Scraping The Barrel and Fool's Gold

frugi said:
WG,

So much negativity you'd worry a power station if you walked by it. :) Do you never have anything positive to say or is your life's mission to try and convince everyone with interminable repetition that most traders lose money? We know this already, so perhaps it's time to move on? BTW I'd stake a lot of money on Chris not being among them, far from it in fact.


look frugi ,

you are adult enough to know that very few things in trading are " positive " , it's a hard game and even harder when there are numerous snakeoil salesmen breathing down the necks of unsuspecting people .

many on this board have been stung before ,and I think in this context , I AM being terribly positive .

so if you think he is so great , have you bought his system . so what are the returns over capital since you used it ?

I bet I could beat JB in a trading contest anyday .
 
you have still AVOIDED the question , let me rephrse :

what are your returns over you risk capital net comms, tax etc , over 2 years or since you've been using your so called system ( scraping only ) ?


I knew you would respond the way you did . So , let's do this : unless you give a definitive answer to the question , I will assume your silence to confirm the fact that you have not used your own scraping to any degree of success. We will NOT go round and round in circles . sorry I and we see this coming a mile away.

other related and non related points :

- Please do NOT try to pass off non trade related charts as real trading . this is offensive and demeaning to the rest of the board.

- in 45 mins. I usually make over 50% on my winners never mind a piddly 7 % .

- R:R on a PER TRADE basis is wins - costs over stop loss . nothing to do with W/L ratios.
so according to the one trade that you published would be win = 19 , SL = 24 , thus reward : risk ratio = 0.79 , which is pretty crap in my book.

- The options loss was a completely seperate trade from my usual futures system , it was an experiment and so I was completely prepared for the losses . it was a come what may " trade " , It was even in a SEPERATE account to my mainstay futures one.

My futures system yielded 9/10 x my risk capital and this is in REAL money not " generated " by some bogus software .

This is a irrelevant issue , do NOT red herring the discussion ,if you want some of this , have the testicular fortitude to start a new thread .

- listen kid, if my R:R is 4,5 : 1 , on a per trade basis , that means I have a stop loss and that means when if the price hits the SL level , I am OUT , taking a loser . do you understand this basic concept?

- some one who makes 6x their capital is 10 x better than someone who makes 200 x their capital in
software " generated " trades .

when you can do the real thing , come back and maybe I'll give you some tuition if the price is right.

This is my last post to you , unless you answer the question in a straightforward non
" software generated " manner . Other than that I can see that you nethier want to address the issue or have anything salient to contribute . I do not engage in word master#$tion , if you wish to do so , then do it on your own .

thank you and good bye .
 
Sorry Wiseguy but nothing of what you say makes any sence at all and you are constantly contradicting yourself.

For example
- in 45 mins. I usually make over 50% on my winners never mind a piddly 7 %
I really must see one of these trades. In 471 posts you have made I have not seen a single actual trade posted yet I have posted dozens of trades, contract notes and statements.

If it only takes you 45 minutes to make a 50% return on your capital why did it take you 2 years to achieve 10X profit. It would only take 6 trades and 4 hours 30 minutes to do what you say.
2000
1 3000 0:45 50
2 4500 1:30 50
3 6750 2:15 50
4 10125 3:00 50
5 15188 3:45 50
6 22781 4:30 50
- R:R on a PER TRADE basis is wins - costs over stop loss . nothing to do with W/L ratios.
The Reward/Risk ratio is not what you want it to be, it should be a measure of performance of the actual method and a reading over a series of trades should be taken to obtain a realistic appraisal. Thus the correct formula is Average Win/Average loser, both of course are net of any costs.
If you take just one trade into account the R/R results will vary wildly, on the other hand if you take a reading over 1000 trades and the system starts losing it may not alter the average enough to become apparant soon enough. I think a reading over the last 60-100 trades would be good, would be interesting to see what others think.

Yes the R/R has nothing to do with the W/L, but the 2 together will give the expectancy of a particular system. What DIDN'T you say your W/L ratio was?
- some one who makes 6x their capital is 10 x better than someone who makes 200 x their capital in
software " generated " trades .
Agree, but why do you keep going on about software generated trades, you have seen my actual contract notes and statements.
I bet I could beat JB in a trading contest anyday .
You probably could by making 50% in 45mins (if true), I cannot compete with that, it has taken me about 4 hours to get that sort of return in the past. But I am still up for it.
Good idea though, as all financial sites say "past performance is not guarrantee future performance"
We should organise on T2W with everyone putting in $10 and the the winner takes all less say 10% for Sharky.

You did not say what your book was called, I could do with some kindling.

I have just worked out why you have laughed so much on this thread. They say ignorance is bliss and there is nobody blisser than you.

Good luck with your trading, you will need it.
 
There are those that would have everyone believe that it is commonplace to achieve returns of 4:1 or more on a regular basis from individual trades, unless I am missing something this does not occur as regularly as they would have us believe. Maybe they obtain such returns one in twenty times but to pretend that this is the norm is stretching the truth a bit. To try and use this to rubbish strategies that yield much lower returns per trade is incredulous. Traders will and should adopt different strategies and trade different instruments; it is not a case of one size fits all.

I have always adopted a strategy of risking more than my returns per trade and I am quite satisfied with the results. In saying that, I also have the odd trade that returns 3 to 10 times more than the original risk factor but, I don not view them as the norm but rather as icing on the cake. Furthermore, there are a few of us that are very particular about win/loss ratios and compounding our profits over time. Whilst more might be risked in nominal terms, the losses remain constant in percentages. That is something you learn to live with and accept.

All businesses grow by re investing profits to expand, why should an individual trader be any different? I was under the impression that the bulge bracket financial houses are constantly re investing profits (compounding) in order to grow ever bigger; their shareholders demand such action otherwise the CEO gets fired for being unambitious. In so doing they accept and take on much bigger risks in nominal terms but less in real terms.

Compounding does not mean you increase risk Dollar for Dollar.
 
SCRAPING
-----------------

I think it is appropriate to sum up what we have so far :

1) When the very crucial point of why scraping + compounding was NOT recommended by any star trader , the reply from it's major proponent ( call him X ) was that he thought these were banking people !

Anyone who knows anything about trading knows who the stars in this game are - the Ed Seykotas , Tudor jones' , Randy Mackays , Monroe trouts , hedges , etc of this world .

Ignorance of this fact speaks volumes about X

if scraping was so great , do you all not think the MW's would have been talking about it ?
OF COURSE . the fact is they do NOT because they have no use for it .

2) Compounding : in this context , I gather its means adding your wins to your next stake to increase it so you can eventually trade BIG .

This is simply increasing the number of lots traded , using wins to build up capital to the desired amounts. Another term for this is : UNDERFUNDED , something specifically the wizards specifically advised against .

if you want to trade 10 lots then jolly well have the margins for such , otherwise , you will face the damaging psychological fact of having wins but no way to withdraw and enjoy the money , as it will be left in your trading account . very bad , since , whatever you win to day could be all whipped away by losses tommorrow .

It could take you forvever to increase your stake . the market never behaves the way you want and never moves consistently whether you want it to trend or go sideways .

this is a basic fact that only newbies ignore.

I have overcome this problem by using SB's , yes you got that right SBs . they may have their problems but they have their uses as well , their margins are lower and there are ways to increase your size substantially w/o more margins.

3) low W:Ls + high Rew:Risks vs. the vice versa :

I believe and have acheived large gains over time using the above . How ? very simple - if I make 10 trades and 3 are winners that make 100 pts each but lose 7 trades of 15 each , then my overall Rew : risk = 300 / 105 which just less than 3:1.

but if I have 7 wins of 15 and 3 loses of 20 , then my R:R is 105/60 just less than 2:1 .

3:1 beats 2:1 , simple .

don't forget also that the high returns system has the oft added advantage of early success , thereby giving a big psychologcal boost of cash in hand , leaving you the option of shuting down totally with something in hand if you feel the market stinks.
even if you hit a bad patch at start , you can still shut down , switch to another market or just wait til things return to the way you like .

this is where PER TRADE R:R is important so long as your SLs are real , as you then have the vital tool of shutting down . you can limit the losses on a trade by trade basis , a point lost to most scrapers.

wheres with the low return system , you cannot do that , at the start at least you have to keep going to increase your stake , thereby increasing stress and usually lowering performance .

trading is stressful already w/o your own system adding to it.

4) stop losses : following the above , the use of stops is crucial .

in the high returns game , the stop is usually set and left alone til either the trade goes in the money or it gets hit .

in scraping , X will have a max. stop of 17 pts , but his $ losses are usually less than this , why ? because he " manages " it , he will exit the trade before it gets hit . why ? why have a SL and not use it ?

the reason is that short term volatility can be severe. just becasue you think you have entered a good set up don't mean much especially in forex . it can whip around 20/30 tics no sweat . thus , with a 17 pt SL , he cannot afford to have this happen too many times . if it happens 4x in a row he is down some 70+ pts ( comms inclsve) , that's a lot in a short space of time .

so he has to fiddle the stops , get out when his gut tells him , that's why all this talk about gut feel .

why not then have smaller SLs ? because then he runs the risk of every trade being stopped out , since the volitility is so great . keep getting stopped out = LOSE.

the problem is that the market will often do this before it settles in a nice range or trends away , that's just the way it goes . thus if you don't let the market swing a little , you may never get the move you desire.

therefore the SL is not a real SL , though it is keyed in , it is RESERVE SL , before which he plays with it . second guessing the market is extremely difficult.


5) the only way I can even envisage how scraping would work well enough for me would be that it ACTUALLY actually produces a very high % number of winners in real trades and not ones generated by a SIMULATOR.

Therefore a real record of such is needed to prove this dubious theory .

X 's in reply to this gives simulated wins , SIMULATED not real . can you believe that ? if that's the case why stop at 54x return on cap . why not go for 540 ?

then to follow up , he gives trades statements for a COUPLE of trades which he makes a R:R of about 1:1 and this is supposed to prove his claims !

since when do 2 trades represent a sustained period . hell if that's the case I can show you individual trades that have made me 9:1 R:R . waste of time really.

Of what real evidence there is : 50% return over risk cap , in 6 months seems to be the best for him and another . OK , but hardly the super profits he'd like us to believe . after taxes , you could not live on this if you were full time trading.

Some may say it's better than a kick up the behind and they can accept it - fine , but for the time , effort , risk , and to me that'snot worth it .

So if there are any replies to specific issues or new observations then I will continue to respond but otherwise I am done as I think we do not want any of the repetitous drone that seems to have palgued us so far .
 
wisestguy........you come across as a total idiot.
Anyhow, scraping as you term it is a very profitable and risk free way of trading for those of us who do it on a daily basis.Naturally, the sceptics abound but most are probably not successful traders.I'd hazard to guess that you are amongst this motley band of underachievers.

My ''scraping' trades as you term them, range from £50,000 to £700,000 every day.Naturally , I have losers but in the main ,I win far more than I lose.The scraping of a 1/4p-2p in a trade has proved most lucrative.I know 3 other good traders who trade in a similiar style to myself ,albeit in smaller sizes,who are all very successful.
I'm sure that there are quite a few similar styled daytrading scalpers to myself on T2W who trade the US markets rather than the UK as I do.I've no doubt that the good ones would consider it highly unlikely that they would ever lose over any monthly period ,in any type of market.
I'd suggest that if you want to make a good six figure career as a trader, you should consider it rather than dismiss it .Since you've been trading just a couple of years, you are still '' wet behind the ears'' in my view.
 
Wiseguy my good fellow, what a load of poppycock, I cannot believe a word that you say for example;
in 45 mins. I usually make over 50% on my winners never mind a piddly 7 %
You only need to make just 1.2% per day over 250 trading days to achieve 300% per annun which is the same you said that you made, so why do you say that 7% is piddly.

7% daily over the same period is 1,700%, if this is piddly what is your 300%p.a. then. Oh but I forgot you make 50% in 45 minutes that's 12,500% p.a., so why did you make just 300%, I am confused.
if scraping was so great , do you all not think the MW's would have been talking about it ?
OF COURSE . the fact is they do NOT because they have no use for it .
If you can show me one of your gurus that have made more than 5400% return on total capital invested in 4 weeks then you may have a point. If you do show genuine results and prove me wrong I will leave trade2win forever, if you cannot you should do the same.
if you want to trade 10 lots then jolly well have the margins for such , otherwise , you will face the damaging psychological fact of having wins but no way to withdraw and enjoy the money , as it will be left in your trading account . very bad , since , whatever you win to day could be all whipped away by losses tommorrow .
I did not say reinvest all of your winnings, if you go back and read you will see that I like to take money out every month and took OUT 20x my original capital over 4 weeks.
It could take you forvever to increase your stake . the market never behaves the way you want and never moves consistently whether you want it to trend or go sideways .
It could take forever or it may not, depends on the system. I don't think roughly £200 to £11,000 in for weeks is that long unless you can make the fictional amount of 50% in 45 minutes that you pretend.
[QUOTE3) low W:Ls + high Rew:Risks vs. the vice versa :

I believe and have acheived large gains over time using the above . How ? very simple - if I make 10 trades and 3 are winners that make 100 pts each but lose 7 trades of 15 each , then my overall Rew : risk = 300 / 105 which just less than 3:1.

but if I have 7 wins of 15 and 3 loses of 20 , then my R:R is 105/60 just less than 2:1 .

3:1 beats 2:1 , simple . [/QUOTE]
I notice how you have to twist the figures to make you look good, this is a common trick of these banking/ivestment sorts. I received a flyer from my my pension provider the PRU saying how they have out performed the FTSE by 40% in the last 5 years, then why did my fund drop 10% 2 years ago. If you read closer it said the FTSE dropped 16% and they made 24% over the same period, this is less than 5% per year. But WG say's 7% in one day is piddly?????
To remind you WG you said
So now we come to the fool's gold part . we see a lot of " systems " hyped as giving 90% winning trades , and usually they advocate scraping as the method of choice.
If you use your original figure of 90% you will have 9 wins of 15 and 1 loser of 20 (you have increased this also to make it look worse.) then your R:R is 135/20 6.75:1
6.75:1 beats 2:1 oooh and is more than twice the return of 3:1
in scraping , X will have a max. stop of 17 pts , but his $ losses are usually less than this , why ? because he " manages " it , he will exit the trade before it gets hit . why ? why have a SL and not use it ?
Not so, I trade a system and get an exit signal, this is usually profitable but can be a loss. I would rather have 3 losers of 1,5 and 11 points than 3 stops at 17 each.
the reason is that short term volatility can be severe. just becasue you think you have entered a good set up don't mean much especially in forex . it can whip around 20/30 tics no sweat . thus , with a 17 pt SL , he cannot afford to have this happen too many times . if it happens 4x in a row he is down some 70+ pts ( comms inclsve) , that's a lot in a short space of time
Don't know who this is about, I trade the Dow.
So if there are any replies to specific issues or new observations then I will continue to respond but otherwise I am done as I think we do not want any of the repetitous drone that seems to have palgued us so far .
. I do not engage in word master#$tion , if you wish to do so , then do it on your own .

thank you and good bye .
Is that why you will not tell what your win ratio, there is no need to be embarassed and run away but if you are not will to answer any questions please be a gentleman wiseguy and keep to your word.
 
wisestguy said:
you as a fan and buyer of JB's system may not like that but you will have to accept that otehrs will never swallow slaes hype wholesale without proof.


erm, i beg your pardon? i have never purchased said system, thanks for asking.

i am just defending the sound, and fundamentally correct points that Chris/Juan has been making.

please dont make things up. it only makes you look foolish.

FC
 
Too late

FetteredChinos said:
erm, i beg your pardon? i have never purchased said system, thanks for asking.

i am just defending the sound, and fundamentally correct points that Chris/Juan has been making.

please dont make things up. it only makes you look foolish.FC

:cheesy:
 
I always judge the truth of a post by how strong the reaction is .

From this , I can see that I have stomped on a lot of losers' little tootsies , as the claims seem to be wilder and wilder - 700,000 a day my a#$e .

He doesn't even know the difference between scalping and scraping . not only an idiot but a clown .

As I said - nothing but repititious ma$#@%bation.
 
That's a step too far wg. You have shown nothing but negativity and aggression towards other members and now choose to be insulting as well, not for the first time I might add. You have been given a fair chance imho. Bye ...
 
looks like you cant even spell masturbation. less punctuation next time.

im not entirely sure what drum you are beating or even why.

can you put us out of our misery now and please expound the reason for your first post on this thread. or was it purely to discuss semantics? in which case im more than happy to throw down my leather gloves and flying helmet and take up battle.

FC
 
I've stayed out of this thread as Wisestguy has been spoiling for a fight from joining and he has always been very aggressive, he had a go at me when he first joined and I felt it wasn't worth bothering with again which is a shame as he makes the occasional good point but there is no place for rudeness we are here to help each other and I have learnt an enormous amount and met many good traders through t2win by respecting peoples views and treating people as I would wish to be treated.

So I am pleased to see WG banned, please don't come back.
 
FetteredChinos said:
i think we were about to start discussing the role of secret fib numbers when scalping...

Did someone mention secret fibs. I've got some for sale on special offer............oh hang on wrong thread
 
Well done frugi for dealing with a bully

The majority of his posts were negative and aggressive, he also upset Mr.Marcus sometime ago who was doing a great job helping/training quite a few individuals.

His type of arguing with nothing factual to back things up would only lead to confusion to newbies who may need help.

I would think that it is difficult to ban people, but I think that you have made T2W a better place.
 
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