Gold 2013 ......a lack lustre year?

[Joules MM1]

another anecdotal "eek" chart


Fed and Bank of Japan caused gold crash
Commodity prices have been falling since September,
culminating in a rout over the past two weeks.
That is a classic warning for the global economy.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
7:22PM BST 17 Apr 2013

link: Fed and Bank of Japan caused gold crash - Telegraph

 

[Joules MM1]

sentient pov

video

Gold Price Now Represents Better Value: Video - Bloomberg

 

[Pat494]

Rothschild to pull out of gold market after 200 years
By James Moore
12:01AM BST 15 Apr 2004
Comment
The investment bank that has chaired the London meetings setting the world gold price since 1919 is quitting the market.

NM Rothschild will withdraw from all its commodity trading activities, which also include an oil trading business set up less than two years ago, as part of a strategic review.

The move brings to an end nearly 200 years of tradition. NM Rothschild was founded in London in 1810 by Nathan Mayer Rothschild, who helped finance the Duke of Wellington's army in the Napoleonic wars through gold trading.

The company hosts and chairs twice-daily meetings which effectively set the world's gold price. The meetings are held in a plush chamber in the bank's offices at St Swithin's Lane in the City. The other four firms involved are Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Canada's Scotia Bank and Societe Generale.

During the fixes, telephone lines are kept open to trading rooms where dealers are in touch with customers. Potential price movements are unlimited and the fix has been known to take up to two hours, although it is usually over in a matter of minutes.


What they are saying is they can't make enough money out of the gold markets. Should get in touch with some T2W ers ?

 

[Joules MM1]

Rothschild to pull out of gold market

blame the Lannisters .....

(that was my best a-big-fat-who-cares)

 

[Joules MM1]

imho

there is a technique used by conspiracy theorists that goes like this: show evidence, irrefutable evidence, then present the evidence as causal to how it might not only hurt the viewer but how the opposite will benefit the viewer, the theorist has now made the viewer a witness and the witness is now emotionally tied to the defense of the opinion which they have unwittingly made their own

this is how bulls and bears both get trapped in (oversized) positions



there are some fantastic (sic) articles around today, reasoning the current phase of pricing

here's one from an urban legend

there's a subtle unsaid message in many "unbiased" texts and none as obvious as in this one

from a technical point of view, in a downtrend, major moves down are viewed by ardent bulls as just a fantastic swoon with which to gobble a bargain, the question is, how low does price have to travel before "bargain" becomes "burden" ?

US Mint Sells Record 63,500 Ounces Of Gold In One Day | Zero Hedge

 

[Joules MM1]

1403.7
the squeez that's worth waiting for......especially if it looks like a fake break out and price comes back into the range then new shorters will come in and they'll be suckered into thinking it's all a selling game.......boom!

which would be nice....

 

[cablemonster]

Lololol 1425 printed. Squeeky bum time.

 

[Liquid validity]

I doubt there are many institutional players that care what the price of gold is.
Most of them will be arbing gold/silver anyway:

Gold and Silver Spread Arbitrage - Tyler Lewis - Seeking Alpha
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5985.html
Trading The Gold-Silver Ratio

 

[Joules MM1]

Short-Covering or the Biggest Average-Down in History

Joshua M Brown
April 21st, 2013

two excerpts, two opposing, large-size, pov's:

Fund managers and other speculators increased net-long positions in gold by 9.8 percent to 61,579 futures and options in the
week ended April 16, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.

Paulson & Co. said in a letter to clients last week, joiningBlackRock Inc. (BLK), the world’s biggest money manager,
in predicting a rebound.

“Given the price action, this rise in holdings was pretty surprising,” said Dan Denbow, a fund manager at the $1 billion USAA
Precious Metals & Minerals Fund in San Antonio. “People may have been looking to get back into the market and are taking
advantage of the price to do so. There are people who still have a long-term belief in it. Physical buyers have also stepped up.”

Here's what Stanley Crouch says:

While the net-long position in gold climbed last week, most of the gain was attributable to a retreat in short holdings
rather than an increase in long wagers. The divergence shows that the gain in the net position may reflect short traders
taking profit, rather than investors becoming more bullish, according to Stanley Crouch, who helps oversee $2 billion as
chief investment officer at New York-based Aegis Capital Corp.

“Sometimes you have to peel the onion when you look at this data,” Crouch said. “It looks like that after such a big
drop, people who were short were ready to take their gains. That might also be why the price stabilized, and it could mean
that it’s even more vulnerable now.”

 

[Joules MM1]

@1420's we appear to be in whooshka mode

dont let your mis-sizing kill you

 

[Joules MM1]

central banks, customer of last resort...

twitfestation

Bank of Korea increased #gold holdings by 24% in Feb. to 104.4 tons

 

[Joules MM1]

something for the oh-sure-that's-interesting file

https://twitter.com/joulesmm1/status/326287905209331713/photo/1

 

[Joules MM1]

April 22, 2013 12:52 pm

Asian bargain hunters pile into gold

By Josh Noble and Julie Zhu in Hong Kong

Asian bargain hunters pile into gold - FT.com

excerpt

“In terms of volume, I haven’t seen this gold rush for over 20 years,” he told the Financial Times on Monday, adding that the exchange only had about 20 1kg bars, and 100 five-tael bars left in its inventory. “Older members who have been in the business for 50 years haven’t seen such a thing.”

an interesting write ......along with all the other retail purchase writes since the (todate) largest decline

imho, a perspective for balance: a huge sale of soil tilling equipment for the gardner doesn't imply that (CAT) Caterpiller sales of earth-movers is suddenly on the rise.......

 

[Joules MM1]

breaking and holding overnight at 1421 adds considerable weight to the bounce being over

 

[cascabel559]

Great educational posting, thanks, and keep up the good work!

 

[Joules MM1]

breaking and holding overnight at 1421 adds considerable weight to the bounce being over

incorrect.....

tad overkeen there ......this summary provides a higher probability call based on orthodox view....lulz, sorry, no dom......

#study

https://twitter.com/joulesmm1/status/326369008267976704/photo/1

I thought the whooshka trap would be sprung today, being a Monday, with short term overzealous shorters getting stung maybe even on the homesales, but no...sorta kinda had some tiny swings that looked like the go ......trojans.........hmmmmm.......curious

 

[Joules MM1]

i think i've read every fundamental and theoretical bullish argument there is....and while most fundamental protagonists might argue that charting is a waste of time they should not ignore current pricing versus historic pricing as printed, especially if they truly believe the historic rite of passage has a future, looking at the most recent history might make them re-evaluate their holding, even if it's to simply recalc the balance of portfolio

anyways, a generic technical view not too indifferent to many opposing generic fundamental views

 

[Atilla]

i think i've read every fundamental and theoretical bullish argument there is....and while most fundamental protagonists might argue that charting is a waste of time they should not ignore current pricing versus historic pricing as printed, especially if they truly believe the historic rite of passage has a future, looking at the most recent history might make them re-evaluate their holding, even if it's to simply recalc the balance of portfolio

anyways, a generic technical view not too indifferent to many opposing generic fundamental views

I think some people simply buy or sell because they think the price is too high or dropped so much.

Equally matching some people talking about gold going over 3000 there are some talking about it's collapse to 800 or lower.

I think we have quite a bit of consolidation to take place with probably moves between 1200s - 1600s yet and may well hover around 1450s for some time.

I can't see gold falling much lower than 1000 though just purely because it is a beautifully round number.

 

[kittycriston]

It's been a torrid week for gold bugs. This time last week gold saw its biggest price falls for 30 years. However as the graph below shows, this has to be set against the phenomenal growth of recent years.

 

[Pat494]

It's been a torrid week for gold bugs. This time last week gold saw its biggest price falls for 30 years. However as the graph below shows, this has to be set against the phenomenal growth of recent years.

Er yes but...........where is the graph ????
If you don't mind me asking ?