GREY1's APPROACH TO TRADING US STOCKS

[orky]

Strategy 3

Hi Grey1

May I ask if this only applies to DOW stocks or can the strategy be applied to S&P and nasdaq stocks?

Regards

Andy

Did you post this on a previous board some time ago- technical trader?

can the macci be constructed without the help of TS ?

regards.

 

[Grey1]

As it happens I knocked up a very simple test of strategy 3 this morning and ran it on SLB and NUE for longs and VLO and EOG for shorts just posting orders in Tradestation Trade Manager but not executing them.

It did not trigger any long positions.

It put me short EOG at 9:36 ET at $68.30 and my simple strategy stopped out at $68.45
It went short EOG again at 9:42 at $68.78 and stopped out at $69.02

VLO went short at 9:36 at $64.77 - stopped $65.05
VLO short again 9:42 at $64.94 and hit a trailing stop at $65.19

My initial reaction is it probably needs an overide to avoid entering trades too early in the day but I will run it for a few more days to see how it behaves.

Regards
Gareth

Correction - I had overbought/oversold set at +/- 100 not +/- 120 so probably whould not have triggered at all today with the specified parameters. I'll keep you posted.

Hi


can you give me a screen shot of your radar please

thanks

 

[Grey1]

Hi Grey1

May I ask if this only applies to DOW stocks or can the strategy be applied to S&P and nasdaq stocks?

Regards

Andy[/QUOT


it applies to any stocks

grey1

 

[Grey1]

As it happens I knocked up a very simple test of strategy 3 this morning and ran it on SLB and NUE for longs and VLO and EOG for shorts just posting orders in Tradestation Trade Manager but not executing them.

It did not trigger any long positions.

It put me short EOG at 9:36 ET at $68.30 and my simple strategy stopped out at $68.45
It went short EOG again at 9:42 at $68.78 and stopped out at $69.02

VLO went short at 9:36 at $64.77 - stopped $65.05
VLO short again 9:42 at $64.94 and hit a trailing stop at $65.19

My initial reaction is it probably needs an overide to avoid entering trades too early in the day but I will run it for a few more days to see how it behaves.

Regards
Gareth

Correction - I had overbought/oversold set at +/- 100 not +/- 120 so probably whould not have triggered at all today with the specified parameters. I'll keep you posted.

Just looked at the chart . You have shorted the wrong stock . You must short the weakest stocks ( those which gap down , in negative all day , )

AKAM was a good example to short . You choose the stock first and then wait for 3 MACCI to get to OB .




Grey1

 

[Grey1]

Hi Grey1

Thanks for the link but it doesn't seem to let one get to it.

Cheers

Steve

Edit by frugi: Sorry there was a bit missing off the end of that link. The ones below work.


This is what i have been given by sharky


1. To begin with no one has access to the forum! Users must request to
join the "Technical Traders Members" group via the Group Memberships
page in their User Control Panel here:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/profile.php?do=editusergroups - the
direct link to join your group is
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/profile.php?do=joingroup&usergroupid=30
in case you want to give that to people.

 

[LevII]

Cheers Paul I did read it from beginning to end after your point. Its quite interesting that you say it would take somebody a long time to paste a URL especially given the time component necessary to maintain this kind of thread and the apparent desire to educate and help others. I must remember to be just to helpful myself in the future, It is indeed a very endearing characteristic.

Having now read the thread from beginning to end I haven't had my curiosity satisfied as to my original question.

That said I have since changed my mind about being interested in it. My original suspicion has been confirmed.
Thanks non the less.

Dear tsuntzu,

It is contributions such as yours that raise levels of understanding to ever greater heights.

What a shame for others that they drive the truly generous grey1 to take his work to a private forum. You and 50,000 odd others are the losers.

I have watched this man trade. It is breathtaking. For the benefit of anyone who doubts this man's probity, I have seen him copy his trading screen and post it to this site.

Well done tsuntzu!

 

[garethb]

Just looked at the chart . You have shorted the wrong stock . You must short the weakest stocks ( those which gap down , in negative all day , )

AKAM was a good example to short . You choose the stock first and then wait for 3 MACCI to get to OB .

I'd have needed to be a bit more sophisticated in analysis of weak stocks to pick AKAM for the short at 9:36 since it gapped up and was pretty much still at its opening price at the time of the (false) trigger. It was,I agree, probably showing weakness from the open given the market was opening fairly strongly so I'd need a bit more relative strength analysis than simply "Gaps down and Negative". Not that there's anything wrong with more analysis - I just didn't build it into my first try at the strategy, I just picked the two biggest (in points not %) gappers up and down from my watchlist

Regards,

Gareth.

 

[Grey1]

I'd have needed to be a bit more sophisticated in analysis of weak stocks to pick AKAM for the short at 9:36 since it gapped up and was pretty much still at its opening price at the time of the (false) trigger. It was,I agree, probably showing weakness from the open given the market was opening fairly strongly so I'd need a bit more relative strength analysis than simply "Gaps down and Negative". Not that there's anything wrong with more analysis - I just didn't build it into my first try at the strategy, I just picked the two biggest (in points not %) gappers up and down from my watchlist

Regards,

Gareth.

Garteh

Actually it is not all that difficult. Either miss the open and wait untill the stocks have settled or watch the pre market or even better look for relative strenght of market to the stock ,,

IF MARKET GAPED UP STRONGLY ( LIKE YESTERDAY ) THE WEAK STOCK IS THOSE THAT SHOW HIGH PATH OF RESISTANCE TO FOLLOW THE MARKET

To be on the safe side lets market to settle down before you taking a postion..

grey1

 

[Jerry Olson]

There are many many ways to win the stock market . I will set a foundation for all levels of traders during the course of this thread.

Generally speaking there are two different approaches to intra day trading of US stocks

1) TOP DOWN APPROACH

2) BOTTOM UPAPPROACH

A top down approach is used by professionals.

A top down approach is when a trader starts with analysis of market direction first and thenmoves on to do the stock analysis .

A top down analysts there fore does not move to do any analysis what so ever on the stock unless he has done a full analysis on the market direction .

A top down analysts wants to know where market is heading ( UP, DOWN , SIDEWAY ) during the time frame that he is trading before any analysis done on the direction of the stock . A top down approach is a must for scalper to postio traders of many weeks


There fore if you ever decided to go long or short any stock you must have a definite view on where market going before taking a position . DONOT START WITH STOCK FIRST . DONOT SAY WELL APPL IS STRONG SO I AM GOING TO GO LONG . MOST TIP SHEETS YOU GET IGNORE MARKET DIRECTION AND THEY ONLY GO BY STOCKS VAL UATION DERIVED FROM FUNDAMENTALS.


Now, I want to take this issue slightly further,

The TOP DOWN approach can be expanded into

1) MARKET DIRECTION
2) SECTOR DIRECTION
3) STOCK DIRECTION

This technique is used amongst many technical or fundamentalist ( institutions/Hedge funds).

Now that we know what TOP DOWN is we introduce a strategy ..

STRATEGY 1


IF MARKET IS LONG AND SECTOR X is OUT PERFORMING THE MARKET THEN LONG STOCKS THAT OUT PERFORMING THEIR SECTOR



( REVERSE OBVIOUSLY FOR SHORT MARKET AND UNDER PERFROMING SECTORS AND STOCKS)


2) BOTTOM UP APPROACH

This is opposite of TOP DOWN and often the newbies play this game. When i say newbie i donot mean those who ae new to stock market i mean those who still have a lot to learn to make money from the market.


I will also discuss high frequency strategies in due course which reduces the need for market direction by slicing the time frame and increasing the exposure.


PS:_- There are software available that performs a TOP DOWN Approach automatically and in real time ( AIQ , OMIN TRADER )


Grey1

Hey Grey1

are you still trading???

it's me Jerry

 

[timsk]

Hey Grey1
are you still trading???
it's me Jerry

Mr. Olson,
Blow me down with a feather - we've you been for the last few years?

I thought I'd reply to your enquiry as Iraj tends to confine himself to his private forum here on T2W; 'Technical Trader' - and may not see your post. That said, I think I can answer your question with confidence and say that he most definitely is still actively trading. What about you - are you still plugging away?
Tim.

 

[Trader333]

Grey1 is very active in his trading having just given a live trading seminar to over 25 of us just over a week ago. It was a great learning experience for all who attended and where trading is concerned Grey1 is on a totally different level to anyone else I, (and many others) have come across.


Paul

 

[Jerry Olson]

Mr. Olson,
Blow me down with a feather - we've you been for the last few years?

I thought I'd reply to your enquiry as Iraj tends to confine himself to his private forum here on T2W; 'Technical Trader' - and may not see your post. That said, I think I can answer your question with confidence and say that he most definitely is still actively trading. What about you - are you still plugging away?
Tim.

Hi Tim

great to hear from you

of course i'm daytrading, and have been all this while i was not posting here.

I felt T2W was a nice spot to engage others about trading, but most people here thought i was only promoting my services...

while it was partialy true since we're still alive and kicking even throughout all this turmoil, i can say a ton of wannabie traders are long gone for lack of conviction and not following the rules.

these days i use a BLOG to post my thoughts and stock triggers for scalping so if you or anyone would like to view it please have a go...

scalpwithjerryo

also we are scalping better then ever these days even during the wildest swings i've ever encountered

i do hope you and the old gang are still hanging tough

best regards

jerry

 

[Jerry Olson]

Grey1 is very active in his trading having just given a live trading seminar to over 25 of us just over a week ago. It was a great learning experience for all who attended and where trading is concerned Grey1 is on a totally different level to anyone else I, (and many others) have come across.


Paul

Hi Paul

actually you're correct IraJ is one terrific trader i always enjoyed him in our trading room....

we had a blast in there...hope you're doing well

 

[Grey1]

Hey Grey1

are you still trading???

it's me Jerry

Hi Jerry ,,

Grey1 cannot dance cannot sing cannot pull the tall blonde chicks ( Now I am lying lol ) but Can TRADE the equity market easily .

Grey1 been short of the market since SEP with his portfolio outperforming Bill Ackman's by around 800%. Well he should have listened to his global strategist when he was warned on the possibility of a recession and what did he do ? He went LONG TGT ,,, No good to find fantastic stocks when market is heading down ..

Did I hear he was the 2007 TOP hedge fund mangaer ?


Any way how you doing my man Jerry ?

Grey1

 

[Jerry Olson]

Hi Jerry ,,

Full time none stop and been short of market since SEP ..

How you doing

Grey1

Hey Iraj

doing super good, same thing different day my UK friend..

you know me we countertrended all last week..........:clap:

over the last -5 months we've been trading the ETF's XLF-XHB-XLE a lot and the Pro shares Ultra Short 2X the specific index..

i've stopped all traders from using any stock over 100++ per share since the intraday volatility is way to wild for those types of stocks...

so we're sticking to the good sectors, a couple of stocks within the confines of that sector and of course the trend of the day...

But Iraj we are still here still scalping for a living, using option trades when we can get a pop in trend etc...

all sideline cash is still on the sidelines...............:cheesy:

glad to see your still working hard for the education of others...

warmest regards

jer

 

[Jerry Olson]

Hi Jerry ,,

Grey1 cannot dance cannot sing cannot pull the tall blonde chicks ( Now I am lying lol ) but Can TRADE the equity market easily .

Grey1 been short of the market since SEP with his portfolio outperforming Bill Ackman's by around 800%. Well he should have listened to his global strategist when he was warned on the possibility of a recession and what did he do ? He went LONG TGT ,,, No good to find fantastic stocks when market is heading down ..

Did I hear he was the 2007 TOP hedge fund mangaer ?


Any way how you doing my man Jerry ?

Oops i missed this "edit" Grey 1...800% nice work there my man..

as for me? doing exactly as i always do make a living each week trading the markets. I have been using a lot of ETF's and Pro Shares to trade intraday instead of individual stock selctions.. I like using them because you can identify a certain strong or weak sector during the day..

As for Ackamn i have no clue who he is Grey...

now when you get a chance here' is my daily comentary on my Blog...

scalpwithjerryo

i am thinking we're in for a huge rally coming either this week or next

Oh Jeryr O can dance and can sing, but tall blondes? not my style........:clap:

best & warmest regards

jerry

ps: buy the builders this week use the XHB and TOL what the hell it's only money: lol:

 

[Trader333]

i am thinking we're in for a huge rally coming either this week or next

All the CNBC analysts have been saying the same week after week and the market just keeps going down. It is wishful thinking at best and bottom fishing at worse which I have yet to see accurately predicted by anyone. No one is being fooled by all the measures being taken to try and stabilise the market decline. The worry now is that if BS has made huge losses then who is next that we have yet to find out about and this in itself is enough to prevent any sustainable rally in my view.

I agree with Grey1 in that the market has more downward movement to go before any real improvement can be expected.

You say a rally is expected well I am curious to know based on what reasons as it would suddenly require a global boost in confidence none of which there is any evidence for anywhere at all.


Paul

 

[Jerry Olson]

All the CNBC analysts have been saying the same week after week and the market just keeps going down. It is wishful thinking at best and bottom fishing at worse which I have yet to see accurately predicted by anyone. No one is being fooled by all the measures being taken to try and stabilise the market decline. The worry now is that if BS has made huge losses then who is next that we have yet to find out about and this in itself is enough to prevent any sustainable rally in my view.

I agree with Grey1 in that the market has more downward movement to go before any real improvement can be expected.

You say a rally is expected well I am curious to know based on what reasons as it would suddenly require a global boost in confidence none of which there is any evidence for anywhere at all.


Paul

Morning Paul

it is my contention that this capitulation sell off this moring here in the US is exactly what i was looking for...The spike up on the VIX toward 37 will be a triple top, last August 07 last Jan 08 we spiked there and then a huge rally ensued..this time will be the same as well..

i have not called for a bottom until this weekend in my blog...

The bullish percents are all sitting at areas that "could" make higher lows on reversals back up on their charts

i am looking for an outside bullish reversal bar today or in the next week to confirm my read...

i'll buy this dip today for sure

good luck all

jerry

 

[Jerry Olson]

Morning Paul

it is my contention that this capitulation sell off this moring here in the US is exactly what i was looking for...The spike up on the VIX toward 37 will be a triple top, last August 07 last Jan 08 we spiked there and then a huge rally ensued..this time will be the same as well..

i have not called for a bottom until this weekend in my blog...

The bullish percents are all sitting at areas that "could" make higher lows on reversals back up on their charts

i am looking for an outside bullish reversal bar today or in the next week to confirm my read...

i'll buy this dip today for sure

good luck all

jerry

Just aheadsup all

Things look very good here...but you must wait for the FOMC results at 2:15 pm eastern time here in the US...

my thinking is they cut either .75 or 100 basios points along with more cuts in the discount rate too.

bullish for the markets in general

the Financials and Builders are doing fantastic today

and if you check out my blog you'll see how we all daytraded this morning

good luck to all and please drop by the real tiem trading room on Paltalk...

we have a sensational group of high class traders there

see you later

jerry

 

[Tantalus]

I have a question about stocks that do not shadow the INDU as much as others. Industrials are obviously prime candidates to shadow the market but I've noticed alot of the volatile stocks chosen are oil, and these can often be negatively correllated with the dow. Does this matter?