GREY1's APPROACH TO TRADING US STOCKS

Grey1 said:
A QUIZ FOR ALL SEASON lol


IF AN INSTITUTION IS INTERESTED TO BUY 200 000 shares of APPL tomorrow HOW DOES HE DO IT ?




you have no idea how important is to know about block trading and how it affects you as small trader ?I welcome all traders and their comments.

grey1
Heres my input:
He would go to a MM and they would agree a price (perhaps linked to VWAP :) ) The MM would perhaps agree to buy say 50k for his own account and then the institution would let the MM 'work' the rest of the order as the MM saw fit. I think the important thing is at least one block print would be seen on time and sales (50k).
 
samtron said:
Heres my input:
He would go to a MM and they would agree a price (perhaps linked to VWAP :) ) The MM would perhaps agree to buy say 50k for his own account and then the institution would let the MM 'work' the rest of the order as the MM saw fit. I think the important thing is at least one block print would be seen on time and sales (50k).
Samtron ,

I cannot even buy 5 block into a market with out having an impact ... so how would he buy 50 K ?

Grey1
 
Grey1 said:
IF AN INSTITUTION IS INTERESTED TO BUY 200 000 shares of APPL tomorrow HOW DOES HE DO IT ?

If by "tomorrow" you literally mean that said institution must acquire all 200k shares in the one day, this is a different task from acquiring them over the course of, say, a week or a month which might elicit different tactics. Either way, it is safe to assume that:
A) any player wanting to acquire a holding in APPL of this size is likely to hold them for a while (i.e. they're not day traders) and that:
B) they expect the price to rise from its current level and that:
C) they don't want to pay more than they have to in order to accumulate their holding.
To achieve this, tactic No. 1 would be to offer a decent wedge of shares of their existing holding - say 10,000 - 20,000 through the course of the morning to test the market waters. If they get their arm bitten off at the ankle in a frenzy of buying, they know they're gonna have their work cut out for the rest of the day. If, on the other hand, there is little buying interest and the increased supply even manages to deflate the price a little, then they know their task is likely to be that much easier - probably. The rest of the day is then spent teasing out current holders of the stock by making them think that the current price is over bought or over valued or exhausted or whatever, so that these people become sellers and our nameless, faceless institution can pick up the crumbs through the course of the day - a 1,000 shares here, 2,000 there etc. etc.
Tactic No. 2 would be to wait until the price hits obvious resistance that any newbie trader would spot on his/her first day of trading school and to then flood the the market with a large supply of their existing holding. All screens turn blood red, panic sets in and there isn't a buyer to be seen anywhere until, suddenly, low and behold, the mysterious institution that started all this panic selling appears to be buying . . .

These are a few basic ideas, but a foundation of sorts for others to build upon with more sophisticated and insightful answers, I hope!
Tim.
 
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Jolly good question. I don't trade stocks so forgive any howling errors that I am sure to make. I read a couple of books on SOES bandits and the like several years ago (wow what fun they had!) but that's it as far as my stock knowledge goes. But some principles, e.g tape reading, supply/demand dynamic, major groups active in the market, psychology etc. ought to be the same as futures. Apologies to Tim for repeating quite a lot of what you've said already too.

Firstly, I imagine there would be a difference in approach depending on the type of institution buying. If it is say a pension fund then they will have to go through a market maker and agree a price (range?) with him. The market maker is likely to give him as poor an average price as he can get away with in order to further his own profit. Well they used to anyway. Or perhaps they ring that nice man at Merrill who will do the same. However if it is Merrill buying for his company account then he will manage the position himself and try and get the best price he can. But I assume the question refers to the trader's general method of filling the order, whoever it may have come from. Also strategy probably depends slightly on the exchange used (e.g NYSE involves specialists, Nasdaq is all-electronic ... I think). Stocks - far too complicated and numerous for me. :)

Secondly, unless he really doesn't care much about his fill price - unlikely with a $11m position - his tactics would depend slightly on where the stock was in a price cycle? If the stock is in a strong uptrend making new highs he might do one thing, whereas if it is basing well below a cycle high then he may do another. Different tactics for different context. The general idea is that he has to suss out the market conditions, with an eye on the last few days' action, to see how much supply and demand there is on the sidelines at certain levels. He can and will do this with his own cash if needs be, and fairly imperviously because he has deep pockets and an acutely tuned sense of crowd psychology. If he didn't Merrill wouldn't continue to hire him (though he might be a brilliant quant instead). He is also likely to have several other orders to fill and thus a large advantage that a retail trader does not enjoy.

The below is all guesswork and very general.

Anyway ... obviously he can't step in and buy 200k in one block as he would get a terrible price. I believe traders will be sorely abused by whoever gave them the order for 200k if their average fill price is, say, well above the day's VWAP as samtron mentioned.

So he has to start a campaign to accumulate in small blocks while masking his intention as a strong buyer.

For if it becomes obvious to other traders that he is a large genuine buyer then they will naturally try and front run him or simply buy knowing his big block must increase the price as he works the order.

The last thing he wants is his buying (or even just his intent to buy, if he betrays this) to drive price up and create additional demand, thus making his subsequent buys more and more expensive.

So I guess he would need to encourage weak longs to dump their holdings and new weak shorts to be opened in order to drive the price down and create temporary supply for him to buy from. He can do this by manipulating crowd psychology in a number of ways.

One way: Perhaps he starts this of by bursts of aggressive selling at a popular technical level, e.g a round number or established support. Selling to beget selling, kind of a loss leader. This will cost him but should reward him later if he has judged the conditions correctly. Then perhaps having triggered a few of the naivest stops he temporarily goes on the offer as a precaution and keeps refreshing every time someone takes 200 or so. This makes him look like a real and continued seller and discourages the slighly more sophisticated from bargain hunting following the break, while encouraging further sellers who misread his intentions.

So the price continues to fall as increasing numbers of naive weak hands are attracted to the short side by the deliberately tempting technical break and shiny price action. He stops offering as momentum picks up - after all he is ultimately trying to buy and cheaply. The price is indeed getting cheaper. So (or even while offering) he stealthily goes on the bid as well, perhaps thru another ECN, picking up a little at a time to fill the order in say blocks of 500. He has successfully dislodged some supply and hoovers it up quietly "una fagiola" at a time.

Eventually the supply will probably dry up and demand will come back in. If he has managed to build most or all of his postion (unlikely at this stage) he may actually put a large bid in below the market, now making him look like a buyer (which he was all along but only now does he want this to look obvious, because he now has a large long postion and does not want to create more supply which would go against his long) thus causing the fresh demand of others to take the price back up.

Essentially he keeps buying in small blocks as supply becomes available on pullbacks (that he may help create by initially, say, making it look like he is a big seller) then when the buyers come back in he eventually resells some of his position to the usual latecomers who have been waiting for their stoch crossover or whatever. So he is selling say 500 for every 1000 he buys all day surfing around the tops and bottoms of the pullbacks and impulses and slowly filling his order at a number of price levels, trading both ways while he does so. And because he has the size and skill to test supply and demand (go fishing) at key levels he may be able to coax the crowd into doing some of the hard work for him. Though with a stock like AAPL there are likely to be other big traders with different agendas, who may make his job harder. Even Merril can't manipulate a train in full steam.

Or perhaps I'm overcomplicating everything as usual and he simply looks to buy as much as he can in small blocks at favourable prices, e.g every time the stock trades at a certain percentage deviation from a mean, or something similarly mathematical. Techniques probably vary from house to house in fact?

I hope mr marcus responds to this question as he will no doubt have an interesting take on it and correct my manifold misconceptions. :)

I look forward to the answer Grey1, I find this stuff fascinating. :)
 
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All the responses to 200000 AAPL have addressed what the MMs do. The question was, what does the institution do?

It splits the order into 10 lots or so. Gets the guys working against their own best interests and in theirs only.
 
frugi said:
Jolly good question. I don't trade stocks so forgive any howling errors that I am sure to make. I read a couple of books on SOES bandits and the like several years ago (wow what fun they had!) but that's it as far as my stock knowledge goes. But some principles, e.g tape reading, supply/demand dynamic, major groups active in the market, psychology etc. ought to be the same as futures. Apologies to Tim for repeating quite a lot of what you've said already too.

Firstly, I imagine there would be a difference in approach depending on the type of institution buying. If it is say a pension fund then they will have to go through a market maker and agree a price (range?) with him. The market maker is likely to give him as poor an average price as he can get away with in order to further his own profit. Or perhaps they ring that nice man at Merrill who will do the same. However if it is Merrill buying for his company account then he will manage the position himself and try and get the best price he can. But I assume the question refers to the trader's general method of filling the order, whoever it may have come from. Also strategy probably depends on the exchange (e.g NYSE involves specialists, Nasdaq is all-electronic ... I think). Stocks - far too complicated and numerous for me. :)

Secondly, unless he really doesn't care much about his fill price, his tactics would depend slightly on where the stock was in a price cycle? If the stock is in a strong uptrend making new highs he might do one thing, whereas if it is basing well below a cycle high then he may do another. Different tactics for different context. The general idea is that he has to suss out the market conditions, with an eye on the last few days' action, to see how much supply and demand there is on the sidelines at certain levels. He can and will do this with his own cash if needs be, and fairly imperviously because he has deep pockets and an acutely tuned sense of crowd psychology. If he didn't Merrill wouldn't continue to hire him. He will also likely have several other orders to fill and thus a large advantage that a retail trader does not enjoy.

The below is all guesswork and very general.

Anyway ... obviously he can't step in and buy 200k in one block as he would get a terrible price. I believe traders will be sorely abused by whoever gave them the order for 200k if their average fill price is, say, well above the day's VWAP as samtron mentioned.

So he has to start a campaign to accumulate in small blocks while masking his intention as a strong buyer.

For if it becomes obvious to other traders that he is a large genuine buyer then they will naturally try and front run him or simply buy knowing his big block must increase the price as he works the order.

The last thing he wants is his buying (or even just his intent to buy, if he betrays this) to drive price up and create additional demand, thus making his subsequent buys more and more expensive.

So I guess he would need to encourage weak longs to dump their holdings and new weak shorts to be opened in order to drive the price down and create temporary supply for him to buy from. He can do this by manipulating crowd psychology in a number of ways.

One way: Perhaps he starts this of by bursts of aggressive selling at a popular technical level, e.g a round number or established support. Selling to beget selling, kind of a loss leader. This will cost him but should reward him later if he has judged the conditions correctly. Then perhaps having loosed a few of the naivest stops he temporarily goes on the offer as a precaution and keeps refreshing every time someone takes 200 or so. This makes him look like a real and continued seller and discourages the slighly more sophisticated from bargain hunting following the break while encouraging further sellers who misread his intentions as he'd hoped.

So the price continues to fall as increasing numbers of naive weak hands are attracted to the short side by the deliberately tempting technical break and shiny price action. He stops offering as momentum picks up - after all he is ultimately trying to buy and cheaply. The price is indeed getting cheaper. So (or even while offering) he stealthily goes on the bid as well, perhaps thru another ECN, picking up a little at a time to fill the order in say blocks of 500. He has successfully dislodged some supply and hoovers it up quietly "una fagiola" at a time.

Eventually the supply will probably dry up and demand will come back in. If he has managed to build most or all of his postion he may actually put a large bid in below the market, now making him look like a buyer - which he was all along but only now does he want this to look obvious, because he now has a large long postion and does not want to create more supply which would go against his long - thus causing the fresh demand of others to take the price back up.

Essentially he keeps buying in small blocks as supply becomes available on pullbacks (that he may help create by initially, say, making it look like he is a big seller) then when the buyers come back in he eventually resells some of his position to the usual latecomers who have been waiting for their stoch crossover or whatever. So he is selling say 500 for every 1000 he buys all day surfing around the tops and bottoms of the pullbacks and impulses and slowly filling his order at a number of price levels, trading both ways while he does so. And because he has the size to test supply and demand (go fishing) at key levels he may be able to coax the crowd into doing some of the hard work for him.

Or perhaps I'm overcomplicating everything as usual and he simply looks to buy as much as he can in small blocks at favourable prices, e.g every time the stock trades at a certain percentage deviation from a mean, or something similarly mathematical. Techniques probably vary from house to house in fact?

I hope mr marcus responds to this question as he will no doubt have an interesting take on it and correct my manifold misconceptions. :)

I look forward to the answer Grey1, I find this stuff fascinating. :)


Well, No need for me to explain as the boss frugi said it all . SO,, that saved me loads of time

just few points

1) All business reference point now a days is VWAP. ( BUY X BLOCKS @ 10 C below VWAP)
2) NYSE market is much easier to trade Blocks as MM are much more in control..
3) 200 Block I mentioned is not feasible with out leaving a footprint of the MMs intention while other MMs watching hence the usual trades are 20 to 50 blocks
4) Slicing orders to small portions is done by speciallist buy or sell programs ( EXECUTION MANAGEMENT SYSTEM ) in a way to anonymously blend into over all flow with out impacting the market.. The third party buy or sell programs are available for purchase and all use VWAP as bench mark some old buy /sell programs are are not as intelligent and L2 players can see the footprint and hence trade along with them saying that the new algorithms are so damn efficient that there is near zero chance of tracking their intention which makes L2 as useless as it can get LOL

SO why is it important to know about block trading ?

Well , there is a concept in TA called RELATIVE STRENGTH .. ( NOT RSI ... RSI is the strength of the instrument against itself , in another word how strong or OB /OS is the instrument compare to x bar back ) The relative strength measures the strength of the instrument in our case stock to the market. so if i say stock x has high relative strength it means it is stronger than market, if market falls a lot then stock falls a lot less. ( EXAMPLE SNDK YESTERDAY DIDNOT FALL AS MUCH WHEN DOW CORRECTED NEARLY 25 POINT while JOYG COLLAPSED AT THE SAME TIME )

Now, if a stock has a HIGH RELATIVE STRENGTH then buy and programs have difficulty to trade the stock . SO they leave the stock alone until next day where the stock's strength are weakened perhaps due to some downgrade or bad news. ( they bully the stock to submission as much as they can but if they fail they move on )

There fore if you are trading a stock which shows high relative strength be very worried because if buy/ sell programs don't give up then the stock will collapse sharply under your nose and your losses be huge . so look the HISTORY OF TREND. HAS STOCK GIVEN UP IN THE PAST ?


All this for a little bit of daily bread .. I should have become a plumber you know ... much easier job



grey1
 
PS:-- JUST TO REMIND YOU THAT WALL STREET IS MORE INTERESTED IN STOCKS THAT OUT PERFORMS THE MARKET. IE HIGH RELATIVE STRENGTH STOCKS
 
pipes

Grey 1 said: All this for a little bit of daily bread .. I should have become a plumber you know ... much easier job



Not if your putting in bath taps on an existing bath. I still feel the bruises :LOL: ;)
 
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Grey1,
"Why do you think the fundamentalists fail to perform ? is that because they cannot not asses what stock is cheap or not ? NO simply because their analysis over the market direction lets them down ."...been busy so this is a little belated.
Now that just depends where you think you should draw the line on fundamental analysis..if you're implying FA weaponry fails when it is applied too narrowly I'd be inclined to agree strongly. If you're implying the weapon is defective rather than the use I would disgree.
My sig "Distance = perspective gives you my point of view" on this....wider to narrower, longer to shorter is more significant than the choice of one's weapon, in other words it's less to do with what you use than it is with how you use it.
 
A beautiful long over night signal from the MIGHTY vwap engine on friday just after i came back from the hospital to give me a net profit of £1733.35 in no time .. Sold my positions to chartist.
Was it a no brainer trade Well ask those who met me and been told about HOOK signal . I think it was glen , vegans and LevII

I be trading much less next few days due to new arrival , I am goona make a trader out of him


Grey 1
 

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Awesome results, when can I buy this?

Hello MIGHTY Grey 1,

I noticed your MIGHTY vwap software wins again! AWESOME!@#@!!#!@#

When will this software be available to the general public and will there be a MIGHTY discount to all your loyal T2W followers.

Have a MIGHTY day!!!

AWESOME!@#$#$#@$)#(U%$@)#(@()#$)

StandaMIGHTYman!
 
standman,

The software is not available to public . I sold a copy of it my mate in Spain because he had lost loads and i could not really see him losing more . If i decide to sell it , it will only be to few ( 2,3 ) people whom I have known for a long time and trust in NOT copying it around .

Mean while NO SALE WHAT SO WHERE..

grey1
 
Grey1 said:
standman,

The software is not available to public . I sold a copy of it my mate in Spain because he had lost loads and i could not really see him losing more . If i decide to sell it , it will only be to few ( 2,3 ) people whom I have known for a long time and trust in NOT copying it around .

Mean while NO SALE WHAT SO WHERE..

grey1
Grey1 - I am moving to Spain shortly as I've lost all my trading money again.

I've also destroyed all my copying equipment and have conditioned myself to feel nausea at the thought of copying anything.

I'm glad we've been such close friends for the last 80 years.

BTW - any idea where I can pick up a vwap exhaustion engine, old mate?

Congrats on the new arrival. I assume it was of the human persuasion and not another one of those damned pigeons....
 
Contgratulations on the new Arrival Grey 1....... Its good to know the VWAP engine is producing good profits and babies! :) Keep it up!



Grey1 said:
A beautiful long over night signal from the MIGHTY vwap engine on friday just after i came back from the hospital to give me a net profit of £1733.35 in no time .. Sold my positions to chartist.
Was it a no brainer trade Well ask those who met me and been told about HOOK signal . I think it was glen , vegans and LevII

I be trading much less next few days due to new arrival , I am goona make a trader out of him


Grey 1
 
TheBramble said:
Grey1 - I am moving to Spain shortly as I've lost all my trading money again.

I've also destroyed all my copying equipment and have conditioned myself to feel nausea at the thought of copying anything.

I'm glad we've been such close friends for the last 80 years.

BTW - any idea where I can pick up a vwap exhaustion engine, old mate?

Congrats on the new arrival. I assume it was of the human persuasion and not another one of those damned pigeons....

How serendipitous that I accidentally clicked on this thread. I too am emigrating to Spain having blown my account trading too many HOT stocks on a homemade VWAP engine which finally died on Friday.

Any VWAP engines going spare would be gratefully received.....

Asta la vista!
 
CONSOLIDATION WHAT IS IT ?


Consolidation is the result of volume withdrawals from the stock or the market. During this period traders will be getting conflicting signals in different time frames. In another word your OB/OS oscillator will give OB signal in 1 min ( Example ) and OS in signal in 3 min ( Example ) .
When they both confirm OB or OS then there will be a price break out seen in the lower time frame . This is the first Law in MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSIS .

The second law of MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSIS states that higher time frame dominate the lower time frames.. so if DOW is OS in Weekly then that takes priority over the daily and so on . LOOK in EOD for clue to trade the intra day.

The third law of MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSIS states that momentum is born in Lower time frames ..


Facts:-- it is much much more difficult to trade consolidation as program buys/ sells are at their best during this period

Facts :-- market spends 3/4 time in consolidation ,,, 1/4 trends

Facts :-- Oscillators such as MACCI or RSI are useful in trading oscillation . ADX. MACD , .. are useless , Avoid them


Tip :-- Postion size yourself according to ATR in higher time frame scale in as lower time frame confirm not the other way round .

Tip :-- walk away from consolidation if you can be in cash . you will thank me in a few years time for this TIP






Grey1
 
Grey 1 managed to still make $ 1472 in between changing nappies, I could have made a lot more but as market was closed yesterday VWAP engine cycles analysis part, was not to be trusted as much hence lesser position size. Both trades were closed when the exhaustion engine signalled a reversal . I am all out and about and might be improving on the result .

Mean while Muchas Gracias Mr Market. both positions were sold to bottom fishers who are HOPING for reversal in a falling market.

Grey1
 

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Could not improve on the result as the energy stocks VLO SLB where more of a KOREA DRIVEN than TECHNICAL DRIVEN . I lost fair and square to both of them. I could have been up $2500 but this is trading for you . I am not sorry about losing to VLO or SLB . I should have known better.

have you ever seen any body on this BB posting his losing trades ? Some posters only post their wining trades as if they only Traded once that day lol ( woho i made 5$ run in 3 min , are not I clever )


Still up $ 1487.65

grey1
 

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