Fun With PitchForks

Great vids Steele, thanks so much. I just had a look at the chart I posted and applied my new knowledge to it. That would have made a killer trade! It's a lot simpler than I was expecting, I think even I can have a go at this!

Yes, I like to keep things as simple as possible for real life trading.


Actually, I also have a suggestion, hope you don't mind. But I was thinking - you know when there is a 5th swing once the 88 is passed. You look at how the candle closes in relation to the pitchforks. That part is a bit vague for me. I mean, at which point is too high? Or low if the case may be. So why not use the 88 fib for that too? Draw it from the subfork median line to the low/high and if it closes in the 88 then trade it. Would that work? I like to have strict rules to follow thats why that came to mind instantly!

For the most part I use about the 2/3 level. Not set in stone but that's about the place I start feeling ok about getting into a trade.
If you want to use the 88% level then please feel free!(y)


Oh and by the way - I noticed when you were drawing your subforks that they were sometimes snapping to places you didn't want. You can turn that magnet off if you want. Just go to Tools>Options>Objects and change magnet sensitivity to 0. Sorry if you knew that already!

I just use that charting with my demo account that I test every thing on.
I also do the videos with those charts so I don't give away any important information by way of oopsing things up.
I trade with Oanda (their charts suck rotten eggs by the way) so thank you I will do that cause I really never took the time to figure out a way to stop the "snapping".



Thanks again for the videos. I'm already excited to give this a go! What TF do you use? 1hr? How do you handle money management, do you always exit in stages? You looking at any setups at the moment? If so just tell me the pair and I'll try and see if I can draw the same lines! Cheers!

You are welcome for the videos. Glad you liked them as much as you did.
I use the one hour charts almost always. Some times I go out to dailies, but not very often. From the account that I trade this setup with I risk 5% on a trade. Steep for some but I seem to handle it well enough. I will explain in another video how I really trade the forks. I enter like I said in the videos but I mean what I do to make my calculations on risk and all that good stuff. Before I do that I will have to explain why pitchforks seem to work so well to our friend. That is for tomorrow though...
Have a great night or should I say morning!

Sam.
Sam, seems like I have heard that before, hmmm

Sam.




:)
 
You're right 88 is a bit tight. 2/3 seems much better. Maybe I'll add a 66% line on my fib indicator for that. Oh and yes it was morning here when you posted that... Insomnia is a terrible thing! Will try and post charts here when I find setups. Take it easy.

Sam.
 
A bunch of dang tails!

picture.php
picture.php
picture.php
 
I can understand the concept of support and resistance, and support becoming resistance, whether or not they work is always argued, but the concept at least makes sense to me. Likewise, I can understand why trendlines could work, they're a bit subjective to me, but again the concept makes some sense. As does the concept of momentum and some other things. What I can't understand is the concept of the pitchfork. Can you explain why it works or should work?


Putting a pitchfork on the chart basically gives you trend lines to use as vectored support and resistance lines. (Vectored meaning including price and time in one line)

Using the last three important swings gives you a "standardized" way of doing that to help remove some subjectivity. (Classic Andrews Pitchfork)

Using the methods that I do help remove more subjectivity by adding rules to use the fork in real time.
The most simple reason that it "should work" is because you are using the price chart its self to estimate the future price movement.
Basically, you are setting up a channel on the chart and then dividing that channel into the top half and the bottom half. As 50% is the most basic of all ratios (dividing by 2) the median line "holds" the price nicely a lot of the time.

You could also divide the channel by thirds and quarters and other ratios of the whole but this just starts to add second guessing in my opinion. I like to keep thinks as simple as possible.
I hope this helps.
If you have any more questions then please feel free to ask.(y)
 
Steele,

Sorry for all the questions but I have a couple more if you don't mind!

1. In the last part of the last video, and in the charts you just posted, you're looking for shorts where the 5th swing has extended so far that both of the pitchforks are pointing upwards. Are you quite happy to take shorts at the top of up sloping pitchforks? I only ask as I have analysed some of the same charts as you above and had the same outcome and wasn't sure if it would still be valid or not.

2. Is there some significance of the 88% level or is it just something you have observed over time?

I think I had another question too but I forgot so that will do for now. Cheers,

Sam.
 
Steele,

Sorry for all the questions but I have a couple more if you don't mind!

Questions are always fine.

1. In the last part of the last video, and in the charts you just posted, you're looking for shorts where the 5th swing has extended so far that both of the pitchforks are pointing upwards. Are you quite happy to take shorts at the top of up sloping pitchforks? I only ask as I have analysed some of the same charts as you above and had the same outcome and wasn't sure if it would still be valid or not.

The slope of the fork is not important to me at this point as I have not seen enough to make it so. I go long if swing 5 comes out at the bottom of a fork and short when it's at the top.

2. Is there some significance of the 88% level or is it just something you have observed over time?

Is 88 significant? Haven't you ever seen "Back To The Future"? Coupled with the Flux capacitor it's what makes time travel possible!

I think I had another question too but I forgot so that will do for now. Cheers,
:LOL:
Oh, sorry 'bout that

Sam.


P.S. Over many forks that I have put on charts I have found that 88% seems to be the best middle ground. You would be surprised how many swing extremes that catches.
 
Cheers for answering my Q's. Any trades today Steeley? Guess its still pretty early there?
 
Cheers for answering my Q's. Any trades today Steeley? Guess its still pretty early there?

Had a late night last night. My aunt and uncle from Michigan cam down and we all went out to eat and visit.
As such I just got up and on and see a couple of trade set ups that I missed by about forty five minutes. :(.
Will keep my eyes open and check the charts once an hour to see what come up.
 
What pairs did you miss the setups on. I can't really see anything, everything looks like it would have been stopped out to me!

Sam.
 
These are the two trades that I am in right now.

picture.php
picture.php


My first target was hit on the EUR-GBP so that trade will now be a winner even if I'm stopped out of the second part.
The yen I did not use a sub-fork so I have only one target.
 
Sorry the response took so long I was putting selves up in my daughters room.
Staying away from the trades after I have take profits and stop losses set is a good thing for me.:cheesy:

Why don't you load the charts where the trades would have been stopped out.
 
Well the yen hit my target so I am out of that trade.
Still waiting on the EUR-GBP.

picture.php

picture.php
 
How about dollar swiss? This would have been stopped out right? It just kept going down today. Did you get stopped on the second part of your EUR/GBP trade? Seems to have moved up after your post :(

AUD/JPY would have been a good entry put looking a little precarious now....

Let me know if my lines are right!
 

Attachments

  • USDCHFH1.png
    USDCHFH1.png
    47.9 KB · Views: 141
  • AUDJPYH1.png
    AUDJPYH1.png
    54.7 KB · Views: 135
How about dollar swiss? This would have been stopped out right? It just kept going down today. Did you get stopped on the second part of your EUR/GBP trade? Seems to have moved up after your post :(

AUD/JPY would have been a good entry put looking a little precarious now....

Let me know if my lines are right!


I did get out of the EUR-GBP trade as a candle just skimmed the 2nd target before it went back up.
The USD-CHF would have been a couple of stop outs and some break evens as I would have used sub-forks in most of those setups. The reason being that the main-fork channel lines had more than the 40-50 pips in most cases. (At least the ones I looked at.)
This is not one of the markets I like to look at though.
I watch the following:
EUR-USD
GBP-USD
EUR-GBP
USD-JPY
EUR-CHF



picture.php
 
How about dollar swiss? This would have been stopped out right? It just kept going down today. Did you get stopped on the second part of your EUR/GBP trade? Seems to have moved up after your post :(

AUD/JPY would have been a good entry put looking a little precarious now....

Let me know if my lines are right!


Forgot to say that it looks like the AUD-JPY is still hanging in there for the time being.
 
These are the two trades I am in right now.
They are both longer term trades with the forks drawn on the daily charts.

picture.php
picture.php
 
You are short GPB/USD on the dailies and I am long on the hourlies.
 

Attachments

  • GBPUSDH1.png
    GBPUSDH1.png
    44.2 KB · Views: 137
Mine is just a demo trade though. In the case of the above chart - would you move your target down as the candles progress? What about stoploss?
 
Well I just had my only target as the subfork median line on that trade, as I don't know how to split my targets up yet, and its been hit already. This is why I want to trade for a living - I'd have just made more in half an hour of sitting on my ass than I would have made in a week of running around in work serving drunk idiots!!!
 
Mine is just a demo trade though. In the case of the above chart - would you move your target down as the candles progress? What about stoploss?


If the difference is more than about 3-5% then yes I do.
 
Top