Gold calls.Long term -medium term and intraday calls in gold is here !.

[TheKeks]

Is there Anyone waiting for correct levels to buy physical gold with 5-6 year holding ?

I bought with the idea of such long term view, but am considering riding short term ups and downs when possible along the way now. For me short term ups and downs means a change of 50 or so. Managed to buy recently at 880 and then 980 and still holding unfortunately :-0. Want to buy again soon while price looks low and cash in at 850 before waiting for the new low that you forecast at 650 ish.

I buy through Bullion Vault and they seem to be trying to pin the recent downs on bulk selling by banks, which they suggest is ending now. Any opinion on this? I am personally getting the impression that they always seem to predict a pick up to generate more sales on their site.

Central Banks Sell, Gold Plunges | Gold News

 

[sujithsstorock]

Heh Sujith, i know you watch copper a lot, just wondering what you think of this chart?

A bullish triangle has formed, but is sitting on the bottom, support. But if it holds copper should rally the height of triangle to over 550!

Also Aluminium holding on to support too, as there was a gap in Feb just below where it is now.

I think its interesting to see the base metals right at major supprt levels, at the same time we have crude unable to break below 110.

Should we hold and bounce, maybe Q4 will be a much stronger commodities rally than people suspect right now.

wonderful . Excellent buddy 🙂

your blue line showing the support is good.Your starting point,that is the lowest point is perfect.But the triangular formation seems to be bigger than actually drawn.

I will explain on number basis, your first point lying around 280 is perfect.Second support shown is present one. That is at 325.But if you draw a horizontal line at 300, you will get a support band seen.

So nutshell is,looking at your chart,i see 300 coming more likely.And 300 to be holding.One should sell copper at 322 with stoploss 326 and target 301.

But having said that,sentiments are too much bearish and that creates a fear for up rally.This is most likely at present scenario.A slight correction to 333 can come if 325 holds,as you suggest.

And here is where i am confused. The foresaid support which you indicated will hold or not ?

Then what would it take for crude to screw a hole it 110 $ and kiss 107 $-the bottom that i foresee.

At short term outlook,all are standing on support.Someone or the other should respect the support and go up.

 

[sujithsstorock]

I bought with the idea of such long term view, but am considering riding short term ups and downs when possible along the way now. For me short term ups and downs means a change of 50 or so. Managed to buy recently at 880 and then 980 and still holding unfortunately :-0. Want to buy again soon while price looks low and cash in at 850 before waiting for the new low that you forecast at 650 ish.

I buy through Bullion Vault and they seem to be trying to pin the recent downs on bulk selling by banks, which they suggest is ending now. Any opinion on this? I am personally getting the impression that they always seem to predict a pick up to generate more sales on their site.

Central Banks Sell, Gold Plunges | Gold News

i can see the logic with which you bought at 980$ and 880 $.The mind set was positive,but oil ruined your plan.

I hope u will be able to hold your investment for long .730-40 $ as all are predicting, is tough to get.Its just because all are favour one more dip to 740 $ and there seems an agreement over it.The same scenario was created when gold was at 950 $ and target new high. 😉

august is pretty much a bearish month for gold.Shine will come in gold around september last week , starting from second week of september.

A consolidation should be seen in daily opening and closing chart, inorder to confirm a buy signal in physical.

For now it's just wait.As physical trading is not a one night affair for profit.Here patience is always tested.

As for that fundamental reason of banks selling the gold which brought gold down n the like news . . . I will make an article which should explain how sentiments drive the market rather than news.

 

[sujithsstorock]

GOLD jOURNEY THIS YEAR . . . Logic using SENTIMENTS And EMOTIONS !

Gold journey till 1033 $ . . . When gold crossed the barrier of 1000 $,take a common mans outlook. It crossed 1000 $ every data,news coming out is predicting 2000 $ by year end . . . Atleast 1100 $ is a surest sure.Lets buy.

When u are so simple convinced about it . . . Similar logic will all others use.May be 80 % of people out there thought the same.

One should remember that,when one buys a futures contract,other one sells it.His mind set is favouring a fall while yours is favouring a bull run.But when majority is in bullish view,sellers are diminished.Confirming a bull,all you people are compelled to buy at the price where seller sells . . Very low.Thus minority wins here.


It caused a sell off till 850 $. End of part 1 .

Part 2

consolidation began. Range was 850$ to 880 $. Those holding physical n all at 1000 $ region. . . There hopes got killed.They think as 900 $ is not getting crossed,and all are talking about 800 $,i will ride the down move when it touches 880 $.And he sells off his 1000 $ holding at 880 $. While those who are new entry think they will ride from 850 $ till 1000 $ back.This leads to mixture of feelings and consolidation occurs.No one knows where exactly we are going to ? End of part 2

some news,data like US weakening n the like breaks out.900 $ broken.Here we come new highs in gold.I should buy right now ?No lets 950 $ cross. That should confirm it.So all got bullish again.Majority got bullish again.Anyone out there thinking of 800 $ anywhere?Nope.Result ? Minority won.You got to buy at lower rate.Prices fell drastically to 880$ back.

Majority still holding the buy from 980 $ n stuff.And there is a hope, 850 $ should hold.So again buy and average here at 880 $.Again sellers low at this low level and averaging in addition to buying continue. This was the affect of 850 $.This sentimental affect lead to break of 850 $.


Was there anyone who kept an buy order below 850 to be bought ? Nope. Next support levels is 825 $ totally unexpected fall.Fall was so furious,people waited to buy new around 825 $ this lead to 805 $.Now confirmed 800 $ should hold.Sellers booked profit. Buyers entered new buyers and those holding started averaging again.


Today 785 $.800 $ broken.All those bulls are loosing hope of staying in.All are talking of 730 $ now as 800 $ broken and journey back to 1000 $ is too big a task.All those holding buy will exit with lose or due to margin call.


Here comes the future . . . . 800 $ broken above.People get doubtful.Is it the time to buy? Risky ones will buy and safe ones will wait till 850 $ to buy. Those still lingering in the world of 730 $ as target will still believe its coming.Sellers will sell on rise.This causes a consolidation between 780 to 825 $.

Then in september as usual gold demand rises,825 $ broken . . 850 $ broken or a small dip , then again up and 900 $ here we come. 🙂 all buyers re enter.

Then let time tell to where price goes 🙂

ofcourse i don't have any proof .Its all upto your senses to believe or just write it off saying 'nonsense'.Anything accepted 🙂

 

[luvtub]

Great essay/analysis; really enjoyed reading it! (I'd press the star button, but apparently I have to "spread some Reputation around" first.)

So do you feel that the minority eventually tends to win? Seems reasonable in a bull market anyway...

 

[sujithsstorock]

Great essay/analysis; really enjoyed reading it! (I'd press the star button, but apparently I have to "spread some Reputation around" first.)

So do you feel that the minority eventually tends to win? Seems reasonable in a bull market anyway...

In a healthy bull market you always get corrections which keep people guessing and eventually won't make market biased.For this,market rally n moves should be slow.It should chances to both long term or short term investor.

If rally is a fast one,like the ongoing fall.200 $ within 4 weeks is not good.Its a clear bearish bias which was created due to bulls monopoly which existed before the correction started.Its just an pendulum effect. The thing is . . . . Balance should be maintained.

 

[si1503]

I feel the odds are with Gold falling further, and Oil breaking the 110 over the next couple of days, when it does it will probably trigger a lot of exits and fall with some momentum I image. If you are holding long positions I would be careful, we are in a downtrend still LH and LL. The strengthing dollar is also making commodities relatively cheaper which is accelerating the downward pressure, currency moves can last from several months to several years! This will keep prices down potentially for the next year I feel. Until the downtrend is broken the least path of resistance is lower. 110 is on a 38.5 fib on oil hence the support at this level over the past week. The 50% fib is 99.8ish which is where I see crude heading next. This is supported from a fundamental and technical view. Happy trading.

 

[mkd36cal]

hi hllo

 

[sujithsstorock]

hi hllo

hi hello. 🙂 welcome here.

 

[sujithsstorock]

Deadly risky. Sell gold at 795.8 $.Stoploss 798.2 $.Target 792-790-788.5 $. Do in minimum quantity.Trend is up.

 

[david2008]

I come from China,but the condition is opposited,i do not know why?

 

[sujithsstorock]

Copper seems to take the support which sprawl suggested. Good call mate 🙂

 

[sujithsstorock]

Sell gold on rise. Around 803 $ with stoploss 805.5 $. Target 799-794-790-787-782 $ . Do in minimum quantity.This is a resistance call

 

[sujithsstorock]

We missed the bus.801$ traded . 🙁

new shorts can be done but with same stoploss.Target 785 $

 

[Sprawl123]

Copper seems to take the support which sprawl suggested. Good call mate 🙂

Thanks, although i think we need a close above 340 to confirm... monnday mornings can be full of nonsense.

Take a look at wti chart... looks like it has run out of room to move sideways, either has to break below 110, or break higher via close at around 116
Additionally EUR is now very close to its long term uptrend-line (connecting 22-feb-06, 13-oct-06) currently at low 1.46xx.

All in all I think we are too close to support to be selling (yes I know you have heard this 1000 times over last few weeks, but this is the first time I will say it - OVERSOLD!), ie we are too oversold to be able to break crude, eur, gold, copper supports for short term, since a break would mean that we should have a significant fall to follow but i think we are out of gas.

Sujith, I havent traded any of your calls, because they have been shorting calls last couple of weeks (I shold have, as you guys have profited handsomely), but now I'm waiting for your short term long calls!! Do you think you will start any this week?

 

[sujithsstorock]

Sprawl , sorry to disappoint but am still on shorting side at every rise.

Reason ? >>USD going till 80 !.

Crude >> another round of sell off coming if goes below 110. For being bullish,i need 122 $ and above.

Copper >> it should kiss 292 .

Gold >> failing to close above 300 dma.770 $ should hold till end of this week inorder to make me bullish.

silver>> this idiot is screaming for 9 $ 🙁 .

 

[Sprawl123]

Fair enough, you are probably right...

All these supports may give way, I just thought we may see a bounce first.

I will stay out of mkt for now and watch your calls.

You have any medium term views? now till year end, say?

 

[Sprawl123]

1 other major support i forgot ro mention: platinum

please see weekly chart

 

[sujithsstorock]

Hmmm,i go on seasonn view. Like in first page of this thread i mention about this august fall.

This is the last week for bears to display their maximum strength.Bottom should be set this week (or 772 $ was the bottom and this week its consolidation between 780 and 825 $)

september ending should give the usual demand rise and 900 $-950 is probable.

But 653 $ coming , faster the better. That should wind up the bears for coming few years.And u can ride the entire bull without a re-thinking.If not now,this 653 $ gets postponded for next year.Go long here.

Those who got many more bullets left to fire, can buy one here at 790's , then one at 750, 730,660,610 all these are places to add long position in physical.

 

[sujithsstorock]

That platinum chart looks terrific. If 1500 crossed and closed above, it should give 1700 easily.

Having said that, you will find a band of support lines all the way down till 1250.It would be difficult to predict which one will be respected.(i feel that spike between october06 n jan07 will be the support).Just my view.Good chart mate. 🙂

can you please give the steps,how to upload this 100kb size charts ? Mine are above 3mb in size n can't upload due to low net speed.