Gold 2011/12

I started buying physical gold at $300. At one time was 50% red and did not sweat.
Futures are very risky because the fact is gold will go up an average of about 8% a year. so 8% of 1550 would have us at 1674.
No one "KNOWS" is the true answer imho.
 
goldluvr said:
Futures are very risky because the fact is gold will go up an average of about 8% a year. so 8% of 1550 would have us at 1674.
Click to expand...

why does the/your 'fact' that gold will go up on average 8% a year make futures 'very risky'?
 
Ha, prob, surely he doesn't need to talk his book if he's in @ 300. Just not sure why price rises (fact or not) make the future risky, thought he' may be implying that its risky if they took delivery or smthg cos there's not enough to go about. Who knows.
 
Sounds like a similar thing ZH were pushing last year regarding Silver.

JP Morgan had lost 'control' of the 'paper' market and there were shortages just around the corner as the Silver bubble inflated to $50.

We all know how that ended lol.
 
Hmmn I geuss if you bought gold anytime today you would be fine imo but buying futures at 1700 would have you not too happy.
Just look at thr 30 day moveing average and you will see when to buy and when to sell.
In short buy below the average and selling above the average would make you simply "better than average" LOL
 
goldluvr said:
In short buy below the average and selling above the average would make you simply "better than average" LOL
Click to expand...
Yep it really is that easy.

Still avoided my question re your vague statement.
 
IMO risky because most new traders are not smart enough to use a stop loss.
Why do I say such a thing. I have seen hundreds blow up $50,000 accounts tradeing gold futures.But the smart ones who bought physical still have their gold.
 
yes gold is an investment for me so 50% of the gold I bought at $300 I sold at 1800, not a bad trade.
I am very new to futures tradeing only have traded since 2008 and although 2008 was a terrible year for me 2011 was worth it.
 
new_trader said:
08:56 Gold @ $1706.00

:LOL::LOL:

deer_in_the_headlights_by_clubpenguinsandwich-d3l9bsx.png
Click to expand...


2nd Nov, Gold @ $1670

Rejection of 1800 yet again does not bode well for gold bulls.

Didn't post it up on here but I did add another short @1715. Two trades doing nicely...

Strategy of shorting the gold rises still in play.
 
Atilla said:
Second limit order cancelled.

Only the first live trade stands.

Also, live trade SL amended to 1760.

First order - Sell @ 1720.00, Target @ 1620.00, SL @ 1760.00

Will look to adding to short if gold fall below 1700 again.
Click to expand...


2nd Nov - gold @ 1678
Applying Trailing SL +50.

First order - Sell @ 1720.00, Target @ 1620.00, Trailing SL @ 1730.00
 
rsh01 said:
re a lot of work for the post? if you count going back 8 pages reading vacuous statements as a lot of work then pity you. however, the editing part was in fact quite tricky - what do i/dont i include, too many to choose from.

do you want me to edit in the dates? if you're serious i can do this easily. i only went back to page 9 for the quotes - which is approx mid june 2012 - you know where price went sideways for the next 2 & a bit mths. reading anymore of you posts in one go makes me queasy.

you clearly hadnt noticed.....the dates are fairly immaterial - thats why i didnt bother to put them in - the post was highlighting your flawed knowledge on fundamentals, & your arrogant nature......which you have consistently filled this thread with. do you want me to repeat these - your flawed statements & the "this will happen" stuff, examples are in my preceding post so pls go back to that.

oh ok, heres one, posted aug 15th:



:clap::clap::clap:

p.s. i have just seen your last post admitting an error in judgement, progress. and fwiw i agreed with your TA analysis :).
p.p.s. what i was most shocked about is both of you were having a fairly platonic discussion in a lot of posts. dont you just love forum 'banter'.
Click to expand...


You following this trade rsh01...

Make sure you make a note of the trades and dates on the changes ok.

Don't want to see none of your creative selective editing now. :)

Enjoy...
 
Just thought I would say that Wednesday/Thursday witnessed a massive frenzy (literally) of retail pm buying.

As I posted, my own analysis told me the market was still very weak but the literal euphoria made me even more confident (it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of it came from ZH articles calling a big move up and forecasting devastatingly low jobs numbers on the Friday- it is the pm crowd's darling after-all.)

The spreads I noticed on Bullionvault Silver were as large as I have seen them for a good while, and the % over spot that people were paying was insane. Those little piggies got put to slaughter, and justly so if you want to be utterly gullible.

Gold is in a trading range of 1530-1800 now. Intermediate term swing traders will be active at either end, but new and serious money will be required to take it to an upside breakout. I'm not sure what else will do that other than inflation expectations picking up significantly. QE infinity plus a plethora of other central bank QE certainly hasn't done it as many might have expected.
 
Last edited:
YouAreNotFree said:
Just thought I would say that Wednesday/Thursday witnessed a massive frenzy (literally) of retail pm buying.

As I posted, my own analysis told me the market was still very weak but the literal euphoria made me even more confident (it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of it came from ZH articles calling a big move up and forecasting devastatingly low jobs numbers on the Friday- it is the pm crowd's darling after-all.)

The spreads I noticed on Bullionvault Silver were as large as I have seen them for a good while, and the % over spot that people were paying was insane. Those little piggies got put to slaughter, and justly so if you want to be utterly gullible.

Gold is in a trading range of 1530-1800 now. Intermediate term swing traders will be active at either end, but new and serious money will be required to take it to an upside breakout. I'm not sure what else will do that other than inflation expectations picking up significantly. QE infinity plus a plethora of other central bank QE certainly hasn't done it as many might have expected.
Click to expand...

Agree regarding the trading range. Sideways move always difficult to trade. However, rejection of 1800 yet again is significant for me. Especially for the 3rd time.

Issue is when all currencies devalue against each other not much changes.

Both US and EU promised QE and bond purchases but new QE is very small (in the $20bns I read somewhere) in the US.

In Europe both Spain and Italy reluctant to borrow and pursuing with cuts and austerity measures. The facility is there if anybody wants it and this has eased market worries.

This depression is in its 5th year. I doubt it will exist much longer than 7. So the slow L type recovery continues. As the recovery continues people will pretty much forget the last 10 years.

Sad to say but I also think rebuilding programs after hurricane Sandy is likely to add to the growth numbers too.

Moreover, Latin America and Asia still have growth. This so called recession is US/EU contained imo.

Recent hype about gold - I think was brought on to mug all the Indian seasonal buyers out of their money. But you know the guy on the street is wise and knows these are silly prices.

Increasingly I am thinking gold is now a mugs game. Risk is high and reward limited. I see more risk holding the stuff than equities with promise of dividend and capital growth as economic recovery kicks in.

To buy gold now one would need to have a very long term view on it.

Anyhow we are at a 50% retracement since May's 1530 so another bounce may transpire but lacks conviction imho.
 
Be patient, cover 1/2 your short and wait and see if we can get $120 below the 30 day average (1550 area)to cover the rest .Should be a safe spot for me to buy again at 1550.
 
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