Gold - Commodity or currency?

[JahDave]

5 Signs Gold Has Peaked

http://financialedge.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0611/5-Signs-Gold-Has-Peaked.aspx

My gold target is still 1650 - financial crises is not over by far. On the contrary consequences about to hit us with inflation / stagflation.

Talk of rise in interest rates somewhat funny - how will governments finance their debt otherwise.

Inflation is about the only solution with long term negative interest rates.

In my opinion, inflation can only happen if the money supply is expanded and accepted by the masses................Right now the Fed is trying to expand the money supply, but banks are not lending and people are not borrowing.............I think this is leading to deflation right now...............I think hyperinflation will come at some point in the future,,,,,,,,,,,but not for several more years............I think we will be in a deflationary period for at least 3 years.............This will mean that the stock indexes will drop worldwide and that commodities will drop as well for the next several years...

 

[Atilla]

5 Signs Gold Has Peaked

http://financialedge.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0611/5-Signs-Gold-Has-Peaked.aspx

My gold target is still 1650 - financial crises is not over by far. On the contrary consequences about to hit us with inflation / stagflation.

Talk of rise in interest rates somewhat funny - how will governments finance their debt otherwise.

Inflation is about the only solution with long term negative interest rates.

In my opinion, inflation can only happen if the money supply is expanded and accepted by the masses................Right now the Fed is trying to expand the money supply, but banks are not lending and people are not borrowing.............I think this is leading to deflation right now...............I think hyperinflation will come at some point in the future,,,,,,,,,,,but not for several more years............I think we will be in a deflationary period for at least 3 years.............This will mean that the stock indexes will drop worldwide and that commodities will drop as well for the next several years...

Hi JahDave,

The evidence does not support your claim.

Prices are going up - weather it is to do with energy, oil or food stuffs is not important. Prices ARE going up. To compensate people are spending less else where and economy has slowed down.

You are looking at stagflation not deflation. Important to get distinction right.

Stock indexes have risen - but I feel this is more to do with adjustment to the dollar's purchasing power. You need more dollars to value those companies. If you value them in gold stock indexes have fallen.

If commodities have risen in the worst of the recession what do you base your conclusion on - that they will drop for the next three years as we come out?

Even if Europeans have a big macro hit and start defaulting - there is now sufficient growth and demand in other parts of the world to maintain demand. Other nations have defaulted before Argentina and Russia came pretty close but they managed to service their debt. Recovery didn't take that long. Be even less for Europe.

Any shocks to the system will be temporary blips and when it happens gold will rise further. People will have seen both the mighty dollar and the euro to be exposed to market shocks and turmoil.

 

[new_trader]

Not, I don't find it all that interesting, to be brutally honest with you.

Do you remember how many people in 06-07 were talking publicly on national TV about how houses could never go down in value and how subprime was not an issue? Have you not noticed how nowadays more and more people in the US are prepared to talk all sorts of bullsh1t, generally? For God's sake, Donald Trump was gonna run for friggin' president! So, no, given the increasing number of coconuts on TV these days, nothing really surprises me.

People on national TV are often spectacularly wrong. Sometimes they pursue their very own ulterior motives. Sometimes they're just idiots.

Yes, people like Ben Bernanke!! The very man who needs to be controlled by a gold standard. The people who DID see the financial crisis coming and want to abolish the FED are the ones who want the USA back on a gold standard. Using Donald Trump to back up your argument...sheesh... who next, Snooki?

 

[new_trader]

In my opinion, inflation can only happen if the money supply is expanded and accepted by the masses................Right now the Fed is trying to expand the money supply, but banks are not lending and people are not borrowing.............I think this is leading to deflation right now...............I think hyperinflation will come at some point in the future,,,,,,,,,,,but not for several more years............I think we will be in a deflationary period for at least 3 years.............This will mean that the stock indexes will drop worldwide and that commodities will drop as well for the next several years...

The money supply has already been inflated, and continues to be inflated.

 

[Atilla]

Not, I don't find it all that interesting, to be brutally honest with you.

Do you remember how many people in 06-07 were talking publicly on national TV about how houses could never go down in value and how subprime was not an issue? Have you not noticed how nowadays more and more people in the US are prepared to talk all sorts of bullsh1t, generally? For God's sake, Donald Trump was gonna run for friggin' president! So, no, given the increasing number of coconuts on TV these days, nothing really surprises me.

People on national TV are often spectacularly wrong. Sometimes they pursue their very own ulterior motives. Sometimes they're just idiots.

What you say is true and there are many clowns and comedians in the circus but this is where your own judgement call comes in to play.

Think this one through!

How would you have viewed Christopher Columbus claiming the World was round and not flat? Asking you for a loan to prove it to you?


A) Give him a kick up the bum and send him to the dungeons
B) Give him the loan with interest


???

 

[Atilla]

Not, I don't find it all that interesting, to be brutally honest with you.

Do you remember how many people in 06-07 were talking publicly on national TV about how houses could never go down in value and how subprime was not an issue? Have you not noticed how nowadays more and more people in the US are prepared to talk all sorts of bullsh1t, generally? For God's sake, Donald Trump was gonna run for friggin' president! So, no, given the increasing number of coconuts on TV these days, nothing really surprises me.

People on national TV are often spectacularly wrong. Sometimes they pursue their very own ulterior motives. Sometimes they're just idiots.

This blog reminded me of this moment in history... Must be the biggest slip of the century after CIA slam dunk case against Saddam...

 

[new_trader]

Ben Bernanke doesn't want a gold standard...neither does Martinghoul 😆

 

[new_trader]

Ron Paul wants a gold standard.

 

[new_trader]

The money supply has already been inflated, and continues to be inflated.

 

[new_trader]

What you say is true and there are many clowns and comedians in the circus but this is where your own judgement call comes in to play.

???

What are you talking about Atilla...Judgement? Martinghoul's rebuttal was ridiculous to say the least and if anything it did more to support the case for a gold standard. You either understand the gold standard or you don't, judgement has zero to do with it.

 

[Atilla]

What are you talking about Atilla...Judgement? Martinghoul's rebuttal was ridiculous to say the least and if anything it did more to support the case for a gold standard. You either understand the gold standard or you don't, judgement has zero to do with it.

His judgement call - when he listens to the case for and againts.

He can make up his own mind.


Regarding your Bernanke post - I was thinking if he has ever made an accurate call, projection or estimation of where the economy is heading. For the FED who are supposed to have a handle in all this - similar to CIA who are supposed to have the intelligence, just how can the most advance country in the world get it so wrong???

The mind boggles.

Almost a safe bet - to bet againts the Feds assessment of the economy.

 

[forker]

Have you ever wondered if the USA didn't get it wrong. Could this be a strategic move against China?

 

[Atilla]

Have you ever wondered if the USA didn't get it wrong. Could this be a strategic move against China?

No. The bluff has failed along with Axis of Evil doing bastidos.

 

[Martinghoul]

martinghoul if you dont mind me askin what kind of trader are you? like a prop trader or local or MM or flow or in a hedge fund?

because sometimes you say thing that obviously mean you are well clever in the maths side of bonds, also you have sort of disdain on threads like this one, and the euro one that doomplonker just did the other day.

I dont mean it in a nasty way to you, it makes me think that you are a serious operator. Anyway all this is leading up to would be if you would think about doing an example of one of your trades? like the pre-trade analysis, the management, yadda yadda yadda. I rekon it would be well good reading for the rest of us chumps 🙂

bisous

Dash

It's actually a pretty decent idea, I think...

I'll do one of 'em "serious threads", a la Le Arab, and I am sure I can come up with a trade (or a couple) in there, which should be smth that we all can look at (i.e. something in, let's say, STIRs or bond futures, rather than bonds). In general, my analysis is never too sophisticated and, really, it's all about common-sense, rather than some crazy math. In fact, the whole quant side of trading is wildly overblown, IMHO.

FWIW, I certainly don't intend any disdain in any of my posts, so if it comes out that way, I'm sorry.

 

[Martinghoul]

Yes, people like Ben Bernanke!! The very man who needs to be controlled by a gold standard. The people who DID see the financial crisis coming and want to abolish the FED are the ones who want the USA back on a gold standard. Using Donald Trump to back up your argument...sheesh... who next, Snooki?

Huh? You're not making any sense here, man... Really, just think a tiny bit about the argument I have made and you will hopefully understand my point (it's quite simple). Then you might realize that posting more videos of people saying things on TV is, how do I say it, rather silly.

 

[DashRiprock]

It's actually a pretty decent idea, I think...

I'll do one of 'em "serious threads", a la Le Arab, and I am sure I can come up with a trade (or a couple) in there, which should be smth that we all can look at (i.e. something in, let's say, STIRs or bond futures, rather than bonds). In general, my analysis is never too sophisticated and, really, it's all about common-sense, rather than some crazy math. In fact, the whole quant side of trading is wildly overblown, IMHO.

FWIW, I certainly don't intend any disdain in any of my posts, so if it comes out that way, I'm sorry.

awwww WAAAY COOL!! :clap:

Ok so you trade cash bonds mostly then? Like so are you real money or hedge fund or from a bank side can I ask?

Cash bonds might be a bit complicated for most people here I think, but I dunno with the ISIN maybe people can see what the price is? but if its not in govies the prospectus for the actual bond might be hard to get. and if you do convertibles or inflations or nethin even a little bit complicated then that will go right over most peoples heads I think.

as well dont apologize for the disdain thing. I actually like your posts because of it, intentional or not 🙂 I also have lots of disdain for New Trader yappin on about Gold standard even tho I don't know all economics of if I just think he's a plonker so thats where my disdain comes from.


it'd be really good if you could mate 🙂 just dont go postin babes I sorta cornered that market k? 😆

 

[Martinghoul]

What you say is true and there are many clowns and comedians in the circus but this is where your own judgement call comes in to play.

Think this one through!

How would you have viewed Christopher Columbus claiming the World was round and not flat? Asking you for a loan to prove it to you?


A) Give him a kick up the bum and send him to the dungeons
B) Give him the loan with interest


???

Indeed, this is ultimately a judgement that all of us have to make after thinking about it. I HAVE thought about it, long and hard. Moreover, for years I have been an active participant in the areas of financial mkt that embody the particular aspects of the modern monetary system that we have been discussing. In light of my experience and based on my reasoning, it's abundantly clear to me what the advantages and flaws of the gold standard are. That, in turn, leads me to the conclusion that I have stated earlier in this thread.

 

[Martinghoul]

awwww WAAAY COOL!! :clap:

Ok so you trade cash bonds mostly then? Like so are you real money or hedge fund or from a bank side can I ask?

Cash bonds might be a bit complicated for most people here I think, but I dunno with the ISIN maybe people can see what the price is? but if its not in govies the prospectus for the actual bond might be hard to get. and if you do convertibles or inflations or nethin even a little bit complicated then that will go right over most peoples heads I think.

as well dont apologize for the disdain thing. I actually like your posts because of it, intentional or not 🙂 I also have lots of disdain for New Trader yappin on about Gold standard even tho I don't know all economics of if I just think he's a plonker so thats where my disdain comes from.


it'd be really good if you could mate 🙂 just dont go postin babes I sorta cornered that market k? 😆

Well, I do rates, generally, which may include cash bonds (incl linkers), futures, options, etc. I am not RM and I sure as hell don't work for no bank. Generally, we don't have to look at bonds, certainly not to begin with, given the unfamiliar territory. I am pretty sure we don't have to and we could find a trade to look at that's a lot closer to home.

 

[DashRiprock]

OK Martinghoul well I guess the ball is in your court, as and when you get the chance I think there would be lots of people from the wings that would be very interested to see what actually goes on at the sharp end 🙂

only one request, if you please, would be not to dumb it down too much? if you make the effort to write it then people here should pull finger out and do homework on whats what. JMHO.

(If you have any particular tastes in babes I can obline in my schlong thread, or other thing I can do is rejuvenate my efforts at getting PC on teh CMC thread to prove he is actually Pter Crudass by standing on trading floor with sign saying "DashRiprock is cool and Michael Spencer is a tw@t" and posting picture. If you want I can ask for your name to be on the "cool" side as well but tbh I'm not expecting much.)

 

[Atilla]

Well, I do rates, generally, which may include cash bonds (incl linkers), futures, options, etc. I am not RM and I sure as hell don't work for no bank. Generally, we don't have to look at bonds, certainly not to begin with, given the unfamiliar territory. I am pretty sure we don't have to and we could find a trade to look at that's a lot closer to home.

I too would be interested. If you could provide the ISIN code will aim to do some look ups and follow it through.

Will this be a live trade that you will be taking or an example?