FX4Newbies
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Goldmine!
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FX4Newbies
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FX4Newbies
Established member
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FX4Newbies
Established member
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FX4Newbies
Established member
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FX4Newbies
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Enjoy July 4th (US)
Just wanted to wish the US traders a happy July 4th holiday weekend.
May not post until next week.
Take care,
__________
Just wanted to wish the US traders a happy July 4th holiday weekend.
May not post until next week.
Take care,
__________
FX4Newbies
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Pitchforks, Chart Patterns and False Breakouts!
Hello Traders,
Just couldn't pass on this post. For some time now I have told people that I do not look to trade chart patterns...triangles, flags etc., though they can give insight into the fact that the market might be in a continuation consolidation pattern.
The chart attached is very interesting as it shows a false breakout (very characteristic of trading these patterns), but notice that price found support on a Pitchfork Warning Line. Other Pitchfork usages would also have confirmed a Price Failure so fork traders would have been looking for a reversal.
Chart again demonstrates the versatility of this tool. "Dr. Andrews, you were a genius!" So were Babson and the other forerunners.
Take care and enjoy your weekend.
Hello Traders,
Just couldn't pass on this post. For some time now I have told people that I do not look to trade chart patterns...triangles, flags etc., though they can give insight into the fact that the market might be in a continuation consolidation pattern.
The chart attached is very interesting as it shows a false breakout (very characteristic of trading these patterns), but notice that price found support on a Pitchfork Warning Line. Other Pitchfork usages would also have confirmed a Price Failure so fork traders would have been looking for a reversal.
Chart again demonstrates the versatility of this tool. "Dr. Andrews, you were a genius!" So were Babson and the other forerunners.
Take care and enjoy your weekend.
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yellowroses
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Re: u r supressing any activity because u dont have any idea what to do
1 trade in 214 posts. Lots of no-decision Wait here and wait there watch the lines, then good-bye to price. Seething and waiting.
1 trade in 214 posts. Lots of no-decision Wait here and wait there watch the lines, then good-bye to price. Seething and waiting.
FX4Newbies
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Re: u r supressing any activity because u dont have any idea what to do
Hello again Yellowroses,
There were more a few more that I posted but if you read my intro, I mention posting my analysis and trades to share with others. Posting my analysis has taken on a life of its own. Will try to post more trades, but if the analysis is correct, that should speak for itself.
Thanks for stopping by again. By the way, what method do you use?
Take care,
Hello again Yellowroses,
There were more a few more that I posted but if you read my intro, I mention posting my analysis and trades to share with others. Posting my analysis has taken on a life of its own. Will try to post more trades, but if the analysis is correct, that should speak for itself.
Thanks for stopping by again. By the way, what method do you use?
Take care,
yellowroses
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Re: u r supressing any activity because u dont have any idea what to do
The kind you click the mouse.
The kind you click the mouse.
FX4Newbies
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Re: u r supressing any activity because u dont have any idea what to do
LOL
. It is not hard to have an idea of what to do when your set-up and entry are in place. But, I understand where you are. Can't quite figure out how my click helps you. The benefit of that trade goes to me. Unless knowing that it happened gives you confidence in what the analysis clearly shows. What I have found though, is that many times when people insist on seeing a live trade, with live entries etc. they are really looking for picks. Like I said, will try to post more. By the way, you did not mention what you use. If you choose not to share that is fine.
Take care,
LOL
. It is not hard to have an idea of what to do when your set-up and entry are in place. But, I understand where you are. Can't quite figure out how my click helps you. The benefit of that trade goes to me. Unless knowing that it happened gives you confidence in what the analysis clearly shows. What I have found though, is that many times when people insist on seeing a live trade, with live entries etc. they are really looking for picks. Like I said, will try to post more. By the way, you did not mention what you use. If you choose not to share that is fine.Take care,
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FX4Newbies
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yellowroses
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Re: u r supressing any activity because u dont have any idea what to do
There are no live signals. You talk about setups and supports according to your fork, but it is always looking behind. No forward-looking analysis. Nothing that shows you know how to make your fork work. My 6-year old spotted a candle sitting on top of your fork as your most recent post, but he can't give me a trading signal. Just like you can't.
The only way you show your fork is effective is by posting a forecast in advance. Anyone can say see that is what happened----after the fact. Just like your title says, U r suppressing activity because you don't know what to do. Many of your posts indicate that. Proper analysis is where you say this is the chart where we stand now, this is where price is headed. Not, "it hit my target and my target 2" after the fact. It's not hard 2 c, u can talk the fork, but not trade the fork.
There are no live signals. You talk about setups and supports according to your fork, but it is always looking behind. No forward-looking analysis. Nothing that shows you know how to make your fork work. My 6-year old spotted a candle sitting on top of your fork as your most recent post, but he can't give me a trading signal. Just like you can't.
The only way you show your fork is effective is by posting a forecast in advance. Anyone can say see that is what happened----after the fact. Just like your title says, U r suppressing activity because you don't know what to do. Many of your posts indicate that. Proper analysis is where you say this is the chart where we stand now, this is where price is headed. Not, "it hit my target and my target 2" after the fact. It's not hard 2 c, u can talk the fork, but not trade the fork.
LOL
Take care,
yellowroses
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Re: Pitchforks, Chart Patterns and False Breakouts!
Any1 can show exceptions after the move. U don't trade chart patterns because u don't know how 2.
Sideways markets always eclipse your forks. Sideways markets on 1 hour charts always show up, because there is a time of day when the markets go to sleep, like not much volume.
So forks never have a false breakout!?
Oh well, I made my point.
Any1 can show exceptions after the move. U don't trade chart patterns because u don't know how 2.
Sideways markets always eclipse your forks. Sideways markets on 1 hour charts always show up, because there is a time of day when the markets go to sleep, like not much volume.
So forks never have a false breakout!?
Oh well, I made my point.
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Re: u r supressing any activity because u dont have any idea what to do
All I can say is to encourage you to go back several charts earlier. My targets in yellow were posted in advance.
Check this page, Post 205: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/95392-goldmine-26.html.
There are others, just look around.
Take care,
All I can say is to encourage you to go back several charts earlier. My targets in yellow were posted in advance.
Check this page, Post 205: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/95392-goldmine-26.html.
There are others, just look around.
Take care,
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FX4Newbies
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Re: Pitchforks, Chart Patterns and False Breakouts!
Yellowroses,
It is clear to me that you do not understand Pitchforks. A Pitchfork on the M15 time-frame showed the beginning of the turn back up...indicating the false breakout from the triangle was in the making way before the move was complete. By the way I would encourage you to do some research regarding the statistics of breakout-type trades from these types of consolidation/continuation patterns. In many cases, the success rate is less than 50% (and that percentage is generous in several cases).
Regarding your comment about false "breakouts" with Pitchforks: even when the price fails to make it to the ML, the likely target, it is a signal. The term "breakout" as you may know it really doesn't come into play with pitchforks...what you might consider a "false breakout" is a confirming message by the fork and its related lines. It's like a double-edged sword...messages on both sides...if you understand it.
You are absolutely right that the market does consolidate during slow periods. However, if you observe you will find many times that price consolidates within the constraints of the Pitchfork lines, which are acting as Support and Resistance.
There is not much more I can explain here except to say that as I keep posting maybe it will become clearer to you.
Wishing you well in your trading,
Yellowroses,
It is clear to me that you do not understand Pitchforks. A Pitchfork on the M15 time-frame showed the beginning of the turn back up...indicating the false breakout from the triangle was in the making way before the move was complete. By the way I would encourage you to do some research regarding the statistics of breakout-type trades from these types of consolidation/continuation patterns. In many cases, the success rate is less than 50% (and that percentage is generous in several cases).
Regarding your comment about false "breakouts" with Pitchforks: even when the price fails to make it to the ML, the likely target, it is a signal. The term "breakout" as you may know it really doesn't come into play with pitchforks...what you might consider a "false breakout" is a confirming message by the fork and its related lines. It's like a double-edged sword...messages on both sides...if you understand it.
You are absolutely right that the market does consolidate during slow periods. However, if you observe you will find many times that price consolidates within the constraints of the Pitchfork lines, which are acting as Support and Resistance.
There is not much more I can explain here except to say that as I keep posting maybe it will become clearer to you.
Wishing you well in your trading,
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FX4Newbies
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Price Still Sideways
Just posting a progress report:
Price was sideways during the night and early morning. Dropped some, finding support at a percentile line of the fork (which can be a Fib percentile). No clear direction. Maybe the market is taking the day off.
Please note that the gray Pitchfork could be drawn in as early as the high at 1.2611. It would have therefore shown a sideways bias at least 5 hours before the major congestion began.
Take care,
Just posting a progress report:
Price was sideways during the night and early morning. Dropped some, finding support at a percentile line of the fork (which can be a Fib percentile). No clear direction. Maybe the market is taking the day off
.Please note that the gray Pitchfork could be drawn in as early as the high at 1.2611. It would have therefore shown a sideways bias at least 5 hours before the major congestion began.
Take care,
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Hi there Newbies
Waded through this thread about A Pitchfork (on a real slow day - although made some pips on cable) - never really looked at it before
From your posts, rules for drawing pitchforks are that you identify 3 alternating pivots and draw PF, the next PF uses the pivots 2 and 3 of the old for 1 and 2 of the new pf and then 3 is the next pivot in the sequence H, L H - L, H, L - so far so good
The questions I have are:
at what point do you draw a new PF - when price has moved outside your existing PF, when price makes a new pivot (and if so how do you identify this as pivots make take at least 1 further bar to form)
when do you delete old PFs - part of the methodology appears to be identifying SR areas where PF tines intersect
what are your entry criteria - you say that you like to enter near S R to manage risk and if you are wrong to avoid being too expensive finding out - is the entry based just on reversal candle patterns near identified SR areas - or do you have other indicators SS etc
But interesting thread - looking forward to some of your posts where you identify trades you have made (not fussed as to before or after the event)
Waded through this thread about A Pitchfork (on a real slow day - although made some pips on cable) - never really looked at it before
From your posts, rules for drawing pitchforks are that you identify 3 alternating pivots and draw PF, the next PF uses the pivots 2 and 3 of the old for 1 and 2 of the new pf and then 3 is the next pivot in the sequence H, L H - L, H, L - so far so good
The questions I have are:
at what point do you draw a new PF - when price has moved outside your existing PF, when price makes a new pivot (and if so how do you identify this as pivots make take at least 1 further bar to form)
when do you delete old PFs - part of the methodology appears to be identifying SR areas where PF tines intersect
what are your entry criteria - you say that you like to enter near S R to manage risk and if you are wrong to avoid being too expensive finding out - is the entry based just on reversal candle patterns near identified SR areas - or do you have other indicators SS etc
But interesting thread - looking forward to some of your posts where you identify trades you have made (not fussed as to before or after the event)
FX4Newbies
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Hello NKE,
Thanks for taking some of your free time today to wade through as you put it. Lots of questions that I will try to answer without beginning a full teaching session on the subject. There are many related concepts that people don't see from a surface or introductory perspective.
A new PF is usually drawn when it appears that a new pivot is forming, that would be the beginning of a change in direction or trend.
If price goes beyond the PF lines (tines), there are associated lines that are drawn to give meaning to that price action. A new PF may not always be needed at that time.
If a PF is drawn "prematurely" meaning, before the final pivot prior to the actual turn, there is a built in method of interpreting the PF that will assist in determining if price is not yet ready to turn.
Old PFs are generally deleted when price no longer seems to respect the tines or associated lines.
Entry criteria is generally when price tests and re-tests tines. However, understanding price action and market structure is majorly important, if not more important. Too many traders in my estimation are focused on putting tools on charts, without paying attention to price action. The purpose of the tools or indicators is to crystallize to the trader what they are already seeing...just my approach. Other traders may include technical tools like Fibs etc. though some use the PF and its related lines and concepts only.
Working on making my trades available without too much more posting of charts being necessary.
Thanks again for your inquiry. If you think you would like to take my pitchfork trading course (10 sessions), please send me a private message.
Take care,
FX4Newbies
I believe your understanding of how pivots are selected as you have described is correct.
Thanks for taking some of your free time today to wade through as you put it
. Lots of questions that I will try to answer without beginning a full teaching session on the subject. There are many related concepts that people don't see from a surface or introductory perspective.A new PF is usually drawn when it appears that a new pivot is forming, that would be the beginning of a change in direction or trend.
If price goes beyond the PF lines (tines), there are associated lines that are drawn to give meaning to that price action. A new PF may not always be needed at that time.
If a PF is drawn "prematurely" meaning, before the final pivot prior to the actual turn, there is a built in method of interpreting the PF that will assist in determining if price is not yet ready to turn.
Old PFs are generally deleted when price no longer seems to respect the tines or associated lines.
Entry criteria is generally when price tests and re-tests tines. However, understanding price action and market structure is majorly important, if not more important. Too many traders in my estimation are focused on putting tools on charts, without paying attention to price action. The purpose of the tools or indicators is to crystallize to the trader what they are already seeing...just my approach. Other traders may include technical tools like Fibs etc. though some use the PF and its related lines and concepts only.
Working on making my trades available without too much more posting of charts being necessary.
Thanks again for your inquiry. If you think you would like to take my pitchfork trading course (10 sessions), please send me a private message.
Take care,
FX4Newbies
I believe your understanding of how pivots are selected as you have described is correct.
Hi Newbies
thanks for replying to my questions. I can see that each new swing will generate its own reaction;
I can see that PF generate trend lines and targets - but not sure how well they cope with normal horizontal SR, which in my experience is usually at least as important as trend lines. I'll follow your posts for a while and see how price respects the PF you have drawn
Sorry about "waded"; that sounds rude on re reading - not meant to be
thanks
thanks for replying to my questions. I can see that each new swing will generate its own reaction;
I can see that PF generate trend lines and targets - but not sure how well they cope with normal horizontal SR, which in my experience is usually at least as important as trend lines. I'll follow your posts for a while and see how price respects the PF you have drawn
Sorry about "waded"; that sounds rude on re reading - not meant to be
thanks
