bp move from the BoE, although a 75 bp move is likely to be discussed.
• Stocks: A late-day rally left the US100 up 0.76% at 11,535, while the US30 and US500 rose 0.64% and 0.69%, respectively, to 31,019 and 3899. Nikkei was up 0.45% at the close, the ASX managed a 1.29% gain, while CSI and Hang Seng are currently up 0.2% and 1.1% respectively. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.6% respectively.
• Apple rallied by 2.51% yesterday. The company announced yesterday that prices of apps and in-app purchases on its App Store will increase in several countries including Japan, Malaysia and all territories that use the euro currency, from next month. Also in a statement to Bloomberg, Apple has acknowledged the iPhone 14 Pro’s camera shaking issue and has revealed that it will release a software update to fix this. This update should be out by next week.
• USOil – at $85 area after dipping to $82. US crude oil stocks are estimated to have risen last week by around 2 million barrels in the week to Sept. 16, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. European gas prices meanwhile continue to decline with Dutch TTF at EUR 170 per megawatt hour – the lowest since July 25. European governments are intensifying efforts to ease the reliance on Russian imports and there are also efforts underway to reform the energy market as governments move to reduce energy consumption in preparation for the winter. European inventories are almost 86% full, but if Russia doesn’t resume gas deliveries via Nordstream 1 it will still be a struggle to avoid power cuts.

Overnight & Today – US Building Permits & housing Starts, Canadian Inflation and the highlight is the ECB Lagarde speech, BoC Deputy Beaudry speech and RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speech.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.42%) rallies to 164.35 (200-hour SMA). MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line turned positive and rising. RSI 69, H1 ATR 0.225, Daily ATR 1.557.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 21st September 2022.

Market Update – September 21 – Riksbank spooked markets ahead of Fed, BoE, SNB & Norges Bank.

• USDIndex – extended gains to 110.26, stocks and bonds were down while the 10-year yield surged over 10 bps to hit 3.60%, but slid to finish at 3.555%. It is the first close over 3.5% since April 2011. The curve steepened to -39 bps from -45 bp.
• ECB’s Lagarde expects to raise rates further over the “next several meetings,” in her speech on Monetary Policy in the Euro Area. That and the surprisingly bold 100 bp rate boost from Sweden’s Riksbank kicked off a very heavy week of central bank decisions and got trading off on the back foot. The markets are repricing for the possibility other central banks will be in more of a rush to tighten policy.
• Putin declares partial military mobilisation to bolster Ukraine war effort.
• EUR – plummets below 0.9900.
• JPY – topped 144.00, before drifting by 60 pips on the EU open as Yen strengthened. The BoJ left its bond buying schedule unchanged and signalled ongoing focus on trying to cap yields which may have helped to soothen nerves.
• GBP – dipped to 1.1338, at 37-year lows.
• Stocks: US500 and the US30 were down just over -1%, with the US100 off -0.95%. European rates closed up over 10 bps, and bourses dropped over -1%. JPN225 and ASX closed with losses of -1.6% and -1.4% respectively yesterday, and Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently down -1.2% and -0.3%. US and European equity futures are also in the red.
• USOil – ticked up to $85.50.

Overnight – BoJ maintains bond buying program, with the focus on trying to keep a lid on yields, ahead of the policy decision later in the week. The BoJ plans to buy 150 billion yen of debt in the 5-10 year and 100 billion yen of securities with maturities of 10-25 years. That is on top of the offer of unlimited purchases of 10-year bonds at 0.25%. The 10-year rate climbed to the 0.25% upper limit of the BoJ’s tolerated range last week for the first time in three months, as officials tried to talk up the Yen.

Today – The FOMC began its 2-day meeting.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURJPY (-0.80%) dipped to 142.00. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line turned negative and falling. RSI 69, H1 ATR 0.271, Daily ATR 1.56.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 22nd September 2022.

Market Update – September 22.

• USDIndex – extended gains to 111.51, as the FOMC boosted rates by 75 bps, but it was a much more hawkish result than that. The SEP revisions were the focus and they did not disappoint, with the dots coming in much higher than expected, steepening the near-term trajectory and concluding with a higher than previously forecast terminal rate. Chair Powell also stated the policy path the Fed actually takes will be enough to get the job done.
• Yields: 2-year finally climbed through 4% to close at 4.03%, the first time with that handle since October 2007. The 10-year was 5 bps richer at 3.510% after surging to 3.624% just after the Fed’s release.
• EUR – lingering at 0.9820.
• JPY – lifted to 145.44, as Kuroda’s warning on the Yen may help to limit the move higher as it leaves markets speculating about direct intervention in forex markets, although most expect Japan to try and enlist support from the US and shy away from going it alone.
• GBP – dipped to 1.1220.
• Stocks in the red with losses of -1.79% on the US100, and -1.7% on the US30 and US500. GER40 and UK100 futures meanwhile are down -1.6% and -0.8% respectively.
• USOil – at $83.00, as supply concerns are counterbalanced by speculation that aggressive central bank action will hit the recovery.

Overnight – BoJ will continue with the easy policy settings until the 2% inflation goal is met, adding that the bank won’t hesitate to ease policy settings further if needed. FOMC boosted the rate band 75 bps as expected, from 3.0% to 3.50%. This makes a total of 300 bps in rate increases to the highest since 2008. And more hikes are on the way as the policy statement reiterated that the Committee “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.” Additionally, the dot plot showed a median funds rate at 4.4% for the end of 2022, or about 125 bps of hikes from here, keeping another 75 bp increase on the table. The median rate is at 4.6% for the end of 2023. The vote was unanimous. This is a hawkish 75 bp hike, and it’s a higher for longer stance through 2023.

Today – The SNB delivers 75 bp hike as expected. Hence focus turns to BOE announcement and US jobless claims.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CHFJPY (+1.03%) MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line turned positive and rising. RSI 78, H1 ATR 0.471, Daily ATR 1.599.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 23rd September 2022.

Market Update – September 23.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

• USDIndex – holds above 111.
• Yields: 10-year surged 18 bps to hit 3.71% but finished at 3.69%. 2-year was 9 bps higher at 4.15% before easing off. It was an 11th straight session of losses, the longest on record (data going back to 1976), according to Bloomberg. The 10-year has sagged for 13 consecutive days. The curve inverted to -54 bps early on before rising to -42 bps late in the day.
• EUR – broke below 0.9800.
• JPY – remained supported after officials stepped in and intervened on forex markets yesterday. USDJPY is at 142.20.
• GBP – remains in the doldrums with Cable at 1.1200.
• Stocks were mired in the red, at 2 year lows, with weakness in consumer discretionary and financials. Some bargain hunting lifted the indexes off of their lows and saw the US30 edge fractionally higher temporarily, but dropped at the close to finish down -0.35%. The US100 lost -1.37%, and the US500 was off -0.85%.
• USOil – hovering at 80-82 area.

Overnight –Globally hot inflation rates have resulted in historically tough action from nearly every central bank around the world this week and over the month. Over the past 24 hours there has been a total of 250 bps in rate increases. Many emerging market central banks have been in action too, forced to keep pace with the Fed and to defend their currencies. South Africa lifted rates 75 bps, with Indonesia and the Philippines hiking 50 bps. The BoJ remained the odd man out, though it intervened in the currency market to support JPY. While the FOMC’s 75 bp hike was expected, the upward revisions in the dots to a 4.6% estimate for the terminal rate, and Chair Powell’s hawkish stance, caused much of the repricing in the markets. Additionally, Powell’s warning that there will be further pain in the housing market and that the risks for recession were on the rise exacerbated investor angst. That and the rise in yields knocked mega-tech sharply lower. Nevertheless, many doubt the FOMC will carry through with its projected policy path, while some found buying opportunities amid the downdraft in stocks.

Today – Preliminary PMIs from UK, Germany, EU, and US alongside Canadian Retail Sales and Fed’s Chair Powell.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPUSD (-0.63%) MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal lines extend well below 0, RSI 30.62, H1 ATR 0.00175, Daily ATR 0.01282.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 26th September 2022.

Market Update – September 26 – Sterling Slumps.

• USDIndex – surged to 114.40 before settling at 113.64. 10-year yields jumped 5.5 bp in Australia and are currently 7.6 bp higher in the US. 2-year Treasury yields broke above 4.3% to a new 15-year high.
• EUR – The Eurozone and the wider EU are also facing the challenge of a new right-wing government in Italy, with Draghi’s likely successor not only the first woman, but one with far-right convictions that could bring her in conflict with Brussels and Frankfurt. EURUSD at 0.9635.
• JPY Japan’s Finance Minister threatened further intervention today, but the Yen was again under pressure and fell about 0.6% to the weaker side of 143.86.
• GBP dropped to an all-time low against the USD (at 1.033) as Friday’s mini-budget intensified concern about the fiscal situation. Speculation of an emergency response from the Bank of England, as confidence evaporated in Britain’s plan to borrow its way out of trouble, spooked investors piling into US Dollars. Currently settled at 1.0615.

• Stocks: Eurozone stock futures are selling off in tandem with US futures, while the UK100 future has found a footing as the slump in Sterling lends a helping hand. Across Asia the Nikkei closed -2.6% lower, the ASX declined -1.6% and Hang Seng and CSI 300 have lost -0.02% and -0.52% respectively so far.
• USOil plunged to $77.58 as recession concerns mount. Attention turns to OPEC+, on Oct. 5, after agreement to cut output modestly at their last meeting.
• Gold – drifted to $1636, with next floor at $1560.
• BTC – hovering around 2-month low at $18k area.

Overnight & Today – China steps up fight to support the Yuan. The PBOC announced today that it will impose a 20% risk reserve requirement on banks’ foreign-exchange forward sales to clients. The currency is heading for the lower end of the allowed trading band against the Dollar, despite stronger than expected fixings since August. Officials also reduced the banks’ foreign-currency reserve requirements earlier this month to boost the Yuan, but so far, the measures haven’t really halted the slide in the currency and today’s move is also not expected to do much more than slow the slide.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURGBP (+2.19%). Topped at nearly 2-year highs at 0.9250, before correcting back to 0.9045. Intraday MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line hold positive, RSI declines to 61, H1 ATR 0.0065, Daily ATR 0.0094.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27th September 2022.

Market Update – September 27.

• USDIndex – at 113.40 after hitting another new 20+ year high at 114.41, as treasuries continue to rally. 10-year yield surged over 20 bps to test 3.898%, the highest since early 2010. The 2-year was over 13 bps cheaper to 4.340%, a new 15-year peak. The 30-year bond was up only 10 bps to 3.715%, an 8-year high. The curve held in the -44 bp area.
• EUR – lifted slightly amidst a general correction in the Dollar, at 0.9652.
• JPY traded at 144.20. Resistance set at 146.00.
• GBP dropped to an all-time low of 1.035 overnight, but bounced to 1.0800 currently. BoE’s Bailey said the Bank will not hesitate to change rates as much as needed while noting he is monitoring the financial markets. That disappointed as the markets hoped to hear something firmer and more definitive on the crash in Cable. The UK100 bounced and managed a fractional gain at the end of the day.

• Stocks: Stock markets started to stabilize overnight and Nikkei and ASX managed gains of 0.5% and -0.4% respectively. Wall Street gave up early gains and closed with losses of over -1.0% on the US30 and US500, with the latter at 3655, piercing the 3666 nadir from June 16, and is the weakest since December 14, 2020. The US100 slid -0.60%.
• USOil closed yesterday below $76 (9-month low) on indications that OPEC+ may enact output cuts to avoid a further collapse in prices.
• Gold – drifted to $1621 outside daily BB.
• BTC – higher at $20,162.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+1.27%). Retesting 50-hour SMA at 0.5715, Intraday fast MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line hold negative but close to 0, RSI rise to 57, H1 ATR 0.00175, Daily ATR 0.00878.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 28th September 2022.

Market Update – September 28 – Renewed Selling.

• USDIndex – breaks range and tops at 114.63. Economic data on confidence, durables, home sales, and the Richmond Fed index were stronger than expected, while home prices declined and broke a long string of gains.
• Yields: A tweet from DoubleLine Capital’s Gundlach that he was buying Treasuries provided some support along with dip-buying and safe haven demand. The 10-year Treasury yield ended over 5 bps higher, testing 3.99% after having dropped over 10 bps to a low of 3.797%.
• GBP in a renewed selling, UK bonds sold off sharply, yields on US bonds higher and US stocks to the lowest level since 2020. 10-year gilt on Tuesday rose 26% to hit a 14-year high of 4.5% after the Bank of England’s chief economist Huw Pill said the loosening of fiscal policy announced last week would “require a significant monetary response”.
• Kwarteng met the heads of companies including Aviva, Legal & General, Royal London, BlackRock, Schroders and Fidelity, to reassure them that his economic strategy would work after days of turmoil in financial markets. Later he spoke to Conservative MPs to calm fears that the government had lost control of the economic situation.
• IMF criticize Britain’s new economic strategy, saying the proposals are likely to increase inequality. Moody’s warned that unfunded tax cuts were credit negative.

• EUR – fresh low at 0.9540.
• JPY traded at 144.70.
• Stocks: closed mixed with the US100 managing a 0.25% gain, while the US30 declined -0.42%, with the US500 sliding -0.2% to 3647.
• USOil steady at $77. The energy crisis in Europe intensified as European authorities investigated what Germany, Denmark and Sweden said were attacks which had caused major leaks into the Baltic Sea from two Russian gas pipelines.
• Gold – drifted to $1619.97.
• BTC – slide back to $18K area, as stocks fell deeper into a bear market. Ether was also down by less than 1%. – “crypto winter”?

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.77%) extends outside daily BB. Intraday fast MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line are negative, RSI at 23, H1 ATR 0.218, Daily ATR 1.166.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 29th September 2022.

Market Update – September 29 – Sterling & Stocks drift as BoE boost fades.

• USDIndex – tumbled at 112.43 after the BoE’s actions ( worst session in 2.5 years). Today it found some ground edging towards 113.35, buoyed by renewed pressure on the pound.
• Yields: UBoE’s announcement that it will buy up to GBP 5 bln a day for 13 days in a bid to stabilise markets bruised by the government’s mini-budget may have helped Gilts and wider bond markets to recover somewhat yesterday, but while Australia and New Zealand bonds rallied in catch up trade, yields are already rising again in Europe and the US. Record surge in Gilts where the 30-year rate plunged an historic 105 bps to 3.913%, unwinding the better than 130 bp selloff to a 5.135% high. The 10-year Gilt crashed 50 bps, the most since 1992, to 3.999%.

While intervention supported Gilts, Treasuries rallied on haven demand amid global investor jitters, bargain hunting, a solid 7-year auction, and a month-end bid.

• GBP remains volatile as BoE presses panic button. Sterling rallied on the BoE’s initial announcement of bond purchases, but Cable has since settled at 1.08 area as the rapid switch from scheduled asset sales to “temporary” bond purchases has not really helped to instill confidence in the currency.
• EUR – returned to 0.9665.
• JPY traded at 144.70.
• Stocks: The 1.96% bounce to 3718 in the US500 snapped a six-day string of losses, the worst since February 2020, as the index climbed off of Tuesday’s 3647, a new 2022 low. Strength was broadbased with energy climbing over 4%. The US100 jumped 2.05% to 11,051, and the US30 rose 1.88% to 29,683.
• USOil up to $81. Goldman Sachs cut its 2023 oil price forecast, citing expectations of weaker demand and a stronger USD. China’s travel during the upcoming week-long national holiday is set to hit the lowest level in years as Beijing’s persistent zero-COVID rules prompt people to stay at home and economic woes dampen spending. Citi economists have lowered their China GDP forecast from 5% year-on-year growth to 4.6% for the fourth quarter of 2022.
• Gold – after some buying retreats to $1647.
• BTC – at 19375.
• Today: German Inflation, ECB’s Panetta, de Guindos, Elderson and Lane speech, US GDP and Jobless claims.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-1.05%) back to 0.5655. Intraday fast MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line are turnign to 0, RSI at 2342, H1 ATR 0.00173, Daily ATR 0.00953.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 30th September 2022.

Market Update – September 30 – Quarter End.

• USDIndex – has dropped back to 112.00, as bonds and stocks remained very jittery into quarter end, month end and week end. The US Q2 chain price indexes accelerated to 9.0% for the headline, and 4.7% for the core. Credibility issues are keeping also buyers sidelined as the central banks are seen having waited too long to address rising price pressures, with worries now that they are overdoing rate hikes and will push the world into recession.
• Yields: The German 10-year rate is down -3.2 bp in early trade, the US rate -4.1 bp.
• UK PM Liz Truss will stick to her plan to reignite economic growth, breaking her silence after nearly a week of financial market chaos.
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz – set out $196 billion “defensive shield”, including a gas price brake and a cut in sales tax for the fuel, to protect companies and households from the impact of soaring energy prices. That came after the 10.9% German Inflation figure for September.
• 
• Stocks were headed for their worst month! Nikkei still closed with a loss of -1.8%, the ASX was down -1.2% by end of trade while CSI 300 and Hang Seng are down -0.3% and up 0.1% respectively. However, markets seem to be finding a footing and European and US futures are mostly managing slight gains.
• Japan’s factories ramped up output in August and China’s factory activity returned to growth this month, data showed.
• GBP – has lifted above 1.10
• EUR – is at 0.98.
• JPY – traded at 144.57.
• USOil – steady at $81.
• Gold – rebounded to $1670.
• BTC – steady at 19410
• VIX index has been on the rise and hit 33.46 earlier, just shy of the 34.75 May high, though has yet to really test the 40 area last seen in late 2020.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USA100 back to 11333. Intraday fast MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line are turning higher but still in negative area, RSI at 54.76, H1 ATR 58.36, Daily ATR 354.98.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 4th October 2022.

Market Update – October 4 – Stocks Bounce, Yields Fall, RBA Springs a Surprise.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

• USDIndex – Descends into 111.50, support area, and under 9-day EMA for first time since September 19. Yields slipped significantly (US 10yr @3.65%) following reverse from UK Chancellor tax cut plan lifting UK GILTS and wider sentiment. ISM Manu. data hit a 2.5 year low but at 50.9 remains in expansion mode. Oil & Oil Stocks rallied on OPEC production cut rumours and TSLA dropped -8.6% on delivery misses and with no immediate solution. RBA surprised with a 25bp hike vs. an expected 50 bp interest rate hike. AUD & JPY underperform overnight.
• EUR – Trades at 0.9840 now testing Friday high but capped by a 9-day high at 0.9900.
• JPY – Remains weighed. 145.00 was breached but only for an hour yesterday, despite hawkish comments from Japanese officials – trades at 144.80 now.
• GBP – UK government confirmed it will scrap plans to abolish 45% top tax rate in humiliating U-turn. Sterling continued to rally, Cable and GBPJPY breached 20-Day MA. Cable now trades at key resistance 1.1350.
• Stocks – US stocks, ripe for a bounce at the beginning of the Quarter, leapt over 2%. US500 +92.81 (+2.59%) 3678 Energy stocks led with XOM & CVX (+5%) and APPL & MSFT, (+3%),which led tech lower on Friday, led the rally on Monday. TSLA sank -8.6% pulling TWTR -3.10% & RIVAN -3% lower. US500.F 3731 now.
• 
• USOil rallied over 6% to $84.35 highs after weekend reports of OPEC+ cutting production “up to 1.5 million barrels per day”. Trades at $84.00 now.
• Gold – spiked higher from $1665 over the key $1700 and trades at $1703 now.
• BTC – rallied from sub $19.0k yesterday to $19.7k now.

Today – US Factory Orders and Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Logan, Daly, Mester & Jefferson, ECB’s Lagarde.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.56%) Rallied from Thursday’s collapse to 140.00 to test 143.00 zone today. MAs now aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 67.44 & rising, H1 ATR 0.243, Daily ATR 1.706.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 5th October 2022.

Market Update – October 5 – Stocks Leap 3%, USD & Yields Sink.

• USDIndex – Sank and descended into 110.00 as USD and Yields slipped (US 10yr @3.61%). JOLTS missed significantly (10.05m vs 11.24 last time), adding to hopes Fed may be on the cusp of moderating and possibly even ending rate hikes in coming months (the Fed Pivot). Stocks charged higher (NASDAQ+3.34%). The 5.7% start to Q4 2022 after two days is the best start to a new quarter since Q2 1938 (+8.7%). RBNZ confirmed expectations with a 50bp interest rate hike. NZD rallied. MUSK said TWTR (+22.4%) deal was back on at original $54.20 per share.
• EUR – A weak USD saw EUR storm through 0.9900 and rally to Parity at 1.0000. Trades at 0.9967 now.
• JPY – Reversed from 145.00 to as low as 143.60 trades at 144.00 now.
• GBP – Sterling continued to rally, despite more public disagreements within Government. Cable stalled short of 1.1500 at 1.1490. Cable now trades at 1.1460.
• Stocks – US stocks, leapt again, over 3%. US500 +112.50 (+3.06%) 3790. All sectors rallied significantly. Asian markets ahead, European futures flat ahead of open.

• USOil rallied again to $86.60 (9% in 2-days) ahead of OPEC+ meetings today with production cuts now “up to 2.0 million barrels per day”.
• Gold – spiked higher again holding the key $1700 and trades at $1725 now.
• BTC – rallied over the key $20k yesterday to $20.2k now.

Today – EZ, UK & US Final PMIs, US ISM Services, ADP, OPEC, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic & UK PM Truss.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.81%) Rallied from Monday’s low at 0.5500 to 0.5696 yesterday, remains resistance today. MAs now aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 56.44 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00216, Daily ATR 0.84006.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 6th October 2022.

Market Update – October 6 – USD & Stocks Flat, Oil Rallies.

• USDIndex – Rallied from a test of 110.00 peaking at 111.50 following weak Services PMI data in UK & Europe, and a beat for US data; ADP (208k vs 200k) and ISM Services PMI (56.7 vs 56). Closed lower and trades under 111.00 now at 110.83. Fed’s Mary Daly says the Fed is resolute in raising rates to curb inflation and that market anticipation of interest-rate cuts next year is misplaced. Stocks closed flat, yields dipped again and Oil rallied following OPEC+ announcement. AUD Trade slipped and German Factory Orders tanked (-2.4% vs. -0.8%). Asian & European stocks are mixed following the stall on Wall St.
• EUR – A brief test of Parity at 1.0000, reversed all the way to 0.9833 before USD recovered and the pair trades at 0.9915 now.
• JPY – Rallied from lows yesterday at 143.60 and trades at 144.50 now.
• GBP Sterling remains volatile with the new PM under pressure. 260+ pip range yesterday, from 1.1495 to 1.1226. Cable trades at 1.1325 now.
• Stocks – US stocks, were heavy all day but closed flat (-0.2%), US500 -7.65 at 3783. TWTR -1.35%, TSLA -3.46% XOM +4.04%.

• USOil rallied again to $88.40 after OPEC+ agreed 2.0 million barrels per day production cuts, provoking major rebuke from the US.
• Gold – declined from initial test of $1725 yesterday before testing $1700 support and now back to $1725 again.
• BTC – dipped below the key $20k yesterday ,but now back to $20.2k.

Today – EZ/UK Construction PMI, EZ Retail Sales, ECB Minutes, Weekly Claims & Speeches from Fed’s Waller, Evans, Cook & Mester and BOC’s Macklem.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.84%) Rallied from yesterday’s low at 0.5660 to 0.5800 resistance today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 61.20 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00181, Daily ATR 0.01096.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 7th October 2022.

Market Update – October 7 – NFP Day – USD Remains on the Front Foot.

• USDIndex – Rallied again yesterday and trades over 112.00 (up 1.85% in 2-days) currently. The chorus of Fedspeak (Cook, Evans, Kashkari, Waller & Mester) all pushed the Hawkish tone. BOC’s Macklem also very Hawkish too. Weekly Claims rose to 219k from 190K but remain historically low. Fed Funds Futures now have an 85.5% chance of 75bp rate hike at Nov. 2 FOMC meeting. Stocks closed -1%, Yields rallied (10-yr 3.83% from 3.55% earlier in the week). Oil rallied again to $89.00, Gold slipped but holds $1700 and BTC is under $20K again. Japan published more mixed data, (Earnings and Leading Indicators up, Household Spending down). German Import Prices rose significantly, Retail Sales & Ind. Production missed. Asian & European stocks are lower following a weak Wall St. Biden says Putin’s nuclear threat biggest risk since Cuban Missile Crisis and that the US is reviewing ‘response options’ on Saudi relations after OPEC+.
• EUR – A brief break of 0.9900, reversed all the way to 0.9786 now. ECB remains pressured to take more decisive action as Energy crisis swirls and fractures with EU persist, despite the “Prague” accord, with Putin increasingly cornered.
• JPY – Rallied from lows yesterday at 144.50 to once again test the key 145.00 now. Japan’s foreign reserves fell by a record $54 billion in September, as the BOJ tried to defend the Yen.
• GBP Sterling sank another 240+ pips yesterday and is under pressure along with new PM Truss. From over 1.1350 to 1.1110 lows yesterday, Cable trades at 1.1340 now.
• Stocks – US stocks, were heavy all day and close down (-1.01%), US500 -38.00 at 3744. TWTR -3.72%, TSLA -1.11% (Musk lawsuit dropped & deal to close 28/10, also said Pepsi will get first semi trucks in December). LEVI -3.92% (ahead of weak Earnings; -6.34% after hours). US FUTS at 3740.

• USOil rallied again to $89.00 after OPEC+ agreed 2.0 million barrels per day production cuts this week, provoking major rebuke from the US.
• Gold – declined from another test of $1725 yesterday before again moving back to $1710.
• BTC – dipped below the key $20k again today having tested $20.2k yesterday. Trades at 19.8k now.

Today – US & Canadian Jobs reports, BOE’s Ramsden, Fed’s Williams, Kashkari, & Bostic.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.25%) Continued to decline from 6-day high at 165.500 on Wednesday to test 161.00 yesterday and trades at 161.35 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling RSI 35.28 & falling, H1 ATR 0.359, Daily ATR 3.498.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.